The Past as Prologue:Conclusions

Latinos and the 2008 ElectionsLecture 9

October 28, 2008

Questions for This Week’s Readings – We’ll Discuss

Thursday

Under what circumstances can Latinos influence the outcomes of statewide elections? Think about different forms of influence And different ways that influence can be

evaluated How could electoral rules/practices be

changed to enhance Latino influence?

Stages of the Presidential Campaign

1. Pre-campaign Candidate self-selection Key time point – previous mid-term election

2. Primaries Candidate selection, usually early in primary

season (late Winter) Candidate positioning and fundraising

3. Convention Opportunity for party elites to meet and greet Uninterrupted opportunity to state message

4. General election

2000 and 2004 Primaries

Democrats seeking to create opportunity for Latino voice (2004)

Latino Democrats joined the Gore and Kerry bandwagons earlier and stronger They did little to campaign for their votes, though Result –untested in terms of outreach

2004 – Sharpton (African American candidate) didn’t appeal to Latino voters Black plurality always went to Kerry Latinos supported only marginally more than

whites

Latinos and the Party Conventions, 2000 and

2004 Number of Latino delegates steadily growing,

particularly on Democratic side 2000

Los Angeles site of Democratic convention Bush assured a prominent symbolic place for Latinos

entertainers and political leaders 2004

Bill Richardson, Chair of Democratic Convention Latino delegates did organize and saw daily visits from party

leaders Few prominent Latino speakers during prime time Latino delegates, like most delegates, window dressing Conventions offer little opportunity to shape

candidate’s policy objectives

Democratic Party Delegates, by Race/Ethnicity, 1984-2008

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Whites African Americans Latinos

Where Were Latinos at the Start of the Fall

Campaign? 2000 & 2004 – competitive states not the big

Latino states Latinos less courted that in 1996

Gore and Kerry showed little Latino outreach Campaigns moved to Tennessee, Boston, and

Austin Bush (2001) made a major symbolic proposal

– the guest worker program – but had done little to follow up

Kerry tried to reach out as a Catholic and through Teresa Kerry (an immigrant from Mozambique who ancestry is Portuguese)

Latino Votes in the 2000 and 2004

Elections Latino voices muted (in federal races) Outcome of elections was out of the

control of Latino communities In states where unity and turnout could

have led to influence, the evidence is mixed

Concerns about exit polls will make the Latino voice a subject of continuing dispute

Latino Vote Share, 2004Bush Kerry

National 38-41% 57-60%

Arizona 42% 58%

California 31% 65%

Colorado 28% 70%

Florida 54% 46%

Illinois 22% 77%

New Jersey 41% 56%

New Mexico 41% 57%

New York 18% 80%

Texas 52% 47%

These Results Somewhat Disputed

William C. Velasquez Research Institute Exit Poll

Nation Kerry – 67.7 percent Bush – 31.4 percent Sample – 1,179 respondents in 56 precincts in 14

states Florida

Kerry – 52.0 percent Bush – 45.7 percent Sample – 1,147 respondents in 45 precincts in nine

counties

Who in the Latino Community Shifted Between 2000 and

2004? Toward Bush

Texas Latinos Religiously-observant Latinos 2nd generation (the children of immigrants)

Toward Kerry/the Democrats Florida Latinos 2nd generation Cubans

Unique to 2004 Two Senate races with Latino candidates

Latino Vote ShareSenate Races, 2004

Democrat Republican

Arizona 29% 70%

California 72% 19%

Colorado 72% 25%

Florida 41% 59%

Illinois 83% 16%

New York 80% 19%

Nevada 67% 27%

Lessons from Recent Elections

Latino role limited Internally – weak Latino organization to shape

outcomes Externally

Compositional factors reduce Latino vote (and incentive for political institutions to mobilize Latinos)

Electoral College focused election primarily on non-Latino concentration states

Rhetoric of importance of Latino vote remained high Bush used strategically to position himself as a

moderate who could move the Republicans to long-term dominance

Question at end of 2004 race of whether Latinos were moving toward the Republicans

The Second Bush Administration

Steadily declining presidential influence 2006 Election

Democrats become majority in House and Senate

Leading Republican Presidential candidate – Virginia’s George Allen – defeated in upset

Newly emerging Latino voices Three Latinos elected to the U.S. Senate 2006 immigrant’s rights protests

Early 2006: Unprecedented Immigrant

Civic Activism

Why? Bush proposal (2004)

Guest workers/enforcement House bill – HR 4437 (passed 2005)

Unauthorized status a felony Fence/enforcement Employer penalties Authorizes use of the military to enforce

immigration law No guest worker program or legalization

The Marches in Public Opinion and Policy

Congress Took ‘criminalization’ out of the policy debate Forced immigration-moderates into the debate

Backlash Energized anti-immigrant movement/candidates Restrictionists vocal in 2006 elections Fence authorized

Latino/immigrant leaders Tested new leadership coalition Leaders have shifted focus from mass mobilization

to electoral power

New Focus on Electoral Power Risky

Marchers: immigrants and their U.S. citizen children (youth/young adults) Key “new” organizational resource:

Hometown associations/federations Built on more traditional resources:

churches, unions, immigrant rights groups Electoral influence not in the control of

the immigrant organizations Need close elections in immigrant/ethnic

areas $

From Immigrant Marchers to Voters

1. [For unauthorized] Legalization (and maybe “guest worker” period)

2. [For permanent residents and the newly legalized] Naturalization

3. [For U.S. citizens disengaged from electoral politics, young adults, and new citizens] Registration

4. [For registered voters] Electoral mobilization

Each of these steps is hard, let alone putting them all together

Even If Latino/Immigrant Organizations are

Successful Risk of a backlash Many of the Democrats who were

elected from traditionally Republican districts in 2006, 2007, and so far in 2008, take moderately restrictive views of immigration reform

Partisan Divide, Importance of

Immigration, 2007

Source: Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2007