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Savills plc Results for the year ended 31 December 2018 14 March 2019

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Page 1: Savills plc/media/Files/S/Savills-IR-V3/... · 2019. 3. 14. · Ireland +35%, Portugal +80% as investors seek smaller markets • Office leasing volumes down 2% as availability tightens

Savills plc

Results for the year ended 31 December 2018

14 March 2019

Page 2: Savills plc/media/Files/S/Savills-IR-V3/... · 2019. 3. 14. · Ireland +35%, Portugal +80% as investors seek smaller markets • Office leasing volumes down 2% as availability tightens

Disclaimer: Forward-looking statements

2

These slides contain certain forward-looking statements including the Group’s financial condition, results of

operations and business, and management’s strategy, plans and objectives for the Group. These statements

are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, some of

which are beyond the Group’s control, are difficult to predict and could cause actual results to differ materially

from those expressed or implied or forecast in the forward-looking statements. These factors include, but are

not limited to, the fact that the Group operates in a highly competitive environment. All forward-looking

statements in these slides are based on information known to the Group on the date hereof. The Group

undertakes no obligation publically to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of

new information, future events or otherwise.

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Results

1 Introduction, Highlights & Business Development 2 Financial Review 3 Key Priorities &

Summary & Outlook

3

Page 4: Savills plc/media/Files/S/Savills-IR-V3/... · 2019. 3. 14. · Ireland +35%, Portugal +80% as investors seek smaller markets • Office leasing volumes down 2% as availability tightens

Introduction, Highlights & Business Development

4

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Highlights

5

Performance Overview Drivers

Group Revenue £1,761.4m

+10.1% (cc 11.4%)

Group UPBT £143.7m

+2.3% (cc 3.2%)

Transaction advisory revenues up 9% despite

challenging market conditions

Strong growth in less transactional services -

Property Management revenue up 14%,

Consultancy revenue up 8%

Growth of 35% from Europe and Middle East,

both organic growth and acquisition, including

Aguirre Newman (Spain) and Cluttons

(Middle East)

North America delivered significant growth

with revenue up 18% and underlying profit up

64%

SIM raised £2.4bn in new funds, with AUM up

12% to £16.4bn

Group UEPS 77.8p

+2.6%

Net Cash £73.9m

(2017: £98.6m)

Dividend 31.2p

+3.3%

cc = constant currency

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Savills Business Today

Top 5 Global Real Estate Adviser

Strong market share in key International markets

Balance of transactional/less transactional service lines

Leading multi-sector expertise

Brand strength and business heritage

Unique culture

Employer of choice and strong talent retention

Conservative financial structure

Provide strong returns to shareholders

…. An entrepreneurial spirit and ambition

for continued growth

‘Global Real Estate Adviser of the Year’ –EG Awards 2018

‘Deal of the Year’, ‘Residential Team of the Year’ – RICS Hong Kong Awards 2018

‘The Times Graduate Employer of Choice for Property’ – 12th year

‘No.1 Real Estate Superbrand’ –Superbrands 2018

6

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Management Changes: Succession Delivered in 2018

UK

Group CEO UK & EMEA – James Sparrow

Managing Director UK – Richard Rees

North America:

CEO – Mitch Rudin

COO – Matthew Morgan

CFO – Gerald Prager

Europe & Middle East

CEO Middle East – Steve Morgan

CEO Sweden – Niklas Sammuelson

CEO Spain – Jaime Pascual-Sanchiz

Asia Pacific

CEO Korea – Crystal Lee

CEO Singapore – Marcus Loo

India

CEO – Anurag Mathur

Group CEO – Mark Ridley

Strengthening the bench

7

Page 8: Savills plc/media/Files/S/Savills-IR-V3/... · 2019. 3. 14. · Ireland +35%, Portugal +80% as investors seek smaller markets • Office leasing volumes down 2% as availability tightens

Ten Year Revenues

8

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

£m

Transactional "Less-Transactional"

Total Revenue

£1,761.4m

Total Revenue

£560.7m

46%47%

47%

46%

48%

38%38%40%

35%

54%53%54%52%54%60%62%62%60%65%

40%

46%

46%

Percentage of Revenue

Property Management – 33%

Consultancy – 17%

Investment Management – 4%

Percentage of Revenue

Commercial Transactions – 36%

Residential Transactions – 10%

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Broad Geographic Spread

9

580Employees

Revenue

£264.5m

(15% of Total)

*Staff numbers – weighted average for 2018

Revenue

£662.4m

(38% of Total)

Revenue

£247.0m

(14% of Total)

Revenue

£587.5m

(33% of Total)

Over 36,000* employees in 71 countries

788

Employees

31

Offices

5,955

Employees

135

Offices

1,752

Employees

52

Offices

28,486

Employees

67

Offices

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UK

Market Dynamics

Macro themes

• GDP growth of 1.4% but uncertainty stalling activity in some sectors

• Comparative risk and pricing (including sterling devaluation) attractive to non-domestic investors

Market statistics

• Commercial property investment volumes down (-5.3%), but London remains the World’s no.1 destination for cross border investment

• All property commercial prime yields eased 25 bps, whilst UK office take up reached its second highest level ever, with national average vacancy rates of 8.7%

• Logistics - take up rose by 45% year on year with new

records being set in many markets including the North

West, Yorkshire and the East Midlands

• UK housing transaction volumes, down -2.5% but UK house prices up 0.5%, whilst PCL down 4.1%

Business Development Focus:

Growth of Property Management & Consultancy, strengthening selective transactional teams

Property Management

• Acq Broadgate Estates, 3rd party portfolio (21m sq. ft)

Consultancy

• Acq Porta Planning LLP

• Acq CMS (place making)

• Opened new Newcastle office

Residential Sales & Lettings

• Acq J P Case (Manchester)

• Acq Martel Maides (Guernsey)

• Acq The Currell Group (East London)

Transactional

• New Edinburgh Office Leasing Team

• New Debt Advisory Team

• Strengthened National Retail Leasing

Revenue

£662.4m

Growth

6% YOY

10

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11

Revenue

£587.5m

Growth

4% YOY

Market Dynamics

Macro themes

• A generally positive year ended on a more cautious note, with the US / China Trade War the biggest threat

• Slowing economy in China and greater capital controls.

Market statistics

• Commercial property investment up 1.3% - a record year and China remained the largest market, despite slowest growth since 2014

• Strong yield compression across the markets (avg -1.5%) with continued demand for prime

• Total investment activity down slightly on 2018, with mixed volumes, eg Tokyo (-10%), HK (+32%), Seoul (+58%)

• Strong rental growth in office markets, HK (7.8% pa), Tokyo (4.9% pa) & Singapore (9.5%) whilst China saw ‘grade A’ supply decrease by 47% in first tier cities

Business Development Focus:

Continued organic growth across the region with selected office openings in China and India

Hong Kong

• Strengthened Property Management & Capital Markets businesses

China

• New offices in Wuhan, Changsha and Hainan, focusing on Property Management, Commercial Leasing & Retail

• Strengthened Leasing teams in Guangzhou, Chengdu & Hangzhou

Australia

• Significant national team lifts in Logistics (NSW & Vic), Office Leasing & Sales (NSW) & Property Management

South East Asia

• Acquired Valuations teams in Singapore & Thailand

India

• Opened 3 new offices in New Delhi, Mumbai & Bangalore, with 2 more planned in 2019

• Service lines established, covering Tenant Rep, Capital Markets, Project Management, Valuations, Leasing & Residential Sales

Asia Pacific

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North America

Revenue

£264.5m

Growth

18% YOY

Market Dynamics

Macro themes

• Real GDP growth of 2.9% but rising interest rates, economic protectionism, and political uncertainty create headwinds

• Unemployment rate ended the year near post-war low of 3.9%, strong corporate growth

Market statistics

• Commercial office investment above historical averages (+13.5%) yet well below 2007 peak (-66%)

• Leasing volume up (+14.0%) across overall US office market, with particular strength in New York, San Francisco & Washington DC

• Office rents continue to rise (+2.9%) in top-tier markets, however, leasing concessions rising

• Average vacancy rates reduced to 9.5% but robust development pipeline being delivered in many primary markets

Business Development Focus:

Organic growth of occupier focused business with diversification on sector & services

Central Management

• New team with 6 key appointments and rebranding to Savills – H1 2019

Tenant Representation

• Growth of business in Minneapolis, LA, Dallas, Toronto & Columbus

Logistics

• Growth of National Logistics capability

Project Management & Consultancy

• Growth of Workplace & Project Management nationally

Capital Markets

• Integration of recently acquired New York Capital Markets business

Technology

• Continued investment in award winning technology (egKnowledge Cubed)

12

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Europe & Middle East

Revenue

£247.0m

Growth

35% YOY

Market Dynamics

Macro themes

• Investor demand strong, but challenges of liquidity and pricing

• Slowing economic growth in core Europe particularly Germany & Italy

• Increased political & economic uncertainty in UAE

Market statistics

• European investment volumes down -7.5%, primarily due to lack of liquidity

• Major country investment down -15%, but Poland +16%, Ireland +35%, Portugal +80% as investors seek smaller markets

• Office leasing volumes down 2% as availability tightens (average European vacancy rate 5.7%)

• Prime CBD office rents in Europe grew 3.4% on average, secondary 5.5% on average

• UAE capital and rental values remain under downward pressure

Business Development Focus:

Continued growth in core European markets and integration of Middle East business

Spain & Portugal

• Integration of Aguirre Newman business, office HQ relocation in Madrid and expansion of Resi business

France

• Strengthened Office Leasing in Paris & Lyon

Sweden

• New CEO & new Capital Markets team in Stockholm

Italy

• New High Street Retail Agency team

Poland

• Strengthened Logistics business in Leasing & Capital Markets

Netherlands

• New office opening in Utrecht

Middle East

• Integration of Cluttons multi-sector business across 5 Gulf Countries

13

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Savills Investment Management (SIM)

Revenue

£66.7m

Growth

0% YOY

Business Development Focus:

Growth of AUM and launch of products focused on UK, Europe & Asia Pacific markets

• AUM increased by 12% to £16.4bn (£14.6bn in 2017)

• Transacted over £3.8bn (£2.8bn acquisitions and £1bn disposals)

• Continued strong Investment performance

• Acquired 25% of DRC, leading specialist Debt Fund Manager

• Raised £2.4bn of new equity across 22 products

• Successful disposition Japan I; significant outperformance; Japan II strong first close

• Integrated Zaphir Asset Management and grew AUM in Spain

• Search for new Global CEO of SIM approaching conclusion

Market Dynamics

• Brexit & European Geo-Political concerns impacted on equity raising and investment activity

• Concerns around general pricing across all asset classes – late cycle

• Increasing level of regulatory compliance

• Continued consolidation of smaller investment managers

• Weight of capital targeting property sector remains well above average

• Brexit worries reduce activity in final quarter of 2018 particularly for Retail funds

• Real Estate debt and alternatives increasingly attractive asset classes

14

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Financial Review

15

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Summary Underlying Result

16

Year ended 31 December (£m) 2018 2017 % chg

Revenue 1,761.4 1,600.0 +10.1%

Underlying PBT 143.7 140.5 +2.3%

Underlying PBT margin 8.2% 8.8% (0.6)% pts

Underlying basic earnings per share 77.8p 75.8p 2.6%

Dividend per share 31.2p 30.2p 3.3%

Net cash 73.9 98.6 (25.1)%

Net assets 505.0 441.7 14.3%

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Dividends

17

Year ended 31 December 2018 2017 % chg

Interim ordinary (“Less Transactional”) 4.80p 4.65p 3.2%

Final ordinary (“Less Transactional”) 10.80p 10.45p 3.3%

Supplemental (“Transactional”) 15.60p 15.10p 3.3%

Total distribution (per share) 31.20p 30.20p 3.3%

Total distribution (£m) 42.7 41.2 3.6%

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Revenue and Underlying PBT by Region

18

626.0

565.7

224.8182.4

662.4

587.5

264.5 247.0

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

7002017

2018

Revenue

UK Asia Pacific North America

UPBT

+6%

E&ME

76.5

55.6

7.811.2

76.8

54.9

12.8 12.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

900%

+4%

+18%+35%

(1)%

+15%+64%

£m

Margin 12.2% 11.6% 9.8% 9.3% 3.5% 4.8% 6.1% 5.2%

The figures in these charts

exclude revenues of £0.0m

(2017: £1.1m) and other net

costs of £13.7m (2017: £10.6m)

not allocated to the operating

activities of the group’s

business segments

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Revenue and Underlying PBT by Service Line

19

746.2

513.1

273.1

66.5

813.5

586.8

294.4

66.7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2017

2018

+14%

+8%

0%

Revenue

81.5

25.331.0

13.3

81.1

32.2 33.1

11.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

+27% +7%

(17)%

Transaction

Advisory

Property

Management Consultancy

Investment

Management

UPBT

+9%

0%

Margin 10.9% 10.0% 4.9% 5.5% 11.4% 11.2% 20.0% 16.5%

£m

The figures in these charts

exclude revenues of £0.0m

(2017: £1.1m) and other net

costs of £13.7m (2017: £10.6m)

not allocated to the operating

activities of the group’s

business segments

Combined revenue and UPBT growth of 11% and 10% respectively

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Cashflow Performance

20

98.6

73.9

143.7 16.4

23.9

5.6

9.8

12.3

87.0

22.6

25.1

41.6 1.1

34.4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Net cash at 31-Dec-2017

UPBT Non-cash itemsWorking capital Cash flowsfrom

investments

Acquisitionspend - current

& deferred

Capex Purchase ofEBT shares

Proceeds fromissue of shares

Dividends paid Interest Tax Foreignexchange

Net cash at 31-Dec-2018

£m

Cash generation from operations of £147.8m

(2017:£145.1m)

Acquisition spend £87.0m (2017: £117.1m)

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Commercial Transaction Advisory

21

2018 Revenue £636.1m (+11%) 2018 UPBT £55.2m (-2%)

Asia Pacific Growth in Hong Kong and South Korea offset by a slow down in Investment transactions in Mainland China, Australia and Japan

UK investment market volumes down, particularly the retail sector, impacting revenues in our Investment and Central London & International teams

Europe & Middle East positive impact of Aguirre Newman and Cluttons Middle East acquisitions. Investment growth in Ireland, Germany and the

Czech Republic and leasing revenue growth in Sweden

North America significant growth in Occupier Service business – Washington DC, Southern California, New York, Atlanta and Denver

160.1

98.4113.1

264.5

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

Asia Pacific UK E&ME North America

Growth (5)% (3)% +45% +18%

21.2

15.7

5.5

12.8

-

5

10

15

20

25

Asia Pacific UK E&ME North America

Growth (21)% (9)% +22% +64%

£m £m

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Residential Transaction Advisory

22

2018 Revenue £177.4m (+2%) 2018 UPBT £25.9m (+3%)

Asia Pacific strong growth in Hong Kong high-end Residential sales and good performances elsewhere offsetting weaker

markets such as Australia

UK revenue broadly flat in second-hand sales; London marginally up; Regions marginally down. New development revenues

up slightly, reflecting higher average unit values, and higher volumes

UK significant Residential Capital Markets revenue growth

45.9

131.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Asia Pacific UK

Growth +4% +2%

8.3

17.6

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Asia Pacific UK

Growth +30% (6)%

£m £m

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Property Management

23

2018 Revenue £586.8m (+14%) 2018 UPBT £32.2m (+27%)

Asia Pacific revenue growth in Hong Kong property and facilities management, new contracts in Hong Kong, Macau,

Mainland China and Vietnam

UK strong underlying revenue growth in Residential Lettings and Commercial Property Management. Positive impact of

Broadgate Estates management portfolio acquired during the year

Europe & Middle East revenue growth as a result of acquisitions, supported by organic growth in the Czech Republic,

France and Sweden. Break-even achieved (2017: £1.8m loss)

327.0

190.9

68.9

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Asia Pacific UK E&ME

Growth +9% +15% +48%

19.2

13.0

--

5

10

15

20

25

Asia Pacific UK E&ME

Growth +25% +11% n/a

£m £m

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Consultancy

24

2018 Revenue £294.4m (+8%) 2018 UPBT £33.1m (+7%)

UK strong performances in Planning, Development, Building & Project Consultancy, Hotels Leisure and Trading and Housing &

Healthcare

Asia Pacific Constant currency revenue up 2% with growth in much of the region offset by reduced Valuations activity in

Australia and Hong Kong

Europe & Middle East acquisitions in Spain and the Middle East, supported by organic growth (10% overall) driven by

Germany

215.9

45.133.4

0

50

100

150

200

250

UK Asia Pacific E&ME

Growth +5% (1)% +48%

25.8

4.3 3.0

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

UK Asia Pacific E&ME

Growth +8% (16)% +50%

£m £m

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Investment Management

25

2018 Revenue £66.7m (2017: £66.5m) 2018 UPBT £11.0m (-17%)

As anticipated, revenue/profit affected by the decrease in disposal activity from the liquidating SEB German Open Ended

Funds vs 2017

Transactions of circa £3.8bn (2017: £4.8bn) executed, including £1.0bn disposals and £2.8bn acquisitions. AUM

increased to £16.4bn (2017: £14.6bn)

Acquisition of 25% stake in debt investment management business DRC Capital LLP, with option to buy the remaining

75% in 2021

Strong Fund performance (82% of funds exceeding 5 yr benchmarks)

25.7

31.6

9.4

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

UK E&ME Asia Pacific

Growth

4.74.4

1.9

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

UK E&ME Asia Pacific

Growth(10)%+4% (32)%(6)%+47% +6%

£m £m

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26

Technology Investment- “Internal”

UK/Europe Real estate data analytics

UK Digitisation of valuation process

US CRM system

Global “Knowledge³” Occupier service analytics (CoreNet and FT awards for

innovation)

Progressive harmonisation of Savills ERP system Globally (Dynamics AX)

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271 Ordinary and preference shares 2 Ordinary shares and redeemable preference shares

Company Business

Total

Investment

Cost

Realised

to date

Net

Investment

Percentage

OwnershipNotes

“Digital Hybrid”

Residential Agent

(UK)

£16.0m £3.6m £12.4m 21.3%1

Grown to become 8th largest UK

Estate Agent, clear no.2 to

PurpleBricks amongst all hybrids.

Digitally enabled Tenant

Rep for co-working /

serviced offices

(Global)

£1.0m N/A £1.0m 100%

Autonomous start up within Savills.

Launched in 8 countries. 2018

revenue > £1.2m 100% growth in yr

2.

AI approach to real

estate valuation

(UK)

N/A N/A N/A 5%

Stake taken in consideration for use

of Savills data and market know how

to prove models.

The “Smart-City” digital

platform

(UK)

£6m N/A £6m 33%2

Largest most accurate City model in

existence. Licensed by 18/32 London

Boroughs. Interest from Global Cities.

Tenant focused

residential block

management tool

(Singapore)

£250k N/A £250k 19.7%Currently in use in 54 Condos (c.

26,000 tenants).

Portfolio

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Key Priorities &

Summary & Outlook

28

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29

Key Priorities

Asia Pacific: further growth in key Asian markets, balanced between

Transactional & Consultancy Services

North America: diversification of services & sector coverage including Project

Management, Workplace Consultancy, Logistics & Retail

Europe & Middle East: continued investment in stronger core European

markets, with emphasis on Property Management & Consultancy Services

UK: Maintain core strength & National multi-service expertise

Savills Investment Management: continue the development of SIM across

Europe & Asia Pac and, longer term, in the US

General monitoring of market conditions and careful cost control

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30

Summary & Outlook

A robust 2018 despite market challenges

Solid start to 2019

Heightened uncertainty (market & geopolitical risk) likely to temper strong

transaction volumes in some markets

Continued growth in less transactional service lines

The Board’s expectations for 2019 currently remain unchanged

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Connecting people and

property since 1855