energy-efficiency technologies in northeast asia and the global energy demand sres scenarios

Environmental Energy Technologies Division

Energy-Efficiency Technologies in Northeast Asia and the Global Energy Demand SRES

Scenarios

Nan ZhouEnvironmental Energy Technologies Division

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

14 May 2005


Presentation Contents

• Energy-Efficiency Programs and Technologies in Northeast Asia

• The Impact of Energy Efficient Technologies in Building Sector

• The Implementation of Energy Efficiency Programs in China

• The Disaggregation of the SRES Scenarios : China Buildings Sector Example


Comprehensive Energy-Efficiency Policies and Regulations by Country

China 中国 National Energy Conservation Prospect 2001-2005

Japan 日本Energy Conservation Law, Guideline for Measures to Prevent Global Warming: 2002-2010

Korea 韩国 Second Energy Rationalisation Energy Plan 1999-2003 (10% saving in 2003)

Chinese Taipei 台湾

Energy efficiency and conservation programme:28% reduction in the energy intensity of the GDP by 2020 (16% in 2010)

Russia 俄罗斯Energy efficient economy 2002-2005, target of 100Mtoe; federal law "On energy efficiency" of 1996

IEA energy efficiency\energy efficiency update\jp.pdf

Energy Efficiency: A worldwide Review Indicators, policies, Evaluation, WEC, 2004

综合性能源效率政策

Comprehensive Energy-Efficiency PolicyCountry/Region

国家/地区

•Comprehensive Energy Efficiency policies exists in each country•5 major countries or region were addressed here.


Sectoral Types of Energy-Efficiency Technologies

1. Envelope 2. HVAC 3. Home appliances 4. Office equipment

1. Hybrid Electric Drivetrains 2. Low-Weight Structural Materials 3. Direct Injection Gasoline and Diesel Engines 4. Fuel Cells 5. Aircraft Technology

1. CHP 2. District heating 3. Renewables 4. Nuclear 5. Fuel Cells 6. Gas Turbine 7. Gas Engine 8. Gas Combined Cycle

1. Motors/ Motor Systems 2. Boilers 3.Transformers 4. Process equipment (furnaces, kilns, casters) 5.Industrial heating systems

发电工业建筑交通IndustryTransportationBuildings

Electricity and Heat Supply


Technology Targeted by Buildings Programs

Country/Region

China Building codes for four different climate zones,stricter codes have been implemented in a few regions.

Minimum Standards

MS VL MS VL MS VL MS cl MS VL O VL O cl

Japan Building Codes Building Codes and standard

VS VL VS VL VS VL VS VL VS VL VS VL

Korea Building Codes Standards & Labeling Program

MS ML MS ML MS ML VL

MS ML MS VL VL MS VL

Chinese Taipei

Mandatory Building Codes for both Residential and commercial buildings

Building Codes

MS VL MS VL MS VL O VL O VL MS VL O VL

Russia Codes for residential buildings and public buildings but not commercial buildings

Building codes

MS O MS O O O cs O MS O MS O MS O

source: 1. Energy Efficiency: A worldwide Review Indicators, policies, Evaluation, WEC, 20042. APEC Energy Stamdard and Labeling Information Network : http://www.apec-esis.org/economy.asp?id=163: World Energy Council Survey on Energy Efficiency Policy Measures4. korea energy management corporation：http://www.kemco.or.kr/english/sub03_energyefficiency.asp?defmenu=35. IEA Energy Efficiency Update

Envelope HVAC

Home appliances

MS = Mandatory Standard VS = Voluntary Standard ML = Mandatory Labelling VL = Voluntary Labellingcs = considering standard cl = considering labelling O = no standard or labelling, none under consideration

LightingEquipment

ClothesWashers

and Dryers

CookingEquipment

WaterHeaters

Air Condistione

rs

Refrigerator

Office equipment


Industry Energy-Efficiency Policies and Regulations by Country

China 中国 1. VA (2 steel companies) 2. Equipment and system efficiency standards for boilers, transformers, furnaces, heat transport systems, heaters, cooling supply systems, fans and networkpumps, etc.. 3. Enery auditing 4. ESCOs

Korea 韩国 1. VA 2. Energy Audits for industrial buildings and equipment 3. ESCOs

Chinese Taipei 台湾 1. VA 2. Fiscal incentives 3. Product Efficiency Standards 4. Energy Audits :Mandatory and free for the consumers (100% subsidies)

Japan 日本 1. Keidanren Voluntary Action Plan on the Environment (VA) 2. Energy Audits 3. Energy Conservation Assistance Law 4. ESCOs

Russia 俄罗斯 Energy Auditssource: 1. Energy Efficiency: A worldwide Review Indicators, policies, Evaluation, WEC, 20042. Energy Efficiency Indicators A Study of Energy Efficiency Indicators in APEC Economies, APERC,2001

Country/region Industry国家/地区


The Impact of Energy Efficient Technologies in Building Sector


Advanced Insulation Technologies and Window Technologies

Envelope Insulation Advanced Window Technologies

Technologies Improve insulation in roof, walls, and floor with low U values

New types of windows based on advanced materials

Technologies description Thermal insulation, e.g., mineral wool

• New windows using advanced materials with low thermal conductivity • New windows with built-in solar cells

Status In progress, new materials under development with lower thermal conductivity

continuous improvements

Zero-energy house—new housesRetrofit existing houses

Close to zero net loss through windows

Benefits and CostsCost Moderate Perhaps HighEfficiency Yes YesReleability High AcceptableEnergy Quality Acceptable HighEnvironmental Impact Low LowEconomic Impact Acceptable ModerateCustomer Preference Depending on the cost and

payback timeDepends on cost

RD$D:Goals and Chanllenges

Sorce: Energy End-Use Technologies for the 21st Centry, WEC,2004


The Impact of Energy Efficiency Appliances

China: Cumulative saving from efficient refrigerators by 2001 reached 1.17 billion kWh or RMB 670 million at an electricity price of RMB 0.57 per kWh.

Japan: The energy efficiency standards adopted in the framework of the 1993 Energy Conservation Law calls for the improvement in energy efficiency of:

• 5-6% for single-purpose air-conditioners and combined air-conditioners and cooling units over the FY 1992 results by the end of September 1998.

• 3-7% for fluorescent lamps by 2000 compared to that of FY 1992.• 5-25% for televisions by FY 1998 compared to that of FY 1991.• 3% for copying machines by FY 2000 compared to that of FY 1992.

• 30% for electronic computers by FY 2000 compared to that in FY 1992.

• for magnetic disk units : 60% for single disk units and 80% for multi-disk drives by FY 2000 compared to that of FY 1992.

Russia: By retrofitting general-purpose industrial equipment such as motors, boilers and industrial heating systems with more energy-efficient technologies. Project investment are usually paid back in less than 3 years, and it is estimated that 8.7 Mtoe will be saved annually in 2002-2005, equivalent to 5.8 % of final total energy consumption in 2000.

Chinese Taipei: • Implementation of efficiency standards for electrical appliances has resulted in an average annual peak

load power saving of 130 MW.• The voluntary efficiency labels certify that products are 10 % to 30 % more efficient than required by the

MEPS.• The energy factor of an advanced energy-efficient refrigerator was 23 % higher than that of a baseline

model. It can improve refrigerator efficiency by another 30 to 40 %.


Japan: stricter application of building standards for heat insulation was enforced in April 2001. The new standards could save 20% of energy use for air conditioning and are expected to cost around 1 million Yen(approximately $9,000) per house.

Russia: Energy consumption in these buildings is targeted to decline by 14 to 16 % by 2005 compared to 2000, with total energy savings of 3.2 Mtoe in 2002-2005 and 5.8 Mtoe in 2006-2010. The corresponding cut in government energy bills should amount to 500 million roubles (US$17 million) in 2002-2005 and 3.1 billion roubles (US$100 million) in 2006-2010.

The Impact of Energy Efficiency standards in Building Sector —Building Codes


Feasibility Study of The Impact of Energy Efficient Technologies in Commercial Building

Energy-Efficient Alternatives Considered for a Proposed Demonstration Building

For more information on this phase of the project, please refer to the web site for Accord 21 (American Chinese Coalition Organized for Responsible Development) , the umbrella organization led by NRDC to implement this effort (http://www.nrdc.org/china/ebinx.html).

ID Conditions simulated Explanation

1 Base Case2 Wall/ Roof color Wall and roof absorptivity changed from 0.7 (grey) to 0.3 (off-white)

3 Recessed Windows Window setback of 0.3 m into the wall.4 Window Overhangs 0.60 m Overhang added to all windows.5 Daylighting (Bi-level

Switches)Simple two-step daylighting controls with a lighting setpoint of 200 Lux to simulate use of bi-level lighting switches.

6 Daylighting (Automatic) Continuously dimming daylighting controls with a lighting setpoint of 200 Lux.

7 High Efficiency Lighting Lighting intensity reduced from 14 to 8.3 W/ m2.8 Low-E Windows Windows are changed to Low-E glass with U-value = 0.29 W/ m2K ,

SHGC = 0.28, and TVIS=0.41.9 Reduce Window Height Window height is reduced from Base Case 2.1m to 1.65m10 Staged chillers Plant uses 2 small chillers that can be staged depending on cooling load,

instead of a single central chiller.11 Increased Chiller COP Chiller COP increased by 10% from 4.0 to 4.4.12 Night Ventilation

(Mechanical)Central fans are run at night to precool the building down to 24 C.

13 Night Ventilation (Natural) Windows are left open at night to precool the building down to 24 C.

14 Combined Measure Includes all the above strategies except for 4, 6, and 12.

•The USDOE and China’s MOST joint energy-efficient demonstration building with U.S. technologies•cross-shaped base building were determined and computer simulations used.

heat transfer through the envelope

cooling equipment efficiency


The Energy Use and Cost Saving of Building Shape

Heat Heat Cool Fan Total Total Load Gas Elec Elec Elec Energy Cost

MWh MWh MWh MWh MWh (‘000 Yuan)

Cross-Shaped Base Case 161.6 237.2 160.6 177.3 1112.1 645.4Square-Shaped Base Case 172.2 251.6 180.3 212.4 1167.4 675.7Difference 10.6 14.4 19.7 35.1 55.3 30.2

10.9 16.5 4.7 4.5% Difference 6.2 5.7

The shape of a building has a definite impact on its energy use characteristics. In a heating-dominant situation, a compact shape helps to reduce heat losses through the building shell and can improve the building’s energy efficiency.


Energy and Energy Cost Saving between Base Case and Combined Measure

Site energy refers to the amount of energy consumed at the building; source energy refers to the amount of energy consumed at the power plant to provide that site energy to the consumer.

0

100

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400

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600

700

Base Case Combined

Figure : Comparison of Energy Costs

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1200

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1600

Base Case Combined

Figure : Comparison of Site Energy Use

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Base Case Combined

Equip Elec

Light Elec

Fans & Pumps

Cool Elec

Heat Elec

HWater Gas

Heat Gas

Figure : Comparison of Source Energy Use

•The energy cost savings from incorporating these measures into the Base Case design are estimated to be from 40 to 43%.

•cross-shaped design and the orientation can save an additional 5% or more of the energy costs.

•The total source energy reductions is: about 52% of the electricity savings or about 41% for combined source energy for natural gas and electricity.


Elec. Elec.

price CostkWh/ (y) kWh/(y) (y) (￥/kWh) (￥/year) (￥/year) (￥) (￥) (y)

18-20 watt T12 86.4 1.62 0.84 72.64 113T10 76.9 9.5 1.62 0.84 64.65 7.99 103 9.73 0.21T9 74.2 12.19 1.62 0.84 62.39 10.25 100 12.63 0.2T8 68.3 18.11 1.62 0.84 57.42 15.22 93 19.41 0.16

30 watt T12 129.6 1.85 0.84 108.96 185T10 120.4 9.25 1.85 0.84 101.19 7.78 174 10.88 0.22T9 116.8 12.85 1.85 0.84 98.16 10.8 170 15.44 0.19T8 111.5 18.11 1.85 0.84 93.74 15.23 163 22.26 0.16

36-40 watt T12 172.8 1.85 0.84 145.29 244T10 159.1 13.66 1.85 0.84 133.8 11.49 227 16.89 0.15T9 153.3 19.52 1.85 0.84 128.88 16.41 219 24.51 0.12T8 143.1 29.74 1.85 0.84 120.28 25.01 206 38.08 0.1

LCC △ LCC PaybackAEC AEC difference

Lifetime Elec. Cost difference

Lamp group Options

Impact on Energy Efficient Fluorescent Lamp

The life-cycle cost analysis for Chinese fluorescent lamps

Three most widely used lamp groups are chosen here for further analysis, each characterized by its length (and associated wattage ranges): 600 mm (18–20 W), 900 mm (30 W), and 1200 mm (36–40 W) lamps. These products are distinguished and referenced by their tube diameters (T8–T12); typically the thinner lamps are more energy efficient.

Modest improvements in efficiency in a large market could lead to large aggregate reductions. In the case of China’s 2003 minimum energy efficiency standard for fluorescent lamps, these reductions could amount to 80 TWh in electricity use and almost 100 million tons in CO2 emissions reductions in the next 10 years.

Less than 3 months


A Case Study of the Impact of CHP

Case Installed Capacity

Installed Technology

Installation Cost

Electricity Purchased

Gas (k$) Energy

Cost Total Cost

Energy Cost Reduction

Overall Cost Reduction

Pay Back Year

kW k$ k$ For DER Gas only k$ k$ % % a

Do-Nothing

0 0 0 275.3 0 42.1 317.4 317.4

DER 300 NG--00300

36.4 125.2 112 28.8 266 302.5 -16.2% -4.7% 6.1

DER with CHP

300 NG-ABSHX-00300

58.5 83.8 129.4 6.7 219.9 278.4 -30.7 -12.3% 4.7

Retail

Sport facility

Hotel

Hospital

Office

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000

electricity from CHP

cooling offset by waste heat recovery

utility electricity purchase

NG decrement from CHP

NG for heating

January Peak NG Loads with CHP (kW) July Peak Electric Loads with CHP (kW)

Table : Office Building DER-CAM Results

The peak load shift effect of prototype building

1

2

3

1

Heat recovery for cooling is not economic for sports facility


The Economic and Environmental Effect of Prototype Buildings

0

200

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600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Do-Nothing

DERw ithCHP

Do-Nothing

DERw ithCHP

Do-Nothing

DERw ithCHP

Do-Nothing

DERw ithCHP

Do-Nothing

DERw ithCHP

carb

on

em

issi

on

(t/

a)

Macrogrid On-site generators On-site heating

reduction 22.7%

Office Hospital Hotel Retail Sport Facility

reduction 32.4% reduction 34.3% reduction 34.4%

reduction 22.7%

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800

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1,200

Base CHP Base CHP Base CHP Base CHP Base CHP

Ann

ual c

osts

(k$

)

Direct Gas Use

Gas for DER Fuel

electricity purchase

investment costs

cost saving 12%pay back year4.7 years

Office Hospital Hotel Retail Sport facility





Figure: The economic effect of prototype building

Figure: The effect of prototype building carbon emission reduction


Energy Efficiency Programs in China

With International Cooperation


LBNL China Activities

Equipment

IndustryBuildings

Energy and Emissions Savings

Cross-Cutting

Researchand

Policy Advice

Technical Assistance

Data Acq. &

Analysis

Institution & Capacity

Bldg

•Minimum Standards

•Voluntary Energy Labeling

•Residential Energy Consumption Survey

•Rural Household Energy

•Commercial and Residential Codes

•Demonstration Buildings

•Windows Labeling

•Energy Efficiency Agreements

•Motor Systems Design

•BEST Tool

•Refining & Product Quality

Building Shell•Shanghai ESCO Industry

•Energy Efficiency Investment Analysis

•National Energy Strategy Assessment

•Government Procurement

•Carbon Scenarios Study

•China Energy Databook

close work with China’s authorities for 10 years, since China first modernized their standards and codes.

worked with government and industrial partners to introduce international best practice

publication of compiled China energy and environmental data, and assistance in creating government programs.


Accomplishment To Date• Buildings

– Appliance standards- 10 mandatory equipment efficiency standards- Reach standard

– Energy efficiency labels- 8 voluntary energy efficiency labeling specifications- Bilateral and regional harmonization

– Building codes- Residential and commercial buildings codes in 4 regions; window labeling

• Industry– Industrial energy efficiency agreements

- Pilot program in the iron & steel industry in Shandong; extending nationwide

– Motors systems optimization program• Cross-Cutting

– China’s low-carbon future research- Creation of major new policy analysis tool

– Data compilation and analysis- 6th Edition of China Energy Databook

– Government procurement- New (2005) mandatory policy designed on the US FEMP program

– Energy policy research and analysis– Institution building

- Beijing Energy Efficiency Center, Energy Foundation China Sustainable Energy Program


New technical basis for China’s appliance energy efficiency standards and labeling programs

• Technology Transfer

– Techno-economic analysis for standards (DOE)

– Technical analysis for labeling (EPA)• Methodology

—Engineering, Energy, Environmental, Finance, Social Impact Modeling

• International Collaboration—Harmonization of standards, labeling specifications

and test procedures (same test procedures and product classification)


External Power Supply Collaboration

• China, US EPA, California Energy Commission, Australia Greenhouse Office, EU Code of Conduct

• Agreement on new test procedure

• China led testing program; one dataset created

• Two international coordination meetings

• Coordination on proposed specification and product coverage

• Attendance at stakeholder meetings

• Joint announcement of program and joint US-China launch (1 January 2005)


China and Harmonization

• China is the key global power supply player

– More than 50% of global power supply production

– Number of power supply-containing products in homes and businesses is growing exponentially

– China is experiencing power shortages

• Harmonization recognizes the global market

– China exports over half of its power supply production

– China is a major exporter of power supply-containing products

• Harmonization benefits

– Lower manufacturers’ costs

– Lower testing costs

– Lower program administration costs

– Reduced barriers to trade


Potential Savings in China

• Use of efficient power supplies in 12 major end-uses would reduce consumption by 1.23 TWh (half-percent of total residential energy use) or $86 million in consumer electricity charges

0

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800

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1200

1400

GW

h

Electricity consumption with existing EPS

Electricity consumption with efficient EPS

(3 products not shown)

largest possible savings


Buildings: Training in Developing New Building Codes

New Residential Building Code

New Residential Building Code

Improved New Heating Zone

Residential Building Code

Shanghai CommercialCode

Commercial and Government Building Code (national)


The Industrial Sector Is Extremely Important in China

• Industrial production is necessary for China’s infrastructure development: roads, buildings, equipment

• High levels of industrial production and energy use has serious environmental consequences including air pollution, water pollution, industrial waste, and greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global warming

• The industrial sector represents 68% of all primary energy consumption in China

• There is strong growth in industrial primary energy use

• China is the world’s largest producer of cement, steel, and ammonia and in top-10 for production of aluminum, paper, and petroleum


Efficiency Policy for Iron & Steel Industry

Voluntary Agreement

Sector TargetPolicy

General Economic and Political Environment

China’s Energy Efficiency Programs of the

1980s

Industrial Sector Policies in Developed

Countries

Planned Economy Market EconomyPlanned Economy Market Economy

Iron & steel sector largest in world; consumes 13% of Iron & steel sector largest in world; consumes 13% of total energy in Chinatotal energy in China


Potential Energy Savings: Shandong Province Pilot and China Steel Sector

500

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850

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950

2000 2005 2010

Co

mp

ara

ble

En

erg

y I

nte

nsit

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(kg

ce/t

ste

el)

Jigang BAU

Jigang EEALaigang BAU

Laigang EEAChina average

International advanced

The pilot encompassed two major plants in Shandong. Both were already better than the China average. Both plants agreed to increase their efficiency efforts based on actions identified with the BEST benchmarking tool to achieve by 2005 a level of efficiency equal to the advanced international level in 2000. A recent performance review showed that both plants were well on their way to achieving these targets.


The success of our work in China relies heavily on cooperation with a wide range of organizations and groups

U.S. Government Chinese Government

LBNL

* Other national labs* Universities* NGOs* International organizations

Chinese Counterparts

Foundations

•Funding support from US Government and private foundation sources

•Close work with Chinese government and research centers.

•Inform to US government agencies and support of bilateral US-China energy agreements.

•Internal and external experts


Expected Future Efforts• Energy Consuming Equipment

– Additional product minimum standards

– New appliance standards implementation policy

– Additional labeled products

– Extension of standards & labeling approach to new initiatives such as government procurement

• Buildings

– Technical support for building codes

• Industry

– Expand individual studies to support national and provincial targets

• Cross cutting

– Fiscal and tax policy options for energy efficiency

– Improve data collection, particularly end-use

– Expand efforts to raise profile of energy efficiency policy


Disaggregation of the SRES Scenarios

China Buildings Sector Example


Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

• Produced baseline scenarios to 2100

• Four major storylines: A1, A2, B1, B2

• Four world regions: OECD90, countries undergoing economic reform(REF), Asian nations (ASIA), and Africa and Latin American countries (ALM).

• Four marker scenarios

• Energy use, fossil-fuel CO2 emissions


SRES Storylines

A1: Rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies

B1: Transition to a service-oriented economy with clean and efficient technologies, low population growth

A2: Slower economic and technological growth, high population growth

B2: Intermediate economic growth, moderate population growth, and less rapid but more diverse technological change


World and Asia Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions and Primary Energy Use, 1990-2030

Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions - WorldSRES Marker Scenarios

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

GtC

A1 AIM

A2 ASF

B1 IMAGE

B2 MESSAGE

Primary Energy Use - WorldSRES Marker Scenarios

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Exa

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A1 AIMA2 ASF

B1 IMAGEB2 MESSAGE

Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide Emissions - Asia Region

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

GtC

A1 AIM

A2 ASF

B1 IMAGE

B2 MESSAGE

Primary Energy - Asia

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Exajo

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A1 AIM

A2 ASF

B1 IMAGE

B2 MESSAGE


Motivation

• IPCC-SRES – Most models lacked detail on energy demand by end-

use technology,

– Inadequate ability to capture the potential for efficiency

improvement and the impacts of efficiency programs

– Energy intensity improvement potential not disaggregated by• Energy efficiency• Usage• Technology size/scale

– Lack of intra-region disaggregation

• Some modelers have since begun to include demand-side

technologies – AIM for Asia for example

• Growing interest and demand for end-use global analysis


Near- and Long-Term Goals

• Near-term Goals:

– Initiate a collaborative process for sectoral energy demand analysis

with IPCC authors and other collaborators

– Seek comments and commitments for collection of regional data

from participants

– Goal is to draft base case scenarios, particularly for the sectoral

chapters.

• Long-term goals:

– Develop a data base on demand-side technologies in order to

facilitate the development of energy scenarios

– Assess significance of technology potential and costs in a global

climate change model

– Provide input to LBNL and other energy and climate change models


Database and Model: 10 World Regions

Region Marker Countries Collaborating Partners and Institutions

North America United States Jae Edmonds, PNNL (Modeling technologies)

Charlie Heaps, SEI-Boston

Joan Ogden, Shyam Menon, Attilio Pigneri, UC Davis (Transportation)

Pacific OECD Japan Yonghun Jung, APERC

Western Europe France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, UK

Fridtjof Unander, IEA

Ernst Worrell, Ecofys, IPCC

Central and Eastern Europe

Hungary Diana Vorsatz, IPCC CLA

Former Soviet Union Russia Yonghun Jung, APERC

Sub-Saharan Africa Senegal, South Africa Senegal, South Africa

Middle East and Northern Africa

Egypt Egypt

Latin America Brazil Roberto Schaffer, IPCC, LA

Centrally Planned Asia China Yu Cong, Jiang Kejun, IPCC, LA, China

Other Asia India Joyashree Roy, IPCC, CLA


Data Needs: Drivers, Sector and Technology Structure

Buildings Industry Transport

Activity - population

- # households (electrified/non, urban/rural)

- m2 residential

- m2 commercial

-GDP

- Production

- economic (VA/VOS)

- physical (tonnes)

- personal

-person-km

- freight

-ton-km

Structure - By sub-sector

-residential

-commercial

- By end-use

- heating, cooling

- refrigeration

- appliances

- equipment

- lighting

- By sub-sector

- iron & steel

- non-ferrous

- cement

- pulp & paper

- chemicals

- etc…

- Product mix

- By Mode

- Road

- Rail

- Air

- Water

- By Vehicle Type

- Passenger car

- Truck

-- etc…

Energy Intensity - Technology

- saturation

- energy intensities

- efficiency

- usage

- size/features

- Technology

- saturation


-Efficiency

-Usage

-Technology

- saturation


- efficiency

- usage


China (B2 Marker Scenario): Driver Variables for Bottom-up Characterization of Buildings Sector

Driver Variables 2000 2030 AAGR

GDP (trillion yuan) (2004 projections) 9.1 58.7 6.4%

Population (millions) (2004 projections) 1,268 1,451 0.5%

Share urban population(2004 projections) 36% 61% 1.8%

Commercial building area (billion m2) (BECON adjusted down for B2 energy) 8.0 25.2 3.9%

Per capita living space--urban (m2/person) 19.9 37.0 2.1%

Per capita living space--rural (m2/person) 24.9 38.3 1.4%

Household size--urban (persons) 3.2 3.0 -0.2%

Household size--rural (persons) 4.4 4.1 -0.2%

Building Energy Demand (EJ) (Based on B2) 19.2 33.8 2.2%

Primary Energy - Asia and China

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1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Pri

ma

ry E

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rgy

(E

J)

Asia

China

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Pri

mary

En

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y (

EJ)

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120

Transport

Industry

Buildings


China Buildings Sector (B2 Marker Scenario)Variables for Residential Buildings

Drivers

• population

• household sizes

• GDP, income

• household area per capita

• heating/cooling loads per m2

(including infiltration)

• lighting loads

• urbanization rates

• rural/urban splits

• heating/non-heating region splits

Technical characteristics• saturation levels of alternative

devices for each end use– cooking

– appliances (refrigerator, washing machine, TV, other)

– lighting (traditional, efficient)

– space heating

– space cooling

• energy types for devices– electricity

– fossil fuels

– biofuels

• energy & emissions intensities– by device, over time


China Buildings Sector (B2 Marker Scenario)Variables for Commercial Buildings

Drivers

• population, GDP, income

• commercial area per capita

• heating/cooling loads per m2

• lighting loads per m2

• heating/non-heating region splits

Building types

• hotel

• office

• Hospital

• Retail

• school

• other

Technical characteristics

• shares or saturation levels of alternative devices for each end use– space heating

– space cooling

– lighting

– other

• energy types for devices– electricity

– fossil fuels

• energy & emissions intensities– by device

– over time


China Buildings Sector (B2 Marker Scenario)Bottom-up Modeling Results (primary energy)

EJ Share

Energy Demand 2000 2030 2000 2030 AAGR

Residential buildings 13.4 17.6 63% 49% 0.9%

Commercial buildings 7.8 18.2 37% 51% 2.9%

Urban buildings 11.8 29.5 56% 82% 3.1%

Rural buildings 9.4 6.3 44% 18% -1.3%

Coal 4.3 4.1 20% 12% -0.1%

Natural gas 0.3 6.9 1% 19% 11.1%

Oil products 0.7 1.9 3% 5% 3.5%

Electricity 6.8 14.4 32% 40% 2.6%

Delivered heat 1.1 6.4 5% 18% 6.0%

Biomass 8.1 2.2 38% 6% -4.3%

China B2 Buildings

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Pri

mar

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(EJ) Rural

Urban

China B2 Buildings

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Biomass

Natural gas

Coal

Oil products

Electricity

Delivered heat

China B2 Buildings

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2000 2030

Pri

mar

y E

nerg

y (E

J)

Commercial

Residential


Example: Urban Residential RefrigeratorsEnergy Demand

ii refi

refurbrefurburbref UECsharesaturationhouseholdsE Indicator Units 2000 2010 2020 2030

Urban households millions 142 197 250 292Saturation of refrigerators % 80% 85% 90% 95%

Shares:

ordinary % 60% 60% 60% 60%

efficient % 30% 30% 30% 30%

very efficient % 10% 10% 10% 10%

Unit energy consumption:

ordinary kWh/yr 511 402 397 336

efficient kWh/yr 410 321 318 269 very efficient kWh/yr 327 257 255 215


Example: Urban Residential RefrigeratorsB2 simulation results

China B2: Urban Refrigerators

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2010 2020 2030

TW

h Efficient

Ordinary

Very Efficient

China B2: Urban Appliances

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000 2010 2020 2030

TW

h

Refrigerators

Other

Washing Machines

TVs

•Refrigerators are a major electricity user

•They will account for over 40% of appliance energy use (excluding room air conditioners) and 20% of urban household electricity use in 2030.


Example: Urban Residential RefrigeratorsSensitivity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2000 2010 2020 2030

Un

it E

ne

rgy

Co

ns

um

pti

on

(k

Wh

/yr)

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Ind

ex

(2

00

0 =

10

0)

Efficient

Ordinary size index

saturation index

Very Efficient

Current data on the Chinese market and information on possible future efficiency standards are used.

Three efficiency classes in each of three typical refrigerator sizes (170 liters, 220 liters, and 270 liters).

Average intensity are assumed to decline over the 2000 to 2030 period,

The average size of new refrigerators is assume to rise, as well as the rate of ownership, which increases from 80% of urban households to 95%.


As larger refrigerators grow to dominate energy consumption, the share of efficient models also rises.

China B2: Urban Refrigerators

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2010 2020 2030

TW

h Efficient

Ordinary

Very Efficient

270 liter

220 liter

170 liter

220 liter

170 liter

Efficient

Ordinary

Very Efficient

Efficient

Ordinary

Very Efficient


The Global Energy Demand Database: A Shared Resource for Modelers Worldwide

Vision: The GED Database will be a collaboratively designed and created resource, maintained by LBNL for the use of all contributors. It will be a shared resource for project participants and collaborators.

• Ability of participating groups to provide data and documentation will determine GED database content.

• Each sector in each region will be built up from detailed data on energy consumption, technology, and drivers.

• Users are free to determine applications.

– For example, GED database used in the LBNL GED Model will allow simulation of demand consistent with existing scenarios as well as creation of new scenarios.


2005 Schedule

• January - April:

– Identify region/country/sector experts;

– LBNL to develop data collection spreadsheets, and aggregate default data

– Spreadsheets with default data sent to experts in April

• April - June:

– Experts prepare detailed data for the model

– Spreadsheets returned to LBNL in June

• June- September:

– LBNL to begin data analysis and scenario disaggregation

– Preliminary disaggregated baseline scenario developed

– Results provided to AR4 writing teams


• Thank you!

• 谢谢！• どうもありがとう


Data Needs: Kaya Identity Applied at the End-Use Sector and Technology Level

Buildings Example

iRBii

iiRB EIH

F

PE ,,

ERB,I = energy demand in the residential buildings sector in region i,Pi = population in region i,Fi = number of persons per household (family) in region i,Hi = average floor area per household in region i in m2, andEIRB,I= average energy intensity in the residential sector in region i in MJ/m2-year.

OPTION

k

OPTION

m

OPTION

niii

jjijiiiinm

im

imiRB RLCUECpSCSHH

F

PE ,,,,

,

,,

k = energy type m = locale type (urban, rural)n = housing type (detached home, multifamily unit, other home)SHi = space heating energy intensity in residential buildings in region i in MJ/m2-year,SCi = space cooling energy intensity in residential buildings in region i in MJ/m2-year,j = type of appliance or end-use device,pi,j = penetration of appliance or device j in region i,UECi,j = average energy intensity of appliance j in region i Ci = average cooking and water heating energy use per household in region i, Li = average lighting energy use per household in region i, andRi = residual household energy use in region i.

End-use Sector Level

Technology Level


Primary Energy - Asia

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Exa

jou

les

SRES B2 Marker Scenario - Asia Sector Disaggregation

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Prim

ary

Ener

gy (E

J)

-

50

100

150

200

250

Transport

Industry

Buildings

Asia


SRES B2 Marker Scenario - ChinaSector Disaggregation

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Pri

mar

y E

ner

gy

(EJ)

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

Transport

Industry

Buildings

China

Asia

China

Primary Energy - Asia and China

-

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Pri

mar

y E

ner

gy

(EJ)

Asia

China


Table 4. Annual Energy Costs calculated by DOE-2 for Proposed Demonstration Building

(years) (years)Base Case 410 1112 69 577 645 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.Light Wall and Roof Color

418 1102 70 571 641 4.1 0 0 0 0Recessed Windows 419 1086 70 563 634 11.8 0 0 0 0Window Overhangs 416 1091 70 566 636 9.7 63 63 6.5 6.5Daylighting (Bi-level Switch)

438 844 74 421 494 151.1 99 99 0.7 0.7Daylighting (Automatic) 438 841 74 419 492 153 320 320 2.1 2.1Energy Efficient Lighting 441 877 74 451 525 120.6 66 346 0.5 2.9Low-E Windows 430 1020 72 530 602 43.5 130 1156 3 26.5Reduce Window Height 415 1080 70 560 630 15.6 -40 -40 0 02-Stage Chillers 410 1093 69 567 636 9.6 250 250 25.9 25.9Increased Chiller COP 410 1099 69 570 639 6.7 100 100 15 15Night Venting (Mechanical)

450 1187 76 596 671 -25.8 0 0 * *Night Venting (Natural) 450 1081 76 560 636 9.8 0 0 0 0Combined Measure 515 584 87 292 378 267.4 579 1680 2.2 6.3

* Full operating conditions

('000 yuan) ('000 yuan)

Nat. Gas Cost

Total Energy

Cost

Energy Cost

Savings

Incre- mental 1st

Cost

* measure is counterproductive and increases energy costs; therefore there is no payback period.

Nat. Gas Use

Elec. Use

Elec. Cost

Market Comp.

1st Cost

Market Comp.

Payback August 1999 Design

Incre- mental

Payback(MWh) ('000 yuan)


Energy and Energy Cost Saving between Base Case and Combined Measure

Heat Load Heat Gas HWater Gas

Heat Elec

Cool Elec

Fans & Pumps

Light Elec

Equip Elec

Total Elec

(MWh) (MWh)

Base Case 40 29 4 83 92 281 116 577Combined 57 29 5 31 40 103 111 292Savings 18 0 1 -52 -52 -178 -4 -285% Savings 44% 0% 24% -62% -56% -63% -4% -49%

Base Case 162 237 173 9 161 177 543 223 1112Combined 241 342 173 11 63 80 207 223 584Savings 79 105 0 2 -98 -97 -336 0 -528% Savings 49% 44% 0% 28% -61% -55% -62% 0% -48%

Base Case 237 173 31 589 651 1992 819 4081Combined 342 173 40 230 294 759 819 2143Savings 105 0 9 -359 -357 -1232 0 -1939% Savings 44% 0% 28% -61% -55% -62% 0% -48%

Notes :

August 1999 Design

-41%

2658-1834

Source Energy Consumption (MWHe)2, 3

4491

-423 -449-28% -31%

1522 14471099 997

Site Energy Consumption (MWHe)-41%

378-267

Energy Cost (,000 yuan)1

645

(MWh) (MWh) (MWh) (MWh)

Total w/ Gas Heat

Total w/ Steam Heat

Site energy refers to the amount of energy consumed at the building; source energy refers to the amount of energy consumed at the power plant to provide that site energy to the consumer.


The Impact of Energy Efficient Technologies in Building Sector —DHC and

CHP

China: District heating plants provided space heat accounting for nearly one-eighth of total floor space with space heating. The thermal efficiency is 80 percent for CHP plants and 70 percent for district boilers, far exceeding the 50 percent efficiency of the small-scale boilers that they replaced. In 1998, the 120 TWh of power and 1.036 billion GJ of heat generated by CHP plants saved 41million tonnes of coal while reducing particulate emissions by 620,000 tonnes, sulphur dioxide emissions by 820,000 tonnes, and carbon dioxide emissions by 1.8 million tonnes. Local air quality has improved a lot due to CHP plants. For example, total suspended particulates in Mudanjiang city during the winter fell from 800 mg to 369 mg per cubic metre after a CHP plant entered service.


Space heating

Space cooling

Cooking

Water heating

Lighting

Appliances

Single-family dwellings

Multi-family dwellings

Other dwellings

Electrified Non-electrified

Urban Rural

Electrified Non-electrified

Furnace

Electric resistance

Heat pump

District heating

Stove

Single-family dwellings

Multi-family dwellings

Other dwellings

Country X

Region A

LBNL Model Structure (LEAP): Intra-Regions, LBNL Model Structure (LEAP): Intra-Regions, Sectors, End-Uses and TechnologiesSectors, End-Uses and Technologies

Refrigerators

Clothes washers

Dish washers

TVs

Others

end uses technologies energy types

• countries

• regions

• locales

•electrification status

•dwelling types

• end uses

• energy types

• technologies

Electricity

Gas fuels

Liquid fuels

Solid fossil fuels

Biomass fuels

energy-efficiency technologies in northeast asia and the global energy demand sres scenarios

Documents