www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/ godae oceanview observing system evaluation task team report peter oke...
TRANSCRIPT
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/ www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
GODAE OceanView Observing system Evaluation Task Team Report
Peter OkePeter Oke11 and Gilles Larnicol and Gilles Larnicol22
1CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research; 2CLSNovember 2011
“The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds the most discoveries, is not ‘Eureka!’, but ‘That’s funny…’ ”, Isaac Asimov (1920-1992)
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
GOV OSEVal-TT organisation
Co-Chairs: Peter Oke (CSIRO)Gilles Larnicol (CLS)
Core Members: Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF)Laurent Bertino (NERSC)Gary Brassington (BoM)Jim Cummings (NRL)Yosuke Fujii (JMA/MRI)Pat Hogan (NRL)Villy Kourafalou (Univ. Miami)Daniel Lea (UKMet)Matthew Martin (UKMet)Avichal Mehra (NOAA)Pavel Sakov (NERSC)Anthony Weaver (CERFACS)
Associate members:Mike Bell (UKMet)Eric Dombrowsky (Mercator)Fabrice Hernandez (Mercator)Eric Lindstrom (NASA)Andreas Schiller (CSIRO)
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)
Routine Monitoring
of the GOOS
Routine Monitoring
of the GOOS
Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs
for short-range and seasonal forecast
systems
Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs
for short-range and seasonal forecast
systems
Design and evaluation of new
and future observation system
components
Design and evaluation of new
and future observation system
components
Provision and management of
Observation Impact Statements (OIS)
based on OSEval evidence
Provision and management of
Observation Impact Statements (OIS)
based on OSEval evidence
Cap
acit
y B
uil
din
gC
apac
ity
Bu
ild
ing
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Framework for Ocean Observing:where GODAE OceanView fits
Contributed by E. Lindstrom, OOPC Chair, NASA
GOV OSEva
l-TT
GO
DAE
O
cean
View
GO
DAE
O
cean
View
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)
Routine Monitoring
of the GOOS
Routine Monitoring
of the GOOS
Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs
for short-range and seasonal forecast
systems
Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs
for short-range and seasonal forecast
systems
Design and evaluation of new
and future observation system
components
Design and evaluation of new
and future observation system
components
Provision and management of
Observation Impact Statements (OIS)
based on OSEval evidence
Provision and management of
Observation Impact Statements (OIS)
based on OSEval evidence
Cap
acit
y B
uil
din
gC
apac
ity
Bu
ild
ing
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Capability building:GODAE and GOV OSEval Workshops
• 1st GODAE OSE/OSSE workshop (November 2007, UNESCO, Paris)
OSEval-TT established
• 2nd GOV OSEVal-TT workshop (June 2009, CLS, Toulouse) Initiation of Routine Monitoring activitiesOSEval-TT work plan (draft)
• GODAE OceanView and CLIVAR GSOP workshop on Observing System Evaluation and Inter-comparisons (June 2011, Santa Cruz, CA, USA)
Extension and expansion of NRT OSEs (3 groups plan to participate; others may participate)
Concept of “Observation Impact Statement” introduced
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)
Routine Monitoring
of the GOOS
Routine Monitoring
of the GOOS
Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs
for short-range and seasonal forecast
systems
Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs
for short-range and seasonal forecast
systems
Design and evaluation of new
and future observation system
components
Design and evaluation of new
and future observation system
components
Provision and management of
Observation Impact Statements (OIS)
based on OSEval evidence
Provision and management of
Observation Impact Statements (OIS)
based on OSEval evidence
Cap
acit
y B
uil
din
gC
apac
ity
Bu
ild
ing
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Example of an OSE (with-holding XBT)
OSEs using HYCOM after the DWH Oil spill to assess the impact of XBT data
Halliwell et al. (NRL & NOAA)
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/ Contributed by G. Halliwell, NOAA/AOML/PhOD
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Impact of P-3 Observations on Ocean Analyses
• Collaboration between AOML and NRL-Stennis– NRL ran two experiments with the 1/25° regional HYCOM:
1. Assimilate all observations
2. Deny only the P3 observations
• Critical issues affecting this evaluation:– Results depend on choices of model and DA scheme– Impact of update cycle– Impact of relative weighting of synthetic T,S profiles derived from altimetry
vs. in-situ T,S profiles
Contributed by G. Halliwell, NOAA/AOML/PhOD
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
RED: With P3 assimilation
BLACK: No P3 assimilation
Contributed by G. Halliwell, NOAA/AOML/PhOD
No assimilation ~ 4-5 degrees
No assimilation < 0.5
No assimilation +- 1 degree
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Experiment Bias (°C) RMS Diff. (°C)
Skill Score
P-3 Profiles Assimilated
-1.11 1.41 0.88
P-3 Profiles Denied
-1.18 1.79 0.84
No Data Assimilation
-0.40 4.5 0.31
Error Analysis, Nancy Foster T Profiles, 9 July
Experiment Bias (°C) RMS Diff. (m)
Skill Score
P-3 Profiles Assimilated
-21.1 35.8 0.09
P-3 Profiles Denied
-24.3 44.3 < 0
No Data Assimilation
19.3 89.5 < 0
20°C isotherm depth
Temperature, 30 – 360 m
Contributed by G. Halliwell, NOAA/AOML/PhOD
8-10 July
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Oke, P., and P. Sakov: Design and Assessment of the Australian Integrated Marine Observing System
Simple method to assess the potential impact of data from moorings
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Footprint of individual moorings
Cabbage Patch Mooring
Deep Slope Mooring
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Footprint of individual moorings
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
SA-IMOS regional moorings array
Intraseasonal SSH
Intraseasonal SSV
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Combined “footprint” for NRSs on interannual time-scales
MODEL Observations
SSH
SST
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Delayed-mode OSEs and design experiments
Many examples of research in this area at the GODAE OceanView – CLIVAR GSOP workshop
… refer to GOV-CLIVAR WS report
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)
Routine Monitoring
of the GOOS
Routine Monitoring
of the GOOS
Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs
for short-range and seasonal forecast
systems
Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs
for short-range and seasonal forecast
systems
Design and evaluation of new
and future observation system
components
Design and evaluation of new
and future observation system
components
Provision and management of
Observation Impact Statements (OIS)
based on OSEval evidence
Provision and management of
Observation Impact Statements (OIS)
based on OSEval evidence
Cap
acit
y B
uil
din
gC
apac
ity
Bu
ild
ing
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Responses to “observing system events”
Continuation of Jason-1 data processing in inter-leaved orbit (June 2009)
UKMet and BoM provided a demonstration of the impact of Jason-1 data in inter-leaved orbit during recent outages
Contributed by G. Brassington, BoM
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
NRT OSEs Routinely run parallel forecast at operational centers and
with-hold a different data each month:
Quantify the impact of each data type on forecasts Multi-system approach
Feb 2011Mar 2011Apr 2011May 2011Jun 2011Jul 2011
XBTTAOJason-2All altimsSSTArgo
Feb 2012Mar 2012Apr 2012May 2012Jun 2012Jul 2012
SSTArgoXBTTAOJason-2All altims
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
NRT OSEs Routinely run parallel forecast at operational centers and
with-hold a different data each month:
Quantify the impact of each data type on forecasts Multi-system approach
Feb 2011Mar 2011Apr 2011May 2011Jun 2011Jul 2011
XBTTAOJason-2All altimsSSTArgo
Feb 2012Apr 2012Jun 2012Aug 2012Oct 2012Dec 2013
SSTArgoXBTTAOJason-2All altims
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)
Routine Monitoring
of the GOOS
Routine Monitoring
of the GOOS
Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs
for short-range and seasonal forecast
systems
Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs
for short-range and seasonal forecast
systems
Design and evaluation of new
and future observation system
components
Design and evaluation of new
and future observation system
components
Provision and management of
Observation Impact Statements (OIS)
based on OSEval evidence
Provision and management of
Observation Impact Statements (OIS)
based on OSEval evidence
Cap
acit
y B
uil
din
gC
apac
ity
Bu
ild
ing
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Provision of Observation Impact Statements (OISs)
24
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Provision of Observation Impact Statements (OISs)
www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/
Summary
OSEval-TT Work plan completed (but living ) GODAE OceanView OSEval-TT are committed to supporting
observation agencies/teams in demonstrating the impact of observations on forecast and analysis products
Many groups are undertaking research activities Recent initiatives have motivated many developments at operational
centers :DFS, analysis sensitivity, forecast sensitivity
The OSEval-TT proposed the idea of NRT OSEs; and are promoting the idea of Observation Impact Statements (OISs) (fom C. Conlon)
Details of schedule, reporting, dissemination and engagement with GOV Patrons will be refined offline
Considering review article of OSEval achievements (expand on Oceanography special issue)
Resources for OSE / IV work ???