peak oil models to help understand peak oil
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Peak OilPeak Oil
Models to help understand Models to help understand peak oilpeak oil
Dr. Robert J. BrechaDr. Robert J. Brecha
University of DaytonUniversity of DaytonChautauqua Course, May 22-24, 2006
Some BasicsSome BasicsUS Oil Production
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999
Pro
du
ctio
n (
tho
usa
nd
bb
l/day
)
Lower 48
+Alaska
US Energy Information Agency: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/pet_frame.html
Many Countries Have Many Countries Have Peaked!Peaked!
US
UK
Indonesia
Iran?
http://www.bp.com/genericsection.do?categoryId=92&contentId=7005893
Venezuela
Association for the Study of Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)Peak Oil (ASPO)
OPEC Proved Crude Oil OPEC Proved Crude Oil ReservesReserves
0
100
200
300
400
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600
700
800
90019
80
1982
1984
1986
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1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
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2002
2004
Gb
bl
rese
rves
UAE
Venezuela
Saudi Arabia
Kuwait
Iraq
Iran
Energy Information Agency, posted March 2005, January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2005 Estimates
GaussianGaussian
US Oil production
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5
10
15
20
25
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Qu
ad
rill
ion
Btu
/ye
ar
Gaussian Fit to US Gaussian Fit to US ProductionProduction
Gaussian Production(quadratic fit)
y = -0.0003x2 + 1.1875x - 1167.5
R2 = 0.9898
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Lo
gar
ith
m o
f p
rod
uct
ion
USGS and Cumulative USGS and Cumulative ProductionProduction
Hubbert’s Logistic CurveHubbert’s Logistic CurveLogistic Curve
0
50
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150
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250
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gb
bl
tota
l p
rod
uct
ion
Logistic Curve
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150
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250
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gb
bl
tota
l p
rod
uct
ion
1980 Prediction
Logistic Curve
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250
1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gb
bl
tota
l p
rod
uct
ion
“Economic” argument: We will alwaysfind more and increase ultimate recovered amount
= kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)dQdt
Problem with Logistic Problem with Logistic CurvesCurves
At early stages, curves for widely differing total amounts may look very similar.
There are too many free fitting parameters
The Point Remains …The Point Remains …US 48 Oil Production
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1000
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6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1860 1910 1960 2010 2060
Th
ou
san
d b
arre
ls p
er d
ay
Hubbert LinearizationHubbert Linearization
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/1/11/6047/13568
Q (Gbbl)
P = kQ(1 – Q/Q∞)
HL - TexasHL - Texas
http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/
HL – US 48HL – US 48
HL – Saudi ArabiaHL – Saudi Arabia
HL - WorldHL - World
US Geological Survey US Geological Survey EstimatesEstimates
www.ihs.com
Bentley, Global Oil and Gas Depletion – an Overview, Energy Policy 30 (2002)
Rough Outline of the Rough Outline of the FutureFuture
USGS published reserve estimates in USGS published reserve estimates in 19981998
EIA uses those estimates, along with EIA uses those estimates, along with consumption patterns to predict future consumption patterns to predict future growthgrowth
A gap between predicted demand and A gap between predicted demand and predicted production appears by 2025predicted production appears by 2025
Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia Gap is to be filled with a) Saudi Arabia producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) producing >20 MMbbl/day, and b) “unidentified unconventional” sources“unidentified unconventional” sources
Creaming CurvesCreaming Curves
One Prediction (1998)One Prediction (1998)
R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist,“Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production,” Natural Resources Research 8, 219-233 (1999). Also by the same authors: “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle” http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
Duncan and Youngquist Duncan and Youngquist PredictionsPredictions
Peaked prior to 1997Peaked prior to 1997 14 14 countriescountries
Recovered from peak after 1997Recovered from peak after 1997 0 countries0 countries
Predicted to peak 1998-2005Predicted to peak 1998-2005 16 16 countriescountries
Actually peaked between 1998-Actually peaked between 1998-20052005
11 11 countriescountries
Predicted to peak after 2005Predicted to peak after 2005 13 13 countriescountries
Predicted to peak after 2005, Predicted to peak after 2005, but have already peakedbut have already peaked
2 countries2 countries
Finding NorwaysFinding Norways
R.C. Duncan and W. Youngquist, “The World Petroleum Life-Cycle”http://www.dieoff.com/page133.pdf
Matthew Simmons – “Twilight in the Desert”
2/3 !
Peak ModelsPeak Models
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00
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Year
Bill
ion
ba
rre
ls p
er
ye
ar
BP
USGS
A Brief History of OilA Brief History of Oil
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0 25
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75
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00
12
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00
17
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00
22
50
Year
Bill
ion
ba
rre
ls p
er
ye
ar
Keep Watching…Keep Watching…
http://www.theoildrum.com
Peak “Good” OilPeak “Good” Oil
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, August 2005
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