64th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference

NOAA Tropical ProgramDelivering on the Promise of Partnerships

Jack Hayes NOAA Assistant Administrator &

Director, National Weather Service

March 1, 2010Savannah, GA

Hur

rican

e Im

prov

emen

ts

Mee

ting

the

Nat

ion’

s N

eeds

2

Outline

Constants & ChangesOur PartnershipsAreas of Emphasis

NO

AA

is th

e na

tiona

l lea

d fo

r hur

rican

e fo

reca

sts

and

war

ning

s

Hur

rican

e Im

prov

emen

ts

Mee

ting

the

Nat

ion’

s N

eeds

3

Constants & Changes

Science is a Priority for President ObamaNOAA Climate ServiceFY 11 Request:

$1 Billion for NWS$4M investment in

Coastal Hazard Mitigation

Hur

rican

e Im

prov

emen

ts

Mee

ting

the

Nat

ion’

s N

eeds

4

Constants & Changes HFIP Budget

FY 2009 Supplemental $17 million supplemental spent

FY 2010 Appropriations $23 million

FY 2011 President’s Budget Request

$23 million

Hur

rican

e Im

prov

emen

ts

Mee

ting

the

Nat

ion’

s N

eeds

5

Constants & Changes House/Senate Initiatives

Senate (S.1485):Objectives:

Improve understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones

Develop resilient infrastructureMitigate impacts on coastal populationsProvide training for next generation researchers

and forecasters

Hur

rican

e Im

prov

emen

ts

Mee

ting

the

Nat

ion’

s N

eeds

6

Constants & Changes House/Senate Initiatives

House (H.R. 327):Objectives:

NOAA and NSF to set research objectivesAssemble experts focused on:

Improving tropical cyclone forecasting, resilient infrastructure, mitigating impacts on coastal communities, providing grants for research

Hur

rican

e Im

prov

emen

ts

Mee

ting

the

Nat

ion’

s N

eeds

7

Constants & Changes Continued Use of Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks-

Tool for information, education, and preparedness Increasing use of high-res (T382) CFS coupled model

forecast runs Changes for the 2010 Season

NHC and CPHC to provide greater lead time in Watches and Warnings

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale becomes operational

Hur

rican

e Im

prov

emen

ts

Mee

ting

the

Nat

ion’

s N

eeds

8

Our Partnerships

Expediting successful transition of research to operations

Example: success with advanced data assimilation testing led to changes in NCEP plans for operational data assimilation

Continuing to support Joint Hurricane Testbed, along with Developmental Test Center and Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

NUOPC: AF, Navy, NASA, Academia

Computing: DOE, NSF

Research: NSF, Navy, NCAR, NASA, Academia

Hur

rican

e Im

prov

emen

ts

Mee

ting

the

Nat

ion’

s N

eeds

9

Our PartnershipsInvestment in the Future

HFIP provides the basis for NOAA co-leading with NSF, Navy and others a national effort to: Develop a National Hurricane Research Agenda to provide new

science Apply new science and technology to the operational hurricane

and storm surge warning and forecast problem Significantly improve guidance to NHC (JTWC, CPHC) for

hurricane track and intensity forecasts

Significantly improve NOAA’s forecast services for tropical storms and hurricanes

through improved hurricane forecast science and technology

Hur

rican

e Im

prov

emen

ts

Mee

ting

the

Nat

ion’

s N

eeds

10

Our PartnershipsRecent Engagement

UM/UW effort for NSF Science and Technology Center US Navy, and DOI Minerals Management Service 3

year National Ocean Partnership Program for Hurricane Intensity Research $2.5M for first year

Penn State, Wisconsin, NCAR, others in area of High Resolution Modeling

ONR and NRL on Hurricane Forecast Technology Development

University of Miami, Florida International and University of South Alabama on Hurricane intensity research

Directed Research on ocean interaction (URI), ensemble data assimilation (CIRA/CSU) and cloud products (UMD)

Hur

rican

e Im

prov

emen

ts

Mee

ting

the

Nat

ion’

s N

eeds

11

Areas of EmphasisScience and Technology Infusion:

Reduce Track and Intensity ErrorHFIP Goal: reduction by 50% Track error improvements

Advanced data assimilation techniques and use of airborne radar data to initialize vortex both showing great promise

Hur

rican

e Im

prov

emen

ts

Mee

ting

the

Nat

ion’

s N

eeds

12

The Future

NWS Strategic Plan 2035

Draft Undergoing Internal Review Issue in Spring for Public Comment

Need your input!