2012 ict outlook - the overall ict perspective
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2011 State of the Industry: Summary
Telecom Operators are struggling to find growth in their core business – voice
Bigger threats are looming – OTT platforms hit Telco core e.g. SMS revenuesData revenue growth has been robust for most markets; however data deluge has cost challengesTelecom operator margins are declining so profitable data growth is keySmartphone and Tablets shipments showing rapid growth in the year 2011 (~ 150 mn smartphones and ~ 5 million tablets)
Cloud computing continued to gain momentum in the region with > 40% growth in revenues accruing to public cloud providers
Overall unified communication growth of around 9 percent with double digit growth in conferencing, mobility, IM/presence and services
It is expected that the total IT spending would grow by around 7-8 percent in the year 2011 with IT consumerization, cloud ready architecture, analytics and social media as top of mind concernsFiber deployments in developed countries gained momentum in 2011 due to both private sector initiatives and government-driven National Broadband Networks; early LTE deployments in 2011Pure play IPTV to Smart TV gained momentum on back of massive shipments in smart TVs
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#1: Mobile Platforms hitting critical mass across smartphones and tablets
Global Trends Asia Pacific Trends
Desktop PCs
Netbook PCs
Smartphones
Tablets
2011 (e)
Desktop PCs
Netbook PCs
Smartphones
Tablets
2011 (e)
• Globally in Q4 2010, smartphone & tablet shipments exceeded desktop & PC shipments
• In the Asia Pacific region, we expect the shift to happen by end of Q4 2011/Q1 2012
~ 380mn
~ 480mn
~ 150mn ~ 155mn
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#1: Mobile Platforms hitting critical mass across smartphones and tablets
Mass market phase will aggravate the challenges for operators, vendors and enterprises alike
• Initial seeding to monetize 3G networks
• Flat rate as a demand simulation mechanism
Market SeedingUpto 2008
Device Driven growth2009-11
Mass Market Phase2011- 2015
• More mobile BB devices than fixed BB devices
• Packet data exceeded voice data on mobile networks in 2010
• Apps are the new internet
Video driving the growth of mobile date traffic
Data Traffic per user (Moore’s Law): Doubling nearly every 18 months
Smartphone is mass market
80% of internet users to have mobile internet
IT needs to support such devices
Initial creation of new business models – healthcare, automotive
Networked Society2015+
Wide penetration of devices and networks
Cross industry business models
Information ubiquity
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#2: Platform play across the ICT sector would the critical value generator
3 ecosystems are converging in the mobile computing ecosystem with diverse approaches
Mobile Cycle
1990s
Client-Server Computing
Mobile internet
2000s 2010s 2020s
Email/ Web Web 2.0
Cloud Computing
2G Based Comm
Fixed BB Growth
Customized Tablets/phones
Web OS
Apps
PC as Entertainment/Personalized
PC as Workhorse
Laptops/Netbooks Tablets
Smartphones
Digitization – Digital content overtook analog content
Web 3.0 + Aug Reality
2015
Video overtook static pages
Internet Cycle
Computing Cycle
Mobile Cloud
Graph not to scale
Collision Phase Convergence Phase
Soft SIMs
Mobile devices sold> Fixed devices
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#2: Platform play across the ICT sector would the critical value generator
By 2015 there will 2-3 platform choices for each need and 2-3 overall integrated platforms. Microsoft acquired Skype in 2011 and we can expect to see more action in the coming year.
In Asia Pacific, SKT re-organized to SKT and SK Planet to focus on platform business globally.
Communication Platforms
Entertainment Platforms
Information Platforms (monetized by ads)
Commerce Platforms
Facebook Inhouse?
Apple’s platform Google platform
??
Participation/SNS Platforms
Experience Platforms – OS + Web
Microsoft?
PayPalVisa
Skype (Acquired)
MS-Nokia? RIM (Acquired?)
Operator alliance
Twitter ?
Akamai
Android
Itunes /app store
NFC enablement
NFC enablement
Youtube Xbox/PS3Hulu ?
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#3: Real use cases in the business environment driven by enterprise social networking
Asia Pacific Enterprise Social Networking Software Market
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Total Market 5.2 11.0 20.9 34.2 62.8
Growth % 110.5% 89.3% 64.0% 83.7%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Rev
enue
Gro
wth
Rat
e (%
)
Rev
enue
s ($
Mill
ion)
Challenges with Social Collaboration Adoption
Enterprise-grade solutions for Social Collaboration emerging in the market
Market adoption to see sharp increase in 2012
CIOs wary of IT policies on information sharing, access to information across the organization & security
Lack of successful case studies & demonstrating clear ROI has been another challenge
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#4: Fixed Broadband and 3G/LTE will provide options for high speed access
Fixed Broadband 3G/LTE
212mn
343mn
2011(e) 2014(f)
466mn
1bn
2011(e) 2014(f)
• The fixed broadband market continues to grow in Asia Pacific region despite of the heavy penetration of 3G/LTE.
• MBB through dongles will touch 41mn in 2011 and reach around 100mn by 2014
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#4: Fixed Broadband and 3G/LTE will provide options for high speed access
KEY CHALLENGES:
Limited Device Range Lack of Subscriber Adoption Spectrum QoS/Indoor Coverage
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
2012
2012
2012
20142014
2014
2014
2012
2012
Lot more LTE deployments expected in 2012 and 2013
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#5: “Internet of Things” will further accelerate as more and more devices, equipment and gadgets get connected creating opportunities for value creation and new business models
The Home Network Mobility on steroids Internet of things
• 8-10 Devices per home• Universal Remote
6 bn
• 5-6 Devices per individual • Touch as the default input
mechanism
30 bn
• 500 per sq km • Smart cities
44 bn
‘S’ City Planning
‘S’ Energy
‘S’ Business
‘S’ Mobility
‘S’ Citizen
‘S’ Buildings
• Rapid commercialization of enabling technologies• Demand for such services in select sectors driven by productivity requirements• Emergence of early business models to monetize the opportunity
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#6: Big Data and Analytics will see reaching the chasm in 2012 and get deployed through variety of platforms and be enabled by emerging technologies
Big Data
Data is expected to increase dramatically over the next decade; Data from machine communication and IOT is expected to exceed social media in the next half decade
Growth Areas @ Analytics Queries, Reporting, analytics, Advance analytics, CRM analytics, Data warehouse generation Organization financial /
strategy analytics In-line and predictive analytics Move more towards cloud
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#7: Cloud computing is set to become mainstream in Asia Pacific region. Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) is set to be the new battleground in the cloud computing industryHybrid clouds lead the way; Cloud adoption growing at a rapid pace
APEJ Cloud Computing is market expected to grow at 39% for the 2010-
2015 period.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1,124
1,575
2,224
3,132
4,284
5,807
US
$ m
illio
ns
CAGR: 39%
71%
10%
3%
16%
29%
Not adopted yet Public cloud Private cloud Hybrid cloud
NoteSurvey done with IT Managers and CIOs in Australia, Hong Kong, China, India, Singapore and Malaysia in Q2 2011. 64% with >500 employees and 36% with 200 to 499 employees.
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#7: Cloud computing is set to become mainstream in Asia Pacific region. Platform-as-a-service (PaaS) is set to be the new battleground in the cloud computing industry
Source: Frost & Sullivan
SaaS
Current View (2010)
PaaS
IaaS
Yr1 Yr7
Device Presentation
Interim View (2011-12)
Application Management
Tenancy Managers
Platform
Brokers/Aggregators
Synchronization
Hosters/Infrastructure
End game
2-3 end to end cloud
players
Preferred partnerships of SPs
with software ( retail
model)
Software Reseller
Software Reseller
The cloud value chain will disintegrate and consolidate later
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#8: Telco transformation will evolve as more and more telcos come under revenue growth pressure even across the emerging markets
Telecom Transformation
Services/Business Transformation
Network Transformation
Customer Mgmt Transformation
• Enterprise ICT Services
• Cloud • Data Centers • Mgd services • Unified comms
• Appifying Services
• Devices
• Segmentation of mobile broadband
• Demand and pricing management
• Migration to LTE
• Backhaul optimization
• IP Migration
• Faster rollout of services
• Customer centricity
• Automation/ IT Factory
Protect/ New Revenues Reduce cost per bit Increase agility
OrganizationalTransformation
Be ready
• Process re-engineering
• Knowledge acquisition
• Metric definition
Telecom operators need to look at revenue growth and profitability growth
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Mi-fi devices at the consumer end
• MiFi devices can make any device network-agnostic allowing GSM, CDMA and WiMAX carriers to offer any Wi-Fi enabled device.
• Offloading data traffic will ease strain on existing 3G networks.
Small Cells– rapid scaling of sites
• Light Radio pioneered by ALU, HP and Freescale shows how SDR, VLSI and smart power management will change the scale and scope of BTS
• Antenna collapsed into the cell – the cube can be as small as 10 cms
Femtos
• USB drive form factor for femtos
• Femtos can be added to other devices like gateways
#8: Telco transformation will evolve as more and more telcos come under revenue growth pressure even across the emerging markets Metamorphosis of networks – Small is Big
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#9: Enterprise communications would become richer, more collaborative and increasingly move towards the cloud
RichCommunications- Pervasive video
- Context & presence aware
CollaborativeCommunications
- Conferencing- ESN
Cloud- Native and new
Increasing Globalization
Consumerization of IT
Improving Infrastructure
Declining Telecom Costs
Shift from Capex to Opex
Generation Y workforce
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#10: ICT as an enabler will continue to gain momentum as telcos, SIs, ISVs etc. move beyond pure ICT industry to drive growth, value and margins in the future.
SMART LIVING
*****
SMART PUBLIC SPACE
Solar PV Cells
Virtual Shopping
Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR)
Morphing
From 2D to 3D HDTV
Urban Planning
Consumer Electronics Energy
Retail
AutomotiveHealthcare
Electric Vehicles
Biotechnology
Financial Services
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#10: ICT as an enabler will continue to gain momentum as telcos, SIs, ISVs etc. move beyond pure ICT industry to drive growth, value and margins in the future.
Co-Create Co-Market Co-Deliver Co-Exist
Web 2.0 philosophy
Consumers to Prosumers
With new partners in the eco-system
Add to the value of the other creators
Re-jig marketing channels with focus on digital channels
Lend and borrow “brand equity”
Use partners across the value chain
Define your delivery differentiator
Borrow and add to the co-creator’s differentiator
Define roles and responsibilities based on actual competences
Define SLAs
Accept real and sustainable revenue sharing approaches
Focus on real-time and automation
Leverage the co-existence of technology to deliver convergence
The following 4Cs are the key pillars/conditions to build a Enabler play edifice
1. Increasing commoditization2. Disruptive Innovation not led by traditional ICT players3. Competencies can stretch at best to adjacent markets
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For Additional Information
Donna JeremiahCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+603 6204 [email protected]
Carrie LowCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+603 6204 [email protected]
Jessie LohCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+65 6890 [email protected]