social capital, trust, and adaptation to climate change...
TRANSCRIPT
SocialCapital,Trust,andAdaptationtoClimateChange: 1EvidencefromRuralEthiopia 2
3ChristopherPaul1,ErikaWeinthal2,MarcBellemare3,MarcJeuland4 4
1CorrespondingAuthor:[email protected];Phone:+1-919-260-0638;Fax:+919-681-7748 5NicholasSchooloftheEnvironment,DukeUniversity,Box90328,Durham,NC27708USA 62NicholasSchooloftheEnvironment,DukeUniversity,Box90328,Durham,NC27708USA; 7
[email protected] 83DepartmentofAppliedEconomics,UniversityofMinnesota,1994BufordAvenue,St.Paul,MN55108USA; 9
[email protected] 104SanfordSchoolofPublicPolicy,DukeUniversity,Box90239,Durham,NC27708USA,andInstituteofWater 11Policy,LeeKwanYewSchoolofPublicPolicy,NationalUniversityofSingapore;[email protected] 12
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Abstract 14
Climatechangeisexpectedtohaveparticularlysevereeffectsonpooragrarian 15populations.Ruralhouseholdsindevelopingcountriesadapttotherisksandimpactsof 16climatechangebothindividuallyandcollectively.Empiricalresearchhasshownthataccess 17tocapital—financial,human,physical,andsocial—iscriticalforbuildingresilienceand 18fosteringadaptationtoenvironmentalstresses.Littleattention,however,hasbeenpaidto 19howsocialcapitalgenerallymightfacilitateadaptationthroughtrustandcooperation, 20particularlyamongruralhouseholdsandcommunities.Thispaperaddressesthequestion 21ofhowsocialcapitalaffectsadaptationtoclimatechangebyruralhouseholdsbyfocusing 22ontherelationshipofhouseholdandcollectiveadaptationbehaviors.Amixed-methods 23approachallowsustobetteraccountforthecomplexityofsocialinstitutions—atthe 24household,communityandgovernmentlevels—whichdriveclimateadaptationoutcomes. 25Weusedatafrominterviews,householdsurveys,andfieldexperimentsconductedin20 26communitieswith400householdsintheRiftValleyofEthiopiaaimedatelicitingtrustand 27riskpreferences.Ourresultssuggestthatqualitativemeasuresoftrustpredict 28contributionstopublicgoods,aresultthatisconsistentwiththetheorizedroleofsocial 29capitalincollectiveaction.Yetqualitativetrustisnegativelyrelatedtoprivatehousehold- 30leveladaptationbehaviors,whichraisesthepossibilitythatsocialcapitalmay, 31paradoxically,bedetrimentaltoprivateadaptation.Policymakersshouldaccountforthe 32potentialdifferenceinpublicandprivateadaptationbehaviorsinrelationtotrustand 33socialcapitalwhendesigninginterventionsforclimateadaptation. 34 35Keywords:ClimateChange;Trust;SocialCapital;Adaptation;Ethiopia 36
Acknowledgements 37ThispaperwascompletedwithsupportfromaUSAIDConflictManagementandMitigation 38grant(#AID-OAA-A-12-00068),theDukeUniversityGlobalHealthInstitute,andthe 39NicholasSchooloftheEnvironment.CourtneyHarrison,TewodrosRango,EshetuLemma, 40andallourcolleaguesinEthiopiawereessentialforthisproject.Thisstudyismade 41possiblebythesupportoftheAmericanpeoplethroughtheUnitedStatesAgencyfor 42InternationalDevelopment(USAID).Theopinionsexpressedhereinarethoseofthe 43authorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofUSAID. 44
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1.Introduction 46
Climatechangeisexpectedtohaveaprofoundimpactonlivelihoodsaroundtheworldby 47
causingmoresevereweatherevents,risingsealevels,andhigheraveragetemperatures 48
(IPCC,2014).Buildingresiliencetoclimatechangedependsuponimprovingexisting 49
optionsforadaptation,especiallyamongvulnerablepopulations,suchaspoorrural 50
householdsindevelopingcountries.Thosehouseholdsadapttotherisksandimpactsof 51
climatechangeinmanyways,bothindividuallyandcollectively(Adger,2003;Tompkins 52
andEakin,2012).Theabilityofhouseholdsandtheircommunitiestoadapt,however,is 53
conditionedbyamyriadoffactorsthatareofteninshortsupplyforruralhouseholds, 54
includingaccesstofinancial,human,physical,andsocialcapital.Whileaccesstoalltypesof 55
capitaliscriticalforbuildingresilienceandfosteringadaptationtoenvironmentalstresses, 56
littleattentionhasbeenpaidtotheroleofsocialcapitalwhich,followingOstromandAhn 57
(2003),wedefineasthevalueofrelationshipsthatfacilitatescooperationandcollective 58
actionthroughtrust.Intheabsenceofotherformsofcapital,socialcapitalisparticularly 59
importantforpromotingadaptationtonewthreatsfromclimatechangebyfurthering 60
cooperationandcollectiveaction. 61
62
Thispaperaddressesthequestionofhowsocialcapitalaffectsadaptationatthehousehold 63
andcommunitylevelsinpoorruralcommunitiesindevelopingcountries.Specifically,we 64
(i)assesstheroleofsocialcapitalinpoor,ruralcommunitiesintheEthiopianRiftValley, 65
(ii)testmultiplesurveyandexperimentalmeasurementsofsocialcapitalbothqualitative 66
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andquantitative,and(iii)evaluatetherelationshipofourvariousmeasuresofsocial 67
capitaltoindividualhouseholdandcollectivecommunityadaptationbehaviors. 68
69
Althoughscholarshaverecognizedthepotentialimportanceofsocialcapital,mostworkon 70
theroleofsocialcapitalinadaptationtodatehasbeentheoreticalorbasedoncasestudies 71
orsmallsamples(Adger,2003;PellingandHigh,2005;Wolfetal.,2010).Thegapin 72
appliedresearchonthisrelationshipisevidentinreportsfromtheIntergovernmental 73
PanelonClimateChangethatstate“thecapacityforcollectiveactionisacritical 74
determinantofthecapacitytoadapttoclimatepolitics,”yetonlyhaveevidencefortheloss 75
ofsocialcapitalinconflict(Adgeretal.,2014).Empiricalworkonthistopicisparticularly 76
challengingbecausesocialcapitalandclimateadaptationarebothcomplexphenomena 77
withavarietyofpotentialmechanismsandeffects(Adgeretal.,2005;OstromandAhn, 78
2003).Furthermore,thereislimitedworkonhowsocialcapitalrelatestoadaptation 79
behaviors.Mostoftheempiricalliteraturefocusesonthepositivebenefitsarisingfrom 80
socialrelationshipsandtrustwhileignoringthepossibilitythatthecomplexityof 81
mechanismsandscalesofsocialcapitalmayinsomecasesreveala“darksideofsocial 82
capital”(Bagnasco,2008;DethandZmerli,2010;Portes,1998)whichpromotesnegative 83
outcomesforcertaingroups. 84
85
Thelevelsandmethodsformeasuringkeyvariablesmayalsohaveaninfluenceonthe 86
relationshipsbetweentrust,socialcapital,andoutcomes.Forexample,trustcanbe 87
measuredusingsurveys(byaskingabouttrustingeneralorabouttrustinthecontextof 88
specifictransactions)andexperimentalapproaches(bysimulatingtrust-based 89
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transactionsandrewardingsubjectsaccordingly).Themeasurementsobtainedusingthese 90
differentmethodsmaynotbeconsistentwithoneanother,andmaybedifferentially 91
influencedbyavarietyofothercharacteristicsthatalsoaffectadaptation(Boumaetal., 92
2008;NaefandSchupp,2009;Ostrom,2005).Inaddition,alternativemeasuresmayonly 93
berelevanttooneormorespecificlevels—individual,household,andcommunity—of 94
socialcapitalandadaptation(SmitandWandel,2006;TompkinsandEakin,2012). 95
96
Inordertobettertestempiricallytherelationshipbetweensocialcapitalandtrustatthe 97
householdandcommunitylevels,andclimatechangeadaptation,wecombinemultiple 98
methodsofdatacollection,includingsemi-structuredinterviews,surveys,andfield 99
experiments.Thismixed-methodsapproachallowsustobetteraccountforthecomplexity 100
andscalesatwhichalternativeinstitutionsinfluenceclimateadaptationbehaviors(Adger 101
etal.,2005;Poteeteetal.,2010;Vaccaroetal.,2010),andtoconsidertherelevanceof 102
differentmeasuresoftrustandsocialcapital. 103
104
Ouranalysissuggeststhatthesedifferentmeasuresmaybeindicativeofdifferent 105
constructs,anditrevealsthatsurveymeasuresoftrustaremorestronglyrelatedto 106
observedbehaviors.Wealsofindevidenceofamixedeffectofsocialcapitalinclimate 107
adaptation:socialcapitalisassociatedwithincreasedcooperativeoutcomes,butalsowith 108
reducedprivatehousehold-leveladaptation.1Thoughouranalysiscanobviouslynot 109
1Throughoutthepaper,weusetheterm“privateadaptation”torefertohousehold-leveladaptation,notingthatsomeofthesehousehold-levelbehaviorsdoinvolvelimitedcooperationwithotherhouseholds(e.g.,sharingoftools).Community-levelor“public
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identifycausalrelationshipsbetweenvariousmeasuresofsocialcapitalandadaptationto 110
climatechange,ourresultsraisethepossibilitythatsocialcapitalmay,paradoxically,be 111
detrimentaltoprivateadaptation,dependingonwhicheffectdominatesinhousehold 112
behavior. 113
114
Theremainderofthispaperisorganizedasfollows.Webegininsection2bydescribing 115
climateadaptationanddefiningthephenomenonofsocialcapitalanditsmechanismsin 116
thenextsection.Insection3,wedescribeourstudysiteintheruralRiftValleyofEthiopia, 117
andthespecificmethodsusedtoevaluatesocialcapitalandadaptation.Next,weprovidea 118
descriptionofthedatainsection4and,insection5,wediscussourresultsintestingof 119
eachofthehypotheses,showingthatwhilesocialcapitalisimportantincollective 120
adaptationactivities,itisnegativelyrelatedtoprivatehouseholdadaptation.Wethen 121
concludeinsection6withpotentialpolicyimplicationsanddirectionsforfutureresearch. 122
2.Climateadaptation,socialcapital,andcollectiveaction 123
Climateadaptation,“theprocessofadjustmenttoactualorexpectedclimateanditseffects” 124
(IPCC,2014),isaprocessthatisbothbio-physicalandhuman.Whilehumanshavealways 125
neededtorespondtoachangingenvironment,thecurrentperiodofglobalclimatechange 126
strainshumancapacityforadaptationbecauseofthecombinedrapidityandseverityofthe 127
changesitentails.Individualsmustmakecomplexdecisionsaboutadaptationthat 128
determinetheconsequencesofclimatechangeforlivelihoodsunderincreasing 129
adaptation”behaviorsrepresentcontributionorparticipationintheprovisionofcommunity-levelpublicgoods.
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uncertainty,forexamplethatarisingfromwateravailability,variabilityincropyieldsand 130
greaterextremesofnaturaldisasters.Bydefinition,constraintsonadaptation,whicharea 131
functionoffinancial,human,andotherformsofcapital,wouldappearhighestfor 132
disadvantagedcommunities. 133
134
Adaptationoccursatindividual,household,community,andlargerinstitutionalscales 135
(Adgeretal.,2005).Inthispaper,weconsiderthreepotentiallevelsofadaptation: 136
household,community,andgovernment.Attheprivatehouseholdlevel,adaptationtakes 137
formssuchastechnologyadoption,migration,orchangesinlivelihoods.Communitylevel 138
adaptationmayoccurthroughcollectiveaction,theabilityofagrouptoachieveacommon 139
interest,andtheprovisionofpublicgoods(Olson,1971;Poteeteetal.,2010;Tompkinsand 140
Eakin,2012).Collectiveactionfacilitatesthepoolingofresources,knowledge,andefforts 141
forcommunityresponses.Wetreatcollectiveactionasabroaddescriptionofcooperative 142
interaction.Externalinterventionssuchasgovernmentprogramsandinterventionscan 143
affectadaptation,withorwithouttheinputofhouseholdsandcommunities,butdonot 144
alwaysbenefitruralareasbecauseofthelackofinfrastructureorstatereach,theabilityof 145
governmentstoimplementprogrammingandexertpower(e.g.,Herbst,2000).Thedegree 146
ofcooperationinruralareasisthuspotentiallymoreimportantindeterminingoutcomes. 147
148
Explanationsfortheemergenceofcollectiveactionhavefocusedonfactorssuchasgroup 149
size,leadership,andincentives(Olson,1971),butthevalueofcooperativesocialrelations 150
andhowpreciselytheyemergeremainscriticalandunclear(Ostrom,1994;Ostromand 151
Ahn,2003).TheoriesofsocialcapitalaroseoutofworksuchasthatofPierreBourdieu 152
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investigatingtheresourcesofsocialnetworksandthefunctionofsocialstructuresby 153
JamesColeman(Bourdieu,1986;Coleman,1988;Portes,1998).Thesetheorieshavebeen 154
furtherdevelopedandappliedtodiversefieldsincludingeconomicactivities,sustainable 155
development,andnaturalresourcemanagement(DaleandNewman,2010;DaleandOnyx, 156
2010;Fukuyama,1995;PrettyandWard,2001).OstromandAhn(2003),moreover, 157
specifythreecomponentsofsocialcapital:institutions,socialnetworks,and 158
trustworthiness.Institutionsarethesocial,economic,andpolitical“rulesofthegame”that 159
governinteractions(North,1990);theymediaterelationships,andthusinfluencethe 160
outcomesofindividualandcollectivebehavior(Agrawal,2009).Opportunitiesfor 161
cooperationthusarisefromthewebofrelationshipsthatmakeupsocialnetworks(Ostrom 162
andAhn,2003).Therelationshipsinthesenetworksarecommonlyclassifiedas:bonding, 163
theclosetieswithinagroup;bridging,thetiesbetweengroups;andlinking,thevertical 164
relationshipsacrosshierarchies(SzreterandWoolcock,2004;Woolcock,2001).Denseand 165
stablenetworksfacilitategeneralizedreciprocityand“trustworthiness,”whichareall 166
characteristicsthatfacilitatetrust(Putnametal.,1993). 167
168
Trust,theconfidencethatotherswillactoncommitmentsreliablyandwithreciprocity,isa 169
coremechanismofsocialcapitalforcollectiveaction(OstromandAhn,2003;Putnam, 170
2001).Trustisdependentuponcharacteristicsofindividualsandtheirsetting,including 171
institutions,thenatureandextentofsocialnetworks,andindividualcharacteristics.Trust 172
mayalsoberelatedtoanindividual’stoleranceforrisk,sincetrustinganotherindividual 173
mayinmanycasescarryrisks(Schechter,2007).Inthefaceofthreatsfromclimatechange, 174
trustaffectshouseholds’confidencethattheycanrelyonothersforresourcesharing, 175
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conflictresolution,andsustainedcooperation.Asaresult,highertrustmayenhance 176
opportunitiesforadaptation(Adger,2003). 177
178
Asanexample,thesharingoffarmequipmentcanhelpillustratethenatureofrelationships 179
betweentrustandsocialcapital.Inmanysituations,farmersmayhaveshort-termdemand 180
formorephysicalcapitalthantheypersonallyown.Individualswhoarewellendowedwith 181
suchphysicalcapitalmustdecidewhethertoloanorleasefarmingequipmenttotheir 182
neighbors,adecisionthatisinfluencedbymultipleaspectsofsocialcapital,including 183
bondingsocialcapitalandtrust.Bondingsocialcapitalhelpsgroupsleveragetheir 184
resourcesmoreeffectivelybysharingriskandcost(WoolcockandNarayan,2000).Here, 185
trustfunctionstoaidthelenderorlessortomakeadecisionbasedonahistoryofpast 186
interactionswiththepotentialborrower(i.e.,hisorhertrustworthiness)(Fafchamps, 187
2004;Platteau,2000,1994a,1994b),onhisownperceptions,oronothercommunity 188
members’perceptionsoftheborrower’strustworthiness.Thus,socialnetworksmay 189
contributeinformationaboutagents’trustworthiness,andmayproviderecourseinthe 190
eventthatthetermsofthetransactionareviolated.Meanwhile,existinginstitutions 191
structuretransactions,forexamplebyspecifyingthetimeoverwhichaloanisallowed,the 192
conditionsofenforcementoftheagreement(e.g.returningtheequipmentontime),orthe 193
termsofreciprocity. 194
195
Whenfacedwithenvironmentalthreats,suchasworseninggrowingconditions,farmers 196
mustdrawuponsocialcapital,amongotherformsofcapital,tocope.Forexample,if 197
additionallaborandtoolsareneededforterracingafieldtocopewithstrongerrainstorms, 198
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afarmermustdetermineinformationaboutbestpracticesandfindotherpeopleto 199
contribute,byhiringthemorleveragingsocialrelationships.Intheexample,thesenetwork 200
relationshipsmediateopportunitiesforinformation,suchasneworbestpractices. 201
Bridgingsocialcapitalallowsinformationtobesharedbetweengroups.Confidencein 202
informationcanbedeterminedbylinkingsocialcapitalacrossverticallevelsto 203
governmentoroutsideagencies.Ultimately,groupsofhighbondingsocialcapitalcanact 204
uponthisknowledge.Thesharingofinformationpromotesadaptationbycombiningthe 205
humancapitalofknowledgewiththesocialcapitalofnetworks(FalcoandVeronesi, 206
2013a).Trustis,moreover,essentialforassessingandactinguponsharedinformation 207
(CreechandWillard,2001).Finally,adaptationoccursthroughcooperationandcollective 208
actionsupportedbysocialcapital.Community-leveladaptationmayalsodependupon 209
externalfactors,suchasgovernmentinstitutionsandprogramming,whichcould 210
complementoroffsettheeffectofsocialcapital. 211
212
Socialnetworksspecificallyservemultipletypesoffunctionsforadaptationandcollective 213
action,asnetworkscanbehorizontalbetweenpeerswithinacommunity,orverticalacross 214
hierarchies(Putnametal.,1993).Particularlywhenhigher-level(e.g.state-level) 215
institutionsareabsent,thenetworkingfunctionofsocialcapitalsupportslocalinstitutions 216
andcollectiveactionresponsesthatareneededforaddressingcommunitychallenges, 217
includingthosearisingfromshocksorcrises(Adger,2003;Bratton,1989;Platteau,1994a, 218
1994b).Thus,thevalueofsocialnetworksisinbothfacilitatingtrustworthinessand 219
contributingtothepossibilityofaccessingdifferent(andperhapscollective)resources 220
throughmultiplevenues(WoolcockandNarayan,2000). 221
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222
Socialcapitaldoesnotnecessarilyhaveuniversallypositiveeffectsorserveasinsurance 223
mechanismsagainstadverseshocks.Socialcapitalmaybeineffectiveifthereisageneral 224
lackofresourcesorknowledgeofeffectivesolutions.Inthissense,thecommunitymaybe 225
theinappropriatescaleofactionnecessarytoadapt;rather,adaptationcoulddepend 226
primarilyonchoicesmadebytheindividualhousehold(e.g.,migration)orbythestate(e.g., 227
aidprogramming).Trustmaynotbeenoughtoovercomethetransactioncostsfor 228
collectiveaction.Therealsomaybea“darksideofsocialcapital”(DethandZmerli,2010), 229
inwhichstrongsocialinstitutionscangeneratenegativeoutcomesoroverpowerformal 230
legalinstitutions,asinthecaseofthemafia(Gambetta,1988).Groupsmaybeisolatedand 231
madelessdiversebyaprocessofhomophily,thetendencyofgroupstobecomemore 232
similar,reducingvaluablebridgingsocialcapitalbetweengroups(NewmanandDale, 233
2007).Decisionsinvolvingtrustandsocialcapitalmayalsobegovernedbyotherdecision- 234
makingcharacteristicssuchasriskpreferences(Schechter,2007).Inotherwords,an 235
individual’spropensitytotrustmaybepartiallygovernedbyherwillingnesstotakerisks. 236
237
Finally,itisimportanttodistinguishbetweensocialcapitalofhouseholdswithin 238
communities,andbridging(verticallinking)ofsocialtiesbeyondcommunities.Bridging 239
socialcapitalcanhelplinkindividualsandhouseholdstonewideasandresourcesbeyond 240
theircommunity,byeithersubstitutingorcomplementingtheroleofthestate(Adger, 241
2003).Inadaptation,communitiesthatorganizeandcooperatecanbetteraccessexternal 242
support(KarlssonandHovelsrud,2015).Thesetypesoflinkscanenhanceconnectionwith 243
outsideorganizationsandgovernmentofficials,generatingbetterprovisionofresources. 244
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245
Wehypothesizethatsocialcapitalinfluencestheabilityofhouseholdstorespondto 246
change.Thisisbecausetheconstituentpartsofsocialcapital,andaccesstocollectiveaction 247
processes,influencethequalityandsetofoptions(orconstraints)thathouseholdsface 248
whenthreatenedbyclimatechange.Specifically,trustshouldbeassociatedwithcollective 249
actionandincreasedadaptationbehaviors,perhapsduetoinformationsharing,knowledge 250
mobilization,andresourcecoordination.Householdswithhigherlevelsoftrustarelikelyto 251
possessmoresocialcapitalandarehypothesizedtoundertakemoreadaptationactivities. 252
253
3.StudySiteandMethods 254
3.1StudyLocation 255
Ethiopiaisoneofthefastestgrowingeconomiesintheworld,averagingover10%annual 256
growthingrossdomesticproductsince2004.Yet,Ethiopiaremainsapredominantlypoor 257
andruralcountry,withanationalaveragepercapitaincomeof$470andapopulationthat 258
is84%rural(TheWorldBank,2014a,2014b).ThroughoutruralEthiopia,farmerstypically 259
uselabor-intensiveagriculturalmethodsandpracticesubsistencefarming,asmostfarms 260
arerain-fedandyieldsareaccordinglylow(Mengistu,2006).Thesefactors,coupledwith 261
extremeandincreasingclimatevariability,suggestahighdegreeofpotentialvulnerability 262
toclimatechange,especiallyindrought-proneruralareassuchastheRiftValley(Notre 263
DameGlobalAdaptationIndex,2014).Theeffectofclimatechangeonwatersuppliesinthis 264
regioncouldbequitesignificant(Legesseetal.,2003).The13millionpeoplelivinginthis 265
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regionareprimarilysmallholderandherderhouseholds,andhaveminimalaccessto 266
financialcapitalandoutsideresourcesforcopingwithsuchdisruptions. 267
268
Thisstudyspans20villageslocatedinfourworedas(i.e.,districts)oftheZiway-Shalalake 269
basin;communitiesinthiszonesharecommonhydrologicalandagriculturalconditions. 270
Thestudycommunitiesaresmallandrelativelyisolated,andmostlyhomogenousin 271
religiousandethnicmake-up.Thefinalsampleconsistsof20randomlyselected 272
householdsfromeachofthesecommunities,foratotalof400households. 273
274
WechosetheEthiopianRiftValleytostudyadaptationbecausetheregion’srural 275
populationisalreadyexperiencing(andrespondingto)significantstressesduetoextreme 276
climatevariability,theeffectsofwhicharelikelytobecomemorepronouncedinthefuture 277
(Kassieetal.,2013).InruralEthiopia,climatechangehasbeenlinkedtoreducedincome; 278
intheabsenceofadaptation,furtherdeclineinhouseholdincomeislikelytooccur 279
(DeressaandHassan,2009).Moreover,thesemi-aridlowlandsoftheRiftValleyaresimilar 280
tomanyothersub-Saharanlocationsthatarefacingorexpectedtofacenewthreatsfrom 281
climatechange(Niangetal.,2014). 282
283
3.2DataCollectionStrategy 284
Thevillagesinoursamplewereselectedusingastratifiedmethod.Halfofthevillageswere 285
selectedfromall5936villageswithinthestudyarea,andhalfwererandomlyselectedfrom 286
alistof50siteswithknownpoorwaterquality.Thissamplingprocesscomportswitha 287
separatestudyonwaterqualityandhealthinthisregionandbuildsuponpriorresearch 288
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(Kravchenkoetal.,2014;Rangoetal.,2012).Withineachsamplecommunity,weuseda 289
structuredfieldcountingrandomizationmethodtoselect20householdswithinatwo- 290
kilometerradiusofthecommunitycenter.Ineachselectedhousehold,weinterviewedboth 291
themaleandfemalehouseholdheadwheneverpossible.Datacollectionoccurredprimarily 292
duringthemonthofFebruary,whichisimmediatelypost-harvestforteffandmaize,the 293
primarycropsinthearea. 294
295
Thefirstelementofthedatacollectionwassemi-structuredinterviews,whichestablishthe 296
institutionalconditionsforadaptationandresourcemanagementandalsoprovidecontext 297
forunderstandingthesurveyandexperimentaldata.Specifically,weinterviewed 298
communityrepresentativesineachofour20villages,aswellasregionalgovernment 299
officialslocatedattheworeda-level,withasetofguidingquestionsandallowingopen- 300
endedresponses.Localinterviewswerecomplementedbyinterviewswithofficialsfrom 301
thecentralgovernment,foreigndonors,andnongovernmentalorganizations(NGOs).The 302
seconddatacollectioncomponentcomprisessurveysconductedwiththe400selected 303
households.Thethirdcomponentofdatacollectionconsistedoffieldexperiments. 304
Specifically,followingSchechter(2007)andTanakaetal.(2010),weplayedinvestment 305
andriskgamesdevelopedtomeasureindividualtrustandriskpreferenceswithamaleand 306
femalememberofeachhouseholdinoursample.Thesearedescribedinmoredetailinthe 307
followingsection. 308
309
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TheDukeUniversityInstitutionalReviewBoardapprovedthestudyandexperimental 310
gameprotocols.Allrespondentsprovidedinformedconsentpriortoparticipationinthe 311
study.Theconfidentialityandanonymityofsurveyrespondentshasbeenmaintained. 312
313
3.3MeasuresofSocialCapital,Trust,CollectiveAction,andAdaptation 314
Themultipledatacollectionactivitiesprovideuswitharichsetofempiricalmeasuresof 315
trustandsocialcapitalconstructs,andofcollectiveactionandagriculturaladaptation 316
outcomes.SurveyquestionscorrespondingtoourkeyvariablesarelistedinTable1. 317
3.3.1Trust 318
Wemeasuretrustthroughsurveysandexperimentalgames.Inthesurvey,weuse 319
standardizedquestionsfromtheGeneralSocialSurvey(Smith,Marsden,Hout,&Kim, 320
2011).ThespecificwordingofoursurveyquestionsislistedinTable1.Previousresearch 321
hasindicatedthatthissurveymeasureoftrust,albeitimperfect,isrelativelystableand 322
comparablewithrealworldbehavior(Glaeseretal.,2000). 323
324
Theexperimentalgames’measureoftrustreliesontheinvestmentgame,atoolthathas 325
beenwidelyusedandtestedinfieldexperiments(Bergetal.,1995;OstromandWalker, 326
2003).OurdesigncloselyfollowsthemodelofSchechter(2007),combiningariskgame 327
withatrustgameinwhichparticipantsinvestandentrustasumofactualmoneywith 328
anotherparticipant.Akeyadvantageofthisfieldexperimentalmethodologyisthat 329
participantshavethepotentialtoearnrealmoney,whichisthoughttoinducetruthful 330
revelationofpreferencesandbeliefsascomparedtohypotheticalpayoffs. 331
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332
Thetrustexperimentalgameisplayedinagroupwithhouseholdheadswhoparticipated 333
inthesurvey.Approximatelythreequartersofhouseholdheadsparticipatedinthegame. 334
Asdescribedfurtherbelow,therewerenosystematicdemographicdifferencesbetween 335
thosewhoparticipatedandthosewhodidnot.Eachparticipantisrandomlyassignedtoan 336
anonymouspartner,andbothpartnersplaytheroleofsenderandreceiver.Groupsforthe 337
trustgamewereseparatedbygenderbecausesmall-scalefinancialtransactionsinthe 338
studycommunities,suchasinterpersonalloans,areoftensegregatedbygender.Toplay 339
thefirstrole(sender),eachparticipantisgivenaninitialendowmentof10Birr 340
(approximately0.50USD,or25%ofaday’swageinthisregion).Thesenderisthentold 341
thatshecanchoosetoanonymouslysendnone,some,oralloftheinitialendowmentto 342
anotheranonymousreceiverinthegroup.Sheisalsotoldthatanyamountsentwillbe 343
tripled,andthatsomeofthemoneysentcouldthenbereturned,dependingonwhatthe 344
receiverdecidestodowithit.Thesentamountisplacedinanenvelopewithafacilitator, 345
whotriplesthesuminviewofthesender.Inthesecondstage,theseenvelopesare 346
randomlymixed,andeachparticipantisgivenadifferentenvelope(notherown).Atthis 347
point,eachindividualplaysthereceiverrole,anddecideswhatproportiontoreturntothe 348
originalsender.Envelopeswiththereturnedsumarethengivenbacktotheoriginal 349
sender. 350
351
WealsoimplementedanexperimentalprocedurefollowingSchechter(2007)andTanaka 352
etal.,(2010)toelicitriskpreferenceswiththesameindividualswhoparticipatedinthe 353
trustgames.Intheriskexperiment,respondentschoosebetweenbinarylotteries(of 354
16
knownprobabilityandoutcomes)tomeasureparametersestablishingtheshapeand 355
concavityoftheindividual’svaluefunction,andthedegreeoflossaversion(Liu,2013; 356
Tanakaetal.,2010).Byincludingtheseriskmeasuresinouranalyses,wecanensurethat 357
behaviorweascribetotrustisnottheresultofunderlyingriskpreferences. 358
3.3.2CommunityAdaptation 359
Weevaluatecommunityadaptationactivitiesbyaskinghouseholdsinthesurveysabout 360
theirparticipationandcontributiontocommunityimprovementsandpublicgoods,suchas 361
watersourcemaintenanceandconstructionofcommunitywaterharvesting.Ininterviews, 362
wealsoaskedaboutcommunalactivitiesandorganization.Inourregressionanalysis,the 363
dependentvariable“communityparticipation”isabinaryvariablefromthesurvey 364
question“Doyouoranymembersofyourhouseholdparticipateinanyactivitiesfor 365
improvingyourcommunity(outsidetheimmediatelimitsofyourhouse)?”Thedependent 366
variable“communitycontribution”isabinaryvariablefromthesurveyquestion“Does 367
yourhouseholdcontributetovillageactivitiesorserviceswithmoneyorotherdonationsin 368
thepastyear?” 369
3.3.3PrivateAdaptation 370
Privateadaptationbehaviorsweremeasureddirectlyandindirectlyinthesurvey.We 371
askedhouseholdsdetailedquestionsaboutspecificchangesmadetoagriculturalpractices 372
andcropsinrecentyears.Adaptationacrossmultiplebehaviorsislikelycriticalforsuccess 373
(FalcoandVeronesi,2013b).Giventhatthereareavarietyofdifferentadaptation 374
behaviorsreportedbyhouseholds,weconstructedindicesofthese,usingasimplecount 375
methodandprincipalcomponentanalysis(PCA)onpolychoriccorrelations(Kolenikovand 376
17
Angeles,2004).Inthemainregressionanalysisonprivateadaptation,weusetwo 377
specificationsofthedependentvariable.The“adaptationindex”isasimplecount(sum) 378
indexoftwelveadaptationbehaviorcategories,including:Proportionofdifferentcrops; 379
Typeofseed(traditionalvs.improved);Timingofplanting;Timingofharvest;Methodof 380
farming;Numberoflivestock;Amountofcrops;Farmequipment/assets;Workforincome 381
outsidethefarm;Changetotalareaharvested;Fertilizeruse;and,Other.The“adaptation 382
PCAindex”isaprincipalcomponentanalysisindexofthesetwelveadaptationbehavior 383
categories.Theresultoftheprincipalcomponentanalysisisalsopresentedintheappendix 384
(TablesA7-A8). 385
3.3.4ControlVariables 386
Anumberofsocioeconomicanddemographiccharacteristicsarelikelytobeimportantin 387
adaptationbehaviors,namelywealthintheformofassets,animals(i.e.livestock),andland; 388
income;householdsizeandtheratioofdependents;andindividualcharacteristicsofthe 389
householdhead,includinggender,age,education,andmaritalstatus.Wethuscontrolfor 390
thesevariablesinourregressions. 391
3.4Hypothesesandanalyticalmethods 392
Wemakethefollowinghypotheses: 393
H1.Ifcommunitiesandhouseholdshavelimitedaccesstoandsupportfrom 394
governmentinstitutions,thenthereshouldbemorehouseholdandcommunity-level 395
adaptationthangovernment-ledadaptation. 396
H2.Thereisapositiveassociationbetweensurveyandexperimentalgame 397
measuresoftrust. 398
18
H3.Thereisapositiveassociationbetweentrustandadaptationforhouseholds 399
becausetrustincreasesexposuretonewandtestedadaptationoptions,andfor 400
communitiesbecauseitfacilitatescollectiveaction. 401
402
WeanalyzeH1usingqualitativedatafromlocalinterviewswithcommunity 403
representativesoftheinstitutionsrelevanttosocialcapitalandclimateadaptation.This 404
analysisprovidescontextforthehousehold-levelandcommunity-leveladaptation 405
hypotheses.Weevaluatetranscribedinterviewsfordominantthemes,whichinclude 406
communityconcerns,climatechangeawareness,conflictrelatedtoenvironmentalfactors, 407
andaparticularfocusonwater.Wealsostudythevillageinterviewstodeepeninsightson 408
thetypesofchangesfromyeartoyearwithinandbetweenvillages. 409
410
WeanalyzeH2andH3usinglinearregressionusinghouseholdsurveyandfield- 411
experimentaldata.Wecontrolforindividualcharacteristics,socioeconomiccovariatesat 412
thehouseholdlevelandclusterthestandarderrorsofallestimatesatthevillagelevel. 413
Villagefixedeffectscontrolforunobservedheterogeneityamongvillages.Inthetrust 414
experimentanalyses,weadditionallycontrolfortheriskpreferenceparameters. 415
416
TotestH2,i.e.,thatthereisapositiveassociationbetweenexperimentalmeasuresof 417
trust—intermsofproportionofmoneysentbyindividuali(Ai)—andthebinarysurvey 418
measuresofindividualtrust(X1,i),weestimatethemodelinequation(1),wheretheother 419
controlsincludeindividualriskpreferences(𝑋!,!),individualcharacteristics(X3,i),avector 420
ofcontrolsforhouseholdj(𝑊!),andfixedeffectsforeachdistinctvillagek(Zk): 421
19
422
𝐴! = 𝛼 + 𝛽!𝑋!,! + 𝛽!𝑋!,! + 𝛽!𝑋!,! + 𝛿𝑊! + 𝛾𝑍! + 𝜀!
423
ForH3,i.e.,thatthereisapositiveassociationbetweenadaptationatboththecommunity 424
andhouseholdlevels(Y)andtrust(X1,i),weevaluatethemodelshowninequation(2), 425
whereweagaincontrolforindividualriskpreferences(𝑋!,!),individualcharacteristics 426
(X3,i),householdlevelcharacteristics(𝑊!),andincludevillagefixedeffects(Zk): 427
𝑌! = 𝛼 + 𝜃!𝑋!,! + 𝜃!𝑋!,! + 𝜃!𝑋!,! + 𝜁𝑊! + 𝜐𝑍! + 𝜂!𝜀!
Wereiterate,however,thatouranalysisofobservationalandfield-experimentaldatacan 428
onlyestimatepartialcorrelationsbetweentheseparametersandadaptationoutcomes.In 429
otherwords,theusualsourcesofstatisticalendogeneity,viz.reversecausalityor 430
simultaneity,measurementerror,andunobservedheterogeneity,arealllikelyto 431
compromisethecausalidentificationoftheparametersofinterestinequations1and2. 432
433
4.Data 434
Forourregressionanalysis,weusehouseholdsurveydatafrom400households,andrisk 435
andtrustexperimentswith614maleandfemalehouseholdheadsfromhouseholdswho 436
participated.Thequalitativedatausedinthispaperincludesinterviewswithlocal 437
representativesineachofthe20villagesacrossthethreewaves(2012,2013,2014),fora 438
totalof51interviews(ninevillagesaremissingoneofthewavesbecausearepresentative 439
wasunabletobecontacted;butallvillageshaveatleasttwowavesofinterviews). 440
441
(1)
(2)
20
Villagesinourstudyhadanaveragepopulationofapproximately2000people.Households 442
hadonaverageof6.3members(adultsandchildren),withameanpercapitaincomeof 443
2623Birr(USD137),farbelowtheEthiopianaverageof8995Birr(USD470)(TheWorld 444
Bank,2014b).Eighty-ninepercentofstudyhouseholdsareOromo,themostpopulous 445
languagegroupinEthiopia,and51percentofhouseholdsareMuslim(ascomparedto34% 446
nation-wide(CIA,2015)).Householdscultivateonaverage3.4hectaresofland.The 447
primarycropsweremaize,wheat,andteff.AsummaryofkeystatisticsisreportedinTable 448
2. 449
450
Asdescribedabove,weuseavarietyofsurveyquestionstoassesssocialcapital 451
characteristics.Respondentsindicatedhighlevelsofcommunityparticipation,especiallyin 452
collectiveactivities:93%ofhouseholdssaidtheyregularlyparticipatedinactivitiesto 453
improvethecommunity.Nearly80%ofhouseholdsreportedparticipatinginacommunity 454
meetingwithinthetwoweeksprecedingthesurvey.Fourteenpercentofhouseholds 455
indicatedbeingactivemembersofreligiousgroups,withaboutequalparticipationamong 456
ChristiansandMuslims.Anothermeasureforassessingcooperativebehavioristhesharing 457
ofresourcesorlabor.Justoverhalf(52%)ofhouseholdssharefarmingequipment.About 458
78%ofrespondentsindicatethattheyexpectaloantoberepaidwhenitisgiventoothers. 459
460
Regardingtrust,40%ofallindividualmaleandfemalerespondentsreportedthatmost 461
peopleintheirvillagecanbetrusted,while23%reportedthatpeoplecannotbetrusted 462
(andtheremainingproportionindicatethat“itdepends”).Thisleveloftrustishigherthan 463
a2007WorldValuesSurveyinEthiopia,whichfound21%ofrespondentsstatingthatmost 464
21
peoplecanbetrusted,aswellasaglobalmeta-analysisestimateof32%(Johnsonand 465
Mislin,2012;WVS,2014).Inoursample,aswiththeWorldValuesSurveyresults,males 466
wereslightlymorelikelythanfemalestoreporttrustingothersintheirvillage(44%vs. 467
37%,t-testp<0.05).Inaddition,mostrespondents(61%)saidthatitwasnotatalllikely 468
thataneighborwouldreturnlostmoney(e.g.100Birr),butonly40%saiditwasnotatall 469
likelyaneighborwouldreturnalosthen(ananimalhavingsimilarvalue),whichmay 470
indicatevaryingnormsfordifferentitems,ormayreflectchallengesinmonitoring 471
ownershipoflessidentifiableassetssuchasmoney.Theseratesdidnotvarysubstantially 472
byreligion.Thesizablegroupofrespondentsreportinglowtrustofothersmayindicatea 473
significantchallengetocollectiveactionandsocialinsuranceinthesecommunities. 474
475
Ourfield-experimentalapproachallowsforadifferentwaytoevaluatetrustamongstudy 476
participants.ThemainresultsfromtheinvestmentgamearepresentedinFigure1.The 477
averageproportionoftheinitialendowmentthatwassentbyplayersinthefirststagewas 478
0.43.Thiswassomewhathigherthantheaverageproportionreturned,0.34,thoughthe 479
averagecashamountreturnedwassimilarduetothetriplingoftheamountsent.Men,on 480
average,sentandreturnedslightlyhigheramountsthanwomen(p<0.01).Theaverage 481
proportioninitiallysentwas0.47formalesand0.39forfemales,whiletheaverage 482
proportionreturnedwas0.37formalesand0.31forwomen(p<0.01).Sendersinthefirst 483
roundalsoshowedastrongtendencytosendhalfofthesum,acommonanchoridentified 484
inthesetypesofgames.Thecorrelationoftheproportionsentinthefirstroundtothe 485
proportionreturnedinthesecondroundis0.38.Theseresultsaresimilartothosefound 486
bySchechter(2007)inParaguay.Wewouldexpecttheretobearelationshipbetweenthe 487
22
“trust”behaviorinsendingtheinitialinvestment,andthe“trustworthy”behaviorofthe 488
altruisticreturn,butshouldnotexpecttheseparameterstobefullycorrelated. 489
4.1Constructionofthefinalanalyticalsample 490
Toavoidanalyzingoutcomesacrossdifferentsamples,ourfinalanalyticalsamplefor 491
regressionincludes360householdheadsofthe400householdsintheoriginalstudyfor 492
whomwehavethefullsetofexperimentalmeasuresoftrustandallothercovariates(as 493
describedaboveandlistedintable2).Weestimatedaregressionwithallhouseholds, 494
includingthosewithmissingdataforexperimentalmeasures(n=400),toseeifthese 495
householdsaresystematicallydifferentonothercovariatesfromthosewithfull 496
experimentaldata,andnocovariatesweresignificantatthep<.05level.Regressionswere 497
alsotestedforsensitivitytovariableswithoutliers,andtherewasnosignificantchangein 498
theregressionresults. 499
5.Results 500
5.1Community-LevelSocialCapital 501
Toevaluatetheimportanceofcommunity-levelsocialcapital,wetestH1,i.e.,thatthe 502
communitiesinourstudyhavelimitedaccesstogovernmentoroutsideinstitutionsand,in 503
theexampleofwater,dependprimarilyonlocalmobilizationofresourcestorespondto 504
hardship.Ourinterviewdatasuggestthatalargeproportion(45%)ofthecommunities 505
havelimitedaccesstogovernmentofficials(visitsbyofficialsonceamonthorrarer).Yet, 506
agriculturalandhealthextension,however,areprominentinstitutionsinEthiopia 507
includinginthesecommunities,withsignificantexpansioninreachoverthepriordecade 508
23
(Banteyerga,2011;Spielmanetal.,2011).Fortypercentofcommunitiesinthestudyhavea 509
fulltimeagriculturalextensionagent(knownasadevelopmentagent),butevenvillages 510
withoutanagentarevisitedatleastonceperweek.Villagerepresentativesreportedthat 511
developmentagentsmaydistributeorsellsubsidizedinputsiftheyhavethemavailable, 512
provideguidanceongovernmentrecommendationsorinstructions,andprovidetraining 513
onagriculturaltopics.Forty-fivepercentofstudycommunitieshaveafull-timecommunity 514
healthworker,andonlytwo(10%)receivelessthanweeklyhealthworkervisits. 515
516
Intheinterviewswithcommunityrepresentatives,theymostfrequentlycomplainedabout 517
poorattentionfromthewaterbureau.Onlythreevillages(15%)receivedevenmonthly 518
visitsfromwaterbureaurepresentatives,andonestatedthatwhile“thewaterbureau 519
comestoteachskills…therehasn’tbeenameetingthisyear”(Authors’Interview, 520
December2011).Onevillagerepresentativenotedthatthoughthewater“bureautakes 521
samples,buttheydonotreport”theresultstothecommunity”(Authors’Interview, 522
January2012).Anothersaid“wehavecommunicated[ourconcerns]withtheworeda 523
waterbureaumeetinginZiway,butthebureaudoesnotgiveanyresponse,sowehavehad 524
nofurthercommunication.Wedon’texpectapositiveresponse”(Authors’Interview, 525
February2014).Thelackofcommunicationisimportantbecausethewaterbureau 526
representativesbothperformmaintenanceactivitiesanddetermineprioritiesorallocation 527
ofgovernmentresourcesforwatersourcedevelopmentandimprovement.Some 528
communitiesreportedthattheyweresuccessfulinreportingproblemstothewater 529
bureau,butthatrepairstookmultiplemonths,astherearenotenoughtechnicians 530
(Authors’Interviews,January2012).Yet,manycommunityrepresentativescomplainedin 531
24
interviewsaboutnotreceivinganysupportorcommunicationfromthewaterbureau,even 532
whenthecommunityinitiatedaninquiry.Onecommunityleadersaid,“thegovernment 533
doesnotassistthem,andthewaterbureau‘knowsnothing.’Thewaterbureaudoesn’t 534
matter;itisjustasymbolicorganization”(Authors’Interview,January2012).Another 535
communitysaidtheyweretoldtostopdrinkingthewaterduetopoorquality,“butwere 536
notofferedanalternative”(Authors’Interview,February2013).Anothercommunity, 537
whosewellhadnotbeenworkingforeightmonthsasked“thewaterbureauforhelp,but 538
theyhavenot,”andsothecommunityrepresentativesalso“talkedtoanNGOsevenmonths 539
back,whichsaidtheywouldhelp,buttheNGOhasnotcome”(Authors’Interview,February 540
2013). 541
542
Withregardstowatersupply(aprimaryconcernofthesecommunities),ofthe12 543
communitiesthathadawell,fourhadserviceinterruptionsduringthethreeyearsofthe 544
studyperiod,andofthose,tworeportedhavingtroublegettingassistancefromthe 545
relevantagency(eitherthewaterbureauoranNGO)torestorewatersupplies.Sevenofthe 546
20communitiesreportedhavingtroublegettingassistancefromtheWaterBureaumore 547
generally.Manycommunitiesreportedthattheymustraiseallofthefundsneededfor 548
repairslocally;suchrepairsareoftencostlyandthusrequirestrongcollectiveaction.One 549
communitysaidtheyhad“reportedtheproblemtotheWaterBureau,andsomeonehas 550
cometwice,buthasnotfixedit.Thecommunitywilltrytogathermoneytofixourselves: 551
thisisourpersonalproblem”(Authors’Interview,February2013). 552
553
25
SomecommunitiesmentionedgettingoccasionalhelpfromNGOswhenfacedwithwater 554
supplyproblems,butmostwereheavilyreliantontheirownsavings,whichtypically 555
resultedindelayedrepairsandconsequentwatershortages.Inonecommunity,villagers 556
experiencingmonthsofwatershortageduetoabrokenpumpwouldhavetotravelfor 557
threehoursfordrinkingwaterandninehoursforlivestocktogetwater(Authors’ 558
Interview,January2012).Representativesfromcommunitieswhosoughthelpfromthe 559
waterbureaudescribedhavingtowaitfordaysintheworedaseatforthewaterbureauto 560
respond,andthenhavetocompensatethetechnicianforhistravelandperdiem.One 561
community“sent2peopletothewaterbureauofficefor6daystopetitionforhelp” 562
(Authors’Interview,February2013).Anotherwatermanagerdescribedthatwhena 563
techniciancomes,“wehavetopaytheperdiemheasksfor.Ifthetechnicianasksfor500B, 564
wepayitaswecan’targue”(Authors’Interview,December2011).Notably,thewater 565
bureauofficialsalsoemphasizedtheirextremelylimitedresourcesforrespondingto 566
communityneeds,includingaproblemofinsufficientvehicles(motorbikes)andmoneyfor 567
fuelneededtoreachremotevillages. 568
569
Anothermeasurementofengagementwithgovernmentinstitutionsishowthecommunity 570
dealswithconflict.Forlessseriousviolations,communitiesrelyoneldersandsocial 571
ostracizingtopunishthoseheldresponsibleforaconflict.Ifaconflictwastooseriousor 572
unabletoberesolved,thencommunityleaderssaidthattheywouldseektheassistanceof 573
thepoliceandformaljusticesystem.Acrossthetwentycommunities,15(75%)had 574
communityelderswhowerenotedasanauthorityforresolvingconflict,ascomparedto 575
only11(55%)mentioningofficialgovernment(kebeleandworeda)leaders. 576
26
577
Thehousehold-levelsurveydataareconsistentwiththevillage-leveldataindicatinglow 578
levelsofgovernmentinvolvement.Whenconfrontedwithworseningconditions,suchas 579
waterandfoodsupply,lessthan10%ofindividualhouseholdssurveyedsaidtheysought 580
helpfromthelocalornationalgovernment,andmostlyenduredgreaterhardship.Notably, 581
fewhouseholdsindicatedseekinghelpfromthecommunitywhenaffectedbypoor 582
environmentalconditions,andmostlyindicatedself-relianceandhardship.Only29%of 583
householdshaddirectinteractionwithgovernmentofficialsapartfromhealthand 584
developmentagents,yetsixtypercentofhouseholdsreportedhavingreceivedsomeform 585
ofgovernmentassistance,however,primarilyhealthcare,education,andfoodassistance. 586
Fifteenpercentofhouseholdshadreceivedfoodandnutritionaid,and17%hadreceived 587
governmenttraining.Theseresultssuggestthatgovernmentisneitherabsentnor 588
prominentinthelivesofthestudyhouseholds.Overall,ourqualitativeresultsfromthe 589
interviewsandsurveyssupportthehypothesisthatcommunitiesinourstudyhavelimited 590
accessandsupportfromgovernmentinstitutionsforclimate-relatedadaptation,especially 591
asitrelatestomanagementofwaterresources,andthereforemustdrawoninternal 592
resourcestomeetmanyoftheirneeds. 593
594
5.2TrustMeasurementResults(Hypothesis2) 595
ForH2,wetestthenullhypothesisofnoassociationbetweensurveyandexperimental 596
measuresoftrust(Table3).Inthiscase,arejectionofthenullduetoapositivecoefficient 597
wouldprovideevidenceinfavorofH2.Thecoefficientofexperimentaltrustregressedon 598
surveytrustispositive,asexpected,butitismodestinsizeandnotstatisticallysignificant. 599
27
Thelackofastatisticallysignificantrelationshipbetweentheexperimentalandsurvey 600
measuresoftrustmayindicatethattheexperimentwasnotwellunderstood,thatthe 601
experimentalresultsprimarilyreflectriskpreferences(giventhatrespondentsmay 602
considertheinvestmentsenttoananonymouscommunitymembertoberisky),orthatthe 603
surveyandexperimentaltrustvariablesrelatetodifferentconstructs.Forexample,the 604
experimentalmeasuremaybespecifictosharedfinancialinvestments,whereasthesurvey 605
measuresmaymeasuremoregeneraltrustinotherpeople.Alternatively,thelackof 606
relationshipmayindicatethatthesurveyquestionsdonotyieldreliablemeasuresoftrust, 607
giventhattheyarefilteredthroughsubjectiveperceptionsandarepossiblyinfluencedby 608
respondent-enumeratorinteractionsordifferingrelativeconceptionsofwhattheword 609
“trust”actuallymeans.Thedivisionbetweenprivateandcommunitybenefitsofsocial 610
capitalmayalsoaffecttheresults.Thesurveyquestionsareaboutgeneralizedtrustand 611
communityactivities,whereastheexperimentalgameoutcomeresultsinaprivategain 612
fromtrustingbehavior,thesetoolsmaymeasuresomewhatdifferentcharacteristics. 613
Interestingly,neithersurveynorexperimentalmeasuresoftrustappearsignificantly 614
relatedtoriskpreferences. 615
616
5.3TrustandAdaptationResults(Hypothesis3) 617
Forhypothesis3,wetestwhetherthereisapositiveassociationbetweentrustandboth 618
communalandprivateadaptationactivities.Ourmainresultsforcommunaladaptationare 619
displayedinTable4.Theseresultssuggestthatobservationalmeasuresoftrust 620
significantlypredictcontributiontopublicgoods,andcollectiveactionthatmaysupport 621
adaptation,bothintermsofparticipationandcontributionsofmoney.Thisisconsistent 622
28
withthehypothesizedroleofsocialcapitalincollectiveaction.Wedonotfindevidenceofa 623
similarrelationshipbetweenourexperimentalmeasureoftrustandparticipationin 624
communityadaptationormonetarycontributionstopublicgoods.Intheappendix(Tables 625
A1-A3),wepresentadditionalresultsthattesttherobustnessoftherelationships 626
identifiedinTable4usingalternativemeasuresofcommunityparticipationfromdifferent 627
surveyyears,orbasedonanindexofparticipation,andalternativemeasuresof 628
contributions(fromdifferentsurveyyears).Wealsotestwhetherresultsaresensitiveto 629
theinclusionofcontrolsandvillagefixedeffects.Generallyspeaking,wefindthatthe 630
resultsareinsensitivetotheinclusionofthelattervariables,butthatsurveytrustfrom 631
2013isonlyweaklyrelatedtoparticipationandcontributionsin2014.Moreover,survey 632
trusthasaweaknegativerelationshipwiththeparticipationindex,whichislargelydriven 633
byarelativelysmallnumberofhouseholdswhoreportbothparticipationinmany 634
activitiesandlowtrust.Theexperimentaltrustmeasuresremaininsignificantacrossallof 635
theseadditionalanalyses.AlsonoteworthyisthefactthattheR-squaredvaluesarelow; 636
thisisnotuncommonincross-sectionalanalysesofheterogeneoussocio-economic 637
variables,butitneverthelesssuggeststhatourmodelsexplainrelativelylittleofthe 638
varianceinouroutcomevariables.Thisisconsistentwiththeideathatthereremain 639
unobservedfactors,suchasconfidenceininformationaboutadaptation,thatinform 640
decisionstoundertakeadaptationbehaviorsbesidesthesocialcapitalandothercontrol 641
variablesincludedinourmodelspecifications.Thequalitativeinterviewssuggestthata 642
varietyofsourcesofinformation,fromgovernment,traditionalknowledge,andpeers 643
influenceadaptationdecisionmakingbyindividualhouseholds. 644
645
29
Despitethepositivelinkbetweensurveytrustandparticipationandcontributions,survey 646
trustisnegativelyrelatedtoprivateadaptationbehaviorsasmeasuredthroughthetwo 647
indicesofthesebehaviors(Table5).Thisresultsuggeststhatsocialcapitalmaybe 648
detrimentaltoprivateadaptation.Theexperimentaltrustmeasuresareagainnot 649
significantlyrelatedtotheseoutcomes,butalsohavenegativesignsforbothprivateand 650
communaladaptationactivities.Inadditionalrobustnesschecks(AppendixTablesA4-A6), 651
wefindsomeconsistencywiththepatternsdescribedaboveforcommunityparticipation 652
andcontributions,inthattheresultsdonotappearsensitivetoinclusionofcontrols.Yet 653
therelationshipsareweaklypositivebetweenlongertermmeasuresofadaptationand 654
surveytrust.Thissuggeststheneedforadditionallongitudinalworktobetterunderstand 655
therelationshipsbetweenthesevariablesovertime. 656
657
Finally,wenotethatintheanalyses,therisklossparameter(lambdainTable5andin 658
TablesA4-A6)isconsistentlyandsignificantlyrelatedtodifferentmeasuresofprivate 659
adaptation:thehigherthelossaversion,thegreatertheengagementinprivateadaptation 660
behaviors.Socioeconomicfactorssuchaseducationandwealtharepositively,if 661
insignificantly,associatedwithbothformsofadaptation.Landarea,however,isnegatively 662
associatedwithprivateadaptation,whichmayreflectthehighimplementationcostof 663
adaptation,ormayindicatethatlargerlandownershipprovidesgreaterintrinsic 664
diversificationorbufferagainstshocks. 665
30
6.Conclusions 666
667
Weinvestigatedtherelationshipbetweensocialcapitalandclimateadaptation-relevant 668
behaviorsusingsurveyandexperimentalmeasuresoftrust.Insodoing,wefoundthata 669
surveymeasureoftrustispositivelyandsignificantlyrelatedtoengagementin 670
community-improvingactivities,butnegativelyandsignificantlyrelatedtoprivate 671
household-leveladaptationactivities.Thismaystemfromthefactthatpeoplewhocanrely 672
oncommunitymembersarelesslikelytotrynewactivitiesasindividuals,orthat 673
individualswhoengageinindividualadaptationarelesslikelytoengagewiththe 674
community,evenwhencontrollingforwealth.Anegativerelationshipbetweenhousehold 675
adaptationandtrustissurprising,asitsuggeststhepossibilitythatsocialcapitalis 676
unhelpfulorevendetrimentaltoadaptation.Conversely,trustandsocialcapitalcouldbe 677
consideredtosubstituteforprivateadaptation. 678
679
Asathirdalternative,andbecauseourstudycannotestablishcausalrelationships,the 680
negativerelationshipofhouseholdadaptationandtrustmayreflectanerosionoftrustdue 681
toprivateadaptation,ortheinfluenceofotheromittedvariablesthatarepositively 682
correlatedwithtrustthatalsoimpedeadaptation.Ourinterviewswithcommunity 683
representativessuggestthatgovernmentprogramsandinstructionsareconsidered 684
importantwhentheyoccur,thoughtheydonotoccuratahighfrequency.Ifgovernment 685
instructionsdictateactivitiesrelatedtoclimateadaptation,thismightalterpatternsof 686
privateadaptation.Withregardstomeasurementofhouseholdbehaviorand 687
characteristics,wefoundastatisticallyinsignificantrelationshipbetweensurveyand 688
31
experimentalmeasuresoftrust,suggestingthatfurtherdevelopmentoftheorylinking 689
socialcapitalandtrust,andadditionalempiricaltoolstomeasuretheseconstructs,maybe 690
necessary.Simulationsandinteractiveactivitiessimilartothetrustexperimentmayhave 691
thedualeffectofindicatingthelevelofsocialcapitalandprovidinganopportunityto 692
enhancecooperation. 693
694
Analternativepossiblecritiqueoftheunderlyingtheoreticallinkbetweensocialcapital 695
andadaptationarisesfromconcernsovertheeffectivenessofsocialcapitalforachieving 696
betteroutcomesatthehouseholdlevel.Itisusefultoconsidersocialcapitalasaformof 697
value,becausetheabilitytoshareknowledge,cooperate,andshareotherformsofcapital 698
remainsuseful,evenifallhouseholdsarenegativelyaffectedbyaclimate-relatedstresses. 699
Anotherpossibilityisthatsocialcapitalpresentsananalyticalparadoxifsmallerandmore 700
homogenousgroupshavegreatersocialcapitalorpossibilityofcollectiveaction.Theeffect 701
ofheterogeneitywithinagroupiscomplex,however,andinconsistent(Olson,1971; 702
PoteeteandOstrom,2004).Socialcapitalmayhavevalueforexplainingadaptivecapacity, 703
butatruetestofthecausalimpactofsocialcapitalrequiresexogenousmodificationof 704
socialrelationships,whichisdifficulttodoinanysetting. 705
706
AnempiricalimplicationofthisworkfortheEthiopiancontextisthatpolicymakersshould 707
beawareofthepotentialheterogeneityinsocialcapitalanditseffects:socialcapitalisnot 708
necessarilyuniformlygood,yetneitherisitunimportant.Socialcapitalmaybeusefulin 709
somesettings,butnotusefulorevendetrimentalinothers.Fromtheinterviewandsurvey 710
data,itisclearthatruralEthiopiansincommunitiessimilartothoseinthisstudystillhave 711
32
limitedsupportfromthestate,particularlyasdocumentedinthecaseofwatersupplies. 712
Givenourmainfindingthatsuggestsadifferencebetweenthoseengagedinhousehold 713
adaptationandthoseengagedincommunityadaptation,Ethiopianpolicymakersshouldbe 714
awareoftheimpactsofdifferentformsofadaptationbeingpromoted. 715
716
Whileitisunclearifpolicyshouldorcanbeusedtoincreasesocialcapitalwithregardsto 717
adaptation,someresearchsuggestsusefulinterventionsinthisarena,suchasinstitutional 718
designforparticipationandcommunitybuildingactivities(Aldrich,2012;Ostrom,1992; 719
Putnam,2001).Futureresearchinvolvingmultiplequalitativeandquantitativemethods,as 720
usedthisinthispaper,canbetteridentifytherelevantvariablesinfluencingclimate 721
adaptationbehavior.Further,usingmixedmethodsatmultiplescales,thoughintensivein 722
timeandresources,generatesmorerelevantpolicyprescriptions.Local-levelpolicymaking 723
istheappropriatescaleatwhichtointegratesocialcapitalintoclimateadaptation,yetitis 724
importanttodrawuponacomparativeperspectiveofexperiencesofadaptationinother 725
locationsandatdifferentpolicyscales(VogelandHenstra,2015).Policymakersmayneed 726
toaccountformultiplescalesandformsofadaptation,fortheindividual,household,and 727
community,whendesigninginterventions. 728
33
Figures 729 730
Figure1.TrustGameProportionSentandReturned 731
732
Note:Pooledsampleisdrivenbymaleresults,as82%ofhouseholdheadsweremale. 733
TablesTable1.SurveyQuestionsforKeyVariablesKeyIndependentVariables
Variable/QuestionText
Generaltrust(survey) “Ingeneral,wouldyousaythatmostpeopleinyourvillagecanbetrustedorthatyoucannottrustpeopleinyourvillage?”
CommunityParticipation
“Doyouoranymembersofyourhouseholdparticipateinanyactivitiesforimprovingyourcommunity(outsidetheimmediatelimitsofyourhouse)?”
Totaladaptationchanges
Anindexofresponsesto“Inthelast10years,ifyouhavechanged[PRACTICE],forwhatreasondidyoudoso?(Markallthatapply)”
Covariates PlayerMale Whatisyourgender?PlayerAge Whatisyourage?PlayerEducationLevel Whatisyourhighestlevelofschooling?PlayerMarried Areyoumarried?HouseholdSize NumberofmemberslistedondetailedrosterTotalLandArea(Ha) Sumof“Whatistheareaof[each]plotyouownor
rent?”DependencyRatio Ratioofnumberofdependentsunder16onrosterto
householdsizeNumberofBovineOwned
Howmanycows,bulls,oxen,andcalvesdoyouown?
Income “Pleaseestimatethetotalamountofmoneyyourhouseholdreceivesinanaverageyear”
HHAssets Thesumoftotalvalueoftenkeyassettypes(e.g.furniture,technology,transportation)
Table2.DescriptiveStatisticsofHouseholdSurveyData Variable Obs Mean Std.Dev. Min Max KeyIndependentVariables Generaltrust(survey) 360 0.42 0.49 0 1 ExperimentalTrust(ProportionSent) 360 0.45 0.24 0 1 CommunityParticipation 360 0.94 0.27 0 1 CommunityContribution 360 0.43 0.50 0 1 Householdadaptationchanges(simpleindex) 360 4.50 3.26 0 12 Householdadaptationchanges(PCAindex) 360 -0.20 1.54 -2.32 3.43 Covariates Riskalphaparameter 360 0.70 0.19 0.05 1.45 Risksigmaparameter 360 1.23 0.34 0.05 1.5 Risklambdaparameter 360 1.53 1.93 0.12 7.85 PlayerMale 360 0.82 0.38 0 1 PlayerAge 360 40.84 16.75 14 101 PlayerEducationLevel 360 1.60 1.57 0 6 PlayerMarried 360 0.84 0.36 0 1 HouseholdSize 360 6.37 2.36 1 15 TotalLandArea(Ha) 360 3.49 12.13 0 201.5 DependencyRatio 360 0.46 0.23 0 1.5 NumberofBovineOwned 360 4.77 6.79 0 81 IncomePerCapita(Birr) 360 2645 18289 0 345015 LogofIncomePerCapita 360 7.0 1.06 2.01 12.75 HouseholdAssetPerCapita 360 278.43 762.599 0 11576.7 LogofHouseholdAssetPerCapita 360 4.39 1.84 -2.30 9.36
36
Table3.SurveyandExperimentalTrustMeasures (1) (2) (3) (4)VARIABLES Experimentaltrust Surveytrust Experimentaltrust Experimentaltrust Riskalpha -0.173 0.0245 0.0298 (0.183) (0.0573) (0.0570)Risksigma -0.00369 -0.00665 -0.00654 (0.0977) (0.0389) (0.0402)Risklambda -0.00258 0.00840 0.00848 (0.0146) (0.00638) (0.00641)Surveytrust 0.0279 0.0304 (0.0259) (0.0251)Constant 0.330*** 0.425* 0.345*** 0.332*** (0.0109) (0.224) (0.107) (0.109) Observations 360 360 360 360R-squared 0.211 0.118 0.254 0.257Controls No Yes Yes YesVillageFixedEffects Yes Yes Yes YesVillageClusteredStandardError Yes Yes Yes YesNotes:***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1 Robuststandarderrorsinparentheses.OrdinaryLeastSquares(OLS)Model.Controls:Male,Age,Education,MaritalStatus,HouseholdSize,LogLandArea,DependencyRatio,Livestock,LogIncomePerCapita,LogHouseholdAssets.
37
Table4.TrustandCommunityAdaptation
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)VARIABLES Community
ParticipationCommunityParticipation
CommunityParticipation
CommunityContribution
CommunityContribution
CommunityContribution
Surveytrust 0.0482** 0.0499** 0.161** 0.156** (0.0187) (0.0189) (0.0678) (0.0678)Experimentaltrust -0.0492 -0.0568 0.187 0.163 (0.0404) (0.0429) (0.124) (0.135)Riskalpha -0.0828 -0.0899 -0.0811 -0.0425 -0.0749 -0.0474 (0.0795) (0.0847) (0.0810) (0.131) (0.140) (0.130)Risksigma 0.0628 0.0623 0.0624 0.0654 0.0660 0.0665 (0.0633) (0.0621) (0.0630) (0.108) (0.106) (0.105)Risklambda 0.00875 0.00904 0.00923 0.0245* 0.0225 0.0231 (0.00614) (0.00626) (0.00625) (0.0136) (0.0141) (0.0135)Constant 0.720*** 0.758*** 0.739*** -0.433 -0.429 -0.487* (0.196) (0.187) (0.193) (0.258) (0.254) (0.253) Observations 360 360 360 360 360 360R-squared 0.220 0.213 0.222 0.170 0.154 0.175Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesVillageFixedEffects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesVillageClusteredStandardError
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Notes:***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1 Robuststandarderrorsinparentheses.OrdinaryLeastSquares(OLS)Model.Controls:Male,Age,Education,MaritalStatus,HouseholdSize,LogLandArea,DependencyRatio,Livestock,LogIncomePerCapita,LogHouseholdAssets.
38
Table5.TrustandPrivateAdaptation (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)VARIABLES Adaptation
IndexAdaptationIndex
AdaptationIndex
AdaptationPCAIndex
AdaptationPCAIndex
AdaptationPCAIndex
Surveytrust -0.973** -0.956** -0.456** -0.448** (0.377) (0.369) (0.179) (0.175)Experimentaltrust -0.687 -0.542 -0.315 -0.247 (0.752) (0.758) (0.358) (0.358)Riskalpha 0.0154 0.200 0.0315 0.00729 0.0937 0.0146 (0.996) (0.984) (0.983) (0.476) (0.471) (0.469)Risksigma 0.493 0.492 0.489 0.229 0.228 0.227 (0.598) (0.592) (0.599) (0.278) (0.275) (0.279)Risklambda 0.187** 0.196** 0.192** 0.0850** 0.0888** 0.0871** (0.0721) (0.0718) (0.0708) (0.0340) (0.0339) (0.0334)Constant 0.672 0.495 0.852 -1.948 -2.033 -1.866 (2.519) (2.578) (2.639) (1.181) (1.210) (1.239) Observations 360 360 360 360 360 360R-squared 0.182 0.164 0.183 0.177 0.160 0.178Controls Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesVillageFixedEffects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesVillageClusteredStandardError
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Notes:***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1 Robuststandarderrorsinparentheses.OrdinaryLeastSquares(OLS)Model.Controls:Male,Age,Education,MaritalStatus,HouseholdSize,LogLandArea,DependencyRatio,Livestock,LogIncomePerCapita,LogHouseholdAssets.
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Appendix:Additionalrobustnesschecks
TableA1.CommunityParticipation (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)VARIABLES Community
ParticipationCommunityParticipation
CommunityParticipation
CommunityParticipation
CommunityParticipation2014
CommunityParticipation2014
Surveytrust 0.0709*** 0.0499** 0.0482** 0.0584* 0.0338 (0.0219) (0.0189) (0.0187) (0.0304) (0.0291)Experimentaltrust -0.0102 -0.0568 -0.0492 0.0122 -0.0397 (0.0424) (0.0429) (0.0404) (0.0836) (0.0723)Riskalpha -0.0811 -0.0828 -0.0899 -0.0630 (0.0810) (0.0795) (0.0847) (0.0582)Risksigma 0.0624 0.0628 0.0623 -0.0206 (0.0630) (0.0633) (0.0621) (0.0521)Risklambda 0.00923 0.00875 0.00904 0.00613 (0.00625) (0.00614) (0.00626) (0.0116)Constant 0.974*** 0.739*** 0.720*** 0.758*** 0.914*** 0.624*** (0.0175) (0.193) (0.196) (0.187) (0.0317) (0.156) Observations 360 360 360 360 347 347R-squared 0.070 0.222 0.220 0.213 0.109 0.238Controls No Yes Yes Yes No YesVillageFixedEffects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesVillageClusteredStandardError
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Robuststandarderrorsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1
OrdinaryLeastSquares(OLS)ModelControls:Male,Age,Education,MaritalStatus,HouseholdSize,LogLandArea,DependencyRatio,Livestock,LogIncomePerCapita,Log
HouseholdAssetsThedependentvariable“communityparticipation”isabinaryvariablefromthesurveyquestion“Doyouoranymembersofyourhouseholdparticipateinanyactivitiesforimprovingyourcommunity(outsidetheimmediatelimitsofyourhouse)?”.Regressions1-4usethe2013survey,regressions5-6usethe2014surveyquestionregressedonthe2013covariates.
45
TableA2.CommunityParticipationIndex
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)VARIABLES Participation
IndexParticipation
IndexParticipation
IndexParticipation
IndexParticipationPCA
IndexParticipationPCA
Index Surveytrust -0.133 -0.315* -0.341* -0.0221 -0.114 (0.157) (0.169) (0.182) (0.0837) (0.102)Experimentaltrust -0.540 -0.859 -0.907 -0.431 -0.521 (0.509) (0.597) (0.602) (0.311) (0.344)Riskalpha -0.196 -0.221 -0.140 -0.119 (0.537) (0.552) (0.552) (0.372)Risksigma -0.240 -0.235 -0.239 -0.0738 (0.531) (0.523) (0.537) (0.289)Risklambda 0.0136 0.00631 0.0148 0.0280 (0.0985) (0.0979) (0.0983) (0.0555)Constant 5.715*** -0.715 -1.000 -0.832 0.556*** -1.965** (0.199) (1.624) (1.537) (1.661) (0.117) (0.797) Observations 360 360 360 360 360 360R-squared 0.056 0.209 0.204 0.205 0.059 0.157Controls No Yes Yes Yes Yes YesVillageFixedEffects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesVillageClusteredStandardError
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Robuststandarderrorsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1
OrdinaryLeastSquares(OLS)ModelControls:Male,Age,Education,MaritalStatus,HouseholdSize,LogLandArea,DependencyRatio,Livestock,LogIncomePerCapita,Log
HouseholdAssetsThedependentvariable“participationindex”isasimplecount(sum)indexoftwelveadaptationbehaviorcategories,including:Sweepingpublicstreets;Cleaningdrains;Cleaningwatersources;Cleaningschoolarea;Removinggarbage;Plantingtrees;Cleaningcommunitylatrines;Wellmaintenance;Securitypatrols;Terracing;Bridgeorroadmaintenance;WaterConservation;Constructwaterharvesting.“ParticipationPCAindex”isapolychoriccomponentanalysis(PCA)indexofthesecategories.
46
TableA3.CommunityContribution (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)VARIABLES Community
ContributionCommunityContribution
CommunityContribution
CommunityContribution
CommunityContribution2014
CommunityContribution2014
Surveytrust 0.181*** 0.156** 0.161** 0.00926 0.00340 (0.0625) (0.0678) (0.0678) (0.0434) (0.0425)Experimentaltrust 0.185 0.163 0.187 0.126 0.0755 (0.124) (0.135) (0.124) (0.101) (0.0976)Riskalpha -0.0474 -0.0425 -0.0749 (0.130) (0.131) (0.140) Risksigma 0.0665 0.0654 0.0660 (0.105) (0.108) (0.106) Risklambda 0.0231 0.0245* 0.0225 (0.0135) (0.0136) (0.0141) Constant 0.123*** -0.487* -0.433 -0.429 0.397*** 0.0847 (0.0419) (0.253) (0.258) (0.254) (0.0392) (0.313) Observations 360 360 360 360 347 347R-squared 0.113 0.175 0.170 0.154 0.033 0.079Controls No Yes Yes Yes No YesVillageFixedEffects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesVillageClusteredStandardError
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Robuststandarderrorsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1
OrdinaryLeastSquares(OLS)ModelControls:Male,Age,Education,MaritalStatus,HouseholdSize,LogLandArea,DependencyRatio,Livestock,LogIncomePerCapita,Log
HouseholdAssets
Thedependentvariable“communitycontribution”isabinaryvariablefromthesurveyquestion“Doesyourhouseholdcontributetovillageactivitiesorserviceswithmoneyorotherdonationsinthepastyear?Regressions1-4usethe2013survey,regressions5-6usethe2014surveyquestionregressedonthe2013covariates.
47
TableA4.HouseholdAdaptationSimpleIndex (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)VARIABLES Adaptation
IndexAdaptationIndex
AdaptationIndex
AdaptationIndex
Adaptation2014Index
Adaptation2014Index
Surveytrust -0.851** -0.956** -0.973** 0.0649 0.0413 (0.352) (0.369) (0.377) (0.115) (0.116)Experimentaltrust -0.758 -0.542 -0.687 0.108 0.0586 (0.844) (0.758) (0.752) (0.189) (0.156)Riskalpha 0.0315 0.0154 0.200 0.00142 (0.983) (0.996) (0.984) (0.255)Risksigma 0.489 0.493 0.492 0.325** (0.599) (0.598) (0.592) (0.132)Risklambda 0.192** 0.187** 0.196** 0.0269 (0.0708) (0.0721) (0.0718) (0.0322)Constant 4.828*** 0.852 0.672 0.495 0.304*** -1.072** (0.339) (2.639) (2.519) (2.578) (0.0839) (0.483) Observations 360 360 360 360 360 360R-squared 0.123 0.183 0.182 0.164 0.069 0.124Controls No Yes Yes Yes No YesVillageFixedEffects Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes YesVillageClusteredStandardError
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Robuststandarderrorsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1
OrdinaryLeastSquares(OLS)ModelControls:Male,Age,Education,MaritalStatus,HouseholdSize,LogLandArea,DependencyRatio,Livestock,LogIncomePerCapita,Log
HouseholdAssets
Thedependentvariable“adaptationindex”isasimplecount(sum)indexoftwelveadaptationbehaviorcategories,including:Proportionofdifferentcrops;Typeofseed(traditionalvs.improved);Timingofplanting;Timingofharvest;Methodoffarming;Numberoflivestock;Amountofcrops;Farmequipment/assets;Workforincomeoutsidethefarm;Changetotalareaharvested;Fertilizeruse;and,Other.Forregressions1-4,thisindexwasgeneratedfromthe2013surveydataforadaptationsdoneovertheprior10years.Forregression5-6,theindexwasgeneratedfrom2014surveydataforadaptationsovertheprior5years.
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TableA5.HouseholdAdaptationPCAIndex
(1) (2) (3) (4)VARIABLES AdaptationPCAIndex AdaptationPCAIndex AdaptationPCAIndex AdaptationPCAIndex Surveytrust -0.401** -0.448** -0.456** (0.166) (0.175) (0.179) Experimentaltrust -0.354 -0.247 -0.315 (0.397) (0.358) (0.358)Riskalpha 0.0146 0.00729 0.0937 (0.469) (0.476) (0.471)Risksigma 0.227 0.229 0.228 (0.279) (0.278) (0.275)Risklambda 0.0871** 0.0850** 0.0888** (0.0334) (0.0340) (0.0339)Constant -0.0722 -1.866 -1.948 -2.033 (0.161) (1.239) (1.181) (1.210) Observations 360 360 360 360R-squared 0.120 0.178 0.177 0.160Controls No Yes Yes YesVillageFixedEffects Yes Yes Yes YesVillageClusteredStandardError Yes Yes Yes Yes
Robuststandarderrorsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1
OrdinaryLeastSquares(OLS)ModelControls:Male,Age,Education,MaritalStatus,HouseholdSize,LogLandArea,DependencyRatio,Livestock,LogIncomePerCapita,Log
HouseholdAssets
Thedependentvariable“adaptationPCAindex”isapolychoriccomponentanalysis(PCA)indexoftwelveadaptationbehaviorcategories,including:Proportionofdifferentcrops;Typeofseed(traditionalvs.improved);Timingofplanting;Timingofharvest;Methodoffarming;Numberoflivestock;Amountofcrops;Farmequipment/assets;Workforincomeoutsidethefarm;Changetotalareaharvested;Fertilizer
use;and,Other.Thisindexwasgeneratedfromthe2013surveydataforadaptationsdoneovertheprior10years.
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TableA6.HouseholdAdaptationBinary (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)VARIABLES Adaptation
10yrbinaryAdaptation10yrbinary
Adaptation10yrbinary
Adaptation10yrbinary
Adaptation20145yrBinary
Adaptation20145yrBinary
Adaptation1yr2014Binary
Adaptation1yr2014Binary
Surveytrust 0.0205 0.00159 0.00224 0.124** 0.0963* 0.0842* 0.0614 (0.0502) (0.0510) (0.0501) (0.0537) (0.0480) (0.0447) (0.0418)Experimentaltrust 0.0558 0.0214 0.0216 0.209 0.185 0.133* 0.0875 (0.0897) (0.0923) (0.0900) (0.122) (0.116) (0.0724) (0.0868)Riskalpha 0.134 0.135 0.134 0.0132 -0.0319 (0.0961) (0.0971) (0.0989) (0.162) (0.133)Risksigma 0.120* 0.120* 0.120* 0.189** 0.158*** (0.0654) (0.0649) (0.0654) (0.0793) (0.0517)Risklambda 0.0317*** 0.0319*** 0.0317*** 0.0207 0.0188 (0.00924) (0.00924) (0.00929) (0.0215) (0.0133)Constant 0.709*** 0.228 0.235 0.228 0.350*** -0.444 0.182*** -0.286 (0.0314) (0.249) (0.248) (0.249) (0.0483) (0.281) (0.0326) (0.223) Observations 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 360R-squared 0.069 0.137 0.137 0.137 0.100 0.187 0.076 0.147Controls No Yes Yes Yes No Yes No YesVillageFixedEffects
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
VillageClusteredStandardError
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Robuststandarderrorsinparentheses***p<0.01,**p<0.05,*p<0.1
OrdinaryLeastSquares(OLS)ModelControls:Male,Age,Education,MaritalStatus,HouseholdSize,LogLandArea,DependencyRatio,Livestock,LogIncomePerCapita,Log
HouseholdAssetsThedependentvariable“adaptationbinary”isabinaryvariableindicatingactionofatleastoneoftwelveadaptationbehaviorcategories,including:Proportionofdifferentcrops;Typeofseed(traditionalvs.improved);Timingofplanting;Timingofharvest;Methodoffarming;Numberoflivestock;Amountofcrops;Farmequipment/assets;Workforincomeoutsidethefarm;Changetotalareaharvested;Fertilizeruse;and,Other.Forregressions1-4,thisindexwasgeneratedfromthe2013surveydataforadaptationsdoneovertheprior10years.
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TableA7.HouseholdAdaptationPolychoricCorrelationMatrix
AdaptationChanges
Areafarmed
Farmequipment/assets
Proportionofdifferentcrops
FertilizerUse
TimingofHarvest
Workforincomeoutsideofthefarm
Numberoflivestock
Methodoffarming
Otherchanges
Proportionofdifferentcrops
Typeofseed(traditionalvs.improved)
TimingofPlanting
Areafarmed 1
Farmequipment/assets 0.771 1
Amountofcrops 0.557 0.502 1 FertilizerUse 0.853 0.699 0.549 1
TimingofHarvest 0.837 0.640 0.697 0.843 1 Workforincome
outsideofthefarm 0.724 0.731 0.324 0.467 0.484 1
Numberoflivestock 0.131 0.561 0.547 0.572 0.695 0.116 1
Methodoffarming -0.004 0.531 0.302 0.401 0.530 0.150 0.697 1
Otherchanges 0.706 0.893 0.606 0.691 0.982 0.781 0.651 0.741 1
Proportionofdifferentcrops 0.766 0.535 0.742 0.605 0.697 0.345 0.328 0.340 0.969 1
Typeofseed(traditionalvs.improved) 0.668
0.486
0.568 0.622 0.583 0.409 0.330 0.359 0.973 0.763 1Timingof
Planting 0.638 0.595 0.631 0.718 0.942 0.365 0.563 0.681 0.965 0.725 0.734 1
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TableA8.HouseholdAdaptationPrincipalComponentAnalysis
k EigenvaluesProportionexplained
Cumulativeexplained
1 7.796 0.650 0.6502 1.604 0.134 0.7833 0.999 0.083 0.8674 0.747 0.062 0.9295 0.514 0.043 0.9726 0.325 0.027 0.9997 0.260 0.022 1.0208 0.174 0.014 1.0359 0.091 0.008 1.04310 -0.028 -0.002 1.04011 -0.141 -0.012 1.02812 -0.342 -0.028 1.000