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Eric S. Langer President and Managing Partner, BioPlan Associates, Inc. 2275 Research Blvd, Suite 500 Rockville, MD 20850 301-921-5979 www.bioplanassociates.com
5 September 2016
Current Trends in Single Use Technologies:
Future Developments Affecting Production
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Cell Therapies Single-use Continuous Bioprocessing Microbial Simulated Moving Bed Modular/Ballroom Production Flexible Bioprocessing …More
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TRENDS AND BIOPROCESSING-CONTRADICTION IN TERMS!
Not all trends are good ideas Some good ideas don’t survive the test of time, regulatory pressures, or effectiveness
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TODAY’S UP AND DOWNSTREAM BIOPROCESSING TRENDS
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2016 13th Annual Report •222 Biopharmas, CMOs •190 Industry Suppliers •28 Countries
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ONGOING BIOPHARMACEUTICAL TRENDS…
More global biopharma facilities
More biological products; often w/smaller markets
More continuous processing, including downstream
More multi-product facilities
Modular facilities-new enabling technologies, re-purpose spaces
More efficient bioprocessing – titers and yields continue to increase
More high-tech expression systems and engineering advances
More automation, monitoring and process control
More bioprocess modeling
More process automation
More complex regulation
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SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT BIOMANUFACTURING TREND, 2014-2016
It’s STILL about Productivity
Does CBP ‘Trend’ have staying-power?
…been here for 30 years!
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BIG-PICTURE BIOPROCESSING SITUATION, RELATED TO SINGLE-USE
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Economic resilience: • $200B biopharmaceutical industry; $150B recombinant
proteins/mAbs • ~$23B~ bioprocessing supplies and services industry • Consistent 12%-15% annual growth • Both biotherapeutic revenue & bioprocessing supply/service
did well in recession
Pharmaceuticals shifting to biopharmaceuticals • Nearly 50% of pharma R&D in biopharmaceuticals, and
increasing • Biopharmaceuticals more profitable (and expensive)
BIG-PICTURE BIOPROCESSING SITUATION
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BIG-PICTURE BIOPROCESSING SITUATION
Single-use Equipment: Adoption continues. SUS, upstream (e.g., bioreactors), dominates (85%) pre-commercial, R&D, trials supply
Stainless Steel: Dominates commercial-scale.
China, India, ROW as Biomanufacturers: Domestic, less regulated markets-rapid growth
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BIG-PICTURE BIOPROCESSING SITUATION
Bioprocessing Continues to Improve: Steady increases in titers; DSP yields hold steady
Improvements: Cell lines, media, expr. systems
Downstream Less of a Problem: Remains most challenging (vs titers). But industry increasing DSP productivity • A primary bottleneck in bioprocessing • New technologies being introduced
Continuous bioprocessing • Upstream (perfusion) – Slow comm’l slow-growth (<$25M/yr) • Downstream (chromatography) – little yet available
Increased Titer can result in
smaller operations; impacts on
SUS
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BIG-PICTURE BIOPROCESSING SITUATION
Mammalian Crowding-out Other Platforms: More, larger companies standardizing in-house bioprocessing to be ~~solely mammalian-based
Microbial Single-use Systems Here: Introduced next-gen SUS microbial bioreactors.
Modular Bioprocessing Facilities: • Vendors’ modular comm’l construction, completed in weeks • Modular facil, not just cleanrooms, becoming a trend (e.g., GE KuBio in China)
Biosimilars Finally Entering U.S. markets: FDA approved 3 biosimilars. Healthy pipeline (www.biosimilarspipeline.com). ~800 biosimilars
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BIG-PICTURE BIOPROCESSING SITUATION
Cost-containment/Controls: Protests high pharma prices. Clinton warns of action vs. pricing practices…EpiPen, hep C, HIV (not biopharma)
Biosimilars will change pricing models: Force physicians, pharmacists and to use these
Developing Countries Increasing GMP: Top 1000 Global Facilities Index (www.top1000bio.com)
Worldwide Standardization: More biomanufacturing performed worldwide, standardize manufacturing globally.
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BIOPROCESSING MARKET OVERVIEW
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IMPROVING BIOMANUFACTURING PERFORMANCE
FACTORS CREATING "SIGNIFICANT" OR "SOME" IMPROVEMENTS U.S. VS WESTERN EUROPE VS REST OF WORLD
73.4% in US Feel SUS is Improving their Biomanufacturing!
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VENDORS' OPTIMISM FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 2011-2016: % VENDORS, (N=158)
30.4% - DOUBLE the percent last year,
expect to do ‘Much Better’
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AREAS WHERE VENDORS CREATE QUALITY PROBLEMS (2008-2016)
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NEW TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
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NEW PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT AREAS OF INTEREST: 2010 - 2016
TREND: What will CBP look like in
5 Years?
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New Product Development Areas of Interest "U.S. vs Western Europe vs ROW
ASIA is likely to lead the demand for SUS in 5 years…Pricing is
today’s concern
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WHAT ARE SUT COMPETITORS WORKING ON 2012-2016
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SINGLE-USE USAGE TRENDS
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ESTIMATED % OF UNIT OPERATIONS THAT ARE "SINGLE-USE" (2014 VS. 2016)
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REASONS FOR INCREASING SINGLE USE, 2015 (% INDICATING ATTRIBUTE IS "VERY IMPORTANT" OR "IMPORTANT")
>83% State Reasons for Increasing SUS:
Strategic Manufacturing
>88% note OPERATIONAL
Reasons
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VALUE OF USEABLE L&E DATA HOW MUCH MORE FACILITIES MAY PAY IF SINGLE-USE DEVICE SUPPLIER PROVIDED "USEABLE" LEACHABLES AND EXTRACTABLES (L&E) DATA
L&E TREND Est. Avg Acceptable Upcharge for "Useable L&E Data" : 12.2% in 2016 vs 13.4% in 2015
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FACTORS RESTRICTING DISPOSABLES PERCENT INDICATING "STRONGLY AGREE" OR "AGREE“ (2015)
>75% Waiting for Better Bags…
>57% Don’t want to get stuck with just 1
supplier
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FACTORY OF THE FUTURE
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SINGLE USE/DISPOSABLE ADOPTION ISSUES % "AGREE "OR "STRONGLY AGREE"
57.3% expect to see a fully SUS facility in
5 Years
51.8% expect THEIR facility will be 50%
GMP SUS 5 Years 21.3% expect
‘Significant’ Upstream
Continuous Bioprocessing in
2 Years!
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EVALUATING CONTINUOUS BIOPROCESSING TECHNOLOGIES (OVER NEXT 12 MONTHS)
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GEOGRAPHIC OPPORTUNITIES
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9%
37%
26%
5%
6%
Other: 17%
CONCENTRATION OF BIOPROCESSING
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GEOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS--CHINA
Biologics’ quality issues on the rise
DSP is 70% of Bioprocessing; a key to public safety
2010 GMP documents set higher standards
New investment entering China biologics
Expect >15% growth in facilities, revenue
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CHINA MARKET OF BIOPROCESSING POSES DOUBLE-DIGIT GROWTH
Note: DSP estimated at 70% of total cost of bioprocessing in China
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DOMESTIC CHINESE VENDORS TRYING TO CATCH-UP
Domestic devices generally viewed not as good as multinationals
Domestics cannot provide integrated solutions
Domestics trying to catch up • Suzhou Sepax • Senhui Microsphere • Huiyan Bio – Chromatography Material • Lisure Science (chromatography automation) • Hua Chuang
– Hi Tech Filtration – ATFF -AutoPrep:ATFF automatic ultrafiltration systems adopts imported
head, valves, sensors, advanced control concept
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BIOSIMILARS & EFFECT ON SUS
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NUMBER OF BIOSIMILARS IN THE U.S. PIPELINE BY LAUNCHABLE DATES
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COGS
Cost of a biologic in 2005 was $500/gram
Decreasing: <$100/gram in some production
Stainless in US, at 10k – 20k L scale may run $100 - $30/g.
GMP Single-use, even in developing regions over $200/gram
1/3 API, 1/3 Fill-Finish, and 1/3 Quality.
F/F costs: • CMOs indicate Fill-finish@ 10-20% (up to a third) of API cost. • Some consider F/F costs may exceed biosimilars production costs
Biosimilars in SUS at 2000L: COGs may approach Stainless
(Cost-accounting variability…Depreciation? Overhead?)
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API VOLUMES < MANY PRESUME
5-10 competitors for each biosimilar
5 years out, will reference product retain 50% total market share?
If 10 competitors share 50% market (5% each) competitors needs 5%, of ref. product’s KGs
If a ref. product needs 120,000 L annual capacity, each biosimilar needs 6,000 L annually
Cost-effectively manufactured using SUS
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BIOSIMILARS CAPACITY
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HOW MUCH CAPACITY IS NEEDED?
Sus vs Stainless Scale
2016 Biosimilars Facility Capacity Demand 2026 Biosimilars Facility Capacity Demand
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WHAT HAPPENS IF TITERS DOUBLE?
Sus vs Stainless Scale
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IN-HOUSE, DEDICATED BIOSIMILARS MFG CAPACITY
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SUMMARY
Single-use a mainstream technology
SUS Opportunities continue to increase,
Derived from larger industry trends: • Asia • Biosimilars • Multi-facility • Continuous • DSP
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BioPlan Associates, Inc.
2275 Research Blvd, Suite 500
Rockville, MD 20850
www.bioplanassociates.com
301-921-5979
ABOUT BIOPLAN ASSOCIATES, INC.