Acquisition and TE in 2025 & Beyond…Meeting the Pace of Need

~Fast, Agile, and Combat Credible~

Maj Gen (ret) Matt “Zap” Molloy, USAFDirector of Business Development, Dell Technologies (Federal)

2

Discuss why agility & adaptiveness in acquisition & test are an imperative given the 2025+ strategic environment. Describe how prototyping, experimentation and other non-traditional testing approaches are essential to expediting the fielding of combat-credible warfighting capabilities.

Purpose

3

• My Background

• The 2025 Environment … • The Strategic Environment; the Acquisition Environment

• Respond & Adapt … • Experimentation & Prototyping• Advanced Data Analytics• M&S

• Takeaways & Closing Thoughts

• Q&A

Flight Plan

4

Current Environment…Risky B-ness• Current acquisition practices put warfighting readiness at risk• Compounding risk is the cumulative effect of:−Pace of Technology

Its nature & manifestation

−The Threat “Pace is the issue. So we move into 5th Generation warfare,

we are outpaced, so we’re focusing on speed. We enjoy an margin of superiority now, but that’s perishable and if we don’t pick up speed in our acquisition system we’re going to be challenged…”

- ADM Richardson, CNO

5

Marching Orders• DoD’s response:−SECDEF’s Reformation of DoD Business Practices

Years of prescriptive regulations, policies, and legislation thwart rapid, timely delivery of an acquisition program

“Think big, think differently. Good luck”

−The Nature of the Next-Generations Weapons Portfolio “We’re moving from wars of attrition to wars of cognition”

- CSAF Leveraging 4th Industrial Revolution technologies

provides an asymmetric offset strategy…

6

Human-Machine Collaboration

Network-Enabled, Cyber-Hardened Weapons

7

Pace of Need – Traditional Acquisition Mismatch

• The classic acquisition “waterfall” approach is often insufficient and inefficient

• But...the need is NOW, not ten years from NOW (risk)− System/capability obsolescence prior to fielding (risk)

Many years…

8

So…What Do We Do?!

•Breaking the Long Linear Acq & TE Chain

How?

Rapid Solutioning to Retire Risk In front of major acquisition decisions

9

So…What Do We Do?!

Old School’s Good School: Prototyping & Experimentation

Zero-in on the requirementsTo LEARN Fast:

Inform operational utilityTech feasibilityProduciblityQuantify risks

Expedite fielding of needed capabilities

Adapt during the development cycle to emerging / disruptive technologies

10

The Old School’s a Good School

•Acquisition history smiles on system prototyping. . . followed by experimentation on ranges…followed by quick, agile design iterations

0

5

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

CAPABILITY INCREASECapability Increase

Drawing Board Dev

22 Months

First Flight

11

The Old School’s a Good School

• Competitive Prototyping & “Fly before you buy”May 1970, USAF issues detailed RFP

Long loiter Low speed maneuverability Massive cannon Extreme survivability Low cost

May - June 1972, first flights, strong performance from both vendors

Oct 1975, first production A-10 flies, deliveries commence Mar 1976

12

The Old School’s a Good School

• Competitive & Rapid Prototyping & “Fly before you buy”

Jan 1972: USAF issues RFP for highly maneuverable, lightweight fighter aircraft with low target price

Dec 1974: Separate and distinct flight test programs begin; both programs lauded for exceptional performance and capability

13

The Old School’s a Good School

• Competitive & Rapid Prototyping & “Fly before you buy”

• Keys to a Successful Rapid Acquisition Strategy:− “Own it!”

Data, property, tools & code− “REALLY Own It”

…Risk & accountability

14

Be Willing to Fail Fast…and Succeed Even Faster

“When we have the first experiment really fail, and we can learn from it, I’m buying the cake.”

“One of the things we need to get back to as a service is what I call ‘productive failure,’ where you try something, you learn from it.”

− Secretary of the Air Force Heather Wilson

15

The Old School’s a Good School

• Prototype to: Establish solid, hardware baseline…1980’s

16

The Old School’s a Good School

• Establish solid, hardware baseline…then grow capability with time & technology...2000’s

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiwnLfu09vYAhXIylQKHdkcCE4QjRwIBw&url=https://www.universalorlando.com/web/en/us/things-to-do/rides-attractions/skull-island-reign-of-kong/index.html&psig=AOvVaw06gx0oZ8Lj7XGlLHsp5N6W&ust=1516163388130964

17

Prototyping

• Multiple entry points for competitive prototypes Early Prototypes Vs Mature designs:

Milestones

BA C

IOC

Requ

irem

ents

Acqu

isiti

onTe

stin

g

Requirements Documents; Increased Detail and Complexity

Requirements Documents; Increased Detail and Complexity

Developmental/Operational Testing

Contracting Actions

18

Prototyping (Still) Works Today

• 5th-Generation Aerial Target “5GAT”− DOT&E-led prototyping effort, focused in innovative and

disruptive technologies, tools, and business processes with the goal of delivering two 5th generation, unmanned targets for advanced test and training needs:Representative: size, stealthiness, speed, maneuverability, EA

19

5GAT Prototype

• “Old School” Approach:− Collaboration

AFMC/AFRL (Aero, materials, contracting, RCS…)NAVAIR (RCS & Electronic attack) AEDC (Aero, remote control models, CFD, propulsion, and tunnel tests)USAFA (Aero, remote control models, water tunnel tests, & Cadet eductn)USA (Army Grnd & Aerial Target Control Station (AGATCS) with the Multi

Service Data Link (MSDL)) AT&L (Rapid acquisition, Developmental T&E, and DARPA) Very light jet industries & aerial target manufacturers

20

5GAT Prototype

• “Old School” Approach:− Stable & demo-focused requirements:

1. High confidence cost data2. Meet RCS goals for advanced 5th gen testing3. Demonstrate required aero performance4. Integrate and demo advanced EA capability

− Agile Contracting 14 20 months from contract to ground test …21 27 months to 1st flight

21

5GAT Prototype

• “Old School” Approach:− Entirely gov’t owned design, tools, data, & code

− Simple parts & reduced number of tools

− Design simplicity & soft tooling

22

5GAT Prototype

• “Old School” Approach:− Reduced parts, simple parts, soft tooling = Order of magnitude

savings

23

5GAT Prototype

• Approach:− Small business, woman-owned

24

Prototyping, Experimentation, Agility is the Future

• Key Ingredient: Partnering …with Industry, businesses, and entrepreneurs

"DIUx, the Strategic Capabilities Office, and the Rapid Capabilities Offices should become standard practice, not work-arounds to the regular system. And we need these innovations for Major Defense Acquisition Programs, not just Science and Technology efforts.”

− Sen John McCain (R-Ariz)

25

Acquisition/TE Innovation “Wins”

Pivotal Labs “Kessel Run”

26

27

TraditionalOT&E:

SignificantCapability

Oversight

ACAT

F-35 “First Steps” Towards AgileF-35 Follow-on Modernization (FoM): Transitioning to "Continuous Capability Development and Delivery" (C2D2)

• Leverage non-traditional acq & test processes such as Agile (software)− Switch between waterfall (traditional) or Agile as situation dictates− Use RALOT-type analysis process to determine Level of OT

Major capability drops, net-cumulative increases, new mission areas = Independent OT&E

Baseline Capability

Integrated Test (CT/DT/OT)MAJCOM-Level?

OT&E

Integrated Test (CT/DT/OT)MAJCOM-Level?

2019 2020 Time 2021 2022 2023

Capability drops

1

3

5

79

11

13 1517

19 2123

9

25

28

F-35 “First Steps” in Advanced Analytics and Big Data

•F-35 Follow-on Testing (C2D2)−Test Resource Management Center (TRMC) is using

the F-35 as a pathfinder to create big data capture and analytical tools: QRIP (Quick Reaction Instrumentation Package) RAPIDS (Rapid, Analysis, Processing, Independent,

Deployable, System) KM (knowledge Management)

29

Exponential Growth of Aircraft Bus Data Rates

10 Gbps

10 Kbps

100 Mbps

1 Gbps

Airc

raft

Bus

Dat

a R

ates

Analog (0 bps)

30

F-35 Data EvolutionOT Today

Parallel Data

Ingest 10 minutes

(multiple aircraft)

Video/Data at Post-Mission Debrief

Analysis

Note: Numbers reflect single 2 hour flight mission

30 seconds

Analysis

1-2 hours (per aircraft)

10 minutes 4-5 hours

30 seconds

30 minutes

Data Ready for Use @ (Govt)

>20 weeks of data available online

Data Ready for Use @ (Govt)3 weeks of data available online

Collect & Record

Ingest Process and Analyze

OT with QRIP / RAPIDS / KM

Govt. Analyst Data Request

RAPIDS

RAPIDS

DART Podand/orQRIP

MATLAB, JMP, Excel, etc

Data Ingest

(DGPS)

Raw Data Available

Govt. Analyst Data Request

KM (as well as MATLAB,

JMP, Excel, etc)

DART Pod

LM Data System

Raw Data Available

KM

30

Big Data Analytics

QRIP

31

Rapid & Agile T&E Construct• Modeling and Simulation…Key to success− Maximize Joint Simulation Environments− A foundational element of risk reduction− Must be a lead activity within the development cycle − HW/SW-in-the-loop

− Must support cross-platform, multi-domain, multi-security, mission-level model environment

32

Putting it all together

The Bottom LineYour take-aways

(to help justify the conference fees)

Acquisition and TE in 2025 & Beyond…

35

• Prototyping & Experimentation: − Expedites fielding, moderates risk, responsive to technology− T&E methodologies can assist with structuring the experiment

• Remove the Acq red tape…fund fast (inside the POM)

• Fail Forward…Fast

• Gov’t needs to “own it” (risk, tools, data)

• Integrated testing (Labs, developer, DT, OT, operators)

2025 & Beyond Take-Aways

36

• Fly before you buy… − We don’t want the glossy brochure; Show me!

• Go for the 80% solution− With capability growth mindedness

• Cast a wide net for game-changing ideas & concepts− Across: defense, industry, small business, academia

2025 & Beyond Take-Aways

37

Questions and Comments

��Acquisition and TE in 2025 & Beyond…�Meeting the Pace of Need� ~Fast, Agile, and Combat Credible~��PurposeFlight PlanCurrent Environment…Risky B-nessMarching OrdersSlide Number 6Pace of Need – Traditional Acquisition MismatchSo…What Do We Do?!So…What Do We Do?!The Old School’s a Good SchoolThe Old School’s a Good SchoolThe Old School’s a Good SchoolThe Old School’s a Good SchoolBe Willing to Fail Fast�…and Succeed Even FasterThe Old School’s a Good SchoolThe Old School’s a Good SchoolPrototypingPrototyping (Still) Works Today5GAT Prototype5GAT Prototype5GAT Prototype5GAT Prototype5GAT PrototypePrototyping, Experimentation, Agility is the FutureAcquisition/TE Innovation “Wins”Slide Number 26F-35 “First Steps” Towards AgileF-35 “First Steps” in Advanced Analytics and Big DataExponential Growth of Aircraft Bus Data RatesF-35 Data EvolutionRapid & Agile T&E ConstructAcquisition and TE in 2025 & Beyond…�2025 & Beyond Take-Aways2025 & Beyond Take-AwaysQuestions and Comments