the effects of climate change s. elwynn taylor agronomist, extension climatologist

The Effects

OfClimate Change

S. Elwynn TaylorAgronomist, Extension ClimatologistIowa State University, Ames, Iowa

setaylor@iastate.edu

• How much wetter than usual was June?

• In 1988: How many Window Air Units can we sell?

2014: Are the Hurricanes going to all be in the Pacific Now?

Simon

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/wobbly-polar-vortex-triggers-extreme-cold-air-outbreak

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/polar-vortex-brings-cold-here-and-there-not-everywhere

The Management Question:

Is this the “NEW Normal”or is this the “Same Old Same Old”

?

Climate,Past & Future

“The climate is changing, climate has always changed & will always change. The question is; ‘how much, how fast, how come?’ ” D. M. Gates ‘66

Will the “New” Dwarf the “Old.”

The Old is still with us.

The “New” is, however, very real: & the “Problem” is US (with apologies to Pogo)

Do People Change the Earth’s Climate ?

Remember: There is a lot more to climate than simply Temperature and Rain.

b

The VICIOUS CYCLE

Population

Agriculture

Climate

Who will BREAK the CYCLE ?

http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/files/images/forests/amazon/amazon-fires-aug08.jpg

On the Same Old - - - -

123.4

2004 - 9

158.8

(+16 to 19 cents)

174 9%

La Nina : Extremes

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif

Final, Revised for: Bulletin of the American MeteorologicalSociety, Vol. 77, No. 2, Feb. 1996, pp 279-292.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gcps/papers/icc-us.pdf

The NEW Corn belt

• Remember when it was the price of “Crude” that impacted energy cost?

•

Increased Stream Flow:Increased # of Flood-prone Years

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

f(x) = 6.93204241599198 x − 12627.4395898116

Turkey River at Garber, IA

1

2

34

5

67

8

9

10

19 yr Dry/WetTree rings indicate climate cycles.

wet

dry

Heat & Water Stress

& 90 year cycles

Tree RingsRoanoke, NC cypress tree. Dennis Blanton, Wm & Mary College, David Stahle, Univ. of Arkansas.

U.S. droughtstarts here.

800 Year Rain (Virginia)

Do People Change the Earth’s Climate ?

Remember: There is a lot more to climate than simply Temperature and Rain.

b

Secondary CO2 impacts on climate are a major area of research.

It appears that the effect on day-night temperature range may be of high significance

Tillage of the Soilvs

Clearing of the Forest

Can Agriculture change from cause to cure?Can a farm be a “good” as a Prairie?

Reasons Corn Production is Up

1: Growing corn is profitable

2:

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/servlet/GetNewsImage?path=0702BAD4.gif&width=

Profit in AgKnow what is going on

Manage the Risk

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

7.00

Season-average Price Cost per Bushel

$ pe

r bu

shel

Corn Price vs Cost

•

High risk Moderate High

stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4

137