1

Bevorzugter Zitierstil!

!!!!Axhausen, K.W. (2011) Social networks and travel: Current status

and expected change, Workshop Behaviour in Networks, University of Seoul, June 2011. !

Social networks and travel: Current status and expected change!

KW Axhausen IVT ETH Zürich June 2011

FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY

FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY

FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY

FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY

FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY

FUTURE CITIES !LABORATORY

FUTURE CITIES!LABORATORY

Acknowledgements

•  Timo Ohnmacht •  Andreas Frei •  Jeremy Hackney •  Matthias Kowald

•  Andreas Horni

•  Jonas Larson •  John Urry

3

4

What are the questions ?

5

Productivity and population growth in Western Europe

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

Jahr

Wac

hstu

m [%

/Jah

r]

ProduktivitätBevölkerung

Gal

or u

nd W

eil (

2000

), Fi

gure

1

6

Quality-adjusted price of a new car in Switzerland

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Jahr

Qua

lität

sber

eini

gter

Pre

isin

dex

(200

4 =

100)

[%]

Frei, 2004Raff und Trajtenberg, 1990

Frei

, 200

5

7

Price of telecommunication A

dapt

ed fr

om F

CC

(20

01)

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

2000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000Year

Inde

x [1

995

= 10

0]

US International and interstate averagerevenue per minute

8

A shrinking world

Coach and sailing boat until 1840

Steam ship and locomotive, 1840 - 1930

Propeller aircraft, 1930-1950

Jets, from 1950 DIc

ken,

199

8!

Stunde 1 9

Shrinking “road” – Switzerland (1950) S

cher

er, 2

004

Stunde 1 10

Shrinking “road” Switzerland (2000) S

cher

er, 2

004

11

Swiss commuter catchment areas since 1970 A

dapt

ed fr

om B

otte

, 200

3

12

Trip purpose distributions (ca. 2005)

Share of kilometers traveled [%]

Switzer-land

Germany UK USA

Leisure 44.8 38.3 33.7 32.2 Work/School 35.0 29.7 32.0 31.3 Shopping/Privat business 11.2 21.7 19.7 27.6 Escort 4.9 4.5 7.6 8.5 Others 1.8 4.8 7.1 0.5 Total

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

13

Social leisure ! (2003 Thurgau 6-week diary)

Short vacationExcursion: nature

OtherExcursion: culture

Meeting friendsFurther education (leisure)

Garden/ cottageVoluntary work

Disco, pub, restaurant, cinemaMeeting relatives/family

Window shoppingPick up/drop off/attendance

Group/club meetingFamily duty

CemeteryActive sports

EducationLong-term shopping

Walk or strollDaily shopping

Private businessPrivate business (doctor,...

Work

3.02.52.01.51.00.50.0

Mean

Dog travelling alongOther persons travelling alongHousehold members travelling along

14

Theoretical starting point

15

(Moving) actors in social/physical networks

Personal world

Biography

Projects Learning

Personal worlds of

others

Social captial: stock of joint

abilities

Household locations Social network geography Mobility tools

16

Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice

Resi

denc

e

17

Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice!

Logi

cal d

estin

atio

n

Resi

denc

e

18

Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice!

Logi

cal d

estin

atio

n

Resi

denc

e

Choi

ce

19

Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice!

Logi

cal d

estin

atio

n

Resi

denc

e

Choi

ce

Resi

denc

e

Resi

denc

e

20

Example social network geography

Female, 28, 4 residential

moves

Ohn

mac

ht, 2

004

21

Network structures Ill

enbe

rger

, Kow

ald,

Axh

ause

n an

d N

agel

, 201

1

22

Dynamics of personal space use and speed

Wages!Fleet!comfort!Housing!consumption!!vtts et al.!

Activities!

Specialisation!

k!

vkm!

pkm!Tours! +!+!

+!+!

+!

+!+!

+!+!

+!+!+!

+!

-!

-! -!

+!

-!Energy !

+!

+!-!

Elasticity > 0 !Elasticity < 0!

+!-!

Migration!+!

+!

Professional and!personal activity space!

Network!geography!Number!

of networks!

Network!overlap!

Local !anomie!

-!

+!

+!-!

-! -!-!-!

23

Empirical results from Switzerland and the UK

24

Biography of an architect in his early thirties La

rsen

, Axh

ause

n an

d U

rry,

200

6

25

Number of contacts reported

Bars show percents

0 10 20 30 40 50

Number of contacts named

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

Per

cent

Frei

and

Axh

ause

n, 2

005

26

Distances between home locations Fr

ei a

nd A

xhau

sen,

200

5

27

Size of network geometries

95%-confidence ellipse of the social network geography

1.E10

1.E91.E81.E71.E61.E51.E41.E31.E21.E11.E0

Perc

ent

40

30

20

10

0

Frei

and

Axh

ause

n, 2

005

28

Interactions by mode and distance between homes

10000.001000.00100.0010.001.000.001

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00

SMS messages/year Great circle distance [km]

Email messages/year Great circle distance [km]

Phone calls/year Great circle distance [km]

Face-to-face visits/year Great circle distance [km]

Great circle distance (km)

10000.001000.00100.0010.001.000.001

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00

SMS messages/year Great circle distance [km]

Email messages/year Great circle distance [km]

Phone calls/year Great circle distance [km]

Face-to-face visits/year Great circle distance [km]

Great circle distance (km)

Frei

and

Axh

ause

n, 2

005

29

First computational experiments

30

Horni: Agent and facility specific error terms

Very High-Resolution Destination Choice in Agent-Based Demand Models August 2011

Figure 5: Zurich Scenario: Iteration 100 (relaxed state)

(a) Shopping Trips

(b) Leisure Trips

0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 12 13 14 15

Distance [km] (discrete)

p

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

●

●

●

●● ●

●● ●

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ●

●●

●

●

●●

●●

● ●● ● ●

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

●

●

●

●

●

●●

● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

MicrocensusZH with error termZH without error term

32

Hoi

rni ,

201

1

31

Frei: Geocoded network of friends on a random plane

[km] Criteria for network generation Degree Closeness Betweenness b2/b3 Mean Median Mean Median Mean Median

4 10.4 6.2 12.6 6.3 11.1 6.1 3 8.6 5.8 9.8 5.9 9.0 5.8 2 7.0 5.4 7.6 5.5 7.2 5.3 1 5.6 5.3 6.4 5.3 6.1 5.2

0.5 4.6 4.3 5.1 4.4 4.9 4.3 0.33 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.2

!

Frei

, 20

11

32

What do we want to look at ?

33

Range of future modelling

Wages!Fleet!comfort!Housing!consumption!!vtts et al.!

Activities!

Specialisation!

k!

vkm!

pkm!Tours! +!+!

+!+!

+!

+!+!

+!+!

+!+!+!

+!

-!

-! -!

+!

-!Energy !

+!

+!-!

Elasticity > 0 !Elasticity < 0!

+!-!

Migration!+!

+!

Professional and!personal activity space!

Network!geography!Number!

of networks!

Network!overlap!

Local !anomie!

-!

+!

+!-!

-! -!-!-!

34

Create degree, clustering and distances ! Ill

enbe

rger

, Kow

ald,

Axh

ause

n an

d N

agel

, 201

1

35

New equilibrium search in MATSim

Simulation of competition on net- works and facilities

k(t,r,j)i,n

qi ≡ (t,r,j)i,n

Joh-style score (utility) calculation

Initial schedules

(Optimal) replanning (inc. connection)

Ui(t,r,j)i,n

36

Activity scheduling with best response & random modules

•  Number and type of activities •  Sequence of activities

•  Start and duration of activity •  Composition of the group undertaking the activity •  Expenditure division •  Location of the activity (including all participants’ generalised

costs)

•  Movement between sequential locations

•  Location of access and egress from the mean of transport •  Parking type and location

•  Vehicle/means of transport •  Route/service •  Group travelling together •  Expenditure division

36

37

More information at

www.ivt.ethz.ch www.matsim.org