wind power energy resources and mid/long term...

May 2014

JAPAN WIND POWER ASSOCIATIONhttp://jwpa.jp

1

Wind Power Energy Resources and Mid/Long Term Target (V4.3)

Nikaho, Akita Pref.

Yokohama, Kanagawa Pref.

2

Overview of the Target

Mid/Long Term Wind Capacity Target V4.3

Measures necessary to achieve the target（related to power grid management）– Introduction of nationwide power system management

The upper limit of wind power capacity in V4.3 is 50% of total power generation capacity in the 50Hz and 60Ｈｚ areas respectively. In V3.2 it was 50% of power generation capacity in regional utility company areas respectively. The upper limit in V4.3 is larger than that in V3.2 due to a leveling effect.

– Construction /expansion of intra- and inter-regional transmission lines in order to provide enough transmission capacity for wind power development

– Introduction of power generation forecast system based on weather forecast to variable renewable energy, which will be incorporated into national power supply planning

– Construction /expansion of power storage system (pumped hydro, batteries) as balancing power source and introduction of demand response system

– Retrofit of turbines and burners/mills in boiler in existing thermal power plants for fast and wide output adjustment

– Utilization of generator operation control such as suppression of max. output or adjustment of increasing output rate

– Utilization of battery storage energy control system (group control system) for power fluctuation

＊Estimate of power demand in 2050 and actual power demand in 2010 Scenario A：930TWh ・assuming more concentration of population and capital in urban areas because of the increase in urban preferences of the people and pursuit of

convenience/efficient lifestyles.

Scenario B：758TWh ・assuming decentralization because of the increasing need for slower lifestyles of the people.(source: http://2050.nies.go.jp/report/file/lcs_japan/2050_LCS_Scenarios_Actions_English_080715.pdf)

Actual power demand in 2010: 1,045Bil kWh(source: http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/info/statistics/denryoku/result-2.htm)

V3.2（Feb 2012） or before

Assumption Wind power supply in FY2050 will exceed 10% of total actual power demand in FY2010

Target ５０ＧＷ in FY2050

V4.3（May 2014）

Wind power supply in FY2050 will exceed 20% of total expected power demand in FY2050

７５ＧＷ in FY2050

Definitions of the Terms

Energy Resources The theoretically calculated capacity of energy resources, except for the energy resources

that are obviously impossible to utilize (for example: wind energy at a wind speed of less than 5.5 m/s) and with no consideration of various limiting factors (land applications,applications of technologies, laws and regulations, etc.).

Available Energy The capacity of available energy resources with consideration of various limiting factors of

recovery and application of energy; the potential for introduction under particular social conditions at a time.

Available Energy by Scenario The capacity of energy resources by a particular scenario (hypothetical conditions) relating

to income and expenditures for the business applied to the potential for introduction; the potential for introduction under particular scenarios for income and expenditures for the business.

Note;

Total capacity of power plants of Electric Companies≒200 ＧＷ

capacity/area conversion at 10,000 kW/1ｋｍ2

＊Reference: Study of Potential for the introduction of Renewable Energy for FY 2010 （Ministry of the Environment） Prepared by JWPA

Theoretical Capacity of Onshore Wind Energy Resources/Potential of Introduction/Potential of Introduction by the scenarios

Energy Resources

Available Energy

Available Energy by Scenario Installed Capacity (GW)

Scenario 1(15) Scenario 2(20) Scenario 3(22) Scenario 4(25)

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Available Energy of Onshore Wind Power

Available energy of onshore wind power calculated from the energy resourceswith the average wind speed of more than 6.0 m/s at 80 meters height, with consideration of social limiting factors as follows:

Without consideration of the capacities of the electric power companies：209.83 GW （1.02 times total capacity of entire electric power

plants）

Total capacity of electric power companies as the upper limit: 74.36 GW （0.36 times total capacity of entire electric power plants）(assumption: average capacity factor of wind power generators =25%)

Source: Study of Potential for the introduction of Renewable Energy for FY 2010 （Ministry of the Environment） Prepared by JWPA

Available energy of onshore wind power and generation capacity of each regional electric power company

Plant capacities of each electric companies

Potential for introduction by local governments plant capacity

(10,000 kW)

Hokkaido Tohoku Tokyo HokurikuChubu

KansaiChugoku

ShikokuKyushu

Okinawa

Pla

nt

cap

acitie

s (1

0,0

00kW

)

4

＊：60Hz excludes Okinawa

Available Energy of Fixed Offshore Wind Power(excluding islands)

(Projects less than 30km from shore, less than 50m in depth)

Available energy of Fixed offhore wind power calculated from the theoretical capacity of the energy resources more than 7.0 m/s at 80 meters height for the feasibility of the business under consideration ofsocial limiting factors as follows:

Without consideration of the capacities of the electric power companies ：156.46 GW （0.76 times total capacity of entire electric power

plants）

Total capacity of electric power companies as the upper limit : 61.65 GW （0.30 times total capacity of entire electric power plants）(assumption: average capacity factor of wind power generators =30%)

Source: Study of Basic Information for Planning and Zoning for Renewable Energy FY 2013（Ministry of the Environment）. Prepared by JWPA

Available energy of Fixed offshore wind power and generation capaciy of each regional electric power company



KansaiChugoku

ShikokuKyushu

Okinawa

Pla

nt

cap

acitie

s (1

0,0

00kW

)

5


Available Energy of Floating Offshore Wind Power (excluding islands)(Projects less than 30km from shore, 50-200m in depth)

Available energy of Floating offshore wind power calculated from the theoretical capacity of the energy resources more than 7.5 m/s at 80 meters height for the feasibility of the business under consideration of social limiting factors as follows:

Without consideration of the capacities of the electric power companies：300.46 GW （1.45 times total capacity of entire electric power

plants）

Total capacity of electric power companies as the upper limit: 84.8 GW （0.41 times total capacity of entire electric power plants）(assumption: average capacity factor of wind power generators =35%)

Source: Study of Basic Information for Planning and Zoning for Renewable Energy FY 2013（Ministry of the Environment）. Prepared by JWPA

Available energy of floating offshore wind power generation and generation capacity of each electric power company



KansaiChugoku

ShikokuKyushu

Okinawa

Pla

nt

cap

acitie

s (1

0 M

W)

6


Conservative Scenario

Available energy may go up/down due to changes in social constraints or due diligence results, “Conservative Scenario(Bottom line)” is introduced.

Onshore: 1/2 of available energy, Fixed offshore: 1/3 of available energy,

Floating offshore: 1/4 of available energy Without consideration of the capacities of the electric power companies： 232.18 GW （1.12 times total capacity of entire electric power

plants）

Total capacity of electric power companies as the upper limit : 76.72 GW （0.37 times total capacity of entire electric power plants）

7(Source: Study of Potential for the introduction of Renewable Energy for FY 2010 and Study of Basic Information for Planning and Zoning for Renewable Energy FY 2013 （Ministry of the Environment）. Prepared by JWPA


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

容量

［万

ｋW

］

堅実なポテンシャルと電力会社発電設備容量（2010年）

浮体風力

着床風力

陸上風力

発電設備容量＊4/4発電設備容量＊2/4発電設備容量＊1/4

Available energy (Low Case Scenario) and generation capacities of each regional electric power companies


KansaiChugoku

ShikokuKyushu

Okinawa

Onshore

Fixed offshore

Floating offshore

4/4 of generation capacity



Pla

nt

cap

acitie

s (1

0 M

W)

Capacity Target in 2050/Vision - 1

Additional limiting factors to “Low Case Scenario”– Wind power supply in FY2050 shall exceed 20% of total expected power demand in FY2050 (Scenario A)

– No more than 1/2 of the total capacity of power plants (50-Hz and 60-Hz systems), and no more than

1/4 for Okinawa

– In Okinawa, where available energy is abundant, no fixed or floating offshore shall be developed.

– In Hokkaido, where available energy is abundant, no floating offshore shall be developed.

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Wind power supply in 2050 shall exceed 20% of total expected power demand in FY2050 (Scenario A)

Wind power supply in 2050 shall be about 25% of total expected power demand in FY2050 (Scenario B)

Wind Power capacity share in 50Hz area＝42.9%

Wind Power capacity share in 60Hz area＝31.5%0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

容量

［万

ｋW

］

2050年風力導入目標と電力会社発電設備容量（2010年）

浮体風力

着床風力

陸上風力

発電設備容量＊4/4発電設備容量＊2/4発電設備容量＊1/4

＊：60Hz excluding Okinawa

Capacityｙ Target and generation capacities of each regional electric power companies


KansaiChugoku

ShikokuKyushu

Okinawa

Onshore

Anchored offshore

Floating offshore




Pla

nt

cap

acitie

s (1

0 M

W)

Fixed offshore

Target Capacity in 2050/Vision －２

Target Capacity

(Vision)

Measures necessary to achieve the target(restated) Power Transmission System

- Active power system management for wide areas, and construction /expansion of intra- and inter-regional transmission lines

- Introduction of power generation forecast system based on weather forecast to variable renewable energy

- Construction /expansion of power storage system (pumped hydro, batteries) and introduction of demand response system

- Retrofit of burners/mills in boiler or turbines in existing thermal power plants

Wind Farm

- Utilization of generator operation control such as suppression of max. output or adjustment of increasing output rate

- Utilization of battery energy storage system (group control system) for power fluctuation relaxing

–9

＊：WEST 60Hz excludes Okinawa

Roadmap/Vision（estimate by JWPA） - 1

Basic condition of the Vision & Tactics for The Roadmap- Wind power supplies more than 20% of Japanese electricity demand (Scenario A) by FY 2050.

- Growth curves are fitted by S-shaped serpentine curve.

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Wind power supplies about 20%of Japanese electricity demand(Scenario A) by FY2050.

Wind power supplies about 25%of Japanese electricity demand(Scenario B) by FY2050.

Power Generation is calculated by20% Capacity factor for before 2010,25% for onshore, 30% for offshore.

発電電力量

年度合計陸上着床浮体 [億kWh]

2010 248 245 3 0 43

2020 1,090 1,020 60 10 230

2030 3,620 2,660 580 380 810

2040 6,590 3,800 1,500 1,290 1,620

2050 7,500 3,800 1,900 1,800 1,880

風力発電導入実績と導入目標値［万ｋＷ］

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

累積

導入

量[万

ｋＷ

]

風力発電導入ロードマップ：ビジョン

浮体式風力

着床式風力

陸上風力

実績

Roadmap for the introduction of wind power

(Fixed) (Floating)Floating offshore

Fixed offshore

Roadmap/Vision（estimate by JWPA） - 2

Installed Capacity in each year– It is calculated using growth curve data using cubic smoothing splines （accumulated

capacity line forms S-curve）

– Peak of installed capacity will be between FY2030 and 2035 at over 30GW/year

Installed capacity includes repowering every 20 years– It is calculated in total of expected newly installed + installed capacity of 20 years ago

– After FY2030, more than 3.5GW will be added every year：stable output for manufacturing and employment

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

単年

度導

入量

[万ｋＷ

]

年度

単年度新規導入量（純増量）［万ｋＷ］

合計

陸上

洋上（着床）

洋上（浮体）

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

単年

度生

産量

[万ｋＷ

]

年度

単年度生産量（建設量）［万ｋＷ］：更新を含む

合計

陸上

洋上（着床）

洋上（浮体）

Installed capacity (net) 【10,000kW】 Installed capacity (including repowering) 【10,000kW】

FY FY

Onshore

Fixed offshore

Floating offshore

Sum

Onshore

Fixed f offshore

Floating offshore

Sum

Installation Target: JWPA and the Government (as of 2012)

National Policy Unit: Energy and Environment Council*1 METI: Committee on Basic Issues, Advisory Committee on Energy and Natural

Resources*2

Ministry of the Environment: Global Environment Committee, Central Environment Council*3

– Integrated operations using interregional connection assumed(Capacity limits of interregional connection not considered)

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*1 Energy and Environment Council (June 29, ’12) http://www.npu.go.jp/policy/policy09/pdf/20120629/shiryo1.pdf*2 Committee on Basic Issues (April 16, ’12, etc.) http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/info/committee/kihonmondai/19th/19-1.pdf*3 Global Environment Committee (March 2, ’12, etc.) http://www.env.go.jp/council/06earth/y0613-11/ref01-2.pdf

GW2020 2030 2050

Onshore Offshore Onshore Offshore Onshore Offshore

National Policy Unit

RE 35％ 11.7 0.5 39.5 8.0

RE 30％ 9.1 0.4 29.0 5.9

RE 25％ 5.5 0.03 14.7 2.9

METI

Case-1 12.0 0.6 51.4 8.6

Case-2 8.0 0.4 30.0 5.0

Case-3 5.7 0.3 12.9 2.1

Ministry of the Environment

HHV 11.0 0.5 23.7 8.8 35.0 35.0

MHV 10.7 0.4 21.7 7.1 27.0 23.0

LHV 7.5 0.03 16.2 5.1 18.0 12.0

JWPA2012 plan 10.8 0.5 21.2 7.6 25.0 25.0

2014 plan 10.2 0.7 26.6 9.6 38.0 37.0

Economic Effects (Industry and Employment) - 1

Calculated the effects of wind power on industry and employment by using inter-industry relations tables*1

– References for calculation Papers by Professor Washizu of Waseda University

– “Economic and Environmental Impact Analysis for Construction of Renewable Energy Power Plants by Extended Input-Output Table,” Science and Technology Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), MEXT (August 2013)http://www.nistep.go.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/NISTEP-DP096-FullJ.pdf

– “Development Activities for Construction of Renewable Energy Power Plants and Estimation of the Static Ripple Effect,” Waseda University Faculty of Social Sciences working paper, Satoshi Nakano and Ayu Washizu, No. 2012-3, March 2013, pp. 1-34 (Source: quoted from the above working paper and NISTEP’s DP, with detailed estimation results being provided by the authors)

Costs of constructing wind power plants in the future were estimated based on the following:– EWEA Pure Power: EC roadmap and EWEA scenario

http://www.ewea.org/fileadmin/files/library/publications/reports/Pure_Power_III.pdf– “Present Status of Wind Power Generation,” Data 3-1, 29th New-Energy Division meeting (November 2008)

http://www.meti.go.jp/committee/materials2/downloadfiles/g81125a05j.pdf Operating and maintenance (O&M) costs were estimated based on the following (assuming unit

prices will not decrease in the future):– Opinion on Procurement Prices and lead time, 2014, Procurement Price Calculation Committee (March 7,

2014) Offshore = 22.5 [JPY1,000/kW］, Onshore = 6 [JPY1,000/kW]http://www.meti.go.jp/committee/chotatsu_kakaku/pdf/report_003_01_00.pdf

Insurance costs during the project terms were estimated based on the following:– JWPA Price Study Data for Fixed-Type Offshore Wind Power Plants (November 28, 2013), etc.

Offshore = 3%/year of construction costs, Onshore = 1%/year of construction costs*1 Industries that constitute regional economies engage in production as they maintain close relationships with other industries both within and outside of their regions, thus forming an industrial structure unique to each region. One industry purchases (input) raw materials, fuels, and other goods and services from other industries to create new goods and services by processing them (through investment of labor, capital, etc.). They then sell (output) these to other industries as raw materials, etc. Such relationships form a chain among different industries, thus providing end consumers with the goods and services that they need. Detailing such inter-industry transactions, inter-industry tables capture economic activities in terms of transactions of goods and services and put the realities of economic activities in a certain region during a defined period (usually one year) in a table (matrix).

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Economic Effects (Industry and Employment) - 2

Construction: Determined by produced (constructed) capacities ina single year including replacements

O&M: Determined by accumulated installed capacities in a given year Insurance: Determined by accumulated installed capacities in a given year

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Total cost Unit 2020 2030 2050Onshore JPY B 330.0 426.0 381.0Fixed, offshore JPY B 128.0 247.0 201.0Floating, offshore JPY B 40.0 336.0 229.0Total JPY B 498.0 1,009.0 811.0

Economic ripple Unit 2020 2030 2050Onshore JPY B 604.0 780.0 697.0Fixed, offshore JPY B 224.0 433.0 354.0Floating, offshore JPY B 70.0 590.0 402.0Total JPY B 898.0 1,803.0 1,452.0

Job creation Unit 2020 2030 2050Onshore 1,000 39 50 45Fixed, offshore 1,000 15 30 24Floating, offshore 1,000 5 41 28Total 1,000 59 121 97

Direct Unit 2020 2030 2050Onshore JPY B 87.0 226.0 296.0Fixed, offshore JPY B 25.0 240.0 578.0Floating, offshore JPY B 4.0 160.0 596.0Total JPY B 116.0 626.0 1,470.0

Economic ripple Unit 2020 2030 2050Onshore JPY B 179.0 466.0 625.0Fixed, offshore JPY B 48.0 467.0 1,196.0Floating offshore JPY B 8.0 308.0 1,211.0Total JPY B 235.0 1,241.0 3,032.0

Job creation Unit 2020 2030 2050Onshore 1,000 12 31 43Fixed, offshore 1,000 3 27 75Floating, offshore 1,000 0 18 74Total 1,000 15 76 193

☆ Construction ☆ O&M, insurance

CO2 Reduction Effect (Vision) Estimated by multiplying electricity generated by wind power by the

difference between the wind power generation’s life-cycle CO2 emissions and emission factor substitute value (kg-CO2/kWh)

– Emission factor substitute value = 0.550 [kg-CO2/kWh] Ministry of the Environment: Announcement of FY 2012 emission factors, etc. for each electric

utilities operator to be used for calculation of gross greenhouse gases emissions for action plans by the central and local governments pursuant to the Act on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures (December 2013) https://www.env.go.jp/press/press.php?serial=17532

– Wind power generation life cycle CO2 emission factor = 0.025 [kg-CO2/kWh] Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry: Evaluation of life cycle CO2 emissions for

each power source (August 2010) http://criepi.denken.or.jp/research/news/pdf/den468.pdf

– Japan’s gross emissions of greenhouse gases averaged 1,278 million tons for the five years of the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period (2008-2012) (1,343 million tons in FY2012) Ministry of the Environment: Calculation of Japan’s greenhouse gas emissions (April 2014)

http://www.env.go.jp/earth/ondanka/ghg/index.html?sess=6859d4604dc5a737fcea355de0202dd2

– In FY2050, CO2 reduction by wind power generation is predicted to be 7.7% of the above average. 15

Unit 2020 2030 2050Onshore 10K t-CO2 1,116 3,002 4,369Fixed, offshore 10K t-CO2 82 799 2,621Floating, offshore 10K t-CO2 16 612 2,897Total 10K t-CO2 1,214 4,413 9,888

☆CO2 reduction

Summary

Assuming wide-area coordinated operations of electrical grids in light of recent trends (electric power system reform, intra-region transmission line establishment/expansion, offshore wind power verification projects, etc.), the target has been set to have power supply of wind being no less than 20% of the estimated power demand in FY2050 (Scenario A).

It has been confirmed that the above target is achievable (FY2050: 75 GW) Going forward, continued efforts will be necessary to resolve technological bottlenecks.

In FY2050, direct costs, including construction/O&M costs, should reach JPY2.3 trillion. Please note that the economic ripple effect is estimated at JPY4.5 trillion, with 290,000 jobs being created.

In FY2050, CO2 reduction is estimated at 99 million t-CO2This corresponds to 7.7% of the five-year average during the Kyoto Protocol’s first commitment period.

Key restrictions set when drawing up the Vision Conservative estimation: Onshore-1/2 of available energy, Fixed offshore-1/3 of

available energy, Floating offshore-1/4 of available energy

No more than 1/2 of the total capacity of power plants (50-Hz and 60-Hz systems), and no more than 1/4 for Okinawa

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Ref.: Data from Leading Wind Power Generation Countries

Wind power plant capacities and ratio to total power supply at the end of 2013

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Countries Wind Power Plantcapacities [MW]

Ratio to total power supply [%]

Denmark 4,747 33.2Portugal 4,557 27.0Spain 22,637 20.9Germany 34,468 11.7U.K. 10,946 7.7Sweden 4,474 7.0New Zealand 603 5.0The Netherlands 2,714 4.8Italy 8,448 4.7U.S.A. 61,292 4.1France 8,128 3.1Canada 7,813 3.0China 91,460 2.6Australia 3,489 2.4Japan 2,670 0.5

Source: VAVIGANT RESEARCH World Market Update 2013 (March 2014)

References: Sources and Data Theoretical capacity and potential for introduction

– Basic Study Project on Promotion of Alternative Energy Introduction for FY2010: February 2011 http://www.meti.go.jp/meti_lib/report/2011fy/E001771.pdf (METI)

– Study of Potential for Introduction of Renewable Energy for FY2009: March 2010http://www.env.go.jp/earth/report/h22-02/index.html (Ministry of the Environment)

– Study of Potential for Introduction of Renewable Energy for FY2010: March 2011http://www.env.go.jp/earth/report/h23-03/index.html (Ministry of the Environment)

– Improvement of Basic Information on Zoning for Renewable Energy for FY2011: June 2012http://www.env.go.jp/earth/report/h24-04/index.html (Ministry of the Environment)

– Project for Preparation of Wind Condition Change Data in Hokkaido (Tohoku) for FY2012: August 2013 http://www.env.go.jp/earth/report/h25-02/index.html (Ministry of the Environment)

Total capacity of electric power plants and total power demand– Power survey statistics, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy Statistics Information

http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/info/statistics/denryoku/result-2.htm

– Power statistics information, Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japanhttp://www.fepc.or.jp/library/data/tokei/index.html

– Low-Carbon Society Scenario for Japan in 2050, Ministry of the Environment Strategic R&D Project, June 2008http://2050.nies.go.jp/report/file/lcs_japan/2050_LCS_Scenario_Japanese_080715.pdf

JWPA’s mid-/long-term installation goals– Long-Term Wind Power Generation Installation Goal and Recommendations for Achievement: February

2008http://jwpa.jp/pdf/50-02teigen2008.pdf

– Long-Term Wind Power Generation Installation Goal and Roadmap V1.1: January 2010http://log.jwpa.jp/content/0000288882.html

– Theoretical Capacity and Potential of Wind Power Generation and Mid-/Long-Term Installation Goal (V2.1): June 2010http://jwpa.jp/pdf/50-24roadmapV2.1ppt.pdf

– Theoretical Capacity and Potential of Wind Power Generation and Mid-/Long-Term Installation Goal (V3.2): February 2012http://jwpa.jp/pdf/50-32roadmapV3.2.pdf

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