the indonesian telecommunication industry
TRANSCRIPT
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January 2011
Developed byICT Consulting Practice
Frost & Sullivan Asia Pacific
The Indonesian Telecommunication
Industry
“Mobile Monday”
Jan 25, 2011
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Needs to be connected…
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Industry Updates- 2010
• Indonesia is the 3rd largest wireless market
in Asia, behind China and India in terms of
number of subscribers that by end of 2010
Indonesia had an estimated 235.8 Mn
wireless subscribers
• SIM Penetration of approx. 96.9% (58%
unique subs) compared to 103.6 Mn
and a penetration rate of 44.2% at the
end of 2007
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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2007 201020092008
103.6 162.9 194.2 235.8
234.4 237.5 240.4 243.3 Population
Wireless Subs.
Penetration
Industry Updates- “Everybody needs one”
31.5%CAGR 2007-2010
Source: Frost & Sullivan
(in „000)
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ARPU- How low can we go?
2010 Blended ARPU
(USD)
7.2
6.9
4.6
3.7
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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2007 201020092008
3.5% 7.0% 7.4% Total Rev. Growth
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Voice & Data Market Revenue- Data Service is on
the Rise
USD Million
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Fixed Broadband- Indonesia lags behind in APAC
market
2010 Fixed Broadband Household
Penetration Rate
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Wireless Broadband- Broadband is fueled by
mobile wireless
2010 Wireless Broadband Penetration Rate
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Key Points 2010- Voice is flattening, data is on
the rise
• High “SIM” penetration of 97% by 2010 represents unique subscribers penetration of 58%- plenty room to go, it is commoditized and becoming “hygiene” factors
• 53% of the market is still on 3G while the rest are on 2.5 or 3G- in terms of “data services” this is our next segment to go
• Indonesia‟s blended ARPU stood at US$3.33 in 2010 & expected to go down to USD$ 2.99 by 2015- operators have to anticipate to cater for huge network capacity for expected high minutes (MoU/ sub.) from 170 minutes in 2010 to 194 minutes in 2015
• Combination of flattening voice revenue & increasing data-services revenue- in combination, how to sustain the business?
• “Internet” or data service fever are on the rise however the penetration is nascent with 17% wireless broadband
• Business challenge: High network capacity requirement , low incremental revenue take up, & high cost of spectrum/ license fee
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Wireless Subscribers- Outlook
2010E2009 2012E2011E 2014E2013E
80.8% 96.9% 108% %Penetration119% 129% 136%
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Wireless Market Revenue- Outlook
9.09%
2010E 2012E2011E 2014E2013E
CAGR: 18.9%
CAGR: 2.93%
CAGR 2010-2014
Source: Frost & Sullivan
USD Million
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Broadband Subscriptions- Outlook
29.2%
2010E 2012E2011E 2014E2013E
CAGR 2010-2014
Source: Frost & Sullivan
17.4% 22.9% 31.0% 37.6% 46.2%
%penetration
(in „000)
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2011 – Where are we going next?
• Indonesia has already shown a strong inclination towards smartphone use, with close to 3 Mn BlackBerry handset users in the market
• 2nd largest “facebook” after the USA and “Twitter” world's highest penetration rate at 20.8% - the demand is huge, now it is left to the business to fulfill the gap
• To answer key question on “data” business: How to monetize data services in the midst of “free” society and keep business‟ profitability?
• To deliver quality & reliability of data services- be it fixed or mobile
• The Indonesian government estimates that it will need an additional 150,000 to 200,000 towers over the next five to seven years, each costing roughly US$100,000- another area of operators‟ diversifications
• “Human capital” or people side of the business, most of the time is “second in priority”- are the resources ready for the next business era?
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Thank you- “You are connected”
Source: Facebook.com
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Partial List of Clients
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Dewi NurainiCorporate Communications
Indonesia
Phone : (021) 571.0838 / 571.3246
Email : [email protected]
For Additional Information
Iwan RachmatSenior Cosultant,
Information & Communication Technologies
Indonesia
Phone : (021) 571.0838 / 571.3246
Email : [email protected]
www.frost.com