33% annual jump in canadian condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the gta. 84% of...

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Page 1: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever
Page 2: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

Over 62,000

condominium apartments

started occupancy in

2015.

84% of condos in

Canada were sold at

completion, the highest

rate in seven years.

33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo

Apartment Completions in 2015

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Annual Condominium Apartment Completions & Percent of Condos Sold Canada: 1990 to 2015

Annual Condo Apartment Completions % of Condos Sold at Completion

Source: CMHC

Page 3: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

2015 was 2nd highest

year for new condo

sales in the GTA.

84% of new condos

sold (in all phases of

development), the

highest absorption

rate ever.

Toronto Condo Market Remains Very Strong

14,6

86

20,2

08

14,1

06

19,2

84

25,9

48

16,6

91

13,6

16

19,6

28

20,4

70

70%

78% 78% 78%

79%

81%

84%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annual New Condo Sales & Percent of the Active Market AbsorbedGTA: 2006 to 2015

New Condo Sales

Percent Sold

Source: Urbanation Inc.

Page 4: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

Q1-2016 new condo

sales up 37% annually.

Unsold inventory at the

lowest level since Q3-

2011.

3% to 4% Annual Price Growth in the GTA

New Condo Market for Three Years

4,8

11

8,6

17

5,8

40

6,6

80

5,6

78

4,4

54

2,9

60

3,5

99

2,7

50

3,8

41

2,8

74

4,1

51

4,9

42

5,2

76

4,2

31

5,1

79

4,1

07

6,0

92

3,9

05

6,2

96

5,6

21

$582

$440

$460

$480

$500

$520

$540

$560

$580

$600

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Q1

-11

Q2

-11

Q3

-11

Q4

-11

Q1

-12

Q2

-12

Q3

-12

Q4

-12

Q1

-13

Q2

-13

Q3

-13

Q4

-13

Q1

-14

Q2

-14

Q3

-14

Q4

-14

Q1

-15

Q2

-15

Q3

-15

Q4

-15

Q1

-16

Quarterly New Condominium Apartment Sales & Index PricingGreater Toronto Area: Q1-2011 to Q1-2016

Sales Index Price (psf)

Source: Urbanation Inc 20,400 sales, +4%

Page 5: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

Q1-2016 condo prices up

8.1% per TREB, up 8.4%

on a per-square-foot basis

per Urbanation.

Sales-to-listings ratio at

highest level since 2010.

GTA Condo Resale Transactions up 16%

Year-over-Year in 2015 (+21% in Q1-2016) 4,2

17

4,6

43

4,4

12

3,9

89

3,9

31

5,0

56

3,4

15

2,9

41

3,1

94

4,6

89

4,2

16

3,5

73

3,5

77

5,3

44

4,8

50

4,0

48

4,0

65

6,4

43

5,5

74

4,6

18

4,9

22

$467

$350

$370

$390

$410

$430

$450

$470

$490

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Q1

-11

Q2

-11

Q3

-11

Q4

-11

Q1

-12

Q2

-12

Q3

-12

Q4

-12

Q1

-13

Q2

-13

Q3

-13

Q4

-13

Q1

-14

Q2

-14

Q3

-14

Q4

-14

Q1

-15

Q2

-15

Q3

-15

Q4

-15

Q1

-16

Quarterly Condominium Apartment Resale Transactions & Index PricingGreater Toronto Area: Q1-2011 to Q1-2016

Resales Resale Index Price (psf)

Source: Urbanation Inc 20,700 sales, +16%

Page 6: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

Over 27,000 rental

through MLS in 2015, up

19% y/y. Nearly 7,000

more rental units traded

than resale units traded.

Q1-2016 index rents up

6.8% per Urbanation.

19% Annual Growth in Rented Condo

Transactions in the GTA Last Year

2,8

01

3,7

39

4,3

47

2,8

96

3,0

77

4,4

39

4,6

40

3,2

94

3,8

54

5,3

15

6,4

53

3,9

99

4,4

63

6,7

08

7,1

32

4,4

62

4,9

38

8,2

00

8,3

98

5,6

19

6,1

63

$2.53

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.40

$2.50

$2.60

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Q1

-11

Q2

-11

Q3

-11

Q4

-11

Q1

-12

Q2

-12

Q3

-12

Q4

-12

Q1

-13

Q2

-13

Q3

-13

Q4

-13

Q1

-14

Q2

-14

Q3

-14

Q4

-14

Q1

-15

Q2

-15

Q3

-15

Q4

-15

Q1

-16

Quarterly Condominium Apartment Rental Transactions & Index RentsGreater Toronto Area: Q1-2011 to Q1-2016

Total Leases

Index Rents (psf)

Source: Urbanation Inc 27,155, +19%

Page 7: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

7

Foreign Buyers Create Real Estate Bubble Risk Toronto Sun Priced Out By Foreign Buyers CTV News Vancouver Foreign Investors Avoid Taxes by Buying Real Estate in Canada Globe and Mail Offshore Buyers Swap Up Newer Condos in Toronto Reuters

Foreign Buyers Are Taking Over Canadian Real Estate… Huffington Post

Definitely… Maybe

Page 8: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

Non-Resident Owned Condos Increase in Downtown Toronto

Source: Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corporation Rental Market Survey, 2014 & 2015

4.3

1.1 1.2 1.5

2.3

5.8

1.5

1.1

2.6

3.2

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Centre West East North GTA

2014 2015

Page 9: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

Higher Concentration of Foreign Owners in Newer Condos

Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation Rental Market Survey, 2015

1.2 1.4

3.0

7.5

3.3

Toronto CMA

3.0 2.3

4.3

10.1

5.8

Toronto Centre

Higher Concentration of Foreign Owners in Newer Condos

Page 10: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

2.9%

5.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

TRIDEL FOREIGN BUYERS IN GTA

2005-2014 2015

Source: Tridel Market Research, May 2016

Page 11: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

Foreign investors in Montreal are not driving up the market

Page 12: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

Ilan G. Gewurz, 2016 Quartier Pointe Nord

Page 13: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

A WATERFRONT SITE JUST MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN

Page 14: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever
Page 15: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever
Page 16: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

GREEN SPACE & WATERFONT ACCESS

Page 17: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

SINCE 2011 WE’VE DELIVERED 800 CONDOS AND CURRENTLY HAVE ANOTHER 200 UNDER CONSTRUCTION

Page 18: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

Urban Analytics has estimated that new condo prices have

declined $30 to $50 psf over the past 18 months.

Calgary Condo Sales hit Multi-Quarter Low

in Q1-2016, Unsold Inventory Elevated

Page 19: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

Downtown and the west side of Vancouver priced at $1,100

psf, up from $750 to $800 psf just two years ago.

Vancouver CMA New Condo Sales up 59% in

Q1-2016, Inventory down 143% Annually

Page 20: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

20

BAYSIDE

Page 21: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

21

BAYSIDE

Page 22: 33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the GTA. 84% of new condos sold (in all phases of development), the highest absorption rate ever

BAYSIDE