Materials and the Environmentt

Part 3 – Global Consumption Patterns: Uneven but

Changing

(Most recent update April 1, 2013)

The most economically developed nations are also the highest

consuming nations.

As a result, only a few nations consume by far the greatest

share of the world’s raw materials.

Selected Raw Material Consumption in the United States and Western Europe

Source: UNEP. 2004. Vital Waste Graphics. GRID Arendal

(http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/waste/page/2857.aspx)

Consumption of Selected Raw Materials Compared to Global

Population

Consumption of Selected Raw Materials Compared to Global

Population

Source: UNEP. 2004. Vital Waste Graphics. GRID Arendal (http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/waste/page/2857.aspx)

France, Germany, Japan, UK, & United States (5 countries)Rest of World (188 countries)

As shown in the next several graphics, developing nations are beginning to consume a greater share of the world’s resources as their economies

expand.

% of world consumption

Steel

Aluminum

Copper

% of world population

1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Developed Countries*

12.1

11.3

10.7

46.8

51.3

26.6

68.4

63.9

44.8

66.9

58.1

42.6

Developing Countries

87.9

88.7

89.3

53.2

48.7

73.4

31.6

36.1

55.2

33.1

41.9

57.4

% of world consumption

Lead Zinc Nickel Industrial Wood

1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Developed Countries

69.6

63.3

41.8

60.9

55.3

36.4

70.9

69.1

58.8

66.0

62.1

52.6

Developing Countries

30.4

36.7

58.2

39.1

44.7

63.6

29.1

29.9

41.2

34.0

37.9

47.4

% of world consumption

Cement Petroleum

1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Developed Countries

34.6

25.3

11.3

56.8

51.4

49.0

* Developed countries include the

United States, Canada, EU-15 nations, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and

South Korea.Developing Countries

65.4

74.7

88.7

43.2

48.6

51.0

Note that the developed countries, that in 2010 comprised 10.7% of world population, consumed a much greater percentage of critical resources.

0 20 40 60 80 100

Petroleum

Wood

Cement

Nickel

Zinc

Lead

Copper

Aluminum

Steel

2010

2000

1990

Percent of Global Consumption of Selected Materials by Developed

Nations*

* Developed nations included in consumption statistics are the United States, Canada, EU-15 nations, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and S.

Korea.

Percent of world population, 2010 (10.7%)

Note that the portion of critical materials

consumed by developed nations is decreasing as developing nations make

economic gains.

0 20 40 60 80 100

Petroleum

Cement

Wood…

Nickel

Zinc

Lead

Copper

Aluminum

Steel

2010

2000

1990

1980

Percent of Global Consumption of Selected Materials by the United

States

Source: U.S. Geological Survey (2013); U.S. Dept. of Energy, EIA (2013).

Percent of world population, 2010 (4.5%)

2010 consumption in the U.S. was very much affected by the great recession. Will rebound.

The shift in global consumption patterns is led by

China, but is by no means limited to developments in

China alone.

China’s Gross Domestic Product

(Expressed in Current $US)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Bil

lio

ns

of

Cu

rren

t U

.S.

Do

llar

s

Source: World Bank, 2013.

Material 1990 2000 2010

Steel 8.9 19.7 43.4

Aluminum 5.4 12.8 40.1

Copper 4.9 13.0 39.2

Nickel 4.2 6.6 29.3

Lead 7.4 9.0 44.1

Zinc 8.7 15.0 42.5

Cement 16.8 35.2 56.0

Wood (industrial wood)

7.1 14.7 16.4

Petroleum 3.6 6.3 11.1

China Consumption of Critical Materials 1990-2010

(percent of world consumption)

China Consumption of Critical Materials 1990-2010

(percent of world consumption)

Sources: USGS, IISI, OECD, USDOE-EIA (2013)

Raw material consumption patterns will continue to shift as nations now classified as

developing become increasingly economically

developed.

GDP* in the U.S. vs. Other GDP* in the U.S. vs. Other Economies, 2005Economies, 2005

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14U.S.JapanGermanyChinaUKFranceItalyMexicoBrazilIndiaRussia

Source: International Monetary Fund (2006)

Tri

llio

n U

S $

* GDP is the value of all goods and services produced within a nation’s borders. Values expressed in purchasing power parity.

Chin

a

Ind

ia

GDP in the U.S. vs. Other GDP in the U.S. vs. Other Economies, 2010Economies, 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16U.S.JapanGermanyChinaUKFranceItalyMexicoBrazilIndiaRussia

Source: International Monetary Fund (2013)

Tri

llio

n U

S $

Projected GDP in the U.S. vs. Projected GDP in the U.S. vs. Other Economies, 2030Other Economies, 2030

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35U.S.JapanGermanyChinaUKFranceItalyMexicoBrazilIndiaRussia

Source: PWC Macroeconomics, UK (2011)

Tri

llio

n U

S $

Projected GDP in the U.S. vs. Projected GDP in the U.S. vs. Other Economies, 2050Other Economies, 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

60U.S.JapanGermanyChinaUKFranceItalyMexicoBrazilIndiaRussia

Source: PWC Macroeconomics, UK (2011)

Tri

llio

n U

S $

This translates to increasing consumption of both goods and raw materials in countries that

have long been characterized by low per-capita consumption and

large populations.

Fierce competition for the world’s raw materials is certain,

and already gaining momentum.

So, in this environment, how is the U.S. positioned for the

future?

The U.S. is a net importer of most categories of raw materials

used to support our economy and lifestyle.

The U.S. is a net importer of most categories of raw materials

used to support our economy and lifestyle.

• Most metals• Portland and masonry cement• Petroleum (the basis for most

plastics)• Wood and wood products

In the slides that follow, net import dependence is shown.

Principal suppliers are also listed in order of importance, with the most important supplier listed first (to the left), the next most important to the right of that,

and so on.

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/

c/ d/

Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Niobium 100 Brazil, Canada, Germany, RussiaManganese 100 S. Africa, Gabon, China, AustraliaGraphite 100 China, Mexico, Canada, BrazilStrontium 100 Mexico, GermanyBauxite/Alumina 100 Jamaica, Brazil, Guinea, AustraliaFluorspar 100 Mexico, China, S. Africa, MongoliaYttrium 100 China, Japan, France, UKThallium 100 Russia, Germany, KazakhstanRubidium 100 CanadaAsbestos 100 Canada, ZimbabweQuartz (crystal) 100 China, Japan, RussiaThorium 100 France, India, Canada, UKTantalum 100 China, Germany, Kazakhstan, Australia

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/

dd//

Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Arsenic (trioxide) 100 Morocco, China, BelgiumIndium 100 China, Canada, Belgium, JapanRare earth metals 100 China, France, Estonia, JapanCesium 100 CanadaMica (natural) 100 China, Brazil, Belgium, IndiaIodine 99 Chile, JapanGallium 99 Germany, Canada, UK, ChinaGemstones 98 Israel, India, Belgium, S. Africa Germanium 90 China, Belgium, Russia, GermanyBismuth 89 China, Belgium, UKDiamond (dust, grit) 89 China, Ireland, S. Korea, RussiaPlatinum Group 88 Germany, S. Africa, UK, CanadaAntimony 87 China, Mexico, Belgium

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/

b/ c/ d/

Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Rhenium 87 Chile, Netherlands, GermanyStone (dimension) 85 Brazil, China, Italy, TurkeyPotash 83 Canada, Belarus, RussiaLithium 80+ Argentina, Chile, ChinaVanadium 80 S. Korea, Canada, Austria, Czech Rep.Barium (Barite) 78 China, IndiaSilicon carbide 76 China, Brazil, Vietnam, NorwayTin 76 Peru, Bolivia, Indonesia, ChinaCobalt 75 China, Norway, Russia, CanadaSilver 75 Mexico, Canada, Peru, ChileZinc 73 Canada, Peru, Mexico, IrelandTitanium (sponge) 69 Kazakhstan, Japan, China, RussiaTitanium concentrates 68 S. Africa, Australia, Canada, Mzambique

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/

d/

Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Peat 63 CanadaChromium 60 S. Africa, Kazakhstan, Russia, ChinaPalladium 56 Russia, S. Africa, UK, NorwayMagnesium Cpds 53 China, Canada, Brazil, AustriaNickel 47 Canada, Russia, Australia, NorwayFerrosilicon 42 China, Russia, Venezuela, CanadaNitrogen (fixed) 41 Trinidad/Tobago, Russia, Canada, UkrainePetroleum 40 Canada, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia,

Iraq, Nigeria, MexicoGarnet (industrial) 39 India, Australia, China, CanadaGold 36 Mexico, Canada, Colombia, PeruTungsten 36 China, Bolivia, Canada, GermanyMagnesium Metal 35 Israel, China, Canada

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/

c/ d/

Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Copper 35 Chile, Canada, Peru, MexicoPerlite 27 GreeceLumber (softwood) 25 Canada, Chile, Sweden, GermanySulfur 24 Canada, Mexico, VenezuelaSalt 22 Canada, Chile, Mexico, The BahamasBeryllium 21 Russia, Kazakhstan, Japan Mica (scrap/flake) 20 Canada, China, IndiaVermiculite 20 China, S. Africa, Australia, BrazilGypsum 13 Canada, Mexico, SpainPhosphate rock 13 Morocco, PeruAluminum 13 Canada, Russia, China, MexicoIron and steel 9 Canada, EU, China, MexicoCement (Portland/msry) 6 Canada, China, S. Korea, MexicoPumice 5 Greece, Mexico, Iceland, Montserrat

Net U.S. Imports of Selected Materials as a Percent of Apparent Consumption - 2011, and by Major Foreign Sources a/ b/ c/

d/

Material % Imported Principal Foreign Sources (2007-10)Diamond (industrial) 3 Botswana, S. Africa, Russia, NambiaLime 1 Canada, MexicoStone (crushed) 1 Canada, Mexico, The Bahamas

a/ U.S. Geological Survey. 2013. Mineral Commodity Summaries - 2012.

b/ Principal foreign sources arranged by most important supplier to the left, next most important to the right of that, and so on.

c/ Petroleum data from U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration 2013 (February). d/ Data for construction lumber from RISI, Random Lengths, 2012, 2013.

The United States is also a net importer of durable and non-durable goods of all kinds.

Europe and Japan are in much the same situation.

The U.S. is a massive net importer partly because many

economically accessible resources lie outside U.S.

borders . . .

. . . but also because environmental regulations and policies have created barriers to domestic production and increased associated costs.

The net result is a shift of environmental impacts linked

to our consumption to locations outside of the U.S.

Beyond ethical questions, there is a developing problem.

While supplies of most raw materials are unlikely to

physically run out, there are growing concerns about

availability.

In a 2011 global survey of 69 leading companies, resource

scarcity was identified as a major concern in all industries represented.

Source: European Technology Platform on Sustainable Mineral Resources. 2012. (http://eurogeosurveys.org/assets/ETPSMR/SF2012/1.The%20contribution%20of

%20ETP%20SMR%20-%20Henryk%20Karas.pdf)

The European Environment Agency described concerns this

way:

“The world's stocks of natural resources are already decreasing. A larger and

richer global population with increasing consumption needs will make bigger

demands for many things including food, water and energy. In the future, rising

demand and falling supply could intensify global competition for

resources . . .

The European Environment Agency described concerns this

way:

. . . Growing long-term scarcity of minerals and metals may induce us to

turn to sources hitherto deemed uneconomic. Expanding mining has

several environmental effects, including changing landscapes, polluting water and generating waste. Poorer quality

mineral reserves may mean that exploiting such sources is less energy

efficient.”Source: European Environment Agency. 2011. (http://www.eea.europa.eu/signals/signals-2011/earth-2050-global-megatrends/

intensified-global-competition-for-decreasing)

Summary• Per capita consumption of raw materials is

far higher in the most economically developed countries than in countries that are not as economically advanced.

• The global economy is changing rapidly, with many traditionally low-income countries now experiencing rapid economic growth.

• Economic expansion is affecting regions of the world characterized by very large populations.

• Consumption of raw materials of all kinds is increasing very rapidly.

Summary

• Several high consuming countries, including the United States, Japan, and European countries, are massive net importers of raw materials.

• While the world is unlikely to literally run out of most raw materials, there are questions about future availability in a world of increasing competition for those resources.

• As global competition for raw materials increases, countries may have to form new alliances and relationships.

Summary• Appropriate technology development

relative to resource development, use, and recycling will be essential.

• Reconsideration of domestic policies, to potentially allow greater access to domestic resources, will likely be needed.

• Environmental and social concerns will increase as raw material consumption rises.