SUSTAINABLE OPERATION OF THE YAQUI RESERVOIR SYSTEM

Yaqui Hydrologic-Agronomic-Economic Yaqui Hydrologic-Agronomic-Economic ModelModel

Short-term ModelShort-term ModelObjective functionObjective function

Multi-objective function Multi-objective function

ConstraintsConstraintsReservoirs storage Reservoirs storage constraintsconstraintsReleases constraintsReleases constraintsContinuity constraintsContinuity constraintsIrrigation constraintsIrrigation constraintsUrban use constraintsUrban use constraints

Long-term ModelLong-term ModelRisk criteriaRisk criteria

a) Reliabilitya) Reliability (how likely the (how likely the system is to fail)system is to fail)b) Vulnerabilityb) Vulnerability (how severe (how severe the consequences of failure the consequences of failure may be)may be)c) Reversibilityc) Reversibility (how quickly (how quickly it recovers from failure)it recovers from failure)

Equity criteriaEquity criteria

ObjectivesObjectives

To develop a sustainable reservoirs’ operating To develop a sustainable reservoirs’ operating policy (a formula for computing the optimal storage policy (a formula for computing the optimal storage capacity in each reservoir) and to determine releases capacity in each reservoir) and to determine releases to be made at the beginning of each period, to be made at the beginning of each period, maximizing agricultural net benefits and minimizing maximizing agricultural net benefits and minimizing the risk of shortages or spills in each reservoir.the risk of shortages or spills in each reservoir.

To explore equity, and risk questions about To explore equity, and risk questions about reliability, reversibility and vulnerability of reliability, reversibility and vulnerability of reservoirs’ storage water under different RMSC and reservoirs’ storage water under different RMSC and their association to agricultural activities and its their association to agricultural activities and its economic benefits. economic benefits.

Historical Yaqui Reservoir Runoff, 1965-2004 Historical Yaqui Reservoir Runoff, 1965-2004

0

1000

2000

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8000

1965

1968

1971

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2004

Years

Ann

ual R

eser

voir

Inflo

w (

MC

M)

INFLOW MEDIAN INFLOW

The Yaqui System is being Affected for both, The Yaqui System is being Affected for both, Natural (droughts) and Anthropogenic Natural (droughts) and Anthropogenic

(excessive releases) Causes.(excessive releases) Causes.

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OC

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NO

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DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

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MAY JU

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AUG

SEP

Months

Stor

age

Volu

me

(MCM

) 19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004Dead storageMin Sust Storage

October 1st 20041,820 MCM

Annual Model Output for the Annual Model Output for the Agricultural Year 2004-2005Agricultural Year 2004-2005

VOLUMEN DISPONIBLE A EXTRAER DE LA PRESA OVIACHIC 811,746

VOLUMEN DISPONIBLE PARA EL DISTRITO DE RIEGO No. 018 250,000

VOLUMEN DISPONIBLE PARA EL DISTRITO DE RIEGO No. 041 561,746

VOLUMEN DISPONIBLE PARA EL DISTRITO DE RIEGO No. 041 A NIVEL MODULO 919,624

DOTACIÓN POR HECTÁREA A NIVEL PUNTO DE CONTROL DE MÓDULO 4.38

SUPERFICIE SEMBRADA (HECTAREAS) 139,745.33

BENEFICIOS ECONOMICOS POR LA AGRICULTURA (PESOS MEXICANOS) 964,692,289.07

VOLUMEN DE AGUA ALMACENADO EN EL MES CRÍTICO 898,000

VOLUMEN ALMACENADO AL FINAL DEL CICLO AGRICOLA (30 SEPTIEMBRE) 1,238,960

DERRAMES EN EL SISTEMA DE PRESAS 0

VOLUMEN DE AGUA DISPONIBLE PARA SEGUNDOS CULTIVOS -1,587,313

PROBABILIDAD 98 PRESA VOLUMEN AL 1ro

OBJETIVO PRIORIDAD DE OCTUBREESCURRIMIENTO ANUAL 577,595.1 ECONOMICO 0.10 ANGOSTURA 111,978

DEFICIT 0.90 NOVILLO 1,098,600DERRAMES 0.00 OVIACHIC 609,620TOTAL 1.00 TOTAL 1,820,198

Crop Pattern and Economic Benefits for Crop Pattern and Economic Benefits for the Agricultural Year 2004-2005the Agricultural Year 2004-2005

CULTIVOS SUP. MODELO SUP. REAL Rendimiento Precio Beneficios Costos Ganancia BENEFICIOS TOTALES BENEFICIOS REALES(has) (has) (Ton/ha) ( $/ton) ($/ha) ($/ha) ($/ha) ($) ($)

Maíz 22 7000 6.480 2585.00 16750.80 14523.00 2227.80 50,055.60 15,594,600.00Varios (otoño) 10 0 13.444 2850.00 38315.40 30000.00 8315.40 83,134.72 0.00Trigo 77223 90000 5.500 2705.00 14877.50 11659.00 3218.50 248,542,305.17 289,665,000.00Cártamo 29990 15000 3.000 4235.00 12705.00 8290.52 4414.48 132,391,933.06 66,217,200.00Cebada 0 0 4.500 1515.00 6817.50 8910.00 -2092.50 -8.53 0.00Garbanzo 3500 5000 2.100 7935.00 16663.50 11126.90 5536.60 19,376,337.12 27,683,000.00Hortalizas Inv. 13000 10000 23.607 2850.00 67279.95 30000.00 37279.95 484,621,510.43 372,799,500.00Sorgo 0 0 5.000 1285.00 6425.00 8500.00 -2075.00 -180.85 0.00Algodón 10000 6000 3.662 5825.22 21331.96 16850.33 4481.63 44,814,478.36 26,889,753.84Alfalfa 3999 4500 12.901 1600.00 20641.60 14284.00 6357.60 25,426,463.65 28,609,200.00Frutales 2000 2500 11.785 1350.00 15909.75 11215.00 4694.75 9,389,335.50 11,736,875.00Soya 0 0 2.106 1800.00 3790.80 7000.00 -3209.20 0.00 0.00ajonjolí 1 0 0.693 5000.00 3465.00 6000.00 -2535.00 -3,075.15 0.00

Demanda para riego 139745 140000 964,692,289.07 839,195,128.84

The Yaqui Basin has been Faced with The Yaqui Basin has been Faced with a Severe Droughta Severe Drought

(SPI 24 Months)(SPI 24 Months)

-3

-2

-1

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Present drought

Runoff Simulation in the Angostura Reservoir (400 years)

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1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301 311 321 331 341 351 361 371 381 391

Years

Mea

n D

evia

tion

(MC

M)

Runoff Simulation in the Novillo Reservoir (400 years)

-2000.00

-1500.00

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1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301 311 321 331 341 351 361 371 381 391

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Mea

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evia

tion

(MC

M)

Runoff Simulation in the Oviachic Reservoir (400 years)

-400.00 -300.00 -200.00

-100.00 0.00

100.00200.00300.00

400.00500.00600.00

1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301 311 321 331 341 351 361 371 381 391

Years

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(MC

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Runoff Simulation in the Yaqui Reservoir System (400 years)

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1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 151 161 171 181 191 201 211 221 231 241 251 261 271 281 291 301 311 321 331 341 351 361 371 381 391

Years

Mea

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(MC

M)

Real and Simulated Runoff in the Yaqui BasinReal and Simulated Runoff in the Yaqui Basin

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Ann

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eser

voir

Inflo

w (

MC

M)

INFLOW MEDIAN INFLOW

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INFLOW MEDIAN INFLOW

Real Runoff Simulated Runoff

Simulated Runoff from 1965-2019 in the Yaqui Simulated Runoff from 1965-2019 in the Yaqui BasinBasin

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Structure of the Long-term ModelStructure of the Long-term Model

Year 1

Long-term Model Optimization

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year n

Inter-year Sustainability Module (Risk and equity parameters)

Connection between short-term models (Connection module)

Sustainable performance of all short-term models

Ratios of Model’s Planted Area to the Total Irrigable Area Ratios of Model’s Planted Area to the Total Irrigable Area and Available Volume at October 1and Available Volume at October 1st.st. to the Required to the Required

Volume under Different Pumping ScenariosVolume under Different Pumping Scenarios

Year 04/05

Year 05/06

Year 06/07

Year 07/08

Year 08/09

Year 09/10

Year 10/11

Year 11/12

Year 12/13

Year 13/14

Year 14/15

Year 15/16

Year 16/17

Year 17/18

Year 18/19

ANNUAL RUNOFF (MCM)

2810

1547

1596

2580

2470

2159

2524

4732

2423

2600

6800

4917

4881

4053

2688

IAB 0.81 1.01 0.96 1.02 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.22 1.30 1.42 1.40 1.45 1.37 1.44

IAWB 0.81 1.01 0.96 1.02 1.14 1.13 1.06 1.13 1.22 1.30 1.42 1.40 1.45 1.37 1.44

SVB 0.86 0.88 0.80 1.03 1.07 0.98 1.03 1.79 1.54 1.30 2.21 2.21 2.21 2.21 1.77

SVWB 0.86 0.88 0.73 0.89 0.86 0.72 0.76 1.52 1.30 1.11 2.12 2.21 2.21 2.21 1.77

IAB = Planted area using 600 MCM of pumped waterIAWB = Planted area using 370 MCM of pumped waterSVB = Storage volume in October 1st. Using 600 MCM of pumped waterSVWB = Storage volume in October 1st. Using 370 MCM of pumped water

Parameters of Irrigable Area and Reservoir Parameters of Irrigable Area and Reservoir Storage Volume Reliability, Reversibility and Storage Volume Reliability, Reversibility and Vulnerability under two Pumping ScenariosVulnerability under two Pumping Scenarios

Scenario

Reliability

Reversibility

Vulnerability

IAB 1.1951 1.0 0.19

IAWB 1.1904 1.0 0.19 SVB 1.45 3.0 0.20

SVWB 1.34 7.0 0.27

Changing Rate of Water use Pumping Changing Rate of Water use Pumping 600 MCM600 MCM..

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0.080.1

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Agricultural year

Cha

nge

rate

Changing Rate of Water Use Pumping Changing Rate of Water Use Pumping 370 MCM370 MCM..

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0.080.1

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ConclusionsConclusionsThe short-term model is a tool that can be used in the irrigation The short-term model is a tool that can be used in the irrigation district yearly planning process. Sensitivity analysis shows that this district yearly planning process. Sensitivity analysis shows that this model is sensible to economic and hydrologic parameters.model is sensible to economic and hydrologic parameters.

The long-term model shows that the irrigated area can be sustained, The long-term model shows that the irrigated area can be sustained, even during dry periods, but at expenses of the reservoirs’ storage even during dry periods, but at expenses of the reservoirs’ storage volume, which declines under drought conditions. volume, which declines under drought conditions.

Excessive releases for agricultural use from the reservoir system Excessive releases for agricultural use from the reservoir system will reduce storage volume reliability, making the system more will reduce storage volume reliability, making the system more vulnerable, inequitable and increasing the probability to have failure vulnerable, inequitable and increasing the probability to have failure conditions. conditions.

After the economic analysis we conclude that large increase in After the economic analysis we conclude that large increase in irrigated area is not economically efficient, but it has negative irrigated area is not economically efficient, but it has negative consequences in reservoirs’ storage volume because farmers waste consequences in reservoirs’ storage volume because farmers waste water planting no profitable crops.water planting no profitable crops.

ConclusionsConclusions

Equity analysis shows that irregular annual water allocation Equity analysis shows that irregular annual water allocation can be minimized applying the appropriate operation can be minimized applying the appropriate operation policies.policies.

We can also conclude that there is a relationship between We can also conclude that there is a relationship between equity and economic efficiency and between reservoirs’ equity and economic efficiency and between reservoirs’ storage volume reliability and irrigated area reliability.storage volume reliability and irrigated area reliability.

We conclude that a sustainable margin of sustainability of at We conclude that a sustainable margin of sustainability of at least 2500 MCM should be used in the Yaqui reservoirs’ least 2500 MCM should be used in the Yaqui reservoirs’ system, to give more certainty in the planning process. system, to give more certainty in the planning process.

Finally, we conclude that this model can be used to develop Finally, we conclude that this model can be used to develop the Yaqui river reservoirs’ operation rules.the Yaqui river reservoirs’ operation rules.

ContributionContribution

The short-term model has been used during the planning The short-term model has been used during the planning process of the Irrigation Districts No. 041 and 018, process of the Irrigation Districts No. 041 and 018, during the Agricultural years 2003-2004 and 2004-2005.during the Agricultural years 2003-2004 and 2004-2005.

The C.N.A is developing the The C.N.A is developing the “Water Resources “Water Resources Management Plan under Drought Conditions in the Management Plan under Drought Conditions in the Yaqui Basin”Yaqui Basin” and the long-term model is being used. and the long-term model is being used.

The Yaqui River reservoir operation rules document The Yaqui River reservoir operation rules document developed in this study is being revised by the C.N.A for developed in this study is being revised by the C.N.A for its application in the Irrigation District N0. 041.its application in the Irrigation District N0. 041.

Future ResearchFuture Research

Groundwater allocation for irrigation was assumed as a Groundwater allocation for irrigation was assumed as a known value. It is necessary to develop a groundwater model known value. It is necessary to develop a groundwater model to be operated simultaneously with the reservoirs’ allocation to be operated simultaneously with the reservoirs’ allocation model (surface model) minimizing the possibility of mining model (surface model) minimizing the possibility of mining underground water reserves.underground water reserves.

According to the evolution of the modernization of the According to the evolution of the modernization of the hydraulic infrastructure, the conveyance and application hydraulic infrastructure, the conveyance and application efficiencies should be actualized for its incorporation in the efficiencies should be actualized for its incorporation in the model.model.

Forecast crops’ prices and costs.Forecast crops’ prices and costs.

Forecast crops’ yields. Forecast crops’ yields.

Future research is required to include other priorities in the Future research is required to include other priorities in the objective function (institutional and environmental).objective function (institutional and environmental).

Muchas GraciasMuchas Gracias