2ac case answers

8/13/2019 2AC Case Answers

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Dominion Debate 2012-2013[File Name] [Name]

***OVERVIEWS***

2AC

Extend the a!e"Fi#!t i! inhe#en$%

&$d#o'en ()el !tation! exi!t in the #i+ate !eto# in the !tat)! ,)o b)t the la. o(/ide!#ead !)o#t /ont be able to en!)#e the !)e!! o( ()el ell +ehile!/hen mao# a)toma.e#! #elea!e them in 201 4he 'a! tax ha! al!o not been#ai!ed o# ad)!ted (o# in(lation !ine the 1550!Next i! oil deendene%6lobal oil #od)tion i! delinin' in the !tat)! ,)o /hih /ill a)!e the 7S toin+ite 6eo#'ia to N84O to ae!! 9a!ian oil !)lie! 4hat lead! to ine+itableNato-R)!!ian on(lit /hih a)!e! extintion 4he lan !ol+e! b$ ha!in' o)t oil(#om t#an!o#tation +ia h$d#o'en +ehile! in the lon' te#m and modi($in' d#i+in'beha+io#! in the !ho#t te#mNext /a#min'%

6lobal /a#min' i! t#)e We need to a+oid :0 m o( 9o2 in the atmo!he#ebe(o#e extintion beome! ine+itable &$d#o'en i! the be!t otion (o# the 7S toon+e#t to !)!tainable ()el! /hile the 'a! tax int#od)e! (o!!il ()el )!e into #iemehani!m! /hih lo/e#! a#bon emi!!ion! I##e+e#!ibilit$ i! a !ide on!t#ainton thi! (lo/Sol+en$%Rai!in' the 'a! tax b$ ;1 i! eno)'h to 'et eole to !/ith to ()el +ehile! andha+e them d#i+e mo#e e((iientl$ 9heae# atal$!t! mean h$d#o'en #od)tion i!no/ eonomial Finall$ h$d#o'en ()el !tation! !ill o+e# and lead to h$d#o'ena! an ene#'$ !o)#e in all o( t#an!o#tation

1ARInhe#en$%4he#e a#e no (ede#all$ ()nded ()el !tation! in the !tat)! ,)o 4he 'a! tax ha! notbeen #ai!ed !ine the 50! 4hi! #e!ent! #oblem! (o# /hen a)toma.e#! #elea!eh$d#o'en ()eled +ehile!Oil deendene%Fallin' oil #od)tion /ill a)!e 6eo#'ia to oin N84O lead! to 7S R)!!ia /a#4he ombination o( h$d#o'en and a 'a! tax /ill allo/ the 7S to #ed)e oildeendene !o that it doe!nt ha+e an$ e((et on (o#ei'n oli$ in the !ho#t #)nand eliminate deendene in the lon' te#mWa#min'%

It! a thin' one :0 a#t! e# million o( 9o2 a#e in the atmo!he#e /e#e done4he 'a! tax int#od)e! the o!t! o( (o!!il ()el )!e into the ma#.et to o##et thene'ati+e exte#nalit$ /hile h$d#o'en !ol+e! /a#min' in the lon' te#mSol+en$%

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In#ea!in' the 'a! tax b$ ;1 e# 'allon i! eno)'h to a)!e on!)me#! to !hi(t toh$d#o'en indeendentl$ and ()el !tation! !ill o+e# to #eate a ()ll$ h$d#o'ent#an!o#tation !$!tem

2AR

Inhe#en$%Ri'ht no/ the#e a#ent an$ h$d#o'en ()elin' !tation! the 'a! tax i! lo/ and both/ill !ta$ that /a$Oil%4he 7S /ill inl)de 6eo#'ia in N84O in o#de# to 'et ae!! to 9a!ian Oilbea)!e o( delinin' 'lobal oil #od)tion 4hat lead! to a Nato +! R)!!iaaoal$!e bea)!e R)!!ia +ie/! 6eo#'ia a! it! !o+e#ei'nt$ 4he onl$ /a$ toa+oid thi! i! to #ed)e oil deendene in the immediate te#m /ith a 'a! tax andeliminate it in the lon' te#m /ith a 'a! taxWa#min'%9o2 emi!!ion! a#e a)!in' /a#min' and it ha! a th#e!hold o( :0 m o( 9o2

be(o#e /e all die We#e at :00 and o)ntin' that! &an!en 05 and 9)mmin! and8llen 10 4he 'a! tax ma.e! (o!!il ()el )!e mo#e exen!i+e oma#ed to leanene#'$ /hile h$d#o'en #o+ide! an alte#nati+e ()el to t#an!ition to Sine/a#min' i! i##e+e#!ible e+e#$ !eond $o) dont +ote 8FF i! a !eond lo!e# toextintionSol+en$%&$d#o'en i! totall$ !a(e and #ead$ to 'o and a 'a! tax #omt! a !hi(t Fede#al!)o#t i! .e$

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SO


5/48


Doesnt assume gas tax

6#o) thei# h$d#o'en !ol+en$ debate% None o( it a!!)me! h$d#o'en +ehile!()nded b$ the 'a! tax 4hat! .e$ to #o+ide #e+en)e (o# h$d#o'en !tation! that!ol+e! ba. an$ teh ba##ie#! that eme#'e and #omt on!)me# !hi(t to

h$d#o'en bea)!e 'a! beome! oma#ati+el$ mo#e exen!i+e that!>#a)thamme# 5 and ?an.i/ 5 (#om 189 !ol+en$


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A2: Distorts the market

Doe!nt di!to#t the ma#.et"a 4hei# e+idene a!!)me! that /ed be in+e!tin' di#etl$ into the ma#.et (o#h$d#o'en ()el ell +ehile!% that! not the a!e@ /e in+e!t in the ()el !tation!

b It! hi.en and the e''"la#'e !ale h$d#o'en /ont de+elo /itho)t'o+e#nment inte#+ention Aeole /ont b)$ a#! the$ ant #e()el and !tation!/ont oen /itho)t a ma#.et 4he lan i! the onl$ /a$ to !ol+e We at)all$ 9ORRE94 (o# a di!to#ted ma#.et 4he #ie o( 'a! i! a#ti(iiall$ lo/bea)!e it doe!nt ao)nt (o# ho/ it emit! 9o2 mean! ma#'inal !oial o!t i!)##entl$ '#eate# than ma#'inal !oial bene(it

A2: Not economical

a 4hei# e+idene doe!nt a!!)me ne/ hea !alable atal$!t! li.e obalt andho!hate that !ol+e bette# than nat)#al 'a! #e(o#min' Extend 6#abe# B that thi!ne/ tehnolo'$ mean! h$d#o'en !ol+e!

b ?ao# a)toma.e#! a#e 'oin' to #elea!e ne/ ()el ell +ehile! at mode#n a##ie!"that! 8!hle$ B $o) an #o!! al$ it (#om the inhe#en$ (lo/ 4he a#dal!o tal.! abo)t ho/ h$d#o'en i! at)all$ )!t a! exen!i+e i( not heae# than'a!oline in #eal o!t!

E+en i( h$d#o'en /o)ldnt be eonomial in no#mal i#)m!tane! the 'a! tax#ai!e! the #ie o( (o!!il ()el! mean! that h$d#o'en beome! oma#able to(o!!il ()el )!e

1AR ext4he$ !a$ &$d#o'en i!nt eonomial b)t extend o)# 3 a#t an!/e#"a 6#abe# B"all thei# e+ tal.! abo)t h$d#o'en #eation! bein' exen!i+e bea)!eo( latin)m atal$!t! b)t Ni.el and 9obalt an !ol+e thi! i!!)e ea!il$b Extend 8!hle$ B /e #o!!-alied it in the 289"e+e#$ mao# a)toma.e# i!#elea!in' ()el ell +ehile! the$ll be o)t b$ 201 &$d#o'en i! ometiti+e /ith'a!oline at the )m no/ and eonomie! o( !ale /ill !ol+e ba. the #e!t

C


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A2: Dirty Hydrogen

a &$d#o'en i! m)h leane# than 'a!oline9#o(ton, mem&er o' the law 'irm o' Toler ; Hanrahan, E?E7N)N? H@>7?EN E=7N71@,

2+ Energy


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A2: Long timerame

a 9#o!!-al$ Va')! C-21 (#om the 189 inhe#en$"mao# a)toma.e#! a#eint#od)in' ()el ell +ehile! in 201 4he 7S /ill mi!! o)t enti#el$ on thebene(it! o( the!e +ehile! i( /e dont in+e!t in the ()elin' !tation! no/

b F)ll !ol+en$ not .e$ in the nea# te#m"/e !ol+e inte#national e#etion o(7S !e#io)!ne!! in limate han'e e((o#t! that! Robe#t! 0: 4hi! i! a h)'eoneded lin. /hih mean! that e+e#$ dolla# !ent on the a(( i! at)all$ anothe##ea!on /h$ /e !ol+e /a#min' bette#

1AR Ext4he$ !a$ lon' time(#ame b)ta Extend Va')! C-21 /e ont#ol )ni,)ene!!"mao# a)toma.e#! #elea!in' ()elell +ehile! in 201 in(#a!t#)t)#e ba!e en!)#e! on!)me#! b)$ the a#!

b E+en i( the$#e #i'ht ()ll !ol+en$ i!nt .e$ no/ bea)!e it !ol+e! limateleade#!hi b$ the 7S that! Robe#t! in :

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A2: !ransportation not key

a 8 thi#d o( the 9O2 emi!!ion! ome (#om t#an!o#tationrmor 2+/$N$ rmor ddressing the =72 ilemma 2! /an%ary 2+

htt":##www$s"ringerlin6$com#content#'9+++CCD2#'%llte*t$"d'ith =72, there e*ists a dilemma: the most convenient and cost e''ective '%els 'or the "rod%ction o'energy are hydrocar&ons, &%t with the com&%stion o' these hydrocar&on '%els comes the "rod%ctiono' =72 as an %ndesira&le co-"rod%ct$ The increasing levels of CO2 in our atmosphere arises fromthe 'actthat the world still, largely relies on using fossil fuels for meeting its energy and transportation needs, andthis will contin%e 'or at least the ne*t 2F8 years$ Today, almost one third G8 o' glo&al =72emissions comes 'rom "ower "lants aro%nd the world$ Transportation vehicles also account foralmostanother third of CO2 emissionlevels (23I in the U0$ =72 is a colorless, odorless, and nearlyworthless gas and %nli6e N7* and 072, =72 has no clearly deJna&le connection to world health"ro&lems or the environment$ Th%s, develo"ing nations and even large, inde"endent nations 'eellittle real "ress%re to res"ond to =72 control initiatives (=72 ta*es, se%estration, etc$$ ?iven theh%ge vol%mes o' =72, its dil%tion when vented to the atmos"here, and the a&sence o' any clearevidence o' "oll%tion, =72 emissions will &e m%ch harder to control$

b E+en i( t#an!o#tation in(#a!t#)t)#e i!nt .e$ in and o( it!el( extend Robe#t! in0: that the lan !ill! o+e# into b#oade# ene#'$ oli$ and !ol+e!

1AR ext4he$ !a$ t#an!o#tation not .e$ b)ta Extend 8#mo# in 1H3 o( 9o2 emi!!ion! ome (#om the 4#an!o#tation !eto#b E+en i( the doe!nt !ol+e /a#min' at all it! e#ei+ed a! '#een /hih mean!the /o#ld ali'n! it!el( /ith 7S inte#e!t! in '#een teh that! Robe#t! :

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A2: Needs other inrastructure to sol"e

a Nat)#al 'a! ieline an be modi(ied to )!e h$d#o'en !ol+e!DOE 0B (United 0tate e"artment o' Energy, Hydrogen elivery 2#2#2C(htt":##www$eere$energy$gov#hydrogenand'%elcells#delivery#c%rrentKtechnology$html

""ro*imately + miles o' hydrogen "i"elines are c%rrently o"erating in the United 0tates (compared tomore than one million miles of natural gas pipelines nationwide$ 7wned &y merchant hydrogen "rod%cers,these pipelines are located where large hydrogen users, such as petroleum refineries and chemical plants, are

concentrated('or e*am"le, in the ?%l' =oast region$Transporting gaseous hydrogen via existing pipelines is currently the lowest-cost option 'or delivering largevol%mes o' hydrogen$ The high initial ca"ital costs o' new "i"eline constr%ction, however, constit%te ama9or &arrier to e*"anding hydrogen "i"eline delivery in'rastr%ct%re$ >esearch is also 'oc%sed onovercoming other technical concerns related to "i"eline transmission, incl%ding the "otential 'or hydrogento em&rittle the steel and welds %sed to 'a&ricate the "i"elinesB the need to control hydrogen "ermeationand lea6sB and the need 'or lower cost, more relia&le, and more d%ra&le hydrogen com"ressiontechnology$One possibility for rapidly expanding the hydrogen delivery infrastructure is to adapt part of the natural gasdelivery infrastructure to accommodate hydrogen$ Converting natural gas pipelines to carry a blend of natural gasand hydrogen(%" to a&o%t 2I hydrogen may require only modest modifications to the pipelineB convertinge*isting nat%ral gas "i"elines to deliver "%re hydrogen may re%ire more s%&stantial modi'ications$=%rrent research and analyses are e*amining &oth a""roaches$nother "ossi&le delivery "rocess involves "rod%cing a li%id hydrogen carrier at a central location,"%m"ing it thro%gh "i"elines to distri&%ted re'%eling stations, and "rocessing the carrier on-site to "rod%cehydrogen 'or dis"ensing at the station$ Ethanol, made 'rom renewa&le reso%rces with near-Aero netgreenho%se gas emissions, is among the hydrogen carriers %nder consideration$


12/48


A2: #uel $tations not key

a 9#o!!-al$ 8!hle$ B and Va')! C-21 (#om inhe#en$ and extend Ko#'e!e :F)el ell +ehile! exi!t ometiti+el$ no/ and !ta#tin' in 201 mao# a)toma.e#! a#e 'oin' to !ta#t ma!!-#od)in' them K)t nobod$ /ant! to b)$ a a#

that the$ ant #e()el 4he lan !ol+e! thi! #oblem and an$ othe# in(#a!t#)t)#ethat /o)ld be #e,)i#ed /ill de+elo alon' /ith the ()el !tation!

b 9ali(o#nia A#o+e!Ka##$ 10(Leith 5arry, 0ta'' riter Hydrogen Highway 'or the East =oast, , /an%ary 2+, 2htt":##www$wired$com#a%to"ia#2##east-coast-hydrogen-highway#Mor all the attention on electric cars these days, several a%toma6ers contin%e develo"ing hydrogen '%elcell vehicles$ Honda is es"ecially enamored with the technology$ ?eneral 1otors "%t the =hevroletE%ino* '%el cell vehicle in a 'ew doAen driveways$ Nissan is leasing a Trail M=O tr%c6 to =oca-=ola$

nd 1ercedes 5enA will o''er the M-=ell to selected c%stomers in E%ro"e and the United 0tates thiss"ring$ 1aAda and Ool6swagen are among the technology.s "ro"onents as well$0o, &eyond giving the 'ew hydrogen cars on the road a "lace to '%el %", the stationscould help solve the

the chicen and egg! problem where the lac of fueling infrastructure &egot a lac6 o' cars and vice-versa$Having tal6ed to several o' the a%to man%'act%rers, the indication that we.ve received is that there has to&e a networ6 o' stations on the east coast 'or them to &ring the cars here, ?rey said$ They want to &ringthe cars here, &%t there.s nowhere to '%el them$That %andary is 'amiliar to Pa%l illiamson o' the University o' 1ontana =ollege o' Technology$There.s no sense having hydrogen cars i' there.s no "lace to re'%el them, illiamson said$ 1ost o' thedevelo"ment is ha""ening in =ali'ornia$ hy 5eca%se they have re'%eling stations$illiamson, whose 'amily owned a service station when he was yo%nger, li6ens the ado"tion o' hydrogentechnology to the early days o' diesel$ e "%t in a "%m" &ehind o%r service station to &egin with, and wehad some cars and tr%c6s here and there, he said$

E+en i( ()el !tation! a#ent .e$ 7S 'o+e#nment ation i! that! both Ro!e in03 a#d! =o) !till de(a)lt to the lan 4he$ o((e# alte#nati+e! e#m do the lanand the alte#nati+e! !ol+e! the be!t t#an!ition to the h$d#o'en eonom$

1AR ext4he$ !a$ F)el !tation! not .e$ b)ta 9#o!! al$ all o( inhe#en$"mao# a)toma.e#! /ill #elea!e F)el ell +ehile!in 201 on!)me#! /ont b)$ )nle!! the$ an #e()elb 9ali(o#nia #o+e! o)# a#')ment that! Ka##$ in 10 the$+e !een bi' '#o/th inh$d#o'en bea)!e o( thei# !tation!

E+en i( the !tation! them!el+e! a#ent .e$ 7SF6 ation !tim)late! #edibilit$that !ol+e! the lan !till !ol+e!

12
http://www.wired.com/autopia/2010/01/east-coast-hydrogen-highway/http://www.wired.com/autopia/2010/01/east-coast-hydrogen-highway/


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9ool exlain the tho)!and! o( /a#min'-a)!ed !$!temi death! that! Kiello10

1AR ext.4he$ !a$ /a#min' not #eala extend Rahm!to#( in B"/a#min' i! #eal and aele#atin' 8ll mao# !ienti(iin!tit)tion! a'#ee that! 79S in 11b 4hei# e+idene onl$ oint! to the ont#a#$ bea)!e the$ #eo#t on the 8e#!ole((et /hih ha! a oolin' e((et When that 'oe! a/a$ /e#e all in t#o)ble

1


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A2: %arming Natural

a Wa#min' i! anth#oo'eni"ne/ oean !t)d$ #o+e! that the$ dont on!ide#Lohn!on C-1B(0cott L$, ssociate riter 'or rs Technica, @et another st%dy con'irms glo&al warming is h%man

ca%sed, !-C-2, htt":##arstechnica$com#science#22#!#yet-another-st%dy-con'irms-glo&al-warming-is-h%man-ca%sed#

7ne o' the ways in which climate scientists eval%ate the role o' anthro"ogenic greenho%se emissions inthe recent warming o' Earth.s climate is to r%n climate models &oth with and witho%t h%man activities$ 5ycom"aring the res%lts o' each to the o&served tem"erat%re trend, these 'inger"rinting st%dies can showhow m%ch o' the tem"erat%re record can &e e*"lained &y nat%ral 'actors (s%ch as solar activity andvolcanic er%"tions$ This has commonly &een a""lied to trends in atmos"heric tem"erat%res (as shown in the 2+ )P==re"ort, where it.s clear thatthe o&served warming wo%ldn.t have ha""ened witho%t rising greenho%se gases$)ncreasingly relia&le records o' ocean tem"erat%res have now allowed some o' these same researchersto con'idently a""ly the techni%e to Earth.s seas$ This is im"ortant &eca%se some 3 "ercent o' all theenergy tra""ed &y h%man greenho%se emissions has ended %" in the ocean, not the atmos"here$ Thetrend with ocean heat content is clearit.s rising$The %estion is whether that rise co%ld &e ca%sed &ynat%ral variations$ >esearchers averaged the res%lts 'rom a n%m&er o' climate models, and com"ared that to glo&altem"erat%re records 'or the %""er + meters o' the ocean 'rom 3! to 333$ The tem"erat%re record is less com"lete 'or thedee" ocean, and its massive vol%me and se"aration 'rom the s%r'ace s%&d%es its res"onse to climatic changes$ )n addition to theglo&al average, they also analyAed each o' the ma9or ocean &asins (North and 0o%th tlantic, North and 0o%th Paci'ic, North and

0o%th )ndian se"arately$ They 'o%nd that the anthro"ogenic 'inger"rint was a""arent in the o&servedtem"erat%re record at the 33 "ercent con'idence level$ That means the o&served warming is &eyond thevaria&ility seen in model sim%lations where greenho%se gases are 6e"t constant, &%t is e*actly what themodels "redict 'or a world in which h%mans change the com"osition o' the atmos"here$ That res%lt sho%ldhardly &e a s%r"rise at this "oint (tho%gh it is im"ortant$ Perha"s itSs more interesting to loo6 at the di''erences &etween ocean

&asins$Thetlantic 7cean is warming considera&ly 'aster than the otherses"ecially the North tlantic ,which is warming at a&o%t do%&le the glo&al average rate$ This &ehavior, too, was sim%lated &y themodels$ This act%ally isn.t the 'irst st%dy to 'ind an anthro"ogenic 'inger"rint in ocean tem"erat%res$ However, "revio%s wor6 waslimited to individ%al ocean &asins and com"arisons with 9%st a co%"le o' climate models$ 5y %tiliAing m%lti"le glo&al data sets o'ocean tem"erat%re (in which researchers have care'%lly acco%nted 'or the vario%s meas%rement methods that have &een %sed anda larger n%m&er o' the models that were %sed 'or the last )P== re"ort, this st%dy has generated the strongest analysis to date$

b Nat)#al han'e! in the limate do not exl)de the o!!ibilit$ (o# h)man-a)!edhan'e!right 2/ames ight, Ph 'rom =ol%m&ia University, ssistant Pro'essor >%tgers University, e"artment o'Earth and Planetary 0ciences hat does "ast climate change tell %s a&o%t glo&al warming 2 %g%st2 htt":##www$s6e"ticalscience$com#climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-"eriod$htm

common s6e"tic argument is that climate has changed naturallyin the "ast, long &e'ore 0UOs and coal-'ired"ower "lants, so there'ore humans cannot be causingglo&al warmingnow$ )nterestingly, thepeer-reviewedresearchinto "ast climate change comes to the opposite conclusion$ To %nderstand this, 'irst yo% have to as6why climate has changed in the "ast$ )t doesnSt ha""en &y magic$ Climate changes when it"s forced tochange$ #hen our planet suffersan energy imbalanceand gains or loses heat, global temperature changes$There are a n%m&er o' di''erent 'orces which can in'l%ence the Earth.s climate$ hen the s%n gets

&righter, the "lanet receives more energy and warms$ hen volcanoes er%"t, they emit "articles into theatmos"here which re'lect s%nlight, and the "lanet cools$ hen there are more greenho%se gases in theatmos"here, the "lanet warms$ These effects are referred to ase*ternal forcings&eca%se &y changing the"lanetSs energy &alance, they 'orce climate to change$ )t is o&vio%sly tr%e thatpast climate change wascaused by natural forcings$ However, to arguethat this means we can"t cause climate change is lie arguing thathumans can"t start bushfires becausein the "ast they"ve happened naturally$ $reenhouse gas increases have caused

1C
http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/06/yet-another-study-confirms-global-warming-is-human-caused/http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/06/yet-another-study-confirms-global-warming-is-human-caused/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-9-5.htmlhttp://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL051106.shtmlhttp://arstechnica.com/science/2012/06/yet-another-study-confirms-global-warming-is-human-caused/http://arstechnica.com/science/2012/06/yet-another-study-confirms-global-warming-is-human-caused/http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-9-5.htmlhttp://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL051106.shtml


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A2: * !ipping point

a Extend &an!on 5 the tiin' oint i! at :0 m /e#e at :00 &)manit$ i!)ttin' 2 m into the atmo!he#e e# $ea# /hih mean! /e ha+e 2 $ea#! to!ol+e

b 4#$ o# die 8FF"e+en i( /e ant !to /a#min' enti#el$ /e an !till !to o)#ont#ib)tion to it and #ed)e the imat o# de+elo the tehnolo'$ to #e+e#!e/a#min'

1AR ext4he$ !a$ a!t the tiin' ointa Extend &an!en 5"#)na/a$ /a#min' at :0 m o( 9o2 /e#e at :00 no/ lanha! 2 $ea#! to !ol+e

b E+en i( /e ant !to /a#min' enti#el$ /e an !till !lo/ it do/n b$ #ed)in'9o2

1B


19/48


A2: %arming is solar acti"ity

a Sola# ati+it$ i! i##ele+ant /ill not de#ea!e and i! o)t/ei'hed b$ 6&6!- 8NDthei# e+idene i! !hodd$Alait Ph, 'ormer N0 astronomer,12

(Phil, -4-2, Ph in astronomy 'rom the University o' Oirginia, 'ormer research astronomer at N0Ss?oddard 0"ace Mlight, wor6ed on H%&&le 0"ace Telesco"e 'or over years, wor6ed in Ed%cation andP%&lic 7%treach at the "hysics and astronomy de"artment at 0onoma 0tate University, Qhiletem"erat%res rise, denialists reach lower,Q iscover 1agaAine,&logs$discovermagaAine$com#&adastronomy#22##4#while-tem"erat%res-rise-denialists-reach-lower#,7: 8-24-2, ldg

5y Q=ycle 28Q he.s re'erring to the solar activity cycle which ).ll get to in a moment$ 5%t 'irst, the most egregio%sly aw'%l thinga&o%t the1ail article is the angle it ta6es on new res%lts released &y The 1et 7''ice, the National eather 0ervice 'or the UL$ Thes%&headline'or the 1ail article is Q1et7''ice releases new 'ig%res which show no warming in 8 yearsQ, which is a &it odd given thatthe very 'irst two "aragra"hs o' the 1et.s "ress release say: 22 is e*"ected to &earo%nd $DC = warmer than thelong-term (3!-33 glo&al averageo' D$ =, with a "redicted li6ely range o' &etween $4D =and $!2 =, according to the 1et 7''ice ann%al glo&al tem"erat%re 'orecast$ The middle o' thisrange /o)ld lae 2012 /ithin theto 10 /a#me!t $ea#!in a series which goes &ac6 to C8$ GEm"hasis mine, &%t done 'or o&vio%s reasons$ )' yo% can s%are that with Qnew'ig%resV show no warmingQ then congratsW @o% can write 'or the 1ail$ The article is so 'allacio%sthat the 1et o''ices decided to"%&lish another release stating clearly that the 1ail article Qincl%des n%mero%s errorsQ, is QmisleadingQ,and that the a%thor chose QV to not '%lly incl%de the answers we gave him Q$nd we.re not done$ &ig "art o' >ose.s1ail article tal6s a&o%t the 0%n.s in'l%ence on climate$ However, the solar activity cycleis something which has &een shown overand again to have very little to do with climate, and is certainly not anywhere near the main driver o'climate change$The 1ail article &ases its arg%ment on some research that may indicate the 0%n will enter a %iet "erioda'ter this ne*t "ea6, and that will cool the Earth$ Mirst, the research is &y no means anywhere near veri'ied, and in 'act at leastone well-res"ected solar "hysicist doesn.t agree with the 'indings () thin6 he.s rightB the wor6 is interesting &%t very, very"reliminary$ 0econd, even i' it.s tr%e, there.s no reason to thin6 it will ca%se an ice age as the 1ail article attestsB that ta6esmany 'actors occ%rring all at once$ lso, the ose getthis ideathat the 0%n will cool %s down Mrom another 1et 7''ice release$ ndg%ess whatgain, that release statesin the 'irst "aragra"h the e*act o""osite o' what >ose claims: New research has 'o%nd that solar o%t"%t is

li6ely to red%ce over the ne*t 3 years &%t that will not s%&stantially delay e*"ected increases in glo&al tem"erat%resca%sed &y greenho%se gases$

b Nat)#al han'e! in the limate do not exl)de the o!!ibilit$ (o# h)man-a)!edhan'e!right 2/ames ight, Ph 'rom =ol%m&ia University, ssistant Pro'essor >%tgers University, e"artment o'Earth and Planetary 0ciences hat does "ast climate change tell %s a&o%t glo&al warming 2 %g%st2 htt":##www$s6e"ticalscience$com#climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-"eriod$htm

common s6e"tic argument is that climate has changed naturallyin the "ast, long &e'ore 0UOs and coal-'ired"ower "lants, so there'ore humans cannot be causingglo&al warmingnow$ )nterestingly, thepeer-reviewedresearchinto "ast climate change comes to the opposite conclusion$ To %nderstand this, 'irst yo% have to as6why climate has changed in the "ast$ )t doesnSt ha""en &y magic$ Climate changes when it"s forced tochange$ #hen our planet suffersan energy imbalanceand gains or loses heat, global temperature changes$There are a n%m&er o' di''erent 'orces which can in'l%ence the Earth.s climate$ hen the s%n gets&righter, the "lanet receives more energy and warms$ hen volcanoes er%"t, they emit "articles into theatmos"here which re'lect s%nlight, and the "lanet cools$ hen there are more greenho%se gases in theatmos"here, the "lanet warms$ These effects are referred to ase*ternal forcings&eca%se &y changing the"lanetSs energy &alance, they 'orce climate to change$ )t is o&vio%sly tr%e thatpast climate change was

15


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caused by natural forcings$ However, to arguethat this means we can"t cause climate change is lie arguing thathumans can"t start bushfires becausein the "ast they"ve happened naturally$ $reenhouse gas increases have causedclimate changemany times in Earth.s history, and we are now adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere at anincreasingly rapid rate$

4#$ o# die 8FF"e+en i( /e ant !to /a#min' enti#el$ /e an !till !to o)#

ont#ib)tion to it and otentiall$ !to the imat

1AR ext4he$ !a$ /a#min' i! !ola# b)ta Extend Alait in 12 /a#min' i! indi!)tabl$ a)!ed b$ 9o2 and i!nt 'oin' tolo/e# an$ time !oon it! i##ele+antb E+en i( !ola# ati+it$ doe! ha+e an e((et extend W#i'ht in 10 that that doe!nt#el)de h)man a)!ed han'e! It! t#$ o# die

20


21/48


A2: 'ther Countries emissions

a L)!t bea)!e othe# o)nt#ie! a#e 'oin' to in#ea!e emi!!ion! doe!nt mean /e!ho)ldnt lo/e# o)#! i( nothin' el!e /e an dela$ the /a#min' imat to theoint /he#e the!e de+eloin' eonomie! inte'#ate '#een teh It! t#$ o# die (o#

the 8FF

b Extend Robe#t! in 0: the lan #e#e!ent! a b#oad !hi(t in 7S ene#'$ oli$that !ho/! 7S ommitment to lean ene#'$ oli$ Othe# o)nt#ie! !ei(iall$9hina /ill !ee )! ta.in' a !e#io)! !tane on limate han'e and 'o /ith it

1AR exta It! t#$ o# die )!t bea)!e othe# o)nt#ie! dont lo/e# emi!!ion! doe!nt mean/e !ho)ldnt an$ #i!. o( !ol+en$ mean! $o) +ote 8FFb 4he lan #eate! a b#oade# !hi(t in 7S oli$ a)!e! othe# o)nt#ie! to ta.e a

mo#e !e#io)! !tane on limate han'e !ei(iall$ 9hina

21


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A2: &hytoplankton sol"e extinction

a Ah$tolan.ton i! not eno)'h to o((-!et 6lobal /a#min'>e+in R 8##i'o, /o%rnalist, 21 No+embe# 200)nternational ee6ly /o%rnal o' 0cience, =ar&on cycle: 1arine mani"%lations, +#C#C,

htt":##www$nat%re$com#nat%re#9o%rnal#vD8#n+!3#'%ll#D8D3a$htmlNevertheless, there are some nota&le concl%sions to &e drawn 'rom this st%dy$ Mirst, altho%gh =72%"ta6e&y "hyto"lan6ton may &e stim%lated in a high-=72world, this negative 'eed&ac6 will only "artly o''sete*"ected increases in atmos"heric =72$ )n 'act, >ie&esell et al$ "er'orm some clever calc%lations to showthat the =72-enhancement e''ect they identi'ied has "ro&a&ly red%ced the rise in atmos"heric =72&y only atm (a&o%t I since the dawn o' the ind%strial revol%tion $

b Extend Kiello 10")!t bea)!e Ah$tolan.ton !to extintion eole a#e d$in'no/ bea)!e o( it and /e ha+e to !to o# the lo!! o( li(e /ill be )!t a! bad

Ah$tolan.ton a#ent !toin' ola# iea! (#om meltin' no/ /hih /illa)!e extintion 9ontin)ed /a#min' /ill a)!e #o (ail)#e! and /a#"that!9)mmin! and 8llen 10

1AR exta Ah$tolan.ton dont !ol+e the$ onl$ o((!et the ha#m! o( 9o2 b$ a little bit4hat! 8##i'o b Extend Kiello 10 tho)!and! o( eole a#e d$in' no/ !$!temi imat mean!$o) !till +ote 8FF We ont#ol the )ni,)ene!! iea! a#e meltin' no/ /hih a)!e extintion#o (ail)#e! and /a# bea)!e o( methane #elea!e that! 9)mmin! and 8llen 10

22


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A2: (lectric cars

Nie 4#$%a 4hi! i! at be!t a )ni,)ene!! miti'ato#"extend &an!en 5 that /e onl$ ha+e 2$ea#! to !ol+e 'lobal /a#min' mean! /e need to do e+e#$thin' /e an in the

meantime 8l!o the$ ant #o+e an$ #ea!on /h$ h$d#o'en t#ade! o(( /ith elet#i+ehile! mean! the#e! onl$ a #i!. that /a#min' .ill! )! allb EV! /o)ld ma.e )! deendent on a)to#ati o)nt#ie! t)#n! thei# oilad+anta'e


24/48


A2: Adaptation sol"es extinction

a Not t#)e"#)na/a$ /a#min' and lo!! o( a'#i)lt)#e4i.ell 9limate #e!ea#he# 200B(7liver, =limate >esearcher, The ?a%rdian, 7n a "lanet D= hotter, all we can "re"are 'or is e*tinction,

C-, htt":##www$g%ardian$co$%6# commentis'ree#2C#a%g## climatechange, 7: 8-24-2, ldge need to get "re"ared 'or 'o%r degrees o' glo&al warming, 5o& atson told the ?%ardian last wee6$ t 'irst sight this loo6s li6e wise co%nsel 'rom the

climate science adviser to e'ra$ 5%t the idea that we co%ld ada"t to a D= rise is a&s%rd and dangero%s$ ?lo&alwarming on this scale wo%ld &e a catastro"he that wo%ld mean, in the immortal words that =hie' 0eattle "ro&a&ly nevers"o6e, Qthe end o' living and the &eginning o' s%rvivalQ 'or h%man6ind$ 7r "erha"sthe &eginning o' o%r e*tinction$ Thecolla"se o' the "olar ice ca"s wo%ld &ecome inevita&le, &ringing long-term sea level rises o' +-C metres$llthe worldSs coastal "lains wo%ld &e lost, com"lete with "orts, cities, trans"ort and ind%strial in'rastr%ct%re,and m%ch o' the worldSs most "rod%ctive 'armland$ The worldSs geogra"hy wo%ld &e trans'ormed m%ch as it was at the end o' thelast ice age, when sea levels rose &y a&o%t 2 metres to create the =hannel, the North 0ea and =ardigan 5ay o%t o' dry land$ eather wo%ld&ecome e*treme and %n"redicta&le, with more 're%ent and severe dro%ghts, 'loods and h%rricanes $ TheEarthSs carrying ca"acity wo%ld &e h%gely red%ced$ 5illions wo%ld%ndo%&tedly die$ atsonSs call was s%""orted &y the governmentSs 'ormerchie' scienti'ic adviser, 0ir avid Ling, who warned that Qi' we get to a 'o%r-degree rise it is %ite "ossi&le that we wo%ld&egin to see a r%naway increaseQ$ This is a remar6a&le %nderstatement$ The climate system is already e*"eriencing

signi'icant 'eed&ac6s, nota&ly the s%mmer melting o' the rctic sea ice$ The more the ice melts, the more s%nshine is a&sor&ed &y the sea, and themore the rctic warms$ nd as the rctic warms, the release o' &illions o' tonnes o' methane F a greenho%se gas+ times stronger than car&on dio*ide over 2 years F ca"t%red %nder melting "erma'rost is already %nderway$ To see how 'ar this "rocess co%ld go, loo6 88$8m years to the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal 1a*im%m, when a glo&al tem"erat%re increase o'!= coincided with the release o' a&o%t 8, gigatonnes o' car&on into the atmos"here, &oth as =72 and as methane 'rom &ogs and sea&edsediments$


25/48


1AR ext4he$ !a$ adatation !ol+e! b)ta No it doe!nt extend 4i.ell in 0B that a'#i)lt)#e /o)ld olla!e meanin' nomo#e (ood 4#$ adatin' to not eatin'Mb E+en i( the$#e #i'ht /e !till !ol+e !o(t o/e# /hih #e+ent! extintion

bea)!e /e 'et o)# mo#al a)tho#it$ ba. to !to #i!e! that! F#iedman in 0B

2


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1AR )in it

6#o) the Wa#min' debate%1 Wa#min' i! a)!ed b$ h)man-ind)ed a#bon dioxide and /ill a)!eextintion 8n$one /ho di!a'#ee! i! ille'itimate O)t/ei'h! n)lea# /a# on

#obabilit$ and ma'nit)de &e#e! mo#e e+ideneDeibel 07%eibel, &rofessor of '( ) *ational #ar College, 2++ Terry ./, 0oreign 1ffairs trategy3 .ogic for 1merican tatecraft! pages 45-67

Minally, there is one ma9or e*istential threatto merican sec%rity (as well as "ros"erity o' a nonviolent nat%re, which,tho%gh 'ar in the '%t%re, demands %rgent action$ )t is the threat o' glo&al warming to the sta&ility o' the climate%"on which all earthly li'e de"end s$ 0cientists worldwide have &een o&serving the gathering o' this threat 'or three decadesnow, and what was once a mere "ossi&ility has "assed thro%gh "ro&a&ility to near certainty$ )ndeed not one o' more than 3articles on climate change "%&lished in re'ereed scienti'ic 9o%rnals 'rom 334 to 24 do%&ted that anthro"ogenic warming is

occ%rring$ )n legitimate scienti'ic circles, writes EliAað Lol&ert, it is virt%ally im"ossi&le to 'ind evidence o'disagreement over the '%ndamentals o' glo&al warming$ Evidence 'rom a vast international scienti'ic monitoring e''ortacc%m%lates almost wee6ly, as this sam"le o' news"a"er re"orts shows: an international "anel "redicts &r%tal dro%ghts, 'loods andviolent storms across the "lanet over the ne*t cent%ryB climate change co%ld literally alter ocean c%rrents, wi"e away h%ge "ortionso' l"ine 0nowca"s and aid the s"read o' cholera and malariaB glaciers in the ntarctic and in ?reenland are melting m%ch 'asterthan e*"ected, andVworldwide, "lants are &looming several days earlier than a decade agoB rising sea tem"erat%res have &eenaccom"anied &y a signi'icant glo&al increase in the most destr%ctive h%rricanesB N0 scientists have concl%ded 'rom directtem"erat%re meas%rements that 28 was the hottest year on record, with 33C a close secondB Earth.s warming climate isestimated to contri&%te to more than 8, deaths and 8 million illnesses each year as disease s"readsB wides"read &leaching'rom Te*as to TrinidadV6illed &road swaths o' corals d%e to a 2-degree rise in sea tem"erat%res$ The world is slowlydisintegrating, concl%ded )n%it h%nter Noah 1et%, who lives 4 miles 'rom the rctic =ircle$ They call it climate changeV&%t we9%st call it &rea6ing %"$ Mrom the 'o%nding o' the 'irst cities some !, years ago %ntil the &eginning o' the ind%strial revol%tion,car&on dio*ide levels in the atmos"here remained relatively constant at a&o%t 2C "arts "er million (""m$ t "resent they areaccelerating toward D ""m, and &y 28 they will reach 8 ""m, a&o%t do%&le "re-ind%strial levels$ Un'ort%nately, atmos"heric=72 lasts a&o%t a cent%ry, so there is no way immediately to red%ce levels, only to slow their increase, we are th%s in 'or signi'icantglo&al warmingB the only de&ate is how m%ch and how serio%s the e''ects will &e$ s the news"a"er stories %oted a&ove show, weare already e*"eriencing the e''ects o' -2 degree warming in more violent storms, s"read o' disease, mass die o''s o' "lants andanimals, s"ecies e*tinction, and threatened in%ndation o' low-lying co%ntries li6e the Paci'ic nation o' Liri&ati and the Netherlands at

a warming o' 8 degrees or less the ?reenland and est ntarctic ice sheets co%ld disintegrate, leading to a sealevel o' rise o' 2 'eet that wo%ld cover North =arolina.s o%ter &an6s, swam" the so%thern third o' Mlorida, and in%ndate1anhattan %" to the middle o' ?reenwich Oillage$ nother catastro"hic e''ect wo%ld &e the colla"se o' the tlantic thermohalinecirc%lation that 6ee"s the winter weather in E%ro"e 'ar warmer than its latit%de wo%ld otherwise allow$ Economist illiam =line once

estimated the damage to the United 0tates alone 'rom moderate levels o' warming at -! "ercent o' ?P ann%allyB severe warmingco%ld cost 4-2! "ercent o' ?P$ 5%t the most 'rightening scenario is r%naway greenho%se warming, &ased on "ositive'eed&ac6 'rom the &%ild%" o' water va"or in the atmos"here that is &oth ca%sed &y and ca%ses hotter s%r'ace tem"erat%res$ Past iceage transitions, associated with only 8- degree changes in average glo&al tem"erat%res, too6 "lace in 9%st decades, even tho%ghno one was then "o%ring ever-increasing amo%nts o' car&on into the atmos"here$ Maced with this s"ecter, the &est one can

concl%de is that h%man6ind.s contin%ing enhancement o' the nat%ral greenho%se e''ect is a6in to "laying >%ssian ro%lettewith the earth.s climate and h%manity.s li'e s%""ort system$ t worst, says "hysics "ro'essor 1arty Ho''ert o' New@or6 University, we.re 9%st going to &%rn everything %"Bwe.re going to heat the atmos"here to the tem"erat%re it was inthe =retaceo%s when there were crocodiles at the "oles, and then everything will colla"se$ %ring the =old ar,astronomer =arl 0agan "o"%lariAed a theory o' n%clear winter to descri&e how a thermon%clear war &etween the Untied 0tates and

the 0oviet Union wo%ld not only destroy &oth co%ntries &%t "ossi&ly end li'e on this "lanet$ ?lo&al warming is the "ost-=old arera.s e%ivalent o' n%clear winterat least as serio%s and considera&ly &etter s%""orted scienti'ically$ 7ver the longr%n it "%ts dangers 'rom terrorism and traditional mil itary challenges to shame$ )t is a threatnot only to the sec%rity and "ros"erityto the United 0tates, &%t "otentially to the contin%ed e*istence o' li'e on this "lanet$

2 Extend S)n!tein in "i##e+e#!ibilit$ #inile mean! $o) de(a)lt 8FF =o)ant ta.e 9o2 o)t o( the atmo!he#e !o e+en i( Wa#min' mi'ht not exi!t o# the8FF mi'ht not be able !ol+e $o) !till +ote 8FF bea)!e $o) ant 'o ba.

2C


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3 4ime(#ame i! i##ele+ant% /a#min' i! haenin' no/ !o one it hit! a oint o( no#et)#n o)# imat! beome ine+itable and /e all die an$/a$ 4hat mean! that i(the#e! e+en a hane that !omebod$ !)#+i+e! thei# imat! o)# 100 ma'nit)deand #obabilit$ mean! $o) +ote a(( bea)!e e+e#$bod$ die! 4hat! K)tle# in 05

: We o)t/ei'h%a ?a'nit)de- Wa#min' a)!e! extintion bea)!e o( #o (ail)#e! /a#! and!hee# #i!e o( teme#at)#e 9#o!! al$ Diebel in that 'lobal /a#min' i!e,)i+alent to n)lea# /inte# and it! haenin' #i'ht no/ Extend 9ambell and9)#ie C that $o) de(a)lt a(( bea)!e #i!. i! #obabilit$ m)ltilied b$ ma'nit)de

b A#obabilit$- It! !iene +! olitial !iene We+e had lent$ o( eonomideline! b)t not a /hole lot o( /a#! Wa#min' i! !ienti(iall$ #o+en to be t#)ethe$ d#oed 79S that !ienti(i #obabilit$ de(e#! a((

4ime(#ame doe!nt matte#-i 8n$ hane that !omebod$ !)#+i+e! thei# n)lea# /a# !ena#io! mean! that

$o) +ote a(( on 100 #obabilit$ o( extintion I( C billion eole die (#om n)lea#/a# the #emainin' 1 billion an #eo)late b)t i( billion a#e ')a#anteed to dieh)manit$ i! done (o#e+e#ii Wa#min' dama'e i! e#manent that mean! that o)# imat i! haenin' no/inte#+enin' ato#! ant !ol+e )nli.e thei# imat

2


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AE8> OI< 8DV8N486E

A2: No &eak 'il

a Extend ?)##a$ and >in' -23 ea. oil i! haenin' no/"/e hit o)# ea. in200 and #od)tion i! (allin' #aidl$

b E+idene o( ea. oil i! mo)ntin' ea. oil i! al#ead$ a #ealit$ in C1 o( the oil-#od)in' /o#ldAe#l 108 %irector of 9rban tudies &rogram at imon 0raser 9niversity 1nthony, 'ntegrating :( into *orth 1merica"s *ext ;obilityTransition,! , 2+=+, p/ =4+=>, http3??wagner/nyu/edu?rudincenter?publications?(C#&@&erl/pdf7 ?? &

es"ite an ongoing de&ate regarding the e*act timing o' a "ea6 in glo&al oil "rod%ction, e+idene i!mo)ntin' that /e a#e on the th#e!hold o( a !)b!tanti+e han'e in the /a$! b$ /hih ()t)#e oil /ill beext#ateds shown in Ta&le 4,the Xlow hanging 'r%it. o' hea and ea!il$ ae!!ible oil ha! la#'el$ beenon!)med 6hanta2005 concl%des that: 7nly 1: o)t o( : oil #od)in' o)nt#ie! and #e'ion! in the/o#ld ontin)e to in#ea!e #od)tion /hile 30 a#e de(initel$ a!t thei# #od)tion ea. and the#emainin' 10 aea# to ha+e (lat o# delinin' #od)tion A)t anothe# /a$ ea. oil i! #eal in C1 o( theoil #od)in' /o#ld /hen /ei'hted b$ #od)tion A#od)in' the /o#ld! #emainin' oil #e!e#+e! /ill

be both mo#e o!tl$ and mo#e #i!.$ than obtainin' a!t oil !)lie! 4ain' the /o#ld! #emainin' oil#e!e#+e! #e,)i#e! ne/ and !)b!tantiall$ di((e#ent oil #od)tion in(#a!t#)t)#e that an oe#ate inext#eme en+i#onment!(e$g$, 'ive miles &elow the sea&ed or in "olar regions$ e"loying this new energy in'rastr%ct%re, and res"onsi&ly decommissioningesta&lished in'rastr%ct%re that will no longer &e %sed once conventional oil reserves &ecome de"leted will increase the "rice o' trans"ort '%els$


29/48


1AR ext4he$ !a$ no ea. oil b)ta Extend ?)##a$ and >in' -23"ea. oil i! haenin' no/ net oil #od)tion i!(allin' in exi!tin' oil (ield!b Extend Ae#l 10"ea. oil i! a #ealit$ in C3 o( the /o#ld

E+en i( /e#e /#on' extend Ga.a#ia that #ed)in' oil deendene /o)ld#e!)lt in a h)'e boo!t (o# 8me#ian o/e#d E+en i( ea. oil i! (al!e !lo/e# #od)tion !till #i!.! 6eo#'ian inl)!ion inN84O

25


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A2: No *+$+,Russia %ar

a R)!!ia /ill atta. 6eo#'ia bea)!e it e#ei+e! !o+e#ei'nt$ o+e# 6eo#'ia"that! 6la!e# in 11

b N84O exan!ion to 6eo#'ia a)!e! R)!!ian ba.la!h a#o!! 9ent#al 8!iaFRIED%ssian &orders, P%tin will "%sh &ac6 as he did when>%ssia invaded ?eorgia last year$5%t s%ch &ehavior in itsel' does not ma6e >%ssia im"erialistic$%ssia, with the 0hanghai =oo"eration 7rganiAation, is already engaged in s%ch an e''ort$Tal6ing to the >%ssians a&o%t U$0$ military activities in =entral sia (and ?eorgia &%ilds m%t%al con'idence &y "romoting trans"arency, &%t it is not so

'ar-'etched to imagine a 'ar more am&itio%s trilateral dialog%e among >%ssia, =hina, and the United 0tates$ 1%ch as the United 0tatesand its E%ro"ean allies share assessments o' threats at the edges o' E%ro"e , "lan 'or coordinated action,and str%ggle to create the necessary machinery to carry it o%t, so can and sho%ld >%ssia and the United0tates do the same in E%rasia with =hinese "artici"ation when a""ro"riate$

1AR exta R)!!ia /ill atta. 6eo#'ia bea)!e it e#ei+e! !o+e#ei'nt$ o+e# 6eo#'ia"that! 6la!e# in 11b E+en i( the$ dont atta. bea)!e o( e#ei+ed !o+e#ei'nt$ the$ll !till atta.bea)!e the$ e#ei+e N84O #e!ene in 9ent#al 8!ia a! a !e)#it$ th#eat that!F#iedlande# 05

E+en i( the#e i! no 7S R)!!ian /a# #elation! .e$ to mode#ate 9ent#al 8!ian!he#e! o( in(l)ene /ith 9hina /hih e!alate!

30


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A2: Domestic 'il increasing

a E+en i( the 7S DOES in#ea!e dome!ti oil #od)tion 7S oil #od)e#!dont oe#ate indeendentl$ (#om the 'lobal eonom$ mean! the$#e a((eted b$hi'he# oil #ie! and lon' time(#ame mean! thi! doe!nt !ol+e o)# imat Extend

?)##a$ and >in'"/o#ld oil i! de#ea!in' no/ /hih i! the .e$ (ato#b Wa#min' i! a #ea!on /h$ thi! i! a bad thin'"thi! beome! a #ea!on to +ote8FF bea)!e oil omanie! /ill lobb$ to #e+ent the lan (#om haenin' i( the$'et mo#e in(l)ene 4hi! !)e#ha#'e! /h$ no/ i! .e$ E+idene o( ea. oil i! mo)ntin' ea. oil i! al#ead$ a #ealit$ in C1 o( the oil-#od)in' /o#ldAe#l 108 %irector of 9rban tudies &rogram at imon 0raser 9niversity 1nthony, 'ntegrating :( into *orth 1merica"s *ext ;obilityTransition,! , 2+=+, p/ =4+=>, http3??wagner/nyu/edu?rudincenter?publications?(C#&@&erl/pdf7 ?? &

es"ite an ongoing de&ate regarding the e*act timing o' a "ea6 in glo&al oil "rod%ction, e+idene i!mo)ntin' that /e a#e on the th#e!hold o( a !)b!tanti+e han'e in the /a$! b$ /hih ()t)#e oil /ill beext#ateds shown in Ta&le 4,the Xlow hanging 'r%it. o' hea and ea!il$ ae!!ible oil ha! la#'el$ been

on!)med 6hanta2005 concl%des that: 7nly 1: o)t o( : oil #od)in' o)nt#ie! and #e'ion! in the/o#ld ontin)e to in#ea!e #od)tion /hile 30 a#e de(initel$ a!t thei# #od)tion ea. and the#emainin' 10 aea# to ha+e (lat o# delinin' #od)tion A)t anothe# /a$ ea. oil i! #eal in C1 o( theoil #od)in' /o#ld /hen /ei'hted b$ #od)tion A#od)in' the /o#ld! #emainin' oil #e!e#+e! /illbe both mo#e o!tl$ and mo#e #i!.$ than obtainin' a!t oil !)lie! 4ain' the /o#ld! #emainin' oil#e!e#+e! #e,)i#e! ne/ and !)b!tantiall$ di((e#ent oil #od)tion in(#a!t#)t)#e that an oe#ate inext#eme en+i#onment!(e$g$, 'ive miles &elow the sea&ed or in "olar regions$ e"loying this new energy in'rastr%ct%re, and res"onsi&ly decommissioningesta&lished in'rastr%ct%re that will no longer &e %sed once conventional oil reserves &ecome de"leted will increase the "rice o' trans"ort '%els$


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32


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68S 48J

33


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A2: %ont und !-

a =e! it /ill"/e !ei(iall$ dediate mone$ (#om the in#ea!e in the 'a! tax to()nd h$d#o'en ()elin' !tation! Fiat !ol+e! thi! a#')ment@ it! in o)# lan text8nd the 'a! tax i! the F7NDIN6 mehani!m to (inane in+e!tment in

t#an!o#tation in(#a!t#)t)#e='le!ia! 2.11(ill The Mederal ?asoline Ta* 5e ?rover Nor%ist.s Ne*t Hostageith the de&t ceiling controversy all &%t resolved, and hostage-ta6ing once again "roven to &e an e''ective strategy 'or achieving conservative"olicy goals, ashington is wondering what the ne*t 'ight will &e$ 5yron Ta% and 5en 0mith in Politico "la%si&ly s"ec%late that the sched%led

0e"tem&er 4 s%nset o' the 'ederal gasoline ta* may &e the c%l"rit 4he 'a! taxin addition to serving im"ortant environmental goals, i!the mean! b$ /hih the (ede#al 'o+e#nment (inane! in+e!tment! in t#an!o#tationin(#a!t#)t)#e$ Traditionally, rea%thoriAing the ta* 'or that "%r"ose has &een %ncontroversial (tho%gh the idea o' raising it to 'inanceneeded in'rastr%ct%re %"grades hasn.t &een &%t in this day and age everything co%ld &e on the ta&le and Ta% ; 0mith re"ort that ?roverNor%ist seems to &e at least considering the idea: )n general, T> has always s%""orted the idea o' ending the 'ederal ta* on gas and havingstates "ay 'or their own roads, Nor%ist told P7e"%&licans nor emocrats wanted to see the co%ntry de'a%lt$ This s%mmer, however, the world has learned that >e"%&licanleaders can sim%ltaneo%sly agree that the de&t ceiling needed to &e raised while also demanding ma9or "olicy concessions in e*change 'oragreeing to raise it$ Trans"ortation =ommittee =hairman /ohn 1ica (>-M


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A2: #raud

a. Gas taxes have low collection costs and are fraud proofWah! 2003- irectoro' the )nstit%te o' Trans"ortation 0t%dies at the University o' =ali'ornia, 5er6eley, =arlson isting%ished Pro'essoro' =ivil ; Environmental Engineering and "ro'essor o' city and regional "lanning$G1artin, 7[EN >E07N0 M7> >)0)N? ?07aina

3$ M%el Ta*es Have elatively Mra%d Proo' ?overnments have ares"onsi&ility to their citiAens to &e concerned a&o%t the cost o' collecting reven%es and the "ossi&ility that reven%es can &e lost to 'ra%dand ta* evasion$ )n com"arison with many other reven%e instr%ments, the '%el ta* is %n%s%ally e''icient in thisregard$ hereas traditional man%al toll collection, 'or e*am"le, inc%rs costs that range 'rom 2I to 28I o' the reven%e "rod%ced, the cost o'administering the '%el ta* is ty"ically only I or 2I o' the reven%e$ M%el ta*es can &e collected 'rom areasona&ly small n%m&er o' '%el wholesalers or at the re'ineries, with the charges &eing "assed along tothe retailers and %ltimately their c%stomers$This 6ee"s costs low and it also red%ces "ros"ects 'or 'ra%d or evasion$ hen the ta* is"aid, a dye is added to the '%el to change its color, ena&ling a%thorities to more readily identi'y '%els 'or sale that have not &een s%&9ected to there%ired ta*$

b. his isn!t a 1""# solvency deficit. $ust because the tax may have

some problems doesn!t mean that it doesn!t alter consumerbehavior or provide tons of revenue

3


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A2: Hurts economy

a. Gas tax 'ey 'ey to *S economy + protects the trade balance andthe dollar

=harles >#a)thamme#, a P%litAer PriAe-winning syndicated col%mnist and commentator, "olitical science and economics, 7*'ord Universityand Harvard (1$$, The ee6ly 0tandard, The Net-[ero ?as Ta*B once-in-a-generation chance -2, 2005le*isThe '%rther advantage o' 6ee"ing it arti'icially high &y means o' a ta* is that it 6ee"s a large "art o' themoney "aid at the "%m" at home in the U$0$ economy$


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A2: Demand inelastic

a. Extend rauthammer 0 and an'iw 02an increase in the tax byone dollar would cause a dramatic shift in consumer behavior.

3ydro%en fuel stations and the emer%in% hydro%en vehiclemar'et independently produce a mar'et and elasticity.

b. Risin% fuel prices of 4""564""7 prove demand is elastic. A %as taxis 'ey to curbin% *S consumption

=harles >#a)thamme#, a P%litAer PriAe-winning syndicated col%mnist and commentator, "oliticalscience and economics, 7*'ord University and Harvard (1$$, The ee6ly 0tandard, The Net-[ero ?as

Ta*B once-in-a-generation chance -2, 2005le*isThe idea that the demand 'or gasoline is inelastic is a myth$ 2+ st%dy done at the University o' =ali'ornia, avis,shows that d%ring the oil shoc6s o' the late 3+s, a 2 "ercent increase in oil "rices "rod%ced a ! "ercent dro" in "er ca"ita gas cons%m"tion$

%ring the 'irst hal' o' this decade, demand "roved more resistant to change--%ntil the dramatic increases o' the last two years$ 5etweenNovem&er 2+ and 7cto&er 2C, the United 0tates e*"erienced the largest contin%al decline indriving history( &illion miles$


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35


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41/48


A$&(C

1 We meet"o)# a'ent i! the 7SF6 no#mal mean! /o)ld ha+e the lan 'oth#o)'h the Dea#tment o( 4#an!o#tation Dont let them laim ab)!e the$ o)ldha+e a!.ed in #o!! ex

2 9o)nte#-inte#"the 8FF an !ei($ an$ a'ent /ithin the 7SF6 inl)din' the7SF6 a! a /hole3 Standa#d!Fi#!t o((en!e

a 8(( Fiat% 4he /hole 7SF6 ha! to ondone the lan and /o#. to'ethe# toma.e it haen I( (o# !ome #ea!on the S)#eme o)#t deide! to #oll the lanba. bea)!e /e didnt (iat them too it /o)ldnt haen

b Rea!onabilit$% I( /e hadnt !aid 7SF6 the$ /o)ld ha+e #ead 4 o# O-Se on)! de(a)lt to 8FF on #ea!onabilit$ that /e ha+e an a'ent /ithin the #e!ol)tion

De(en!e

a No lo!! o( '#o)nd% Ne' an !till #ead a'ent 9o)nte#lan! on )! the$ )!t)!e le!! o( the Fede#al 6o+e#nment not a di((e#ent a#t =o) #obabl$ !ho)ldntbe #eadin' Ai9! and Aoliti! on )! an$/a$ bea)!e the$#e bad (o# ed)ation

b Not a mo+in' ta#'et% 9#o!!-ex he.! ab)!e o( the la#'e ato# When /e!a$ 7SF6 /e mean the /hole 7SF64-S)b!tantial

: Dont +ote on 8SAE9"the$ /o)ld ha+e #)n OSAE9 i( /e &8D !ei(ied #o!!ex he.!

:1


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!,-ncrease means preexisting

1 We meet"a Extend 8!hle$ B that h$d#o'en #e()elin' in(#a!t#)t)#e exi!t! in the #i+ate!eto# /hih mean! the#e i! #e-exi!tin' in(#a!t#)t)#e )!t not on the (ede#al

le+elb Extend 9S6 12 that the 'a! tax al#ead$ exi!t! /e#e )!t in#ea!in' it b$ ;1and a#o#iatin' tho!e ()nd! to h$d#o'en ()el !tation!

2 9o)nte#-inte##etation"In#ea!e doe!nt #e,)i#e #e-exi!teneReinha#dt F U$0$ /%dge 'or the UN)TE 0TTE0 =7U>T 7M PPE THE N)NTH =)>=U)T(0te"hen, /07N >@ >E@N7U0=H, Plainti''s-""ellants, v$ H>TM7>M)NN=)< 0E>O)=E0 ?>7UP, )N=$B H>TM7> M)>E )N0U>N=E =71PN@, e'endants-

""ellees$, le*is

0"eci'ically, we m%st decide whether charging a higher "rice 'or initial ins%rance than the ins%red wo%ld otherwise have &eencharged &eca%se o' in'ormation in a cons%mer credit re"ort constit%tes an Qincrease in any chargeQ within the meaning o' M=>$Mirst, we e*amine the de'initions o' QincreaseQ and Qcharge$Q Hart'ord Mire contends that, limited to their ordinary de'initions, thesewords a""ly only when a cons%mer has "revio%sly &een charged 'or ins%rance and that charge has therea'ter &een increased &ythe ins%rer$ The "hrase, Qhas "revio%sly &een charged,Q as %sed &y Hart'ord, re'ers not only to a rate that the cons%mer has"revio%sly "aid 'or ins%rance &%t also to a rate that the cons%mer has "revio%sly &een %oted, even i' that rate was increased G\\24

&e'ore the cons%mer made any "ayment$ >eynolds disagrees, asserting that, %nder G\3 the ordinary de'inition o' theterm, an increase in a charge also occ%rs whenever an ins%rer charges a higher rate than it wo%ldotherwise have charged &eca%se o' any 'actor--s%ch as adverse credit in'ormation, age, or driving record C--regardless o' whether the c%stomer was "revio%sly charged some other rate$ ccording to >eynolds, he wascharged an increased rate &eca%se o' his credit rating when he was com"elled to "ay a rate higher than the "remi%m rate &eca%sehe 'ailed to o&tain a high ins%rance score$ Th%s, he arg%es, the de'initions o' QincreaseQ and QchargeQ encom"ass the ins%rance

com"aniesS "ractice$ >eynolds is correct$ )ncreaseQ means to ma6e something greater $0ee, e$g$, 7M7> EN?@ (2d ed$ 3C3 (QThe action, "rocess, or 'act o' &ecoming or ma6ing greaterB a%gmentation, growth, enlargement,e*tension$QB E50TE>S0 NE 7>@ 7M 1E>)=N EN? EN?@ (2d ed$ 3C3 (QThe "rice re%ired or demanded 'or service rendered, or (less %s%ally 'or goods s%""lied$QBE50TE>S0 NE 7>@ 7M 1E>)=N EN?


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new challengesand societal "ro&lems will need to &e addressin order to maintain and increase the world.sstandard o' living$ The Evol%tion o' Trans"ortation F the 1otor =ar Having a solid gras" o' what trans"ortation is, its history andthe o%r res"onsi&ility to its '%t%re, i'6in, 22: this is why most governments are concerned in develo"ing new energy so%rces 'ortheir trans"orts networ6$ 5%t, since there is a mar6et 'or an energy alternative, there are many alternatives, com"eting each other to &ecomethe ne*t "aradigm in the economyB among them, it can &e 'o%nd that D reso%rces are the strongest in the %est: nat%ral oil, electricity, &io'%els andhydrogen$

:3
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2060304http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2060304http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2060304http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2060304


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2 9o)nte#-inte##etation"4#an!o#tation in(#a!t#)t)#e inl)de! an$thin'mana'ed b$ the Do4 that (ailitate! the mo+ement o( eole and o# 'ood!?int et al 8#'onne National


45/48


!,.as tax /0/ in"estment

1 We meet% /e )!e the aital #od)ed +ia the 'a! tax to in+e!t in h$d#o'en()elin' !tation!8nd the 'a! tax i! the F7NDIN6 mehani!m to (inane in+e!tment in

t#an!o#tation in(#a!t#)t)#e='le!ia! 2.11(ill The Mederal ?asoline Ta* 5e ?rover Nor%ist.s Ne*t Hostageith the de&t ceiling controversy all &%t resolved, and hostage-ta6ing once again "roven to &e an e''ective strategy 'or achieving conservative"olicy goals, ashington is wondering what the ne*t 'ight will &e$ 5yron Ta% and 5en 0mith in Politico "la%si&ly s"ec%late that the sched%led

0e"tem&er 4 s%nset o' the 'ederal gasoline ta* may &e the c%l"rit 4he 'a! taxin addition to serving im"ortant environmental goals, i!the mean! b$ /hih the (ede#al 'o+e#nment (inane! in+e!tment! in t#an!o#tationin(#a!t#)t)#e$ Traditionally, rea%thoriAing the ta* 'or that "%r"ose has &een %ncontroversial (tho%gh the idea o' raising it to 'inanceneeded in'rastr%ct%re %"grades hasn.t &een &%t in this day and age everything co%ld &e on the ta&le and Ta% ; 0mith re"ort that ?roverNor%ist seems to &e at least considering the idea: )n general, T> has always s%""orted the idea o' ending the 'ederal ta* on gas and havingstates "ay 'or their own roads, Nor%ist told P7e"%&licans nor emocrats wanted to see the co%ntry de'a%lt$ This s%mmer, however, the world has learned that >e"%&licanleaders can sim%ltaneo%sly agree that the de&t ceiling needed to &e raised while also demanding ma9or "olicy concessions in e*change 'oragreeing to raise it$ Trans"ortation =ommittee =hairman /ohn 1ica (>-M


46/48


47/48


Dont let them !a$ that /e+e (ailed to )hold o)# b)#den!"debate i! a (lexibleati+it$ /ith inte##etation! o( #)le! that han'e o+e# time We meet o)#ontemo#a#$ b)#den! ma.e them )!ti($ /h$ thei# inte##etation i! be!t

:


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Data

1 We meet@ o)# lan #e+ent! 'lobal /a#min' b$ )ttin' 9o2 emi!!ion! b$ Cmillion o)nd! and #e+entin' (#om #eahin' :0 m

2 9o)nte#-inte##etation"e+idene !ho)ld be e+al)ated b$ the anal$!i! behind it

3 Standa#d!"a 6#o)nd"the$ eliminate o#e 8FF !ena#io! inl)din' b)t not limited to/a#min' eon mo!t /a#! and >#iti.al 8FF!b Eliti!m"data that meet! thei# inte##etation i! #a#e at be!t meanin' the eole/ho ha+e ae!! to the mo!t and (ine!t #e!o)#e! /ill !e)#e that data not theeole /ho /o#. the ha#de!t Ed)ation"#o)nd! )nde# thei# inte##etation /o)ld de+ol+e into /ho ha! thedata and /hoe+e# doe!nt meet thei# inte##etation beome! di!o)nted a!i##ational /hih i!nt #eal /o#ld

: ?a.e them exlain /hat a!et! o( o)# e+idene doe!nt meet thei#inte##etation that! the onl$ /a$ to he. ba. ab)!e

Reet the a#')ment not the team and de(a)lt to #ea!onabilit$"the#e! no /a$/e o)ld #edit )!t an$ a#bit#a#$ inte##etation (o# /hat !t#on' e+idene i! thatmean! that $o) the )d'e 'et to e+al)ate /hat $o) (eel i! !t#on'l$ !)o#tede+idene in the #o)nd

2ac case answers

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