the aspen snowmass winter 2014 market report · basalt (7.6%), but down in snowmass village (8%)....

MARKETthe Aspen Snowmass WINTER 2014

Insider’sReal Estate

Guide

ANDREW ERNEMANN

REPORT

There were more home sales above

$1,500/sf in Aspen in2013 than any year since

2008. The West Endneighborhood had the

highest average at $1,397/sf.

Aspen had 4condo sales above$2,000/sf in 2013,

Snowmass Village had 6 sales above $1,000/sf.The most for either town

since 2008.

*Listing Inventory dropped in every segment of the market in 2013 except Aspen and Basalt condos.

*Up 44%, excludingViceroy Sales.

Price/sf forhomes was up

in Aspen (1.4%) andBasalt (7.6%), but

down in SnowmassVillage (8%).

Despite a 20%drop for Aspen landsales in 2013, theend-user and spec

developer market forland remains

strong.

Compared tothe year prior,

residential listinginventory dropped*

5% in Aspen, 16% inSnowmass Village

and 10% inBasalt.

There were12 sales above

$10 million in Aspen in 2013. There were none in Snowmass

Village.

Condo salesin 2013 were up

11% in Aspen, 152%*

in Snowmass Villageand down 33%

in Basalt.

The Aspen/Snowmass brand is alive and well. Headed into 2013 there were big expectations for a stellar real estate year. By late July there was some head scratching and questions lingering about the lack of sales activity locally compared to other luxury markets around the world. Sales dollar volume was down more than 20% compared to 2012 as we hit the midway point of 2013, but momentum was building. After tallying the 2013 year-end performance of the local real estate market it’s clear that Aspen/Snowmass is just getting warmed up.

The number of sales was up nearly 9% year-over-year in Aspen, a respectable statistic, but how about the 118% jump in Snowmass Village! Thanks largely in part to the rejuvenation of Base Village under recapitalized ownership the Viceroy accounted for over 50 condominium sales in 2013 (that’s over 40% of all Snowmass Village condominium sales). Perhaps an even bigger story is the fact that while prices in Aspen continued to gain momentum Snowmass Village experienced its first price increases in over five years. Core condominium prices in Aspen jumped about 10% in 2013, while on paper the rise was nearly 15% for Snowmass Village condominium (asterisk for Snowmass due to the price premium for all the Viceroy sales that took place in 2013).

Looking ahead into 2014 and beyond, the real estate fundamentals are solid in Aspen/Snowmass. Listing inventory (supply) is down and sales (demand) are up. Upward pressure on prices will continue to take shape and some of the more outlying and rural neighborhoods will finally start to get their legs back. While Aspen/Snowmass wasn’t the first luxury market to escape from the claws of recession this time around it’s nice to see very healthy interest and activity in local real estate once again.

Onward!

Andrew Ernemann, Broker Associate2013 President, Aspen Board of Realtors

Quiet Confidence

What’s Trending ............................. 03

Market Temperature ...................... 04

Market Changes............................. 05

Market Cycles ...................................... 06

Area Maps ..................................... 07

Aspen Market ................................ 08

Aspen/Snowmass Luxury Report .... 10

Snowmass Market ......................... 12

Snowmass Ski Report ................... 14

Homes - Aspen .............................. 16

Homes - Snowmass ....................... 17

Condominiums/Townhomes .......... 18

Land ............................................. 19

About Andrew ............................... 20

the Aspen Snowmass MARKET REPORT

sREPORT

The Aspen Snowmass Market Report is a biannual publication providing an objective view of the Aspen/Snowmass real estate market. Data presented in this publication comes from the Aspen/Glenwood Springs Multiple Listing Service and is presented in a format intended for Aspen/Snowmass real estate buyers, sellers and professionals.

www.AspenUpdate.com 03

What’sTrending?

For a digital copy of this report, visit www.AspenUpdate.com

CONTENTS

the Aspen Snowmass MARKET REPORT04 www.AspenUpdate.com 05

ASPEN & SNOWMASS VILLAGE MARKETS

Changes: Prior Year Comparisons UPPER ROARING FORK VALLEY MARKET

Performance & Expectations

Number of Residential Sales

Residential Listing Inventory

Condo & Townhome Sales Average Price per Sq Ft

-11%-21%

-52%

-5%

19% 16%24%

5%

-36%

-14%-10%

-72%

68%

34%

2%

94%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Aspen Snowmass Village

-2% -2%

-12%

-9%

12%

2% 2%

-12%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2010 2011 2012 2013


29%

20%

12%

-21%

-10%

1%

-9%

5%

29%32%

3%

-28%

-10%-8% -8%

13%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


A perfect visual representation of the most fundamental local real estate metric, there has been four straight years of positive sales growth. Some impressive numbers in Aspen, although the growth year over year in Snowmass Village demonstrates just how far the Snowmass market fell in 2009. Interestingly the number of sales in both areas was dropping during some of the prime “boom” years of 2006-2008.

When talking market fundamentals the two trends that will help forecast future price direction are the number of sales and listing inventory. The first chart on this page shows rising sales over the past few years, while the inventory chart shows the dropping listing inventory levels. Lower supply and higher demand usually leads to price increases.

As outlined above the current real estate trends point to likely price increases, and after four straight years of declines (with the exception of a modest increase in Aspen during 2011) the pressure on prices has pushed price per square foot upward. Note: this chart covers only condominium and townhome sales due to the fact that single family trends tend to be more variable due to shifts in neighborhood and price point sales activity.

Aspen

NUMBEROF SALES

2013 vs. 2012thru December 31st

SALES DOLLARVOLUME

AVERAGESALES PRICE

AVERAGESALES PRICE

PER SF

AVERAGESALES PRICE

AS A % OFASKING PRICE

LISTINGINVENTORY

SnowmassVillage

Sometimes perspective makes all the difference. At the mid-year point in 2013 the Aspen real estate market was trending downward with regard to the number of sales, sales dollar volume and average sales price. A relatively strong finish to the summer selling season, which spilled well into the fall months of 2013, pushed the number of sales well ahead of last year. The two most fundamental indicators of future market direction, number of sales and listing inventory, are pointing to upward pressure on prices. The average sold price was down in 2013, and this is attributed primarily to stronger sales activity at the lower end of the single family market, as well as a continued increase in condominium sales.

It’s hard to believe just how quickly the Snowmass Village condominium market has turned upward. The success in 2013 for sales on and off the slopes is the primary driver behind the uptick in the number of sales, sales dollar volume and average sales price per square foot. A healthy drop in overall listing inventory validates the positive fundamentals underlying the Snowmass market these days. There was a significant drop in average sales price in 2013, although this is largely attributed to a mysterious lack of activity in the $3 million plus market. Some late year signs of life in the Snowmass luxury market is likely to carry forward into 2014 and will help drive all segments of the Snowmass market upward in the coming months.

Basalt

On the surface the drop in the number of sales and sales dollar volume would appear to be of concern for the Basalt market. However, the slowdown is entirely the result of a relative lack of inventory at lower price points in most neighborhoods. A few strong years of market recovery has pushed sales activity to more normalized levels in Basalt. Prices experienced relatively strong increases over the course of 2013 and will likely continue this trend through 2014. Listing inventory dropped nearly double digits. Expect the higher price points to start to experience some pressure as a result of Aspen/Snowmass prices rising and lower inventory levels across the board.

2013 Performance

AVERAGE HOTCOLD

2014 Expectations

Snowmass Village$3M+ Properties

SnowmassVillage Land

SnowmassVillage Homes

AspenHomes

AspenLand

Aspen CoreCondos

Aspen $10M+Properties

SnowmassVillageCondos

SnowmassVillage Condos

AspenHomes

Aspen$10M+

Properties

SnowmassVillage $3M+

PropertiesAspen

CondosAspenLand

SnowmassVillage Land


ASPEN & SNOWMASS VILLAGE MARKETS

Area Neighborhoods ASPEN & SNOWMASS VILLAGE MARKETS

Real Estate Cycles

2005-06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-13 2014 (?)

From the Seller’s Perspective

BlindEuphoria

WhatJust

Happened?

Depression

Hope

Excitement

Exuberance

Excitement

Help!

2005-06 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012-13 2014 (?)

From the Buyer’s Perspective

No IdeaWhat’s

About toHappen What

JustHappened?

Early AdoptersStart to Buy

Time to Getin the Game

Time toGet in the

Game

The HerdFollows

Stampede

The HerdFollows

Wait andSee

Aspen includes the area of the Upper Roaring Fork Valley east of the airport. It is further divided into the following neighborhoods: Central Core (bounded to the east and North by the Roaring Fork River and by Garmisch Street on the west), East Aspen (east of the Central Core and Roaring Fork River), Smuggler (near the old silver mine and now a popular hiking trail), Red Mountain (to the north of the Core), the West End (a historic section near the Core), West Aspen (west of Castle Creek) and McLain Flats and Starwood (to the northwest of downtown Aspen).

Snowmass Ski Area was originally developed in the 1960’s, and Snowmass Village has continued to develop on and around the ski area since that time. Base Village is one of the more noteworthy slopeside developments in recent years. There are several neighborhoods within Snowmass Village that access the ski slopes, as well as properties within neighborhoods that line the mountains and golf course nearby. The Divide, Woodrun, Base Village, parts of Ridge Run, Two Creeks and The Pines all offer ski access. Melton Ranch, Horse Ranch, lower Ridge Run, the Snowmass Club and a few other pockets within Snowmass Village do not have direct ski access but offer other amenities.

B r u s h C r e e k

Owl Creek Rd

HorseRanch

Country Club

ThePines

Ridge Run

The Divide

MeltonRanch

Wildridge

Wildoak

TwoCreeks

Woodrun

Ca

stle

Cr e

ek

Ro a rin

g Fo rk R i v e r

R o a r i n g F o r k R i v e r

Mountain

HiddenMeadows Anderson

Ranch

Chapel &Community

Center

MeadowRanch

SinclairMeadows

Snowmass Cluband Golf Course

Town Park

TheCrossings

Fox Run

Valley

Red Butte Black Birch

Ridge of Red Mountain

Pitkin Mesa

Pitkin Green Aspen

Meadows

Aspen Institute

Snow Bunny

Pitkin Reserve

Meadowood

Aspen Highlands

Aspen Grove

Knollwood

Eastwood Aspen Club

Stillwater Ranch

Red Mountain

Ranch

Starwood

White Horse Springs

White Star Ranch

Star Mesa

West Buttermilk

Owl Creek Rd

MaroonCreek Club 82

82

82 Aspen Mountain

Ski Area

ButtermilkSki Area

FiveTrees

The Preserve

WestAspen

Red Mountain

Smuggler

East Aspen

WestEnd

CentralCore

McLain Flats & Starwood

ASPEN

SNOWMASS VILLAGE

Calderwood Riverside

Lacet

BaseVillageThe

Village

N

Aspen HighlandsSki Area

Eagle Pines


The Aspen MarketSingle Family Homes - Sales Activity

$0

$200,000,000

$400,000,000

$600,000,000

$800,000,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Number of Sales Sales $ Volume

$0

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

$300,000,000

$350,000,000

$400,000,000

$450,000,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

$1,500

$1,600

$1,700

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Core Condos/Townhomes Aspen Single Family

Condominiums & Townhomes - Sales Activity

Vacant Land - Sales Activity

Average Sales Price per Sq Ft

Don’t let the Sales Dollar Volume line fool you, the takeaway from this graph should be the steady increase in the number of sales for Aspen single family homes since the “bottom” in 2009. Dollar volume did drop in 2013 compared to the year prior, a result of an increase in lower price point home sales and a handful of larger sales that were pulled forward into the tail end of 2012 due to impending tax law changes.

Good news for condominium and townhome sellers — an 80%+ drop in the number of sales from 2005 to 2009 has been followed by four consecutive years of increases. After a year with lower sales of $2 Million-plus condominiums in Aspen all price points showed relative strength in 2013, helping to push sales dollar volume upward.

There’s no question 2012 was a banner year for Aspen land sales, so on paper 2013 looks like a disappointment. The truth is that sales for Aspen land has remained strong from a historical context. End users and spec developers have been taking advantage of opportunities to build new homes in a market where much of the built inventory is 10+ years old. Challenges for land sales in Aspen continue to exist with rising mitigation fees and the first signs of rising construction costs in years.

Nothing demonstrates the meteoric rise and equally dramatic fall of the local real estate market between 2005 and 2010 as well as this graph. Average price per square foot has shown stability in many neighborhoods over the past few years, and core condominium prices rose approximately 10% in 2013. The modest drop in home prices in 2013 is reflective of an increase in sales at lower price points and neighborhoods to the east and west of downtown Aspen.

Single Family Home Activity

Core Condominium & Townhome Sales

Residential Property Listing Inventory

Sales Price to List Ratio (All Sales)

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

95.6% 95.6%96.1%

93.1%

87.4% 87.3%

88.5%

89.7%

91.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

95.0%

100.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

5

1113

15

31

5

12

19

2321

49

19

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Central Core Red Mountain West End East Aspen West Aspen McLain Flats

2013 Sales Active Listings

48%

39%

13%

2012

29%

49%

22%

2011

37%

48%

15%

2013

$1M-$3M<$1M $3M+

Most neighborhoods improved in 2013 pushing sales absorption rates below a two year supply of listing Inventory. The West End and Red Mountain continue to be strong performing neighborhoods with consistent desirability. Value purchases to the east and west of downtown gave a boost to home sales in those areas during 2013. The McLain Flats neighborhood (which includes Starwood) consists largely of higher price point homes, and buyers have just begun to tap into opportunities in this area.

Sales below $1M accounted for a disproportionate share of sales in 2012 and the balance shifted somewhat back to sales between $1M and $3M in 2013. Ultra luxury condominium sales above $3M have settled in the 15% range of the total number of sales after driving the core condominium market recovery in 2011.

The arrow says it all…despite consistent seasonal swings in listing Inventory there has been an overall decline of 20-25% for listings over the past few years. Core condominium inventory actually rose in 2013 even though sales also increased. Expect some neighborhoods to experience a flattening or even increases in listing Inventory in the coming 12-18 months as more property sellers begin to feel bolstered by the pendulum swing back towards a seller’s market.

An often overlooked real estate statistic is the ratio of sale price to list price. Although it’s not the most widely followed metric, the story behind this graph perfectly encapsulates the price direction of the Aspen real estate market. The modest drop in 2008 was a precursor to market weakness that wasn’t recognized until early 2009 and market fundamentals have continued to squeeze discounts as prices have begun to rise once again.


THE $5M+ MARKET

The Aspen Snowmass Luxury Report

Luxury Single Family Home Sales (2005-2013)

Luxury Single Family Home Sales

Luxury Single Family Home Sales (2009-2013)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

<$5M $5M<$10M $10M+

$5M<$10M<$5M $10M<

$5M-$10M

$10M-$15M $15M+

Snowmass VillageAspen Woody Creek & Old Snowmass

73%

17%

10%

60%24%

16%

61%26%

13%

20122011 2013

25

23

118

204

37

32

The Aspen Luxury Market has followed the same general sales trends as the overall local real estate market, with declining sales between 2005 and 2009 followed by steady improvement since that time. Sales above $5M and $10M weren’t as robust in 2013 as the few years prior, but two buyers who each purchased properties for more than $40M in 2013 helped prove that Aspen/Snowmass continues to attract wealth and investment on a relatively consistent basis.

2013 marked a shift in the mix of luxury home sales in Aspen/Snowmass. Sales below $5M accounted for nearly three out of every four sales (compared to three out of five during the previous few years). A few contributing factors likely account for the change: a non-existent luxury market in Snowmass Village during 2013, more lower price point sales than previous years in east and west Aspen and some high-end sales that were “pulled forward” into late 2012.

Aspen has accounted for nearly 85% of all Luxury Home Sales in the upper Roaring Fork Valley over the past five years. While Snowmass Village has a reasonable share of the Luxury Market between $5 Million and $10 Million nearly all of the Sales above $10 Million occur in the neighborhoods surrounding Aspen. A handful of Sales in Wildcat, Woody Creek and Old Snowmass round out the Luxury Home Sales activity tally.

Single Family Home Activity - $5M+

Single Family Home Price per Square Foot - $5M+

Single Family Home Average Sales Price per Square Foot

1 4 1

8

11

89 9

19

9

32

16

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Central Core East Aspen McLain Flats West End West Aspen Red Mountain


$1,276

$1,132

$918

$1,488

$1,180

$1,439$1,487

$1,254

$1,504$1,587

$1,340

$1,826

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

Central Core East Aspen McLain Flats West End West Aspen Red Mountain


$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

<$5M $5M-$10M $10M+

The West End and Red Mountain neighborhoods are consistent luxury market performers, and there would be more sales activity in the Central Core if there were more mainstream luxury home listings (most of the current Core listings are located on fringe areas or entail some additional development component). Relatively high listing inventory in West Aspen started to get absorbed in 2013 and that activity should continue through 2014.

Luxury homes typically sell at a higher price per square foot than the lower price points, this is often due to the superior location, finishes and property amenities that are associated with luxury homes. Once again, the West End and Red Mountain areas tend to command the highest average price per square foot, and the two neighborhoods will often trade off the bragging rights as the most expensive neighborhood for luxury homes on a price per square foot basis.

Nothing beats a visual that clearly demonstrates the point. In this case the long-term fluctuations of the local real estate market are background noise to the fact that as price point increases so does the average price per square foot for luxury homes in the Aspen area.


The Snowmass Village MarketSingle Family Homes - Sales Activity

Condominiums & Townhomes - Sales Activity

Vacant Land - Sales Activity


$0

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


$0

$20,000,000

$40,000,000

$60,000,000

$80,000,000

$100,000,000

$120,000,000

$140,000,000

$160,000,000

$180,000,000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


$0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

0

5

10

15

20

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ski-Accessible Condos/TH's Non Ski-Accessible Condos/TH's

Single Family Home Activity

Condominium & Townhome Sales

Residential Property Listing Inventory

Sales Price to List Ratio (All Sales)

20122011 2013

$0.5M-$1M<$0.5M $1M+

27%

46%

27%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

96.4% 96.3% 96.5% 96.9%

83.9%

87.1%

88.9%

90.2%

92.0%

80.0%

85.0%

90.0%

95.0%

100.0%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2 0

8

4

0

6

34

8

1514

2

5

20

5

10

15

20

The Pines Two Creeks Ridge Run Wood Run The Divide Melton Ranch Horse Ranch


47%

33%

20%

42%

36%

22%

It’s been a challenging couple of years in Snowmass Village, there’s no way to sugarcoat it. The light at the end of the tunnel has finally come into focus with incremental gains in home sales activity over the past few years. Much of the action has been below $2 Million recently, and buyer’s have taken advantage of the market correction to nearly clear out the best opportunities at lower price points.

It’s always hard to draw too many conclusions from a market that has relatively few sales, and this couldn’t be truer with regard to the Snowmass Village land market. Certainly the sales activity in 2013 was encouraging, and was driven in part by lower price point sales at Sinclair Meadows.

The relationship between ski-accessible and non ski-accessible sales in Snowmass Village continues to display a premium for those properties on the slopes (approximately 40% on average in 2013.) The encouraging news in 2013 for Snowmass Village property owners is that price per square foot increased for condominiums and townhomes across the board.

Value-driven home purchases in Ridge Run, Wood Run and Melton Ranch was the theme for 2013. The lack of sales at higher price points resulted in almost no sales activity in The Divide, Two Creeks and The Pines (two Pines Sales late in the year rescued an otherwise anemic luxury home market in Snowmass Village).

Similar to the Snowmass home market, condominium sales in 2013 took place primarily at lower price points; a portion of these sales were for aggressively priced Viceroy studios and one bedrooms, with the goal of jump starting sales activity in Base Village. Expect the balance to shift back towards higher price points in 2014 as inventory lessens at lower price points and prices continue to push upward.

Although listing inventory has remained relatively flat on the whole in Snowmass Village, there are signs of recent improvement. The substantial increase in condominium sales during 2013 has helped push overall inventory levels lower, although there is a healthy amount of shadow inventory at the Viceroy (only a portion of the available condos are listed in the MLS). The next phase of the Viceroy, which is slated to commence construction in 2014, will add to the shadow inventory.

Similar to the Aspen market, the average discount that buyers have been negotiating on sales has diminished over the past few years. With average discounts in the 8% range in 2013 it’s clear the market is slowly heading back towards a seller’s market, although the large number of Viceroy condominium sales at fixed 5% discounts does skew the numbers for 2013.

Base Village has been such a central component to the Snowmass Village story, and this will continue to be the case for a number of years to come. The wild fluctuations in the Number of Sales and Sales Dollar Volume have largely been tied to the success of sales in 2007 and 2008, while the subsequent crash coincided with Base Village falling into receivership. 2013 marked the year when the Viceroy helped boost the overall Snowmass Village real estate market.


SNOWMASS VILLAGE Ski Report

Single Family Homes SNOWMASS VILLAGE Ski Report

Condominiums & Townhomes

Single Family Homes Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

Number of Listings/Sales 29 1 8 10 10 14 6 16

AVG Price per SQ FT $1,355 $1,814 $811 $926 $1,113 $1,077 $1,401 $1,505

AVG Sales Price N/A N/A $4,109,563 $4,911,840 $6,052,500 $5,419,275 $9,162,500 $7,356,750

AVG Asking Price $7,061,690 $9,950,000 $4,677,500 $5,835,400 $7,022,000 $6,337,857 $10,510,833 $7,830,313

AVG Original Price $7,277,207 $9,950,000 $5,321,875 $6,422,500 $7,232,340 $7,651,786 $11,006,667 $7,901,875

AVG Ask/Sold Discount N/A N/A 14.2% 15.4% 13.1% 12.9% 12.8% 7.1%

AVG Days on Market 418 183 594 409 278 272 325 142

Single Family Homes Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008


AVG Price per SQ FT $794 $607 $573 $518 $580 $704 $582 $837

AVG Sales Price N/A N/A $1,882,025 $1,706,329 $2,105,833 $3,148,077 $1,857,500 $3,450,177

AVG Asking Price $4,054,391 $1,595,000 $2,072,495 $1,894,500 $2,341,333 $3,683,838 $2,275,500 $3,789,154



0

5

10

15

20

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ski-Accessible Single Family Homes

Non Ski-Accessible Single Family Homes

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



Number of Sales

Non Ski-Accessible Properties

Ski-Accessible Properties

Average Ask/Sold Discount

Average Sales Price


AVG Ask/Sold Discount % N/A N/A 8.6% 9.6% 9.9% 14.1% 18.3% 8.7%

Number of Sales


Average Ask/Sold Discount (%)

Average Sales Price


Condos/Townhomes Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008


AVG Price per SQ FT $781 $621 $716 $640 $698 $760 $791 $1,088

AVG Asking Price $1,101,628 $689,500 $683,776 $899,227 $1,124,028 $1,322,689 $1,407,094 $1,256,682

AVG Original Price $1,149,579 $725,000 $718,903 $1,029,946 $1,216,659 $1,452,056 $1,587,406 $1,263,042


Condos/Townhomes Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008



AVG Asking Price $1,158,455 $679,750 $917,273 $535,156 $877,829 $961,500 $1,122,600 $948,333

AVG Original Price $1,211,603 $716,750 $971,825 $613,800 $995,965 $1,072,667 $1,374,800 $1,042,800


0

20

40

60

80

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ski-Accessible Condos/Townhomess

Non Ski-Accessible Condos/Townhomess

$300

$500

$700

$900

$1,100

$1,300

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



$300,000

$800,000

$1,300,000

$1,800,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013



Non Ski-Accessible Properties


AVG Sales Price N/A N/A $636,354 $812,195 $985,595 $1,131,417 $1,093,556 $1,233,199

AVG Sales Price N/A N/A $821,654 $483,265 $780,007 $793,167 $959,000 $901,933




ASPEN Current Market Activity

Single Family Homes SNOWMASS VILLAGE Current Market Activity

Single Family Homes2013

East Aspen Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008


AVG Price per SQ FT $1,104 $1,345 $927 $1,059 $1,070 $896 $1,170 $1,451

AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $3,342,575 $6,209,273 $5,556,688 $5,848,077 $7,657,143 $6,095,556

AVG Asking Price $5,888,750 $2,950,000 $3,729,933 $7,500,909 $6,362,181 $6,752,231 $9,457,143 $6,493,000




800290020102110221023102gnidnePdetsiLrelggumS


AVG Price per SQ FT $931 $0 $565 $674 $1,090 $759 $977 $1,110


AVG Asking Price $3,808,250 $0 $2,128,000 $4,881,667 $11,196,333 $4,914,667 $4,861,667 $4,803,182

AVG Original Price $3,949,500 $0 $2,128,000 $5,906,667 $11,468,000 $6,881,667 $5,615,000 $5,129,909

AVG Ask/Sold Discount % N/A 0 4.5% 16.1% 13.5% 8.8% 15.4% 7.0%

AVG Days on Market 293 0 110 1,242 415 516 375 754

Central Core Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008


AVG Price per SQ FT $1,473 $824 $1,383 $1,139 $1,349 $1,419 $1,418 $1,526


AVG Asking Price $10,622,091 $5,500,000 $3,839,600 $4,915,222 $7,862,500 $6,993,125 $6,612,178 $6,235,000




Red Mountain Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008




AVG Asking Price $12,796,389 $2,950,000 $9,752,636 $13,689,000 $9,809,286 $13,163,571 $22,315,000 $13,110,000




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AVG Price per SQ FT $1,437 $1,599 $1,397 $1,140 $1,245 $1,054 $1,145 $1,464


AVG Asking Price $5,316,190 $2,785,000 $7,311,231 $4,846,667 $7,153,625 $4,841,818 $5,800,933 $7,133,929




West Aspen Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008


AVG Price per SQ FT $1,222 $778 $984 $969 $818 $829 $1,015 $1,197


AVG Asking Price $9,627,413 $3,148,333 $6,566,952 $6,557,283 $6,987,929 $7,735,809 $8,147,333 $7,110,294





AVG Price per SQ FT $1,504 $0 $687 $840 $824 $1,076 $1,191 $1,923


AVG Asking Price $15,243,947 $0 $4,267,800 $12,828,429 $8,242,000 $10,280,000 $2,972,500 $6,325,000




McLain Flats/Starwood Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008

BE

ST

PR

EF

OR

ME

R

BE

ST

PR

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OR

ME

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The Divide Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008


AVG Price per SQ FT $1,428 $0 $0 $0 $0 $925 $1,727 $2,105

AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $0 $0 $0 $4,750,000 $9,500,000 $11,800,000

AVG Asking Price $7,922,500 $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,950,000 $10,975,000 $11,800,000

AVG Original Price $8,422,500 $0 $0 $0 $0 $8,500,000 $13,950,000 $11,800,000



Horse Ranch Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008




AVG Asking Price $3,125,000 $0 $2,761,667 $2,172,500 $3,655,000 $3,292,000 $2,865,000 $4,880,000




Melton Ranch/Wildridge Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008




AVG Asking Price $1,812,833 $0 $1,430,000 $1,702,000 $2,087,400 $1,399,950 $1,896,667 $2,407,333




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AVG Asking Price $8,483,750 $0 $9,672,500 $7,473,000 $12,250,000 $9,125,000 $9,700,000 $10,800,000



AVG Days on Market 305 0 1,006 275 143 297 506 115

Ridge Run Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008




AVG Asking Price $3,020,933 $0 $2,421,875 $3,587,000 $2,768,800 $4,297,143 $2,516,000 $4,446,667




Two Creeks Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008


AVG Price per SQ FT $1,627 $1,814 $0 $1,051 $1,493 $1,434 $1,682 $2,043

AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $0 $7,259,200 $8,700,000 $8,133,333 $18,500,000 $12,050,000

AVG Asking Price $9,192,143 $9,950,000 $0 $9,200,000 $9,622,500 $9,333,333 $19,995,000 $12,725,000

AVG Original Price $9,463,571 $9,950,000 $0 $9,300,000 $10,122,500 $11,566,667 $19,995,000 $12,725,000



Wood Run Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008


AVG Price per SQ FT $1,270 $0 $657 $694 $907 $814 $0 $1,241

AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $2,473,750 $2,175,000 $3,993,750 $3,573,370 $0 $5,039,778

AVG Asking Price $6,033,500 $0 $2,908,750 $2,695,000 $4,568,750 $4,037,000 $0 $5,515,556

AVG Original Price $6,147,786 $0 $3,447,500 $2,695,000 $4,969,600 $4,756,000 $0 $5,642,778




ASPEN & SNOWMASS VILLAGE Current Market Activity

Condominiums & Townhomes ASPEN & SNOWMASS VILLAGE Current Market Activity

Vacant Land

BE

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AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $694,735 $1,002,101 $2,249,600 $1,401,667 $743,763 $1,405,000

AVG Asking Price $1,438,095 $599,500 $747,000 $1,098,364 $2,458,000 $1,418,333 $833,750 $1,497,889

AVG Original Price $1,476,238 $674,500 $785,615 $1,195,545 $2,467,800 $1,474,333 $880,250 $1,530,889





AVG Price per SQ FT $1,424 $1,310 $1,167 $1,024 $1,129 $1,132 $1,257 $1,606


AVG Asking Price $2,383,769 $1,623,750 $1,965,989 $1,702,893 $2,227,234 $2,134,165 $2,098,400 $2,823,595






AVG Price per SQ FT $1,123 $0 $803 $862 $694 $672 $995 $1,442


AVG Asking Price $2,550,400 $0 $1,663,750 $1,223,600 $1,087,486 $1,218,200 $1,844,917 $1,987,167








AVG Asking Price $2,809,407 $1,690,000 $2,030,822 $2,203,692 $2,693,923 $3,143,029 $2,798,188 $3,364,821




Snowmass Village Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008



AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $693,812 $715,785 $923,184 $996,117 $1,061,519 $1,184,001

AVG Asking Price $1,113,805 $683,000 $756,178 $792,516 $1,049,289 $1,178,213 $1,339,357 $1,210,887

AVG Original Price $1,162,870 $719,500 $797,328 $907,972 $1,149,663 $1,300,300 $1,536,786 $1,230,333



NOTE: The original sale date for the majority of the Base Village condos was between Q4 2007 and Q4 2008.Basalt Proper Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008



AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $332,950 $373,790 $397,989 $408,932 $494,813 $691,300

AVG Asking Price $599,925 $783,333 $344,387 $396,716 $443,612 $487,771 $539,400 $723,350

AVG Original Price $615,175 $783,333 $371,593 $418,084 $564,686 $555,073 $616,000 $753,800



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AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $444,588 $272,432 $305,657 $450,072 $488,930 $674,808

AVG Asking Price $482,833 $579,000 $469,238 $281,984 $333,748 $476,039 $518,458 $706,554

AVG Original Price $542,333 $595,000 $464,238 $303,973 $377,661 $509,767 $591,905 $667,558



BE

ST

PR

EFO

RM

ER

East Aspen Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008


AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $2,263,875 $2,538,000 $2,500,000 $0 $1,887,500 $1,650,000

AVG Asking Price $3,930,000 $0 $2,573,750 $2,903,688 $2,847,500 $0 $1,997,500 $1,950,000

AVG Original Price $4,223,750 $0 $2,548,000 $3,254,000 $3,097,500 $0 $2,825,000 $1,950,000





AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $1,100,000 $740,000 $0 $0 $0 $4,105,000

AVG Asking Price $4,215,000 $0 $1,300,000 $2,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $4,250,000

AVG Original Price $5,065,000 $0 $1,500,000 $2,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $4,200,000





AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $2,950,000 $2,575,000 $0 $2,500,000 $1,950,000 $1,000,000

AVG Asking Price $2,000,000 $4,400,000 $2,950,000 $2,895,000 $0 $3,995,000 $1,950,000 $800,000

AVG Original Price $2,175,000 $4,400,000 $2,950,000 $3,425,000 $0 $3,995,000 $1,950,000 $800,000

AVG Ask/Sold Discount % N/A N/A 0.0% 11.0% 0.0% 37.4% 0.0% -25.0%


Red Mountain Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008


AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $4,750,000 $7,045,238 $0 $13,000,000 $0 $0

AVG Asking Price $6,118,000 $0 $5,558,750 $7,635,714 $0 $15,000,000 $0 $0

AVG Original Price $6,518,000 $0 $6,347,500 $8,557,143 $0 $15,000,000 $0 $0





AVG Sold Price N/A N/A $3,046,000 $3,490,000 $1,801,750 $2,000,000 $3,300,000 $0

AVG Asking Price $3,573,333 $0 $3,258,100 $3,830,000 $2,384,000 $2,395,000 $3,500,000 $0

AVG Original Price $3,573,333 $0 $3,468,000 $4,070,000 $2,534,000 $3,750,000 $3,500,000 $0






AVG Asking Price $3,762,667 $0 $3,030,833 $2,714,444 $2,304,750 $5,519,000 $4,553,571 $3,175,000




McLain Flats Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008



AVG Asking Price $5,169,167 $0 $2,619,000 $4,474,000 $1,895,000 $2,762,500 $0 $3,950,000

AVG Original Price $5,668,333 $0 $2,795,000 $5,349,000 $1,895,000 $3,112,500 $0 $3,950,000



Snowmass Village Listed Pending 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008



AVG Asking Price $3,519,111 $749,000 $1,441,000 $3,073,333 $1,143,800 $1,932,000 $0 $1,375,000

AVG Original Price $3,746,333 $749,000 $1,845,500 $3,073,333 $1,267,000 $2,063,000 $0 $1,375,000



An Aspen native, Andrew is a Broker Associate at Aspen Snowmass Sotheby’s International Realty in Aspen/Snowmass. He is experienced in luxury residential real estate as well as commercial sales and leasing. A testament to his work ethic and professional approach to the real estate business, Andrew served as 2013 President of the Aspen Board of REALTORS and was awarded REALTOR of the Year for 2013.

Andrew has deep connections in the Roaring Fork Valley, and uses his business savvy to help his clients achieve their goals. Whether it’s selling a downtown Aspen condominium or purchasing an ultra-luxury home on the ski slopes, Andrew is always thinking out of the box and striving to out hustle the competition. The complexity and nuances of the Aspen area real estate market demands a broker that can serve as your trusted advisor, something Andrew understands and excels at by diving deep into the local real estate market with a global lens.

Andrew regularly publishes real estate reports, and is often quoted in local media outlets as well as national and international publications including the Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, thestreet.com and the Denver Post. The most in-depth and comprehensive Aspen and Snowmass Village real estate reports can be found on Andrew’s website (www.AspenUpdate.com), along with videos, podcasts and news articles featuring Andrew’s perspective on local real estate trends and forecasts.

Andrew ErnemannBroker Associate2013 REALTOR® of the Year - Aspen Board of REALTORS®

Aspen SnowmassSotheby’s International Realty415 East Hyman AvenueAspen, CO 81611970-379-8125 Phone888-550-2881 [email protected]

the Aspen Snowmass MARKET REPORTWINTER 2014

Information in this report is from the Aspen/Glenwood MLS. The author is not responsible for any inaccuracies and you are advised to seek professional advice for any purchase or sale of real estate. ©2014.

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the Aspen Snowmass

MARKET REPORT

the aspen snowmass winter 2014 market report · basalt (7.6%), but down in snowmass village (8%)....

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