rohit talwar - hotels 2020 keynote to hotel investment conference - london 07 09 11
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Hotels 2020 -Rethinking Hotel
Strategies, Business
Models and Investment
Propositions
Hotel Investment Conference
London – September 7th 2011
Rohit Talwar
CEO Fast Future Research
rohit@fastfuture.com
Hotels 2020 – Objectives
• Identify key drivers of change
for the globally branded hotel
sector over the next decade
• Examine the implications for:
– Hotel strategy – Hotel strategy
– Brand portfolio
– Business models
– Customer targeting
– Innovation
Hotels 2020 – Research Methods
• Expert Interviews
• Desk Research
• Global Survey• Global Survey
• Workshops (Delhi, Dubai)
Growth is no Longer a ‘Given’-
-Thinking is Back in Fashion
Transformational Change?
It’s Only Just Begun
Demographic Destinies 2 billion more people in 40 years –
Demographics is Driving Economics
1998
448 691 5231739
344
1998
729
4157
1030
585
Source : United Nations2010 2050
Reorientation of Global Markets
Today - US – 3 Seats per head / China 0.3 / India 0.1
Asia – a third of all flyers (2013) and travel spend (2020)
Heavy investment in emerging tourism markets will widen traveller
choice, increase competition and potentially drive down prices and
profit margins across the spectrum of hotels
21
58
20
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree593 Respondents
Tomorrow’s Traveler - Demographics
• Over 60’s in developed economies to rise from 22-33% from 2009 and 2050.
• In developing world, from 9 to 20%20%
• Global retirement market 2010-2020 could grow from $28 - $46 Tn
• Global middle class could rise from 430M to 1.2 Bn (2000 –2030)
Life Redefined –Lifespans are Increasing
Under 50’s have 90% chance of living to 100.
Aubrey de Grey suggests we could live to 500 or 1000we could live to 500 or 1000
What are the health, consumption and resource implications?
What kind of opportunities will be created?
• By 2020, Asian
consumers could account
for over 40% of global
middle class consumption
• By 2014 female wealth
Tomorrow’s Traveler –Spending Patterns
• By 2014 female wealth
could reach $18 trillion
• Females could control
70% of global consumer
spending
The Asian middle classes will make up the largest share of international travel
21
54
25
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree600 Respondents
Traveller Behaviours
� Too Busy To Care
� Complex Lives, PressurisedFinances
� Craving Simplicity
� Wealthy and Hard to Please
Hotels will increasingly consider factors such as cost of servicing, level of spend and average length of stay when targeting potential customers
in different geographic markets
593 Respondents
39
58
30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
Sustainability
Environmental considerations will play an increasing role in the choice of business and leisure hotels. 606 Respondents
Hotel 1000 Seattle – Guest Sensors
Crowne Plaza Copenhagen Towers –Solar Power, Geothermal Well, Eco-rooms
• Number of mobile subscribers could rise from 4Bn to 5Bn 2009-2015
• Mobile data traffic to rise 300-fold by 2015 (Nokia).
• By 2020 the range and nature
Tomorrow’s Traveler – Technology
• By 2020 the range and nature of interaction technologies / customer ‘touch points’ will expand dramatically.
• ‘Go nowhere’ gamers
• Personal genetic profiles
Traveler motivations will become increasingly fragmented and diverse and harder to segment into clearly definable customer groupings
604 Respondents
Customers will increasingly use social media and collective intelligence travel services (like Dopplr) to
define the desired ‘product’ for a temporary self-forming group.
601 Respondents
45 45
9
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
Hotels will need to develop strong social media 'listening skills' to understand how customer needs and perceptions of brands and service quality are truly evolving and to develop service propositions, marketing messages, and pricing solutions that reflect the needs of an increasingly
diverse customer base.
54
42
4
0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree597 Respondents
Technology and Connectivity DriversHotels will increasingly look to new technologies to
drastically increase efficiency, reduce costs, personalise the customer experience and improve service.
605 Respondents
54
41
41
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree
Hotel Technology Development Roadmap to 2020
Widespread Now Widespread by 2015 Widespread by 2020
Relationship Management1.67 billion web users
Rise of social meeting
Travel planning
Tablet computers
Wireless broadband
Virtual Travel
Dominance of online bookings
Evolution of Customer
Relationship Management
(CRM)
High bandwidth wireless
broadband
Speech Recognition and
5 billion web users
Intelligent Agents / Software
Assistant
Semantic Web
Intelligent Web
Immersive Web (Use of web
technology to deliver Speech Recognition and
Language Translation in daily
use
technology to deliver
sensation, experience and
emotion)
Personal Technology
Augmented Reality (figure 3) Explosion Of Personal Display
Devices
Mind Control Headsets (figure
4)
4G Phones
Intelligent Interfaces
5G Phones
Gesture Interfaces (figure 5)
Heads Up Displays (figure 6)
Hotel Technology Development Roadmap to 2020
Widespread Now Widespread by 2015 Widespread by 2020
Guestroom Functionality
Centralized and
personalized control of
media, lighting and
temperature
3D TV
Multimedia Beds
IP Telephony
IPTV
Smartphone Room
4D TV
Sensor-Based Room
Management
Personal Robots
Smartphone Room
Access
In Room Concierge
Meeting Support
Video Conferencing /
Tele-presence
Virtual Meetings And
Hybrid Events
Widespread Now Widespread by 2015 Widespread by 2020
Guest ServicesSelf Service Kiosks
3D Displays
Interactive Displays
Interactive Surfaces
Near Field Communication
(NFC)
Quick-Response (QR) Codes
Touchable Holographs
Haptics Technology (allowing
users to physically ''feel'
virtual objects on a computer)
Hotel Technology Development Roadmap to 2020
Business Operations And Management
Cloud Computing Biometrics (E.G. Voice /
Facial Recognition)
RFID
Data Security Ambient Intelligence
Hybrid Platforms
Monitoring And Surveillance
Knowledge Mining
Predictive Analytics
Sensor Networks
Swarm Intelligence
(Analyzing Group Behavior)
Remote Sensing Security
Crowd Farming
Thought Control - Today
Personalization
Augmented Reality
Data Immersion / Heads up
Ambient Intelligence
Opportunities and Implications
• Developing strategy in an uncertain world• Management of the brand portfolio• Evolution of business and revenue models• Location • Categorization in the era of personalisation.
By 2020 By 2020 globalglobal hotel groups will increasingly seek to cover hotel groups will increasingly seek to cover
the full spectrum from budget through to luxury and the full spectrum from budget through to luxury and
heritage propertiesheritage properties
606 Respondents
Hotel groups and owners may increasingly seek to co-locate different categories of hotel from budget to luxury in a
common location with shared catering and leisure facilities for use by all guests
598 Respondents
By 2020 a new category of co-branded and co-designed ‘signature’ properties will emerge within hotel chain portfolios, providing
differentiation and opening up ancillary revenue stream options
By 2020 a new category of co-branded and co-designed
‘signature’ properties will emerge within hotel chain
portfolios, providing differentiation and opening up ancillary
revenue stream options
590 Respondents
22
57
19
2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree590 Respondents
By 2020 we will see the emergence of a new breed of unbranded hotel group, offering 'white label solutions'- including sophisticated marketing, very high standards of service and advanced technology support while
allowing owners to develop their own brands
595 Respondents
The emergence of invitation-only hotels’ by 2020The emergence of invitation-only hotels’ by 2020
587 Respondents
By 2020 hotels will increasingly experiment with a range of
business models
602 Respondents
Hotels will use discount offers to capture a share of pre- and post-trip travel spend e.g. purchase of luggage, clothing,
transportation, insurance, duty free etc.
610 Respondents
Hotels will create their own catalogues of branded amenities, clothing, furniture and decorations
610 Respondents
Hotels will increasingly provide additional business services e.g. translation, access to legal and accounting advice,
secretarial support, company formation, organization of small meetings, etc
610 Respondents
PricingIn a highly automated world, there will be a range of customers at every price point who are willing to pay for personal service
610 Respondents
Hotel Categorization may Need to Evolve to Focus More on Service Than Facilities
Segmentation
71% agreed that
‘traveler motivations will
become increasingly
fragmented and diverse
and harder to segment
into clearly definable
customer groupings’.
Hotel guests will expect their stay to be personalized around a set of choices they make at the time of
booking or prior to arrival
42
50
7
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree602 Respondents
The Emergence of Personalized Service Spectrums
86% agreed that by 2020,
personalization will have been
embraced wholeheartedly by
the sector and that ‘customers
will have the ability to choose
the size of room, type of bed,
amenities, audio-visual
facilities, business equipment,
etc. on booking and pay
accordingly’.
What’s in the Service Spectrum?
• Customer
Relationship /
Communications
• Customer Journey –
• Food and Beverages
• Technology, Media
and
Telecommunications• Customer Journey –
Core Processes
• Staff and Service
• The Bedroom
Environment
Telecommunications
• Hotel Services and
Facilities
• Pricing
Customer Journey – Core Processes
Staff and Service Highly trained staff backed up by technology will be key to delivering
personalized service and experiences
605 Respondents
The Bedroom Environment
Food and Beverages
Technology, Media and Telecommunications
Mapping a Path to 2020Strategic Management Imperatives
Horizon scanning Scenario based planning Anticipation
Open processes Rapid implementation Tomorrow’s workforce
Hotels 2020 Hotels 2020 –– Key Characteristics of Key Characteristics of Successful Players in Tomorrow’s Successful Players in Tomorrow’s
WorldWorld
1.Deep understanding of an increasingly
geographically, financially, generationally and attitudinally diverse and evolving customer base
• Growth from emerging
markets
• Evolving demands of an
aging population
• Rising disparity and
continued uncertainty in
developed economies
• Augmented reality creates
digital overlay’s on the ‘real’
world
2. Immersive, tactile and multi-dimensional
technology interfaces
© 2010 Amadeus IT Group
SA
• 3D projection and gesture
interfaces will change how
we view and interact with
information
• Potential to capture more of total trip spending
3. Continuous search for ancillary revenues
© 2
010
Am
adeu
s IT
Gro
up S
A
• Identification of new streams and merchandising opportunities
96% believe that in the face of intense global competition, the hotel industry will develop a strong focus on strategy
4. Open, listening, collaborative and experimental
approach to innovation
© 2010 Amadeus IT Group
SA
strong focus on strategy and innovation –adopting approaches such as crowd sourcing and open innovation to generate new ideas.
• Prepare for a range of possible scenarios
5. An organization capable of surviving and
thriving in turbulence and uncertainty
• Tolerance of uncertainty becomes a core competence
Hotels 2020: Conclusion
• The hotel of the future will be a living laboratory
– Constant experimentation and experimentation and innovation
– Every interaction a potential source of insight and ideas
Hotels 2020 – Beyond Segmentation
Thank You
Fast Future –Hotel and Meetings Industry Services
• Briefings and workshops for executive management and boards of hotels, venues, CVB’s and associations
• Customised research on trends, technologies and new marketsand new markets
• Development of strategies and business plans
• ‘Deep dives’ on key trends and technology developments
• Consultancy and workshop facilitation on innovation and new business models
62
Fast Future • Research, consulting, speaking, leadership
• 5-20 year horizon - focus on ideas, developments, people, trends and forces shaping the future
• Clients
– Industry Associations – ICCA, ASAE, PCMA, MPI
– Corporates - GE, Nokia, Pepsi, IBM, Intel, Samsung, GSK, SAP, Orange, O2, E&Y, KPMG, Amadeus, Sabre, Travelport, Travelex, ING, Santander, Barclays, Citibank, DeutscheBankSantander, Barclays, Citibank, DeutscheBank
– Governments - Dubai, Finland, Nigeria, Singapore, UK, US
– Convention Bureaus – Seoul, Sydney, London, San Francisco, Toronto, Abu Dhabi, Durban, Athens, Slovenia, Copenhagen
– Convention Centres – Melbourne,
Adelaide, Qatar, QEIICC
– Hotels - Accor Group, Preferred,
– Intercontinental
– Congrex, Kenes
– Aeroports de Paris / Schiphol Group
• Global strategic foresight study to help the meetings industry prepare for
the decade ahead - Industry-wide sponsors
• Multiple outputs Nov 2009 – December 2011
• Current studies on future strategies for venues and destinations
Convention 2020
Rohit Talwar• Global futurist and founder of Fast Future Research.
• Award winning speaker on future insights and strategic
innovation – addressing leadership audiences in 40 countries on
5 continents
• Author of Designing Your Future – Published 08/2008
• Profiled by UK’s Independent Newspaper as one of the Top 10
Global Future Thinkers
• Led futures research, scenario planning and strategic
consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications, consultancy projects for clients in telecommunications,
technology, pharmaceuticals, banking, travel and tourism,
environment, food and government sectors
• Clients include 3M, BBC, BT, BAe, Bayer, Chloride, DTC De
Beers, DHL, EADS, Electrolux, E&Y, GE, Hoover, Hyundai, IBM,
ING, Intel, KPMG, M&S, Nakheel, Nokia, Nomura, Novartis,
OECD, Orange, Panasonic, Pfizer, PwC, Samsung, Shell,
Siemens, Symbian, Yell , numerous international associations
and governments agencies in the US, UK, Finland, Dubai,
Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Singapore.
• To receive Fast Future’s newsletters please email
rohit@fastfuture.com
• 50 key trends
• 100 emerging trends
• 10 major patterns of change
• Key challenges and choices for
leaders
Designing Your FutureKey Trends, Challenges and Choices Facing
Association and Nonprofit Leaders
leaders
• Strategic decision making
framework
• Scenarios for 2012
• Key futures tools and techniques
• Published August 2008
• Price £49.95 / €54.95/ $69.95
• Email invoice request to
rohit@fastfuture.com
Our ServicesBespoke research; Identification & Analysis of Future Trends, Drivers & Shocks
Accelerated Scenario Planning, Timelining & Future Mapping
Personal Futuring for
Public Speaking, In-Company Briefings, Seminars and Workshops
Identification of Opportunities for Innovation and Strategic InvestmentStrategy Creation &
Development of Implementation Roadmaps
Design & Facilitation of Innovation, Incubation & Venturing Programmes
Expert Consultations & Futures Think Tanks
Personal Futuring for Leaders and Leadership Teams
Example Projects• Public and private client research e.g. :
– Convention 2020 – the Future of Business Events
– Future Convention Cities Initiative – Maximising Long-term Economic Impact of Events
– One Step Beyond – Future trends and challenges for the events industry
– Hotels 2020: Beyond Segmentation – Future Hotel Strategies
– The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East – a Vision to 2020
– Future of Travel and Tourism Investment in Saudi Arabia
– Aviation and Airports e.g. Aviation 2030
– Scenario Projects – Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics, Chemical Sector, Family 2030– Scenario Projects – Migration 2030, Future of Narcotics, Chemical Sector, Family 2030
– Scenarios for the global economy for 2030 and the implications for migration
– Designing Your Future (Published August 2008) – book written for the American Society of Association Executives & The Center for Association Leadership
– Global Economies – e.g. The Future of China – the Path to 2020
– The Shape of Jobs to Come – Emerging Science and Technology Sectors and Careers
– Winning in India and China
• Strategic advice to industry players
• Confidential advisory and coaching services to CEOs and top teams
• Public speaking at public conferences and in-company events
• Future thinking workshops and retreats
Example Clients
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