2ac politics updates- wake forest

8/10/2019 2AC Politics Updates- Wake Forest

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Politics Updates- Wake


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2AC- ANSWERS TO POLITICS


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GENERICS

The DISAD is non-unique- Authorization for military action in Syria will useup all of Obamas political capital

Brown & Sherman, 9/4/14, Carrie Budoff Brown & Jake Sherman, President Obamas political capital spreadsthin, Politico, http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/obamas-political-capital-spreads-thin-96306.html

President Barack Obama faced a heavy lift in Congress this fall when his agenda included

only budget issues and immigration reform. Now with Syria in the mix, the president

appears ready to spend a lot of the political capital that he would have kept in reserve for

his domestic priorities. A resolution authorizing the use of force in Syria wont make it

through the House or the Senate without significant cajoling from the White House. That

means Obama, who struggles to get Congress to follow his lead on almost everything, could

burn his limited leverage convincing Democrats and Republicans to vote for an unpopular

military operationthat even the president says he could carry out with or without their approval.The only effect is and I dont

mean this to be dismissive in any wayit will be taking up some time and there be some degree of political capital

expended by all, said Sen. Bob Corker(R-Tenn.), the Foreign Relations Committee ranking

member who helped draft the Senate resolution. At the end of the day, its a tough vote

for anybody because the issue is trying to draft an authorization knowing that theyre

going to implement it.

AND Obamas admission that he has no plan on ISIS left him exposed and

weak

Economic Times, 9/4/14, Barack Obamas daunting bid to build an anti-ISIS front,http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/barack-obamas-daunting-bid-to-build-an-anti-is-front/articleshow/41673074.cms

But with Iraq splintered, there is no guarantee prime minister designate Haidar al-Abadi, will prove any more embracing of other sects than

Maliki. Obama has his own questions to answer. Building such an intricate coalition requires

the kind of commitment and diplomatic dexterity in the Middle East that an administration

pre-occupied with ending foreign wars and rebalancing to Asia has rarely demonstrated.

Obama's energy and political capital is meanwhile fraying by the hour, as opponents mock

his admission that he does not yet have a strategy to confront IS in Syria.

AND the Ukraine crisis also means that Obamas political authority couldchange from minute to minute-this subsumes the link

Mead, 14, Walter Russell, Putin invades Crimea: Obama hardest hit? The American Interest, http://www.the -american-interest.com/wrm/2014/03/03/putin-invades-crimea-obama-hardest-hit/

While the outcome of crises like this one [in Ukraine] are impossible to predict and the President

could still conceivably turn things around, President Obamas personal prestige and political authority are

balanced on a knife edge. Like JFK after the Bay of Pigs, like Lyndon Johnson after the


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Tet offensive, like Harry Truman after North Korea attacked the South, like Dwight

Eisenhower when the Soviets rolled into Hungary and Ike stood helplessly by, like Ronald Reagan

when Iran-Contra blew up in his face, at the momentPresident Obama has what appears to be a

big, fat, ugly, icky and stinky foreign policy fiasco on his hands. Now as this list shows, foreign

policy flops arent all that rare; every American president since FDR has had at least one

big one. Foreign policy is much, much harder than it looks and only the luckiest of presidents can hope to make it to the finish line without anembarrassing fiasco or two. President Obama is in good company today, and almost every American president must

sooner or later learn to cope with these meltdowns.It goes with the job.

AND Obamas best bet for passing legislation is to stay outside the debate

Economist 14, Clowns to the left, jokers to the right, The Economist,http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/01/barack-obama

Over the past three years, America's political system has descended into all-out partisan

warfare. Democrats want a general in that fight; they are increasingly dissatisfied that

their leader has to spend his rhetorical energy playing the role of the UN envoy calling on

all sides to exercise restraint.Sincethe day after his re-election,pundits have been calling on Mr Obamato act more like LBJ: take strong ideological positions, propose major legislation, twist

arms off and beat people's heads in with them(in Senator Russell's immortal words), and so forth. (OurLexingtonargued that case a few months back.) Earlier this monthIsaac Chotinerbemoaned the president's habit of forever presenting both sides of everyargument, accusing him of "talk[ing] to us like we're children": "It's as if the reader can't be trusted to just hear one side from the president,

because that might (heaven forbid) make him or her think Obama hasn't considered every angle." I find this argument unpersuasive. Ed Luce

made the key point a year and a half ago: LBJ had liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats to

work with, whose decision about whether to vote with or against the president on different

bills could be influenced by a variety of political considerations. Those legislative cross-

loyalties don't exist anymore. Neither do earmarks, the budget goodies targeted to

individual districts that were once a widespread currency of congressional dealmaking

(something welamented here). The parties today are ideologically sorted, and there is almost nothing Mr Obama can do

to convince or compel Republicans to vote with him. Republicans are able to halt thepresident's agenda in its tracks, and they have every reason to do so. There simply isn't any

reason to believe that more aggressive legislative arm-twisting would have generated more

success for Mr Obama; it seems entirely possible that if he had aggressively tried to dictate the terms of health-care reform

legislation rather than allowing various senators to rewrite (and weaken) the bill, he might have lost even that signature achievement. Last

year, Mr Obama decided to throw his entire weight behind gun-control legislation, taking

on just the sort of ambitious and improbable crusade Mr Ignatius had advised him to

attempt. The resultwas that he lost,squandered political capital, and mired his party in

the mud. The fact is that, as unsatisfying as it may be for his partisans, Mr Obama's above-

the-fray stance is his best political play. It taps into his natural character strengths and practiced rhetorical gestures. Itsafeguards him from being side-lined as a marginal, extremist figure by the media and commentariatalways a danger for black politicians whoembrace strong ideological agendas. It allows him to take up themes like inequality and help bring them into the mainstream once they have been

advanced by more ideological players.

AND Obama has never really used political capital to advance his agenda

Mitchell, 14, Jim, Editorial Writer, Obamas lame duck season may start tomorrow, Dallas Morning News,http://dallasmorningviewsblog.dallasnews.com/2014/01/obamas-lame-duck-season-may-open-tomorrow.html/

There was a time when a State of the Union address melded promises with reality. For many reasons, President Barack Obamas l ast two

addresses have failed to do so. Part of the problem is a GOP-led House; The other part is the president himself. The presidents style

isnt consistent with policy-making in a tough environment. Hes prone to saying things
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/01/barack-obamahttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/president-obama-go-big/2012/11/07/dbf545f8-28fc-11e2-bab2-eda299503684_story.htmlhttp://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21586830-what-current-fascination-lyndon-johnson-says-about-barack-obamas-america-hey-heyhttp://www.newrepublic.com/article/116277/president-obama-talks-us-were-childrenhttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4335a252-bbbc-11e1-9436-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2rud4Rnwihttp://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/01/chris-christies-punitive-bipartisanshiphttp://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2013/12/newtown-massacrehttp://dallasmorningviewsblog.dallasnews.com/2014/01/obamas-lame-duck-season-may-open-tomorrow.html/http://dallasmorningviewsblog.dallasnews.com/2014/01/obamas-lame-duck-season-may-open-tomorrow.html/http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2013/12/newtown-massacrehttp://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/01/chris-christies-punitive-bipartisanshiphttp://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4335a252-bbbc-11e1-9436-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2rud4Rnwihttp://www.newrepublic.com/article/116277/president-obama-talks-us-were-childrenhttp://www.economist.com/news/united-states/21586830-what-current-fascination-lyndon-johnson-says-about-barack-obamas-america-hey-heyhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/president-obama-go-big/2012/11/07/dbf545f8-28fc-11e2-bab2-eda299503684_story.htmlhttp://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2014/01/barack-obama


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like bring me a bill I can sign. Thats another way of staying too far above the fray. It tosses the

entire leadership responsibility back onto Congress a punt that makes him appear weak, not only to GOP House

members, but also to Democrats in the Senate and those on the Far Left, who insist that he hasnt done enough. It would be ok for

him to seek a Third Wayif he were willing to arm-twist his party as much as he

criticizes the other party, in essence burning his political capital for a higher goal. But for

the most, hes allowed House Republicans and Senate Democrats to appeal to their bases,and on the Senate side, utilized Harry Reid as his pocket veto. I anticipate that hell use [the State of

the Union]to talk about income inequality and threaten to use executive orders to circumvent Congressional gridlock. A best, those are

signals to people listening at home, who either will love him or hate him for it. However, it wont carry much weight with

lawmakersand will open the executive orders to Constitutional challenges, real or contrived. In an email to supporters over the weekend,senior White House adviser Dan Pfeiffer indicated that the president will lay out a set of real, concrete, practical proposa ls to grow the economy,strengthen the middle class, and empower all who hope to join it. President Obama has a pen and he has a phone, and he will use them to takeexecutive action and enlist every Americanbusiness owners and workers, mayors and state legislators, young people, veterans, and folks incommunities from across the countryin the project to restore opportunity for all. It will be an optimistic speech. Thanks to the grit anddetermination of citizens like you, America has a hard-earned right to that optimism. This deep into his second term and were still talkin g about

broad principles of governing? Also this sounds a lot like the message of the past two State of the Union speeches. Presidencies have

an expiration date, a point beyond which anything a president says becomes background

noise. It is usually about this time.As much as I do not like to admit it, gun safety, climate change, immigration policy and

tax reform have become examples of sounds and fury. If we hear more of the same on Tuesday, it will officially mark the start of lameduck status.

AND There is no room for deal-making in the current SenateTodd, et al, 13, Chuck, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Jessica Taylor, First Thoughts: Welcome to BizzaroWashington,First Read: NBC News, http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/12/13/21890141-first-thoughts-welcome-to-bizarro-washington?lite

We have one additional point to make about the U.S. Senate: The institution is a mess right now. In the summer,

you had a band of Republicans-- McCain, Graham, Corker, Ayotte -- cutting deals to end some of the

gridlock to prove the institution could work.But that is over. Its worth remembering that more than

two-thirds of current senators were elected after 2000, when the political polarization in

Washington truly began with the Florida recount.The Ted Kennedys, Dick Lugars, Robert Byrds are all gone. And

thats a big reason for the current dysfunction in the greatest deliberative body in the

world. These new senators were all elected in this polarized climate, they all succeeded

during this age of political warfare, and therefore they only know that one way to win

politicallyand that translates into the style of legislating and governing weve now all grown accus tomed to. The leadership on

both sides seems more intent on making points than keeping the tradition of the Senate beingthe small g governor of Washington.

AND Obama has no leverage in current Congress because divide is

Republican vs. RepublicanFallows, 13, James, Your False-Equivalence Guide to the Days Ahead, The Atlantic,http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/09/your-false-equivalence-guide-to-the-days-ahead/280062/

As a matter of politics, this is different from anything we learned about in classrooms or

expected until the past few years. We're used to thinking that the most important

disagreements are between the major parties, not within one party; and that disagreements

over policies, goals, tactics can be addressed by negotiation or compromise. This time, the

fight that matters is within the Republican party, and that fight is over whether

compromise itself is legitimate.** Outsiders to this struggle -- the president and his


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administration, Democratic legislators as a group, voters or "opinion leaders" outside the

generally safe districts that elected the new House majority -- have essentially no leverage

over the outcome.I can't recall any situation like this in my own experience, and the only even-approximate historic parallel (with

obvious differences) is the inability of Northern/free-state opinion to affect the debate within the slave-state South from the 1840s onward. Nor

is there a conceivable "compromise" the Democrats could offer that would placate the

other side.

AND TURN- Obama's legislative success rate actually goes up when he

focuses on multiple policy issues at onceTodd, et. al, 13, Chuck, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Brooke Brower, "First Thoughts: Flooding the Zone,"

NBC News, http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/05/16852487-first-thoughts-flooding-the-zone?lite

Flooding the zone: Exactly one week away from President Obamas State of the Union address, the White House has spent the

early days of the second term flooding the zone with its legislative agenda.Last week, the presidentdelivered his big immigration speech in Las Vegas. Yesterday, he spoke about gun violence in Minnesota. Today, hes meeting at the White

House with progressive, labor, and business leaders to discuss immigration reform and the budget situation. Whats going on here:TheObama White House wants to overload Washingtons political circuits in an effort to see

what it can get through Congress -- without letting Congress define what issues getaddressed. After all, Republicans want to solely talk about the budgetbefore the March budget showdown(see yesterdays multiple coordinated responses by House Republicans on the White Houses announcement it would be late with its budget). Yet by flooding the zone, Team Obama -- with the bully pulpit and the State of the Union

at its disposal -- wants to widen the political dialogue beyond that one issue. This flooding

the zone concept is how the Obama White House operated in the first six months of the

first term, and its where he got most of his legislative achievements. When the White

House got bogged down on ONE issue (health care, debt ceiling, etc), officials determined

they lost some of their political capital.

AND the Disad is Non-Unique- as a lame duck, Obamas political capital is

already too lowDouthat, 13, Ross, Obama and the Doomsayers, New York Times, http://douthat.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/09/obama-and-the-doomsayers/?_r=1&

Obamas struggles haveinspired comparisons to George W. Bushs second term,and invocationsof Hurricane Katrina and Iraq. But of course all kinds of consequential choices were made in the Bush White House after his approval ratingreached the flirting-with-dismal level where Obamas numbers are todaywith the Alito confirmation, the Iraqi surge, and TARP probably

looming largest, and lesser examples abounding as well. But contra MacGillis, I think most of the writers making the

Obama-Bush comparisonsunderstand that point, and they wouldpresumably say, okay, yes, Bush retained the powers of

the presidency, but somewhere between the failure of Social Security reform and the 2006 thumping he passed over a crucial

threshold where 1) he no longer had a hope in Hades of moving big-ticket legislation

through Congress and 2) he no longer had a plausible path to recovering the publics

trust.Thats what Washington scribes tend to mean when they apply the shorthand term finished to a presidency, and it seemsperfectly reasonable to look at a chief executive in Obamas positionhis second-term

numbersmirroring Bush rather than Reagan or Clinton,his base eroding,his partys odds

of losing the Senate rising, his defenders beginningto talk about long-term policy

vindication more than short-term political successand ask whether hes reached that

point as well.
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/05/16852487-first-thoughts-flooding-the-zone?litehttp://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/05/16852487-first-thoughts-flooding-the-zone?litehttp://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/15/us/politics/parallels-to-bush-in-toxic-political-mix-threatening-obama.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/15/us/politics/parallels-to-bush-in-toxic-political-mix-threatening-obama.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/15/us/politics/parallels-to-bush-in-toxic-political-mix-threatening-obama.html?_r=0http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/15/us/politics/parallels-to-bush-in-toxic-political-mix-threatening-obama.html?_r=0http://www.people-press.org/2013/11/08/obamas-second-term-slide-continues-2/11-8-2013_1/http://www.gallup.com/poll/166139/obama-approval-down-among-hispanics-past-year.aspxhttp://www.gallup.com/poll/166139/obama-approval-down-among-hispanics-past-year.aspxhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/02/wonkbook-healthcare-gov-will-work-that-means-obamacare-can-work-too/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/02/wonkbook-healthcare-gov-will-work-that-means-obamacare-can-work-too/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/02/wonkbook-healthcare-gov-will-work-that-means-obamacare-can-work-too/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/02/wonkbook-healthcare-gov-will-work-that-means-obamacare-can-work-too/http://www.gallup.com/poll/166139/obama-approval-down-among-hispanics-past-year.aspxhttp://www.people-press.org/2013/11/08/obamas-second-term-slide-continues-2/11-8-2013_1/http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/15/us/politics/parallels-to-bush-in-toxic-political-mix-threatening-obama.html?_r=0http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/02/05/16852487-first-thoughts-flooding-the-zone?lite


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Link Turn- Winners Win

Give their political capital arguments no weight- there is no way to predict

how one policy will impact another, except to say that winners winHirsch, 2/7/13, Michael, Theres no such thing as political capital, National Journal,http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207

But the abrupt emergence of the immigration and gun-control issues illustrates how suddenly shifts in mood can occur and how political interests

can align in new ways just as suddenly. Indeed , the pseudo-concept of political capital masks a larger truth

about Washington that is kindergarten simple: You just dont know what you can do until

you try. Or as Ornstein himself oncewrote years ago, Winning wins.In theory, and in practice, dependingon Obamas handling of any particular issue, even in a polarized time, he could still deliver on a lot of his second -term goals, depending on his

skill and the breaks.Unforeseen catalysts can appear, like Newtown. Epiphanies can dawn, such aswhen many Republican Party leaders suddenly woke up in panic to the huge disparity in

the Hispanic vote. Some political scientists who study the elusive calculus of how to passlegislation and run successful presidencies say that political capital is, at best, an empty

concept, and that almost nothing in the academic literature successfully quantifies or even

defines it. It can refer to a very abstract thing, like a presidents popularity, but theres no mechanism there. Thatmakes it kind of useless, says Richard Bensel, a government professor at Cornell University. Even Ornstein concedes that thecalculus is far more complex than the term suggests. Winning on one issue often changes the calculation for the next issue; there is never anyknown amount of capital. The idea here is, if an issue comes up where the conventional wisdom is that president is not going to get what hewants, and he gets it, then each time that happens, it changes the calculus of the other actors Ornstein says. If they think hes going to win, theymay change positions to get on the winning side. Its a bandwagon effect.

Winners win- passing plan boosts Obamas status

Toobin, 6/5/12, Jeffrey Toobin, The Real Stakes in the Health Care Case: A Guide, New Yorker, June 5, 2012.http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/comment/2012/06/the-real-stakes-in-the-health-care-case-a-guide.html

Its been said that Obama might somehow be better off politically if the Court were to

strike down the unpopular parts ofthelaw(or even all of it). According to this reasoning, he could then avoid theproblem of defending the law on the campaign trail and concentrate instead on issues on which the Democratic view is more popular. This isnonsense. In the first place, in politics and the rest of life, its always better to win than lose.

Winners win, and losers lose. Moreover, the invalidation ofsucha central achievement of hisAdministration would taint Obamas Presidency forever.To casual followers of politics (and the SupremeCourt), which is to say most people, it would look like Obama overreached in the way that the stereotype suggests that liberals often do inexpanding the size of government. In the event of a loss, Obama would blame the Court, perhaps for good reason, but for better or worse theJustices will have the last word. In the famous words ofJustice Robert Jackson, We are not final because we are infallible, but we are infallibleonly because we are final.

Winners winlegislative victories build momentum

Hirsh 13chief correspondent of National Journal (Michael, Theres No Such Thing as Political Capital ,http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207, 2/7/2013)

In terms of Obamas second-term agenda, what all these shifting tides of momentum and political calculation mean is this: Anything goes.

Obama has no more elections to win, and he needs to worry only about the support he will have in the House and Senate

after 2014. But if he picks issues that the countrys mood will supportsuch as, perhaps, immigration reform and

gun controlthere is no reason to think he cant win far more victories than any of the careful
http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/comment/2012/06/the-real-stakes-in-the-health-care-case-a-guide.htmlhttp://www.amphilsoc.org/sites/default/files/480104.pdfhttp://www.amphilsoc.org/sites/default/files/480104.pdfhttp://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207http://www.amphilsoc.org/sites/default/files/480104.pdfhttp://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/comment/2012/06/the-real-stakes-in-the-health-care-case-a-guide.htmlhttp://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207


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calculators of political capital now believe is possible , including battles over tax reform and deficit reduction. Amidtodays atmosphere of Republican self-doubt, a new, more mature Obama seems to be emerging, one who has his agenda clearly in mind and will

ride the mood of the country more adroitly. If he can get some early winsas he already has, apparently, on the fiscal cliff and

the upper-income tax increasethat will create momentum, and one win may well lead to others.

Winning wins.

Winners WinMarshall & Prins, Poli Sci Profs, 11(September 2011, Bryan W. Marshall --- associate professor of politicalscience at Miami University, Brandon C. Prins --- associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee,Knoxville, Presidential Studies Quarterly, Power or Posturing? Policy Availability and Congressional Influence on U.S.Presidential Decisions to Use Force, online, CMR)

Presidents rely heavily on Congress in converting their political capital into real

policy success. Policy success not only shapes the reelection prospects of presidents,

but it also builds the presidentsreputation for political effectiveness and fuels the

prospect for subsequent gains in political capital (Light 1982). Moreover, the presidents legislativesuccess in foreign policy is correlated with success on the domestic front. On this point, some have largely disavowed the two-

presidencies distinction while others have even argued that foreign policy has become a mere extension of domestic policy (Fleisher

et al. 2000; Oldfield and Wildavsky 1989) Presidents implicitly understand that there exists a

linkage between their actions in one policy area and their ability to affect another .The use of force is no exception; in promoting and protecting U.S. interests abroad, presidential decisions are made with an eyetoward managing political capital at home (Fordham 2002).


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No Link- PC Doesnt Work

TURN- Spending political capital is counterproductive to legislative successesDrum 3/12. [Kevin, political blogger, Presidents and the Bully Pulpit Mother Jones http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/03/presidents-and-bully-pulpit]

Do presidents really have the power to persuade? Citing the work of political scientists George Edward and Frances

Lee, Ezra Klein writes in the New Yorker this week that they dont. Not much, anyway. When presidents talk, he

argues,all they really do is polarize: instead of persuading, they simply make partisan divides

even starker.So if you didnt have much of an opinion about contraceptive coverage a month ago, you probably do now and thanks toPresident Obamas intervention, youre now for it if youre a Democrat and against it if youre a Republican:Edwardss worksuggests that Presidential persuasion isnt effective with the public. Lees work suggests

that Presidential persuasion might actually have an anti-persuasive effect on the opposing

party in Congress. And, because our system of government usually requires at least somemembers of the opposition to work with the President if anything is to get done, that

suggests that the Presidents attempts at persuasion might have the perverse effect of

making it harder for him to govern.

AND Obama wont use political capital anyway-he doesnt think it is real

Lewis, 12,Michael, October 2012,Best-selling author of The Blind Side and Moneyball Lewis has served as an editor andcolumnist at the British weekly The Spectatorand as a senior editor and campaign correspondent at The New Republic. ObamasWay, Vanity Fair,http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/10/michael-lewis-profile-barack-obama

You may think that the presidency is essentially a public-relations job. Relations with the public are indeed important, maybe now more than

ever, as public opinion is the only tool he has for pressuring an intractable opposition to agree on anything. He admits that he has been guilty, attimes, of misreading the public. [Obama] badly underestimated, for instance,how little it would costRepublicans politically to oppose ideas they had once advocated, merely because Obama

supported them. He thought the other side would pay a bigger price for inflicting damage

on the country for the sake of defeating a president. But the idea that he might somehow

frighten Congress into doing what he wanted was, to him, clearly absurd. All of these

forces have created an environment in which the incentives for politicians to cooperate

dont function the way they used to, he said. L.B.J. operated in an environment in which

if he got a couple of committee chairmen to agree he had a deal. Those chairmen didnt

have to worry about a Tea Party challenge. About cable news.That model has progressively shifted for eachpresident.

AND empirics prove political capital doesnt overcome politics, even in strongeconomy

Beckman and Kumar 11Matthew Beckmann and Vimal Kumar 11, Associate Professor of Political Science at UC Irvine, econ prof at the Indian Institute of Tech,Opportunism in Polarization, Presidential Studies Quarterly; Sep 2011; 41, 3

The final important piece in our theoretical modelpresidents political capitalalso finds support in these analyses, though the results here are

less reliable.Presidents operating under the specter of strong economy and high approval
http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/03/presidents-and-bully-pulpithttp://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/03/presidents-and-bully-pulpithttp://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/10/michael-lewis-profile-barack-obamahttp://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/10/michael-lewis-profile-barack-obamahttp://www.vanityfair.com/politics/2012/10/michael-lewis-profile-barack-obamahttp://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/03/presidents-and-bully-pulpithttp://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/03/presidents-and-bully-pulpit


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ratings get an important, albeit moderate, increase in their chances for prevailing on key Senate

roll-call votes(b = .10, se = .06, p < .10). Figure 4 displays the substantive implications of these results in the context of polarization,showing thatgoing from the lower third of political capital to the upper third increasespresidents chances for success by 8 percentage points(in a setting like 2008).Thus, politicalcapitals impact does provide an important boost to presidents success on Capitol Hill, but

it is certainly not potent enough to overcome basic congressional realities. Political capitalis just strong enough to put a presidential thumb on the congressional scales, which often

will not matter, but can in close cases.


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Boehner has long played footsie with Democrats over passing a comprehensive bill. Last

November, Boehnertold reporters that immigration reform absolutely wasnt dead. But

in February, after the right wing freaked out over immigration principlesthat the House GOP

leadership released, Boehner pulled back and announced that no reform was possible, because Obama was

untrustworthy. Just like that, immigration reform was dead. But couldnt this time be different? It seems highly

unlikely, for four reasons: 1. Ted Cruzs Presidential Ambitions. As the Republicanprimaries heat up, immigration reform will be one of the top issues. And the Texas

freshman is almost certain to take a hard line positionto win over the GOP base that votes in primaries. In doingso, hes going to pull his entire party to the right, leaving even less space to compromise with Democrats. As the Washington Posts Greg Sargent

has written, this might be thenightmare scenario for the Republican Party. 2. Marco Rubios RecentBacktracking.

Rubio infuriated the base when he brokered the Senate immigration bill in 2013 that

included a pathway to citizenship. Ever since, hes been trying make amends. Just a few days ago,

Rubiosaid that if the Senate bill came up under todays political atmospherewhen, according to

Republicans, distrust of Obama is at an all-time highhe would vote against it. 3. TheRight Wings Victory

over the House GOP Border Bill.Just before the August recess, the House stayed in session an extra dayafter the House leadership was unable to pass their preferred legislation to address the border crisis. Faced with a revolt from his right,

Boehner made the bill even more conservative and allowed a vote on a bill to undo Obamas 2010 executive

action on immigration. In other words, the House GOP is moving further to the right onimmigration, not towards the center. 4. Eric Cantors Primary Defeat. Its certainly true that EricCantor, the former House Majority Leader, did not lose his primary to Dave Brat solely, because of immigration reform. There were many other

reasons,including Cantors friendliness with Wall Street and his broken promises to conservatives. But many Republicans will

take his defeat as a sign not to compromise on immigration reform in any way. That

message will not disappear next year .

AND Obama has already cashed in whatever chips he is willing to play on

immigration reform

Drum, 14, 3/4/14Kevin, Immigration reform is dead because of Bizzaro Obama, Mother Jones,http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2014/03/immigration-reform-dead-because-bizarro-obama

To a very real extent, Obama has already done what hes supposed to do: hes helped create an

environment conducive to success. The president and his team have cultivated public

demand for immigration reform and helped assemble a broad coalitionbusiness leaders, labor,immigrant advocates, the faith communityto work towards a common goal. But thats apparently not what Boehner is talking about. Rather,

according to the Speaker, immigration reform cant pass because House Republicans

dont trust the president to faithfully execute the laws of the United States. Whats

Obama supposed to do about this?I told the president Ill leave that to him, Boehner told the Enquirer. I think that

translates as "nothing is going to happen."Boehner's excuse, however, isn't that tea party Republicans are obsessed

about amnesty and fences and reconquista and all that. His excuse is that Obama has been so brazenly lawless that

Republicans simply can't trust him to enforce whatever law they pass.This is all part of the

surreal "Obama the tyrant" schtick that's swamped the Republican Party lately. Every executiveorder, every new agency interpretation of a rule, every Justice Department or IRS memothey're all evidence that Obama is turning Americainto a New World gulag. Never mind that these are all routine things that every president engages in. Never mind that they just as routinely getresolved in court and Obama will win some and lose some. Never mind any of that. Obama is an Alinskyite despot who is slowly but steadily

sweeping away the last vestiges of democracy in this once great nation. Barack Obama! A president whose biggest problem

is probably just the opposite: he's never managed to get comfortable throwing his weight

around to get what he wants. He's too dedicated to rational discourse and the grand

bargain. He hires guys who want to nudge, not mandate. He wants to persuade, not coerce. That's our modern-day Robespierre.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/21/john-boehner-immigration-reform_n_4317511.htmlhttp://blogs.rollcall.com/218/boehner-releases-immigration-principles/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/01/31/the-nightmare-scenario-for-republicans-on-immigration/http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/216311-rubios-new-tune-on-immigrationhttp://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/216311-rubios-new-tune-on-immigrationhttp://hotair.com/archives/2014/08/28/rubio-if-i-had-to-vote-again-on-my-gang-of-eight-immigration-bill-id-vote-no/http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/08/05/Conservatives-Cite-Grassroots-Pressure-In-Immigration-Victoryhttp://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/08/05/Conservatives-Cite-Grassroots-Pressure-In-Immigration-Victoryhttp://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/08/05/Conservatives-Cite-Grassroots-Pressure-In-Immigration-Victoryhttp://www.redstate.com/2014/06/10/why-eric-cantor-lost/http://www.redstate.com/2014/06/10/why-eric-cantor-lost/http://www.redstate.com/2014/06/10/why-eric-cantor-lost/http://www.redstate.com/2014/06/10/why-eric-cantor-lost/http://www.redstate.com/2014/06/10/why-eric-cantor-lost/http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/08/05/Conservatives-Cite-Grassroots-Pressure-In-Immigration-Victoryhttp://hotair.com/archives/2014/08/28/rubio-if-i-had-to-vote-again-on-my-gang-of-eight-immigration-bill-id-vote-no/http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/216311-rubios-new-tune-on-immigrationhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/01/31/the-nightmare-scenario-for-republicans-on-immigration/http://blogs.rollcall.com/218/boehner-releases-immigration-principles/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/21/john-boehner-immigration-reform_n_4317511.html


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AND Immigration reform wont pass- GOP votes are not there

Malone, 2/13/14, Jim, Republicans hesitate on immigration reform, Voice of America,http://www.voanews.com/content/republicans-hesitate-on-immigration-reform/1850820.html

Earlier this year the prospects for immigration reform seemed bright . Republican congressional leaders,especially House Speaker John Boehner, shifted their tone and indicated a willingness to find common ground with President Barack Obama and

Democrats on legalizing the status of millions who had entered the country unlawfully. But the backlash was swift. When it

came time to float the idea to the conservative Republican conference in the House of

Representatives, the air was squeezed out of the balloon quicker than a giggling five-year old. When

Speaker Boehner ran into conservative opposition within his own conference, he shifted the

blame to President Obama, arguing that Republicans dont trust him to enforce current

immigration laws. Rather than try to resolve differences in the party that have plagued

Republicans for several years, the leadership decided the risks of inter-party warfare were

too great during a congressional election year. Republican strategists focused on the short

term political gains and argued that anything that took the party focus off of attacking

Obamacare during the election cycle was a distraction and a waste of time. They won out.

Immigration reform, it seems, has fallen victim to election politics yet again.

AND Obama has already shifted focus to foreign policy- lacks political capital

for immigration reform and domestic agenda

Lee, 2/14/14, Carol, After muted triumphs at home, Obama seeks progress abroad, Wall Street Journal,http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/02/14/after-muted-triumphs-at-home-obama-seeks-progress-abroad/

Thats mainlybecause after the fierce, partisan battles of the last five years , PresidentBarack Obamas

victories now often manifest the status quo. Its a reality that seems set to define Mr.

Obamas domestic legislative agenda for the remainder of his term , and one he probably would havefound hard to imagine during his 2008 campaign. As a candidate, Mr. Obama regularly chastised the status quo. Now his White Housesometimes considers it a triumph. There are two cases in point from this week: the debt limit and the health-care law. The administrationannounced that some3.3 million people signed up for health-care coverage under the new law as of January. It was much-welcome news for aWhite House that has been for months digging out from its botched rollout of the law. The House and Senate also passed a so-called clean debt-limit increase,meaning it came with no legislative demands or spending cuts attached that Republicans have insisted on in the past. There wereno eleventh-hour negotiations or default countdown clocks like in previous battles. The votes happened pretty much drama-free, save someremarkable GOP infighting in the Senate. A White House that spent much of its energy, and political capital, in 2013 trying to create that veryscenario had a relatively stoic reaction. An end to that kind of brinksmanship for now is a very welcome thing, White House press secretary JayCarney said before adding: It says something about the expectations that the American people ha ve of Congress that people notice whenCongress actually doesnt do direct harm to the economy. Yet in another sign its a second term, the status quo that the Whi te House claims as avictory at home falls short of Mr. Obamas foreign-policy goals. Thatsin part why the president is spending Valentines Day on a sprawling

Palm Springs, Calif., resort with plans for multiple rounds of golf and some quality time withthe king of Jordan. Mr. Obama is

beginning to turn his sights on foreign policy more than weve seen recently.Its a typical shift for

presidents in their final years in office. But for Mr. Obama, it may be the one area where he can achieve

significant goals.In September, during a speech at the United Nations, Mr. Obama outlined his top three focal points on foreign policyin his second termIran, Syria and Middle East peace. Now that U.S. policy with each has reached an important moment talks with Iran over along-term nuclear deal begin next week, a deadline is approaching in Middle East peace talks, and Syria continues to deteriorate the president

plans to get more personally involved in the process. Thats where King Abdullah II of Jordan comes in. Hes Mr. Obamas first in astring of sit-

downs with leaders from the region. Mr. Obama has little to hope for in a robust legislative agenda this

year, particularly now thatHouse SpeakerJohn Boehner(R., Ohio) has cast doubt on any passage of

immigration reform. The White Houses emphasis on executive action so far hasnt yielded the kind of major change Mr. Obama

initially arrived in Washington promising. Hes expected to get more aggressive in his use of executive action, and is likely to
http://topics.wsj.com/person/O/Barack-Obama/4328?lc=int_mb_1001http://topics.wsj.com/person/O/Barack-Obama/4328?lc=int_mb_1001http://topics.wsj.com/person/O/Barack-Obama/4328?lc=int_mb_1001http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303704304579379042898603278http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303704304579379140420941048http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303704304579379140420941048http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304888404579378861535794256http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304888404579378861535794256http://topics.wsj.com/person/B/john-boehner/6252?lc=int_mb_1001http://topics.wsj.com/person/B/john-boehner/6252?lc=int_mb_1001http://topics.wsj.com/person/B/john-boehner/6252?lc=int_mb_1001http://topics.wsj.com/person/B/john-boehner/6252?lc=int_mb_1001http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304888404579378861535794256http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304888404579378861535794256http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303704304579379140420941048http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303704304579379140420941048http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303704304579379042898603278http://topics.wsj.com/person/O/Barack-Obama/4328?lc=int_mb_1001


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attempt big strides on climate change.But in the meantime, hes often content with the

status quo.

AND Boehner cant move Immigration Reform forward due to distrust of

Obama

Nakamura & OKeefe,14,2/6/14,David and Ed, Boehner: Immigration reform stalls because GOP haswidespread doubt about Obama, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/boehner-immigration-reform-stalls-because-gop-has-widespread-doubt-about-obama/2014/02/06/233b497a-8f55-11e3-b46a-5a3d0d2130da_story.html

A week after signaling that House Republicans wouldpursue an overhaul of immigration

laws,Speaker John A. Boehner declared Thursday that his caucus isunlikely to move

forward until President Obama gains their trust. Theres widespread doubt about

whether this administration can be trusted to enforce our laws, Boehner (R-Ohio) said during a midday

news conference at the Capitol. And its going to be difficult to move any immigration legislation until

that changes. Boehner was making hisfirst extended public remarks since releasinga list of GOP standardsfor immigration policy at

a conference retreat last week. His attempt to place the burden on Obama illustrated the mounting

opposition from hard-line conservatives and laid the groundwork for blaming the White

House if a deal fails. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell(R-Ky.) andRep. Paul Ryan(R-Wis.) said this

week that an immigration deal remains a long shot in a sharply divided Congress. Rep. Ral

R.Labrador (R- Idaho)suggested that Boehner could lose his speakership if he pursues a bill in

a midterm election year.

AND Comprehensive Immigration Reform will not pass the House regardless

of the plan-border security blocks passage due to enforcement doubts

HotAir, 14,1/29/14, Rubio: Obamas lawlessness biggest impediment to passing immigration reform,http://hotair.com/archives/2014/01/29/rubio-obamas-lawlessness-is-the-biggest-impediment-to-passing-immigration-reform/

Rubio said that the fundamental problem to passing immigration reform right now isskepticism on the right that the administration would enforce beefed up border security

measures. He said thatObama administration handling of the Internal Revenue Servicescandal involving scrutiny of Tea Party groups and revelations about widespread National

Security Administration spying have drummed up this skepticism. I dont know if it can

happen under this administration given its lack of willingness to enforce the law. Its a real

impediment,he said.I think that is the fundamental challenge right now how do we gainpeoples confidence that the enforcement will happen.

AND Obamas political capital is not the issue when it comes to immigration

reform- it is John Boehners capital that mattersStanage, 13,12/13/13,Niall, Boehner gives immigration backers hope, The Hill, http://thehill.com/homenews/house/193034-does-

boehner-victory-pave-the-way-for-immigration

Both sides in the immigration debate are watching Speaker John Boehner(R-Ohio) closely

after Thursday evenings[the] emphatic House vote in favor of a bipartisan budget deal. The

calculus is clear in the minds of immigration-reform advocates. They believe that Boehner

wants to get some kind of deal done on immigration, and any development that replenishes

his political capital helps their cause. That Boehners budget victory came as he took on
http://on.wsj.com/1gtSoxIhttp://on.wsj.com/1gtSoxIhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-gop-leaders-embrace-immigration-fix-that-includes-legal-status-for-undocumented/2014/01/30/c49ab006-89f3-11e3-833c-33098f9e5267_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-gop-leaders-embrace-immigration-fix-that-includes-legal-status-for-undocumented/2014/01/30/c49ab006-89f3-11e3-833c-33098f9e5267_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/02/06/boehner-difficult-to-move-on-immigration-reform-in-2014/?tid=up_nexthttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/02/06/boehner-difficult-to-move-on-immigration-reform-in-2014/?tid=up_nexthttp://www.speaker.gov/sites/speaker.house.gov/files/Immigration-Standards.pdfhttp://www.speaker.gov/sites/speaker.house.gov/files/Immigration-Standards.pdfhttp://www.speaker.gov/sites/speaker.house.gov/files/Immigration-Standards.pdfhttp://blogs.rollcall.com/218/tea-party-raul-labrador-predicts-speaker-boehner-lose-gavel/http://blogs.rollcall.com/218/tea-party-raul-labrador-predicts-speaker-boehner-lose-gavel/http://blogs.rollcall.com/218/tea-party-raul-labrador-predicts-speaker-boehner-lose-gavel/http://www.speaker.gov/sites/speaker.house.gov/files/Immigration-Standards.pdfhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/02/06/boehner-difficult-to-move-on-immigration-reform-in-2014/?tid=up_nexthttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/02/06/boehner-difficult-to-move-on-immigration-reform-in-2014/?tid=up_nexthttp://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-gop-leaders-embrace-immigration-fix-that-includes-legal-status-for-undocumented/2014/01/30/c49ab006-89f3-11e3-833c-33098f9e5267_story.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/house-gop-leaders-embrace-immigration-fix-that-includes-legal-status-for-undocumented/2014/01/30/c49ab006-89f3-11e3-833c-33098f9e5267_story.htmlhttp://on.wsj.com/1gtSoxI


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the outside conservative groups that have hampered his ability to lead his conference is an

added plus. Boehners power in the conference is going to be improved said Tamar Jacoby,

president of the pro-reform, business-oriented ImmigrationWorks USA, in advance of the 332-94 House vote. Anything that gives

him more juice is a good thing.

AND TURN THE LINK- Immigration reform is most likely to succeed whenObamas political capital is not attached to it

Cillizza & Blake, 13, Chris and Aaron, What President Obama should (and shouldnt) say in the State of the Union,Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2013/02/12/what-president-obama-should-and-shouldnt-say-in-the-state-of-the-union/

If President Obama wants immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship for

undocumented workers, he may not want to mention it at allin tonights State of the Union speech, a newWashington Post poll suggests. Seven in 10 people in the surveysaid they would support a path to citizenship,including 60 percent of Republicans. But when the same question was asked of a separate sample of

respondents, this timewith Obamas name attached to it, support dropped to 59 percent overall

and just 39 percent among Republicans. On other hot-button issues like banning the sale of semi-automatic assaultweapons or ending the war in Afghanistan, however, lending Obamas name to the proposal made each viewed more favo rablyand thereforeif he were to put his political weight behind them it could actually increase their chances of passing. On doing something about climate change,there was no noticeable movement. Look deeper into the numbers and you can see how much partisanship drives the movement on each of the

issues. On a path to citizenship, Republicans dont mind the idea in theory but loathe it whenattached to Obama.Independents are slightly less likely to support a path to citizenship if it is cast as Obama s proposal, whileDemocrats favor it in basically the same numbers with or without the presidents name being mentioned.


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IMMIGRATION REFORM- GOP

The GOP likely wont allow immigration reform until 2017Kapur, 9/3/14, Sahil, Why Boehner is wrong about immigration happening in 2015,Talking Points Memo,http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/john-boehner-immigration-reform-2015?wpisrc=nl-wonkbk&wpmm=1

That's highly unlikely. Republican and Democratic operatives largely believe the prospects of

reform passing in 2015 and 2016 are slim to none. In 2015, the presidential jousting will

begin, and there are already signs that Republican candidateswill be competing over who's

the toughest sheriff on immigration. Reform is anathema to conservative voters, and GOP

leaders would be more wary of crossing them. There's also a good chance Republicans

would rather wait until after the 2016 election, on the hope that they'll win the White

House and get a bite at that apple themselves. Republicans won't like the idea of helping

Obama secure another legacy-defining achievement. Another obstacle is that the Senate-passed bill will be defunct in 2015, which means Congress would have to restart the process

from scratch. Even leading pro-immigration Democrats have openly admitted reform is

probably deadlikely until at least 2017if it doesn't pass this year.

AND no GOP-led immigration reform even after the mid-terms- multiple

warrants

Vinick, 9/3/14, Danny, Boehner says immigration reform could happen next summer: sound familiar? NewRepublic, http://www.newrepublic.com/article/119306/john-boehner-wrong-immigration-reform-isnt-happening-next-year?wpisrc=nl-wonkbk&wpmm=1

Boehner has long played footsie with Democrats over passing a comprehensive bill. Last

November, Boehnertold reporters that immigration reform absolutely wasnt dead. But

in February, after the right wing freaked out over immigration principlesthat the House GOP

leadership released, Boehner pulled back and announced that no reform was possible, because Obama was

untrustworthy. Just like that, immigration reform was dead. But couldnt this time be different? It seems highly

unlikely, for four reasons: 1. Ted Cruzs Presidential Ambitions. As the Republican

primaries heat up, immigration reform will be one of the top issues. And the Texas

freshman is almost certain to take a hard line positionto win over the GOP base that votes in primaries. In doingso, hes going to pull his entire party to the right, leaving even less space to compromise with Democrats. As the Washington Posts Greg Sargent

has written, this might be thenightmare scenario for the Republican Party. 2. Marco Rubios RecentBacktracking.

Rubio infuriated the base when he brokered the Senate immigration bill in 2013 that

included a pathway to citizenship. Ever since, hes been trying make amends. Just a few days ago,

Rubiosaid that if the Senate bill came up under todays political atmospherewhen, according to

Republicans, distrust of Obama is at an all-time highhe would vote against it. 3. TheRight Wings Victory

over the House GOP Border Bill.Just before the August recess, the House stayed in session an extra dayafter the House leadership was unable to pass their preferred legislation to address the border crisis. Faced with a revolt from his right,

Boehner made the bill even more conservative and allowed a vote on a bill to undo Obamas 2010 executive

action on immigration. In other words, the House GOP is moving further to the right on

immigration, not towards the center. 4. Eric Cantors Primary Defeat. Its certainly true that Eric
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/brutal-gop-2016-primary-fight-immigrationhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/21/john-boehner-immigration-reform_n_4317511.htmlhttp://blogs.rollcall.com/218/boehner-releases-immigration-principles/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/01/31/the-nightmare-scenario-for-republicans-on-immigration/http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/216311-rubios-new-tune-on-immigrationhttp://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/216311-rubios-new-tune-on-immigrationhttp://hotair.com/archives/2014/08/28/rubio-if-i-had-to-vote-again-on-my-gang-of-eight-immigration-bill-id-vote-no/http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/08/05/Conservatives-Cite-Grassroots-Pressure-In-Immigration-Victoryhttp://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/08/05/Conservatives-Cite-Grassroots-Pressure-In-Immigration-Victoryhttp://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/08/05/Conservatives-Cite-Grassroots-Pressure-In-Immigration-Victoryhttp://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/08/05/Conservatives-Cite-Grassroots-Pressure-In-Immigration-Victoryhttp://hotair.com/archives/2014/08/28/rubio-if-i-had-to-vote-again-on-my-gang-of-eight-immigration-bill-id-vote-no/http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/216311-rubios-new-tune-on-immigrationhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/01/31/the-nightmare-scenario-for-republicans-on-immigration/http://blogs.rollcall.com/218/boehner-releases-immigration-principles/http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/21/john-boehner-immigration-reform_n_4317511.htmlhttp://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/brutal-gop-2016-primary-fight-immigration


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Cantor, the former House Majority Leader, did not lose his primary to Dave Brat solely, because of immigration reform. There were many other

reasons,including Cantors friendliness with Wall Street and his broken promises to conservatives. But many Republicans will

take his defeat as a sign not to compromise on immigration reform in any way. That

message will not disappear next year .

AND the most likely outcome of the mid-terms is more obstruction

Ornstein, 9/3/14, Norm, Americas midterms will not break the deadlock, Financial Times,http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5acaa630-3200-11e4-b929-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3CODFwQfF

Republicans in Congress have become a parliamentary opposition party in a country that

does not have a parliamentary system. The result has been deadlock. At the same time,

Republicans have moved sharply to the right.AlthoughTea Party activists won few victories over establishmentfigures in primaries this yearHouse majority leader Eric Cantor was the exception this is largely because establishment figures saw off

challengers by adopting radical Tea Party positions themselves. A Republican victory in the Senate would be seized

by the partys politicians asvindication for the strategy of obstruction. Why compromise

with a lame duck president when Republican rule looms? They would try to use control of

the legislative process to bludgeon Mr Obama on everything from immigration to climate

change. As Mitch McConnell, Senate Republican leader, has said: We will be pushing back against this bureaucracy...All across thefederal government, were going to go after it. Besides voting 50 times to repeal Mr Obamas healthcare reform act, Republic ans haveinvestigated alleged scandals ranging from claims that the state department did too little to protect US diplomats in Benghazi to accusations ofimpropriety at the Internal Revenue Service. If they controlled Congress, they would seek to dish even more dirt. True, a Republican Congresswould be more visible to votersand more readily blamed for obstruction. The party would need to build a positive record of accomplishment.

But in the most obvious area for compromise, immigration reform, agreement is slipping

even further out of reach. Marco Rubiothe Republican senator who was the catalyst for

a bipartisan immigration reform bill that passed the Senate in 2013, but was defeated in the

Househas abandoned his support for the measure and taken a strident line against Mr

Obama. Americans of all persuasions are hoping to see a less divisive kind of politics.

Novembers elections are likely to disappoint them.

AND a GOP-midterm victory will make Congress more cautious, not less

Sarlin, 9/3/14, Benjy, Immigration reformers split over White House delay, MSNBC.com,http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/immigration-reformers-split-over-white-house-delay

As the White House debates whether to go forward with major executive action on

immigration, supporters of reform are torn over whether to accept a potential delay until

after the midterm elections.President Obama said in June that he would take unilateral steps to revamp the immigration systemby the end of the summer. Recently, however, he said that the administrations ongoing efforts to deal with a wave of Central America minors atthe border could alter his timeline. There is the chance that it could be before the end of the summer, there is the chance that it could be after thesummer, White House press secretary Josh Earnest told reporters on Tuesday. The prospect of a delay sparked an outcry among prominentimmigration leaders. In a press call Wednesday, Illinois Democratic Rep. Luis Gutierrez joined activists from Americas Voice , United WeDream, and the National Council of La Raza to demand in no uncertain terms that Obama follow through on an earlier pledge to act onimmigration before summers end. Its not just one more delayed promise, Lorella Praeli, director of policy and advocacy for United WeDream, told reporters. It means people like my mother and millions more will continue to be vulnerable to deportation. Not everyone in the

pro-reform camp is so gung ho on immediate action, however. A number of activists, commentators and officials are concerned that by stickingto the summer schedule, Obama could drag down Democratic senators facing tough races in November all of whom voted for comprehensivereform last year. Colorado isthe only state that has both a competitive Senate contest and a large pool of Latino voters, limiting the politicalupside on the other end. The immigrant community has had a very good run of elections breaking their way in terms of making a direct impact,one activist told msnbc. This cycle may not be the case. Democratic Sens. Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Mark Begich in Alaska, Mark Pryorin Arkansas and Democratic candidates Michelle Nunn in Georgia and Alison Lundergran Grimes in Kentucky have all publicly broken with the

president on the need for executive action. Privately, aides to vulnerable senators have expressed concern to leadership about the issue, which

they fear might hand their opponents a political cudgel in the final stretch. Having Republicans capture the Senate

and maintain the House, which seems likely, would be pretty much a disaster for

immigration reform, Fernando Espuelas, a radio host for Univision, told msnbc. North
http://www.redstate.com/2014/06/10/why-eric-cantor-lost/http://www.redstate.com/2014/06/10/why-eric-cantor-lost/http://www.redstate.com/2014/06/10/why-eric-cantor-lost/http://www.ft.com/topics/themes/Tea_Party_movementhttp://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/immigration-reformers-make-stand-coloradohttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2FSB40001424052970204707304580114163897833990&ei=xIUHVMHSMMfJggSkroDoAg&usg=AFQjCNEKNy0GDA6R3mHfKN-TWOL56s-ANA&sig2=W6gORFqD3SY0Sqx9YrMEtw&bvm=bv.74115972,d.eXYhttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2FSB40001424052970204707304580114163897833990&ei=xIUHVMHSMMfJggSkroDoAg&usg=AFQjCNEKNy0GDA6R3mHfKN-TWOL56s-ANA&sig2=W6gORFqD3SY0Sqx9YrMEtw&bvm=bv.74115972,d.eXYhttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2FSB40001424052970204707304580114163897833990&ei=xIUHVMHSMMfJggSkroDoAg&usg=AFQjCNEKNy0GDA6R3mHfKN-TWOL56s-ANA&sig2=W6gORFqD3SY0Sqx9YrMEtw&bvm=bv.74115972,d.eXYhttps://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2FSB40001424052970204707304580114163897833990&ei=xIUHVMHSMMfJggSkroDoAg&usg=AFQjCNEKNy0GDA6R3mHfKN-TWOL56s-ANA&sig2=W6gORFqD3SY0Sqx9YrMEtw&bvm=bv.74115972,d.eXYhttp://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/immigration-reformers-make-stand-coloradohttp://www.ft.com/topics/themes/Tea_Party_movementhttp://www.redstate.com/2014/06/10/why-eric-cantor-lost/http://www.redstate.com/2014/06/10/why-eric-cantor-lost/


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Carolina looks like a tie right now, will it become a loss for Democrats? Will Louisiana be

the same? I worry about that.The 2014 map creates pitfalls for reformers as a result. Until recently, the conventional wisdomhas been that immigration reform is all upside for Democrats. Obamas decision in 2012 to halt deportations for DREAMers young immigrants

brought to the U.S. as childrenenergized Democrats and Latino voters with seemingly no corresponding damage among independents orconservatives. That calculus could change this year if Obama goes big and protects millions from deportation and Democrats go on to lose the

Senate. At that point, politicians in both parties might grow more cautious in their approach, which

could reduce the clout of the same immigration advocacy groups pushing for immediateexecutive action. Already, reformers have had to deal with a similar situation in the

Republican primaries. After House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary in

Virginia, advocates rushed to reassure nervous Republicans that the upset was unrelated to

Cantors weak feints toward reform. The House GOP has swung even further to the right

on the issue since then, recently voting to deport DREAMersimmigratnts brought to the U.S. as children. The political

environment around immigration has also changed in recent months. Obamas poll

numbers on the issue have hit new lows since the Central American border issue emerged.

Just 31% of Americans approve of his immigration policy versus 61% who disapprove,

according to a recentPew Research Center poll.That finding is in line with other surveys

fromCBS News and theAssociated Press.
http://www.people-press.org/files/2014/08/8-28-14-Obama-and-Foreign-Affairs-topline-for-release.pdfhttp://www.cbsnews.com/news/americans-views-of-obama-congress-gloomy/http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/AP-GfK-July-2014-Poll-Topline-FINAL-Immigration.pdfhttp://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/AP-GfK-July-2014-Poll-Topline-FINAL-Immigration.pdfhttp://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/AP-GfK-July-2014-Poll-Topline-FINAL-Immigration.pdfhttp://www.cbsnews.com/news/americans-views-of-obama-congress-gloomy/http://www.people-press.org/files/2014/08/8-28-14-Obama-and-Foreign-Affairs-topline-for-release.pdf


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EXPORT-IMPORT (EX-IM)

Ex-Im bank isnt at the top of the docket- right now it isnt even on the docket

OKeefe, 9/4/14, Ed, Reporter for Washington Post, Hill leaders hoping for a quick September session -and noshutdown drama, Washington Post,http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hill-leaders-hoping-for-a-quick-september-session--and-no-shutdown-drama/2014/09/04/3575a1ce-346b-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394

House Republicans are expected to unveil a short-term spending plan next weekthat would

continue current spending levels through at least early December, according to top aides. Its still unclear whether Boehner

and his leadership team will add other items to the measure, including reauthorization of

the Export-Import Bank,the federal entity that provides loan guarantees to foreign purchasers of American goods, including

airplanes. Reauthorizing the bank has emerged as a cause clbre for conservative Republicans

who believe the bank is an example of crony capitalism, or Washingtons practice of

putting corporate interests over ordinary people. In order to reauthorize the bank,

Boehner will need to strike an agreement with Rep. Jeb Hensarling(R-Tex.), who chairs theHouse Financial Services Committee that oversees the bank and who has emerged as one of

its fiercest critics.

AND The Ex-Im reauthorization wont pass-both Republicans and Democrats

hate it

Turbeville, 9/3/14, Brandon, The hidden bi-partisan agenda behind eliminating the export-import bank, ActivistPost, http://www.activistpost.com/2014/09/the-hidden-bipartisan-agenda-behind.html

Thus, when we see a formation of both Democrats and Republicans coming together for the

purpose of eliminating the Export-Import Bank, red flags should immediately go up in regards to the true motivationand result of their newfound alliance. For instance, leading the charge against the Export-Import Bank is the

Republican Congressman Jeb Hensarlingof Texas. Hensarling has repeatedly characterized

the Export-Import Bank as corrupt and a risk to American taxpayers. The Congressman

has referenced a number of major corporations that the bank has provided assistance to

that have proven to be non-productive or even negatively productive to the US economy.

Hensarling has also argued, in essence, that the Export-Import Bank violates the concept of

the Austrian school of economics. Others on the Republican side, most notably Koch

Industries and groups that Koch backs(Americans for Prosperity, Competitive Enterprise Institute, and Mercatus Center

to name a few), have also made common practice of attacking the Ex-Im Bank.For instance, as theHuffington Post writes, The Kochs have even helped bankroll a superhero satire project called The Kronies, which rana short cartoon attackingEx-Im titled, "Laughing All The Way To the Export Import Bank." The flood of institutional effort has made enmity toward Ex-Im a staple of

popular conservatism similar to the old hostility directed at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But while the Ex-Im Bank suffersan attack from the Right, it is also receivingblows from the Left Liberal side of the aisle.

For instance, Florida Representative Alan Grayson has described the Ex-Im Bank as being

corporate welfare at its worst. Grayson went even further by stating We are extending the full faith and credit of the U.S.government to foreign companies, when we should be extending it to the American middle class instead. When these foreign borrowers go brokeone day, as they surely will, our taxpayers will end up on the hook for their debt. And all for the sake of U.S. exports that would have happened

anyway. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama (on the campaign trail)

railed against the cronyism of the Ex-Im Bank by heaving forward the left-wing talking

point attack on the Bank as being corporate welfare.Grayson is also joined by Democratic Representative
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hill-leaders-hoping-for-a-quick-september-session--and-no-shutdown-drama/2014/09/04/3575a1ce-346b-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hill-leaders-hoping-for-a-quick-september-session--and-no-shutdown-drama/2014/09/04/3575a1ce-346b-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hill-leaders-hoping-for-a-quick-september-session--and-no-shutdown-drama/2014/09/04/3575a1ce-346b-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hill-leaders-hoping-for-a-quick-september-session--and-no-shutdown-drama/2014/09/04/3575a1ce-346b-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394http://www.activistpost.com/2014/09/the-hidden-bipartisan-agenda-behind.htmlhttp://thehill.com/policy/international/215825-hensarling-ex-im-bank-fund-for-corporate-welfarehttp://thehill.com/policy/international/215825-hensarling-ex-im-bank-fund-for-corporate-welfarehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw2cP00zbgQhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/26/government-shutdown-export-import-bank_n_5531851.htmlhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/26/government-shutdown-export-import-bank_n_5531851.htmlhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hw2cP00zbgQhttp://thehill.com/policy/international/215825-hensarling-ex-im-bank-fund-for-corporate-welfarehttp://www.activistpost.com/2014/09/the-hidden-bipartisan-agenda-behind.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hill-leaders-hoping-for-a-quick-september-session--and-no-shutdown-drama/2014/09/04/3575a1ce-346b-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hill-leaders-hoping-for-a-quick-september-session--and-no-shutdown-drama/2014/09/04/3575a1ce-346b-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/hill-leaders-hoping-for-a-quick-september-session--and-no-shutdown-drama/2014/09/04/3575a1ce-346b-11e4-a723-fa3895a25d02_story.html?tid=hpModule_f8335a3c-868c-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394


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from Texas, Lloyd Doggett, in opposition to the existence of the Ex-Im Bank. The question surrounding the bank is particularly prescient due tothe fact that its formal authorization is set to expire on September 30, the day Congressional funding for the entire Federal government runs out.

AND Ex-Im reauthorization wont pass- House GOP leaders oppose it

Bresnahan & Sherman, 9/3/14, House GOp moves toward Export-Import Bank Deal, Politico,http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/export-import-bank-gop-110552.html

Speaker John Boehner of Ohio and House Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling of Texas have a private agreement to act on a short-termreauthorization of the government-sponsored international finance bank, the sources said. The length of that potential extension is still unclear.

Hensarling wants to see the banks charter extended until early in 2015perhaps just until February. But some in Republican

leadership think Hensarling might need more time to build support for a plan to reform

the [Export-Import] bank or wind it down entirely. Its not clear whether the banks

charter would be extended as part of the must-pass government funding bill that needs to

clear Congress by Sept. 30 or as a piece of stand-alone legislation. House Republican

leaders need to move quickly, however. If a government-funding bill clears Congress

without any hiccups, the House leadership is likely to cancel the chambers last week in

session in September, which would leave lawmakers two weeks in Washington before

leaving to campaign for the November midterms. The issue came up on a call with Republican lawmakers

Wednesday afternoon. The Export-Import Bank has emerged as a big target for conservatives like Hensarling. Many Republicanssay the bank represents crony capitalism and corporate welfare, and must be ended .

Boehner has stayed mum on the topic but privately supports reforms to the bank. Its not clear whether any legislation to

extend the bank would have the votes to pass the House. Both House Majority Leader

Kevin McCarthy(R-Calif.) and Majority Whip Steve Scalise(R-La.) have said they support

ending the banks charter.

AND even if Ex-Im passes the House, a filibuster in the Senate is likely

Huder, 9/4/14, Joshua, Recess is over: Congress (will be) back in session, Rule 22,http://rule22.wordpress.com/2014/09/04/recess-is-over-congress-will-be-back-in-session/

Addressing the Export-Import Bank charter is unavoidable this month. The banks charterexpires onSeptember 30thand Congresss action or inaction on this front will make headlines. The banks existence highlights

the now frequent divide between immoderate and mainstream Republicans. More

conservative members, who now include high-ranking Republicans such as McCarthy (CA), Scalise (LA), and Financial Services

Chair Hensarling (TX), oppose the banks reauthorization.Meanwhile, business groups such as the Chamber of Commerce,

the National Association of Manufacturers, among several hundredothers,have sent several heavy-hitters to advocate for thebank.Reportsindicate that a short-term extension is being negotiated between Boehner and Hensarling. The Senate has already begun the processof bringing its reauthorization to the floor. However, it is unclear how and when the reauthorization will make

its way through the process before the 30th.Any provision including Ex-Ims extension will

face opposition. Therefore, it will need to be done quickly as it will almost certainly face a

filibuster in the Senate, which could delay action for two weeks.

AND Ex-Im reauthorization would be harmful-laundry list of reasons

Winthrow, 9/4/14, Josh, Top ten reasons to let the export-import bank expire, Freedom Works,http://www.freedomworks.org/content/top-ten-reasons-let-export-import-bank-expire

Top Ten Reasons to Let the Export-Import Bank Expire: 1. It Has Outlived Its Purpose The Ex-Im Bank was

founded 80 years ago by FDR to promote U.S. manufacturing during the Great Depression. Meanwhile, in the 2010s, U.S. exports have

been setting record highsthey dont need government help. 2.It Lets Government Pick Winners and
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/export-import-bank-gop-110552.htmlhttp://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/export-import-bank-gop-110552.htmlhttp://exportersforexim.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2014/06/FINAL-NAM-Chamber-Joint-Ex-Im-Letter-with-signatories.pdfhttp://exportersforexim.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2014/06/FINAL-NAM-Chamber-Joint-Ex-Im-Letter-with-signatories.pdfhttp://exportersforexim.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2014/06/FINAL-NAM-Chamber-Joint-Ex-Im-Letter-with-signatories.pdfhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/06/23/business-groups-step-up-fight-on-ex-im-bank/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/06/23/business-groups-step-up-fight-on-ex-im-bank/http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/06/23/business-groups-step-up-fight-on-ex-im-bank/http://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/export-import-bank-gop-110552.htmlhttp://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/export-import-bank-gop-110552.htmlhttp://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/export-import-bank-gop-110552.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/06/23/business-groups-step-up-fight-on-ex-im-bank/http://exportersforexim.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/15/2014/06/FINAL-NAM-Chamber-Joint-Ex-Im-Letter-with-signatories.pdfhttp://www.politico.com/story/2014/09/export-import-bank-gop-110552.html


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Losers Although Ex-Im claims to pick its recipients in a neutral manner, the reality is that political pressures strongly affect

who receives its financial backing.For example, in 2009 the Obama administration gave Ex-Im a green energy quota for a

portion of its loans. 3.Its Risky Loans Put it in Danger of Needing Taxpayer Bailouts The Ex- Im Banks purpose is specifically to promote

exports by guaranteeing companies loans that are not in competition with the free market. But if these companies cant get

loans on the free market, that means that they are inherently riskier than private lenders

are willing to accept, with taxpayers on the hook if they fail. Ex-Im already needed abailout once, in 1987, and with a history of making loans to companies like Solyndra it could happen again. 4. It Costs Taxpayers MoneyAnnually Thanks to government accounting gimmicks, the Ex-Im Bank claims that they dont actually cost the government any money. But if

you use the same true-value accounting that private companies must use, it turns out the Ex-Im will actually cost taxpayers

$2 billion over the next decade. 5.Most of Its Funding Goes to Big Corporations Who Dont Need the Money An

examination of Ex-Ims books show that alarge majority of Ex-Ims financial backing goes

to a small handful of multinational corporations(Boeing, General Electric, Caterpillar, Bechtel, etc.). These

companies are massively profitable and certainly dont need help from taxpayers to export

their goods. 6.It Lets Foreign Corporations Undercut U.S. Competitors What people see with Ex-Im is the exports that get subsidized

and sold overseas. What they dont see is how foreign corporations can use thosecheaper goods them to

undercut their U.S. competitors. 7. It Only Benefits a Few States, but Every State Bears the Costs Just as the Ex-Im

Bank only benefitsa tiny fraction of the nations total exports, fewer than ten states have

any significant amount of their imports subsidizedby Ex-Im. Yet the citizens of every state must bear the costs. 8.It Is Prone to Corruption Whenever you involve the government in handing out money, theres a strong possibility corruption will ensue. Sure

enough, several Ex-Im Bank officials areunder investigation for allegedly taking kickbacks in

exchange for steering loans to certain companies. 9. There AreBetter Ways to Help U.S.

ManufacturersIf the government wants to see U.S. jobs and exports skyrocket, it should lower and simplify the tax and regulatory

burden U.S. companies face. Our corporate taxes are the highest in the developed world, which makes our

businesses uncompetitive in a global economy. 10. It Is Unnecessary Based on all of the above criteria, the Export Import Bank of the United

States cannot justify its continued existence. Its also one of the easiest programs to retire, as its

authorization expires in September 2014 if Congress simply does nothing.

AND Ex-Im would be viewed as a flip-flop for Obama

Slingsby, 9/4/14, Zack, Education coordinator for Heritage Action, Ex-Im Bank- Just the facts, The Forge,http://heritageaction.com/2014/09/ex-im-bank-just-facts/

A Congressional Research Service report has confirmed that Ex-Im shifts jobs; it does not create them:

Economists generally maintain that subsidizing export financing does not add to the

overall level of economic activity, and subsidizes foreign consumption at the expense of the

domestic economy.[Therefore], promoting exports through subsidized financingwill not perman ently raise the level of employmentin the economy, but alters the composition of employment among various sectors and performs poorly as a jobs creation mechanism. SubsidyHarm? When Ex-Im bureaucrats hand out taxpayer-backed loans Unsubsidized domestic businesses must face competitors backstopped by agovernment guarantee Subsidized domestic businesses grow lazy and complacent relying on federal assistance, and are further encouraged to useresources for lobbying rather than productive investment Market actors are encouraged to make bad investments by the distortion of true

opportunity cost Consumers face higher prices, since subsidizing exports helps foreign consumers at the

expense of domestic consumers Political Climate? In 2008, then-Senator Barack Obama

denounced Ex-Im on the campaign trail: Im not a Democrat who believes that we should

defend every government program. There are some that dont work like we had

hoped[like] the Export-Import Bank that has become little more than a fund for

corporate welfare.

AND Flip-flops wreck political capital

Cohen, 97Fordham University political science professor, 97 (Jeffrey E., 1997, Presidential Responsiveness and PublicPolicy Making, p. 123)
http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2014/8/ex-im-bank-little-more-than-corporate-welfarehttp://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2014/8/ex-im-bank-little-more-than-corporate-welfarehttp://mercatus.org/publication/ex-im-funds-flow-few-states-all-bear-riskshttp://www.freedomworks.org/content/ex-im-banks-corruption-problemhttp://mercatus.org/publication/there-are-better-ways-help-us-exporters-compete-abroad-ex-im-bankhttp://mercatus.org/publication/there-are-better-ways-help-us-exporters-compete-abroad-ex-im-bankhttp://www.freedomworks.org/content/ex-im-banks-corruption-problemhttp://mercatus.org/publication/ex-im-funds-flow-few-states-all-bear-riskshttp://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2014/8/ex-im-bank-little-more-than-corporate-welfare


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A president cannot, without good reason, alter his policy stance. And even if he has good

reason to change his policy position on an issue, he may have to bear some costs from doing

so. The public and other political elites may view him as waffling, indecisive, weak,

uncommitted, and/or duplicitous. This seems very much to be one of the major charges against Bill Clintons presidency.After abandoning his campaign promise of a middle-class tax cut because of budget deficit pressures, Clinton reoffered a tax cut in the wake of

the devastating 1994 midterm elections, in which his party lost control of Congress. From being publicly cool toward the North American FreeTrade pact during his presidential election campaign, he became an ardent promoter of that policy once in the Oval Office. From these, and many

other occasions, Clinton has developed an image ofa waffling politician, one who is forever changing his

mind, perennially trying to stake out the most popular position with the public and not

necessarily a president who is able to lead.


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ASIAN PIVOT

The link is non-unique- Obama has already abandoned the Asian pivot

Tiezzi, 14,1/30/14, Shannon, Has Obama abandoned the pivot to Asia, The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/has-obama-abandoned-the-pivot-to-asia/

As with many speeches, what Obama didnt talk about is just as important as what he actually said .

By avoiding or ignoring issues, Obama sent a message about his administrations priorities for the upcoming year. For those who

support increased U.S. engagement in the Asia-Pacific, the message wasnt pretty. With allObamas focus on the U.S. economy, it was a perfect time for him to make a high -profile push for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), especiallygivenfoot-dragging in Congress over granting the necessary trade promotion authority to move the pact along. Yet the TPP was notably absentfrom Obamas address, other than a quick, throw-away mention of new trade partnerships with Europe and the Asia -Pacific being able to createnew jobs. As TPP negotiations reach the final, critical stage, public support from Obama in his most widely covered speech of the year would

have been extremely valuable. That he couldnt make room for even a sentence in his speech speaks volumes. In broader terms, Obama

missed a clear opportunity to restate one of his signature foreign policy initiatives, the U.S.

rebalance (previously dubbed the pivot) to Asia. The Trans-Pacific Partnership was seen as an important economic aspect of the

rebalance; its absence from the State of Union reflected the speechs neglect of the whole region. There was no mention of therebalance, just a general promise to continue to focus on the Asia-Pacific, where we support our allies, shape a future of greater security

and prosperity and extend a hand to those devastated by disaster. Obama flubbed the chance to clearly articulate

his visio

2ac politics updates- wake forest

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