Vladimir Ryabinin World Climate Research Programme

WMO/ICSU/IOC

World Climate Research Programe

Climate and CryosphereProject

1st IGOS-P Cryosphere Theme workshop, 2-4 March 2005, Kananaskis, Canada

Established 1980

Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1993+)

World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)

Objectives♦ To determine the predictability of climate♦ To determine the effect of human activities on climate

Earth System Science Partnershipfor Global Change Research

Start

• an integrated study of the Earth System,

• the changes occurring to the System, and

• the implications for global sustainability.

Integrated Regional Studies

e.g. What are the critical thresholds/ switches/ hot spotsin the Earth System?

Earth System Questions

Source – Guy Brasseur (IGBP Congress, 2003)

Arctic Sea Ice

O3

Carbon cycle

GEWEX 1988 SPARC 1992

CLIVAR 1995 ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000

SOLAS 2001 ->

WGObsAssim

Model- lingPanelCoordinated Observation and

Prediction of the Earth System

CliC 2000 WGNEWGCMWGSFIPABTask Forces

Coordinated Observation and Prediction of the Earth System (COPES)

 

has as its aim:

To facilitate

analysis and prediction of Earth system variability and change for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society.

 

What is the WCRP’s long-range vision?

Coupled PhysicalBiologicalChemicalModels

Data and ModellingInfrastructure

EarthSystemModels

Operational Climate Observing System

Operational ClimatePrediction System

Regional ClimateAnomalyPrediction

Future emission scenarios

Effects of natural variability

Modelling of Earth system processes

Sources of uncertainty

Ice sheets, cryo

Hydrology Veg. C cycle

Mid 1970s Mid 1980s Early 1990s Late 1990s Around 2000 Present day

•Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP)

•Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ARMIP)

•Asian-Australian Monsoon Atmospheric GCM Intercomparison Project

•Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)

•Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom)

•Carbon-Cycle Model Linkage Project (CCMLP)

•Climate of the Twentieth Century Project (C20C)

•Cloud Model Feedback Intercomparison Project

•Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)

•Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP)

•Dynamics of North Atlantic Models (DYNAMO)

•Ecosystem Model-Data Intercomparison (EMDI)

•Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs)

•ENSO Intercomparison Project (ENSIP)

•GEWEX Atmospheric Boundary Layer Study (GABLS)

•GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS)

•GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS)

•Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)

•Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP)

•Models and Measurements II (MMII): Stratospheric Transport

•Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP)

•Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

•Paleo Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP)

•Project for Intercomparison of Landsurface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS)

•Potsdam DGVM Intercomparison Project

•Potsdam NPP Model Intercomparison Project

•Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations (PIRCS)

•Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for Asia (RMIP)

•Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP)

•Snow Models Intercomparison Project (SnowMIP )

•Stretched Grid Model Intercomparison Project (SGMIP)

•Study of Tropical Oceans In Coupled models (STOIC)

•WCRP F11 Intercomparison

•WCRP Radon Intercomparison

•WCRP Scavenging Tracer Intercomparison

•Ice sheet Model Intercomparison Project

•Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE)

•Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2 (SMIP-2) and Seasonal Prediction Model Intercomparison Project-2/Historical Forecast (SMIP-2/HFP)

Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st

century (Fichefet et al., GRL, 2003) Climate-change scenario with an AOGCM

coupled to a 3-D model of the Greenland ice sheet

Changes in annual mean total fresh-water flux from Greenland

Freshwater flux from Greenland prescribed Freshwater flux from Greenland interactive

Changes in annual mean SAT (in °C) averaged over years 2096-2100

Collapse of the THC

+ realistic modelling of ice sheets, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, see CliC Conference

Current tasks for WCRP as a whole (only ones dealing with the cryosphere, first slide):

Seasonal prediction (what is predictability potential in cryospheric part of the climate system?) Encouraging results in some areas: links do exist

Projection of the mean sea level rise (we address the area of highest uncertainty)

Ice Age simulations – for the first time there is a potential

Cryospheric input to water management – more and more important for national economies

Current tasks for WCRP as a whole (only ones dealing with the cryosphere, continuation but possibly not the end):

Future of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean

Possibility of abrupt climate change

Carbon – its links to cryospheric influences

Monsoon prediction (involving Tibetian Plateau)

“Cryospheric” contribution to Earth System models and DAS

A need to think about a reanalysis of the cryosphere?

On-going polar reanalysis

Is CEOP’s approach applicable?

CEOP: The First Global Data Sets of the Water Cycle

Courtesy GEWEX IPO

Considerations (1):

Group on Earth Observations

GCOS (Implementation Plan: UNFCCC, Kyoto)

WCRP WGOA, projects, GEWEX, CLIVAR, SOLAS, OASIS, AICI, NEESPI, IPA, ISAC

Work with relevant panels of the WCRP: IPAB, IABP, Arctic Climate Panel, Southern Ocean Panel, Data Management & Information Panel

CliC Panel on Cryospheric Observations, role in IGOS-P and in advice to GCOS

Considerations (2):

Polar GOOS

Mix of proven and experimental technology

IPY – opportunity

National activities (e.g, such as CRYSYS)

Regional bodies, ICARPII

IGOS-P Theme on Cryosphereby CliC and SCAR, to be led by CliC Obs. Panel

• GCOS/GTOS: GTN-P, GTN-G, GTN-H, CALM, etc.

• ARCTIC-HYCOS, GTN-R, GTN-L, etc.

• AOOS

• SO OS

• GOOS and JCOMM sea-ice compartments

• WGMS, GLIMS

Combined system for observations of soil, meeting requirements of hydrology, geocryology, climate and biogeochemical modelling

Marine Cryosphere

Alpine Cryosphere

IGOS-P 11, 27 May 2004, Rome

To combine?

For Marine Cryosphere:

Is it only about the sea-ice as such but may be also about observations depending on it, like ice-tethered platforms, polar oceanographic observations and also related observations?

There is a need to at least indicate related systems, a chapter on dependent observations

Partners in the Theme

Proposers: WCRP through CliC, ICSU through SCAR

Chair: Jeffrey Key (NOAA)

Vice-Chair: Mark Drinkwater (ESA)

Core contributors from partners:

CliC: Barry Goodison, Vladimir Ryabinin, Chad Dick

SCAR: Colin Summerhayes

WMO: Don Hinsman

23 other experts indicated agreement to contribute

Not all themes yet covered by the authors

IGOS-P Theme on Cryosphere

IGOS-P Cryo website:

http://stratus.ssec.wisc.edu/IGOS-cryoFirst regional workshop: 2-4 March

2005, Kananaskis, Alberta, CanadaA workshop in Europe and probably in

Asia will followEARSeL community is cordially invited

(urged) to participate!

CliC First Science ConferenceCryosphere - The "Frozen" Frontier of Climate Science:

Theory, Observations, and Practical Applications 11-15 April 2005

China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China Sponsors

• China Meteorological Administration (CMA)

• Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)

• Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration (CAAA)

• CliC International Project Office (CIPO)

• Environment Canada

• Japan Agency for Marine Science & Technology (JAMSTEC)

• NASA Cryospheric Sciences

• Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)

• NSF Antarctic Program

• NOAA Arctic Research Office

• Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI)

• World Climate Research Program (WCRP)

Approach

update user requirements, study of how they are met by current,

planned and prospective in situ and remotely sensed observations,

propose the way forward trying to build on adequate mix of satellite and in-situ observations,

try to achieve consensus on priorities and wide acceptance of the recommendations.