33% annual jump in canadian condo...2015 was 2nd highest year for new condo sales in the gta. 84% of...
TRANSCRIPT
Over 62,000
condominium apartments
started occupancy in
2015.
84% of condos in
Canada were sold at
completion, the highest
rate in seven years.
33% Annual Jump in Canadian Condo
Apartment Completions in 2015
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Annual Condominium Apartment Completions & Percent of Condos Sold Canada: 1990 to 2015
Annual Condo Apartment Completions % of Condos Sold at Completion
Source: CMHC
2015 was 2nd highest
year for new condo
sales in the GTA.
84% of new condos
sold (in all phases of
development), the
highest absorption
rate ever.
Toronto Condo Market Remains Very Strong
14,6
86
20,2
08
14,1
06
19,2
84
25,9
48
16,6
91
13,6
16
19,6
28
20,4
70
70%
78% 78% 78%
79%
81%
84%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
82%
84%
86%
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual New Condo Sales & Percent of the Active Market AbsorbedGTA: 2006 to 2015
New Condo Sales
Percent Sold
Source: Urbanation Inc.
Q1-2016 new condo
sales up 37% annually.
Unsold inventory at the
lowest level since Q3-
2011.
3% to 4% Annual Price Growth in the GTA
New Condo Market for Three Years
4,8
11
8,6
17
5,8
40
6,6
80
5,6
78
4,4
54
2,9
60
3,5
99
2,7
50
3,8
41
2,8
74
4,1
51
4,9
42
5,2
76
4,2
31
5,1
79
4,1
07
6,0
92
3,9
05
6,2
96
5,6
21
$582
$440
$460
$480
$500
$520
$540
$560
$580
$600
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q1
-11
Q2
-11
Q3
-11
Q4
-11
Q1
-12
Q2
-12
Q3
-12
Q4
-12
Q1
-13
Q2
-13
Q3
-13
Q4
-13
Q1
-14
Q2
-14
Q3
-14
Q4
-14
Q1
-15
Q2
-15
Q3
-15
Q4
-15
Q1
-16
Quarterly New Condominium Apartment Sales & Index PricingGreater Toronto Area: Q1-2011 to Q1-2016
Sales Index Price (psf)
Source: Urbanation Inc 20,400 sales, +4%
Q1-2016 condo prices up
8.1% per TREB, up 8.4%
on a per-square-foot basis
per Urbanation.
Sales-to-listings ratio at
highest level since 2010.
GTA Condo Resale Transactions up 16%
Year-over-Year in 2015 (+21% in Q1-2016) 4,2
17
4,6
43
4,4
12
3,9
89
3,9
31
5,0
56
3,4
15
2,9
41
3,1
94
4,6
89
4,2
16
3,5
73
3,5
77
5,3
44
4,8
50
4,0
48
4,0
65
6,4
43
5,5
74
4,6
18
4,9
22
$467
$350
$370
$390
$410
$430
$450
$470
$490
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Q1
-11
Q2
-11
Q3
-11
Q4
-11
Q1
-12
Q2
-12
Q3
-12
Q4
-12
Q1
-13
Q2
-13
Q3
-13
Q4
-13
Q1
-14
Q2
-14
Q3
-14
Q4
-14
Q1
-15
Q2
-15
Q3
-15
Q4
-15
Q1
-16
Quarterly Condominium Apartment Resale Transactions & Index PricingGreater Toronto Area: Q1-2011 to Q1-2016
Resales Resale Index Price (psf)
Source: Urbanation Inc 20,700 sales, +16%
Over 27,000 rental
through MLS in 2015, up
19% y/y. Nearly 7,000
more rental units traded
than resale units traded.
Q1-2016 index rents up
6.8% per Urbanation.
19% Annual Growth in Rented Condo
Transactions in the GTA Last Year
2,8
01
3,7
39
4,3
47
2,8
96
3,0
77
4,4
39
4,6
40
3,2
94
3,8
54
5,3
15
6,4
53
3,9
99
4,4
63
6,7
08
7,1
32
4,4
62
4,9
38
8,2
00
8,3
98
5,6
19
6,1
63
$2.53
$2.00
$2.10
$2.20
$2.30
$2.40
$2.50
$2.60
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Q1
-11
Q2
-11
Q3
-11
Q4
-11
Q1
-12
Q2
-12
Q3
-12
Q4
-12
Q1
-13
Q2
-13
Q3
-13
Q4
-13
Q1
-14
Q2
-14
Q3
-14
Q4
-14
Q1
-15
Q2
-15
Q3
-15
Q4
-15
Q1
-16
Quarterly Condominium Apartment Rental Transactions & Index RentsGreater Toronto Area: Q1-2011 to Q1-2016
Total Leases
Index Rents (psf)
Source: Urbanation Inc 27,155, +19%
7
Foreign Buyers Create Real Estate Bubble Risk Toronto Sun Priced Out By Foreign Buyers CTV News Vancouver Foreign Investors Avoid Taxes by Buying Real Estate in Canada Globe and Mail Offshore Buyers Swap Up Newer Condos in Toronto Reuters
Foreign Buyers Are Taking Over Canadian Real Estate… Huffington Post
Definitely… Maybe
Non-Resident Owned Condos Increase in Downtown Toronto
Source: Canadian Housing and Mortgage Corporation Rental Market Survey, 2014 & 2015
4.3
1.1 1.2 1.5
2.3
5.8
1.5
1.1
2.6
3.2
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Centre West East North GTA
2014 2015
Higher Concentration of Foreign Owners in Newer Condos
Source: Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation Rental Market Survey, 2015
1.2 1.4
3.0
7.5
3.3
Toronto CMA
3.0 2.3
4.3
10.1
5.8
Toronto Centre
Higher Concentration of Foreign Owners in Newer Condos
2.9%
5.5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
TRIDEL FOREIGN BUYERS IN GTA
2005-2014 2015
Source: Tridel Market Research, May 2016
Foreign investors in Montreal are not driving up the market
Ilan G. Gewurz, 2016 Quartier Pointe Nord
A WATERFRONT SITE JUST MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN
GREEN SPACE & WATERFONT ACCESS
SINCE 2011 WE’VE DELIVERED 800 CONDOS AND CURRENTLY HAVE ANOTHER 200 UNDER CONSTRUCTION
Urban Analytics has estimated that new condo prices have
declined $30 to $50 psf over the past 18 months.
Calgary Condo Sales hit Multi-Quarter Low
in Q1-2016, Unsold Inventory Elevated
Downtown and the west side of Vancouver priced at $1,100
psf, up from $750 to $800 psf just two years ago.
Vancouver CMA New Condo Sales up 59% in
Q1-2016, Inventory down 143% Annually
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