trends in den globalen rückversicherungsmärkten
TRANSCRIPT
Trends in den globalen Rückversicherungsmärkten Dirk Spenner Juni 2017
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
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Willis Towers Watson, Willis Re
Marktüberblick
ILS Update
Naturgefahrenrückversicherung
Ausblick RV-Industrie
Agenda
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
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Kombiniertes Geschäft (Zahlen gerundet)
Investment, Risk & Reinsurance (IRR)
$8+ Mrd. Umsatz
$8+ BN Revenue ~140
Länder ~40.000
Mitarbeiter
Neue Größe – einzigartige Servicemöglichkeiten Willis Towers Watson / Willis Re
Umsatz nach Geschäftsbereich
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Willis Towers Watson
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Organisation
Willis Re Risk
Consulting & Software
Wholesale/ Miller
Broking Investment
Portfolio & Under- writing
Services
Capital Markets & Advisory
Sergio Montoya LAC
Mark Morley Asia Pacific
Alkis Tsimaratos EMEA S/W
Dirk Spenner EMEA N/E
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Marktüberblick
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
1. Januar 1. April
Property Cat Cat Loss Free Cat Loss Hit Property Cat Cat Loss Free Cat Loss Hit
% change % change % change % change
Europa -4% bis -6% N/A Indien -5% bis -10% 0% bis +5% U.S.A. - Nationwide 0% bis -5% +5% bis +15% Japan - Combined Earthquake/Wind -5% bis -7.5% N/A
Australien / Neuseeland -2.5% bis -7.5% -5% bis +15% Japan - Earthquake -5% bis -7.5% N/A Asien -7.5% bis -15% +10% bis +15% Japan - Wind -2.5% bis -7.5% N/A
Korea -10% N/A Deutschland -2% bis -6% variiert U.S.A. - Nationwide 0% bis -5% +5% bis +15%
Globale Ratenentwicklung 2017: 1. Januar / 1. April
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Europa-Prämien unter dem historischen Tiefstand
Kombinierte US, UK, Europa & Japan CAR ROL Index
Source: Willis Analytics
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Versicherte SchädenNicht-versicherte SchädenDurchschn. versicherte SchädenDurchschn. nicht-versicherte Schäden
+120
$110
$82
$150
$31 $28
$42
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2014 2015 2016
in M
rd. $
Volkswirtschaftliche und versicherte NatKat-Schäden 2014 vs 2015 vs 2016
Volkswirtschaftliche NatKat-Schäden Versicherte NatKat-Schäden
Versicherte KAT-Schäden
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Größte Schadenbelastung seit 2012 Versicherte Schäden aus Naturkatastrophen von
US$ 42Mrd. (inkl. “Man-made” US$ 50 Mrd.) Rekordbelastung an wirtschaftlichen Schäden aus
Naturkatastrophen seit 2012 mit US$ 158 Mrd. Großteil der Schäden verblieben im Eigenbehalt der Versicherer mit Ausnahme des Erdbebens in Japan und dem Großbrand in Kanada
In 2016 über 10-Jahres Durchschnitt
Quelle: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting (via Artemis)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Japan USA & Karibik USA Europa Kanada
Erdbeben Hurrikan Matthew Hagelstürme Stürme & Flut Feuer
Schä
den i
n Mrd
. $
Teuerste versicherte Katastrophenschäden in 2016
Versicherte Schäden Nicht-versicherte Schäden Geschätze Schäden
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
12/2007 12/2008 12/2009 12/2010 12/2011 12/2012 12/2013 12/2014 12/2015 12/2016Geschäftsjahr
Rückversichererkapital weltweit
-20%
17%
20% -2%
10%
inMr
d. $
8.5%6.5% -2%
5.3%
60%70%80%90%
100%110%120%130%140%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Anwachsen des globalen Eigenkapitals der Rückversicherer um 5,3%
Steigende Schäden aus Naturkatastrophen im 1. HJ 2016 ließen die Combined Ratio auf 93,1% anwachsen (+3,7% ggü. 1. HJ 2015)
Combined Ratios werden durch Preisabrieb in 2017 weiter steigen, sofern das Niveau der KAT-Schäden sich nicht reduziert
Kapital- wachstum
Steigende Combined
Ratios
Rückversicherungsmarkt Starkes Ergebnis – starke Kapitalbasis
Quelle: Willis Analytics
Combined Ratios der globalen nicht-Leben Rückversicherer
8 © 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
“Reinsurers will barely cover their costs of capital over the next 2 years” – S&P
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We currently expect return on capital in 2016 & 2017 to drop to 5.5%-7.5% (from 8.5% at the end of 2015)
At the end of 2015, the cost of capital for the sector was 6.6% and this is likely to decline to about 6% over 2016/17
*S&P Global Ratings report – Insurance Markets - “Reinsurers approach a tipping point as profitability threatens to sustainably fall below the cost of capital”
S&P Global Ratings Report
*Weighed average cost of capital
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Situation des Marktes
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Bereinigter ROE der Rückversicherer liegt unterhalb der Kapitalkosten
Kapitalkosten der Branche gemäß S&P Global Ratings*>6,0%
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Rückversicherungsmarkt
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Verbesserung des Produkts vermehrt
Interesse an: − Frequenzschutz und Mehrjahres-deckungen in
Property − Clash Deckungen und Cyber Lösungen
in Casualty
Kaufverhalten − Kapitaleffizienz als Treiber der Nachfrage − Steigendes Interesse an Ertragssicherung
Steigender Wettbewerb durch InsurTechs − Innovative Startups mit geringen Kosten − Finanziert durch Kapitalmärkte oder
Rückversicherer
Suche nach Stabilität − Ergebnisse noch zu auskömmlich, um den Trend der
Vorjahre zu beenden − Stärkere Segmentierung von Kunden als Element in
der Preisfindung größerer Rückversicherer
Kapital − Stabile profitable Kapazität aus traditionellen Märkten
mit anhaltendem Wachstum alternativer Quellen − Investoren erweitern ihren Fokus (u.a. Kraftfahrt)
Rückversicherungsmärkte − M&A Aktivitäten kühlten im Vergleich zum Jahr 2015
ab, jedoch auch viel beachtete Fusionen
1st View Highlights
Nachfrage: Stark Angebot: Moderiert
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
ILS Update
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Entwicklung des ILS Marktes Ein weiteres Wachstumsjahr—alternatives Kapital macht nun ca. 22% des gesamten Rückversicherungskapital aus (USD 338.3 Mrd.)
$3 $4 $5 $6 $7$10
$15$20
$16 $18 $19$24
$35
$50
$65$70
$75
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
$80
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Liquid ILS Illiquid ILS SidecarsSource: Industry publications, WCMA Transaction Database and internal estimates as of 12/31/16.
Signifikantes Wachstum des ILS Kapitals im Rückversicherungssektor
Beschleunigtes Wachstum in den letzten 4 Jahren bei besicherten Papieren und Versicherungs-Sidecars
Der ILS Sektor hat sich in der Rückversicherungsindustrie mit gefestigten Strukturen etabliert
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Development Phase Fast Money Growth Strategic Investor Growth
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Neue Risiken versicherbar
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U.S. Parametric Ppty. Nat. Cat Bond
New Cedant Types
New Triggers
New Perils New Geographies
New Structures
Life Lottery OpRisk
Indemnity
Industry Loss Index
Modelled Loss
Hybrid
Life Insurer
Corporate
Collateralised Re
Semi-permanent Sidecar
Active Sidecar
Private Placement
Willis Towers Watson Resilience Re Platform
Govt. & Pools
WTW Placement
Breitgefächertes Angebotsspektrum
Motor Third-Party Liability
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Naturgefahrenrückversicherung
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Weltweit NatKat Ereignisse 2015
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“Ein moderater Schadenverlauf in 2015 erzeugte geschönte Ergebnisse für die Rückversicherungsindustrie” (Willis Re Kat-Markt Report)
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Hydrologische und Meteorologische Ereignisse im Aufwärtstrend
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2011
Thailand Flooding 2011
Anzahl von Schadenereignissen 1980-2014
Versicherte Flut-Schäden von 1970-2011 in m USD
Source: Munich Re Source: Swiss Re
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Klimaprognose – Steigendes Konvektionspotential?
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Mit Hilfe von Trendanalysen und Signifikanztests wurden langjährige Zeitreihen hagelrelevanter Konvektions-indizes (KI) für Deutschland und Mitteleuropa untersucht, um die Änderung des Konvektionspotentials in der Vergangenheit über einen Zeitraum von 30-50 Jahren zu bestimmen und einen Trend zu ermitteln. Kooperationen Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) Helmholtz-Verbund Regionale Klimaänderungen (REKLIM) Stiftung Umwelt und Schadenvorsorge, Stuttgart SV Sparkassenversicherung, Stuttgart Willis Research Network (WRN), London
Abb.: Linearer Trend des 90% (10%) Perzentils verschiedener Indizes (1978-2009). Rot (Blau) bedeutet eine Zunahme (Abnahme) des Gewitterpotentials im Umkreis von 100km um die jeweilige Radiosondenstation.
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Management von (Nat-)Kat Gefahren
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Own View of Risk – Aufbau eines internen Steuerungsmodells
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
NatKat Gefahren im Überblick
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Eine Häufung von kleinen und mittleren Naturgefahrenschäden in
der näheren Zukunft ist wahrscheinlich.
Die Ertragssituation der Rückversicherer
ist kritisch
Das Angebot an Rückversicherungs-
kapazität bleibt hoch, die Rückversicherer
sind flexibel.
Eine eigene, explizite Risikoeinschätzung hilft
sowohl dem internen Risikomanagement als auch bei der Erfüllung
regulatorischer Vorgaben
Die eigene Risiko- und Ertragssituation des Zedenten steuert die Nachfrage, nicht der
Preis.
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Ausblick RV-Industrie
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Versicherung in 2025?
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Technologie Kapital
Risikoquelle Produkt- Design Kapitalpools
Eigen-kapital
Investoren und
sonstiges Kapital
Rückver- sicherung
Revolution oder Evolution?
Verschiedene Vertriebskanäle
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Cyber Insurance
Lebensrück- versicherung Legacy Risks
Earnings Protection
Kapital Lösungen
Kapitalerwägungen und Regulierungs-druck sind Schlüsselfaktoren für den Risikoappetit. Rückversicherung gewinnt an Bedeutung für das Bilanzmanagement (prospektiv & retrospektiv).
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Markt Dynamik
Renditen der Rückversicherer drohen unter die Kapitalkosten zu fallen, wenn sich die Ratenreduktionen weiter fortsetzen.
Trends in der Rückversicherung
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Cyber Insurance
Lebensrück- versicherung Legacy Risks
Earnings Protection
Kapital Lösungen
Kapitalerwägungen und Regulierungs-druck sind Schlüsselfaktoren für den Risikoappetit. Rückversicherung gewinnt an Bedeutung für das Bilanzmanagement (prospektiv & retrospektiv).
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Markt Dynamik
Renditen der Rückversicherer drohen unter die Kapitalkosten zu fallen, wenn sich die Ratenreduktionen weiter fortsetzen.
Trends in der Rückversicherung
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Lebensrückversicherung
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Stornorisiko
Massenstorno
Beendigung von 40% der Versicherungsverträge*
Stornoranstieg/-rückgang
50% dauerhafter Anstieg*/ Rückgang der Stornorate**
SII Stresstests Storno
MassenstornoStornoanstieg
Stornorückgang
Exposure Pandemien Terrorismus Naturkatastrophen Zufälliger Anstieg
Reinsurance Mixer
Contingent Capital
Legacy Risks
ZZR Finanzierung
Group
Sub 1 Reinsurance Mixer Sub 2
Quota share reinsurance Quota share reinsurance
Beginning of the year End of the year
Protects the Solvency Margin against a deterioration below 100%
Tier 2 capital turns into Tier 1 capital in the
event of ceded losses:
100%
Stop loss capacity
EUR
m
Eligible Own
Funds
Enable Strategic Repositioning
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Cyber Insurance
Lebensrück- versicherung Legacy Risks
Earnings Protection
Kapital Lösungen
Kapitalerwägungen und Regulierungs-druck sind Schlüsselfaktoren für den Risikoappetit. Rückversicherung gewinnt an Bedeutung für das Bilanzmanagement (prospektiv & retrospektiv).
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Markt Dynamik
Renditen der Rückversicherer drohen unter die Kapitalkosten zu fallen, wenn sich die Ratenreduktionen weiter fortsetzen.
Trends in der Rückversicherung
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Legacy Risks
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Aufgabenstellung
Sanierung des bestehenden Geschäftsmodells
Verbesserung run-off oder Kommutationsstrategie
Abteilungsunterstützung & Outsourcing
RV-Pricing & Platzierung
Prozessmanagement bei Beendigung einer Sparte
Restrukturierung & M&A Beratung
Risk, Consulting & Software
Ansatz Partner
CSPG
Enable Strategic Repositioning
Back-up Historic Reinsurance
Support Mergers & Acquisitions
Manage Ratings
Enhance Investment Returns
Facilitate Balance Sheet Protection
Cost Control
Manage Regulatory Capital
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Cyber Insurance
Lebensrück- versicherung Legacy Risks
Earnings Protection
Kapital Lösungen
Kapitalerwägungen und Regulierungs-druck sind Schlüsselfaktoren für den Risikoappetit. Rückversicherung gewinnt an Bedeutung für das Bilanzmanagement (prospektiv & retrospektiv).
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Markt Dynamik
Renditen der Rückversicherer drohen unter die Kapitalkosten zu fallen, wenn sich die Ratenreduktionen weiter fortsetzen.
Trends in der Rückversicherung
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!
Q&A
© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.
Willis Re disclaimers
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This analysis has been prepared by Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc. and/or the “Willis Towers Watson” entity with whom you are dealing (“Willis Towers Watson” is defined as Willis Limited, Willis Re Inc., and each of their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, and all member companies thereof) on condition that it shall be treated as strictly confidential and shall not be communicated in whole, in part, or in summary to any third party without written consent from Willis Towers Watson.
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© 2017 Willis Towers Watson. All rights reserved. The statements and opinions included in this Presentation are those of the individual speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Willis Limited and/or Willis Re Inc., or their respective parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries, affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC, or any member companies thereof.