may 2017 - ipsos · 2017-05-31 · with the conservatives and labour in a close battle for second...
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Highlights | May 2017 | Public |
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May 2017Ipsos MORI Highlights
Seven in ten expect a Conservative majority on 8 June
Labour vote share rises – but their support is much softer than Conservatives’
Brexit and NHS are the joint top issue for Britons
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The British election campaign is now alive, having seemed a walkover for Theresa May when she called it. At the end of May, she still has a vote share that would mean a winning majority, but Jeremy Corbyn’s surprise recovery during the campaign has meant at least the appearance of a real fight. Although no-one has ever become Prime Minister without being rated best on the economy and as having the best leader. On these and other fundamentals, the Conservatives remain well ahead of Labour, even as the horse race tightens.
We will publish our final prediction poll on the morning of June 8, and our national exit poll, designed to predict seat share for each party, for the BBC, Sky and ITV will be broadcast as the polls close at 10pm.
It’s going to be an exciting week!
Our video guide to understanding the polls is online here.
What ever happens in the election, the fundamental divides that were crystallised in Brexit, and with the election of Trump in the US, will remain for some time. New analysis we released this month shows how both Labour and Tory Leave voters are at odds when it comes to the role of the state, and whether we should have a more equal or individualistic society. Leave voters are united across party lines when it comes to preferring Britain as it was in the past, and thinking immigrants take jobs from UK workers. Remain voters of either party unite around opposite views.
Elsewhere in this round up we include our latest Millennial Myths and Realities report, for example, they are no more ethical than older people, nor are they slimmer at the same age.
We have also included our Global Trends Report – which is all available here. This is intended as a resource for you to dip into, with over 400 questions on everything from sex, shopping, brands, government and more across 23 countries.
I have included our latest in-depth country reports on Italy, Latam and Turkey, and much more on concept development, media and more.
When I next write it will be with PM Corbyn or May - only a week to go!
Ben PageChief Executive, Ipsos MORI
07917 603356
[email protected]@ipsos.com
WELCOME TO MAY HIGHLIGHTS
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POLITICS
General Election 2017 Seven in ten expect a Conservative majority on 8 June Labour vote share rises – but their support is much softer
than Conservatives’ Brexit and NHS are the joint top issue for Britons Most think Theresa May will not achieve her target to cut
net migration to the “tens of thousands” SNP look set to be biggest party in upcoming election Analysis of interaction between leave/remain and
Conservative/Labour supporters
SOCIETY
IPSOS MORI’S MAY HIGHLIGHTS
INTERNATIONAL Flair Italy 2017: The bespoke reality The economic situation in LatAm Turkey referendum
Millennial Myths and Realities Global Trends 2017
HEALTH Polling for The Health Foundation Turning up the volume: unheard voices of people with
dementia Women’s health concerns in the UK
ECONOMY & BUSINESS The Millennial Influence - 2017
OPINION
1983 and All That The Brexit election? Much quicker results flow on 8 June 2017? Labour is up in the polls, but the Tories still appear beyond
its reach
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POLITICS
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You can view all our latest polling, analysis and trend data for General Election 2017 via the link below.
This page consolidates our latest polls as well as a video by Ben Page providing 7 simple lessons for understanding polls.
There is also an infographic detailing the current political triangle.
GENERAL ELECTION 2017
A consolidated view of Ipsos MORI polling and analysis of the 2017 UK General Election with our key long term social and political trends.
Read more •••
Download the infographic
Highlights | May 2017 | Public |
There are doubts over both parties when it comes to keeping promises or improving people’s standard of living. Expectations are though higher that the Conservatives will get a good deal for Britain in Brexit negotiations, while Labour is thought to be better news for welfare state services.
Key findings include:
• A large majority of the public (70%) expect a Conservative majority on June 8th (including half of Labour supporters).
• Two in five (42%) think that the Conservatives will win a majority of more than 100 seats while 28% expect them to win with a majority fewer than 100. One in ten (10%) think Labour will become the majority party in parliament.
• When it comes to Brexit, one of the two most important voting decision issues, three in five believe the Conservatives will get Britain a good deal in negotiations with the European Union (60% will, 29% not) compared to three in ten who think Labour would (31% will, 57% will not).
SEVEN IN TEN EXPECT A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY ON 8 JUNE
Ipsos MORI's May 2017 Political Monitor shows that a majority of Britons expect income tax to rise no matter who wins the General Election.
Read more •••Base: 1,053 British adults 18+, 15th-17th May 2017
If a conservative/labour government is elected after the next general election, do you think it will or will not…?
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Key findings include:
• Record scores for Conservatives as party with best policies, team of leaders, most clear and united
• NHS and Brexit joint top issues when it comes to deciding who to vote for
• The Conservatives currently stand on 49% (nc from April) with Labour at 34% (up 8 points), the Liberal Democrats down six to 7% and UKIP with 2%.
• There is a softness in the Labour support, however, there is a clear party distinction when it comes to strength of support – 77% of Conservative supporters say they’ve definitely decided who they’ll vote for (22% may change their mind) compared with 57% of Labour supporters (42% may change their mind).
• Jeremy Corbyn has seen some improvement in his leader satisfaction ratings although the Prime Minister remains the leader with much the strongest scores.
LABOUR VOTE SHARE RISES – BUT THEIR SUPPORT IS MUCH SOFTER THAN CONSERVATIVES’
With just three weeks to go until Britain goes to the polls Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor shows the Conservatives holding a strong lead despite an improvement for Labour.
Read more •••
Base: 1,053 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th May 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 786. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE.
How would you vote if there were a general election tomorrow?
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Key findings include:
• Concern around the NHS rose slightly by 3 points (also at 48%) making it the joint top concerning issue facing the country. Fieldwork was carried out before the announcement of the General Election after Easter.
• Moreover, three in ten (31%) members of the public name Brexit as the single biggest issue facing Britain – (a five percentage point decline from last month’s score), eighteen percentage points higher than the next single biggest issue –the NHS, on 13%.
• The top three issues are the same for Conservative and Labour supporters (Brexit, the NHS, and immigration) but Conservative supporters place more emphasis on Brexit and immigration while Labour supporters put more on other issues such as housing, unemployment and poverty and inequality.
• The issue with the most movement from March is defence, foreign policy and terrorism – jumping four spots to the sixth most concerning issue.
BREXIT AND NHS ARE THE JOINT TOP ISSUE FOR BRITONS
Concern over Brexit remaining high with half (48%) mentioning it as one of the most important issues facing Britain.
Read more •••Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 31 March – 10 April 2017
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Top mentions % Change since March
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Key findings include:
• Two in three (68%) say that it is either not at all likely or fairly unlikely that the Conservatives will be able to achieve this target while just 18% think that they will.
• Nevertheless, when it comes to deciding what a “sustainable” level of net migration should be only one in five (20%) think this is would be 100,000 or above (after being told that it currently stands at 273,000).
• Half (49%) think it should be 100,000 or less and 30% are unsure.
• The public have different views on whether special visas should be offered to EU citizens for different jobs.
• When it comes to allowing special visas for certain worker types baristas were not amongst those which the public believe should be offered such as visa – one in three (33%) think they should while half (52%) think they shouldn’t.
MOST THINK THERESA MAY WILL NOT ACHIEVE HER TARGET TO CUT NET MIGRATION TO THE “TENS OF THOUSANDS”
Most Britons are pessimistic about Theresa May’s likelihood of success to hit her target to cut net migration to the “tens of thousands” in the next few years.
Read more •••Base: 1061 British adults, aged 18-75 years, surveyed online between 26-28 April 2017
Do you think that special work visas should or should not be offered to EU citizens who are coming to Britain to work in the following jobs:
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Key findings include:
• Among those who expressed a voting preference and who are very likely or certain to vote in the election on June 8th, 43% said they would vote for the SNP, while 25% back the Scottish Conservatives and 25% back Scottish Labour.
• Meanwhile 5% said they would vote for the Scottish Liberal Democrats while 1% would vote for the Scottish Greens and 1% for UKIP.
• Elsewhere, among those who would be likely or certain to vote in an independence referendum, 47% said they would vote Yes (-3 pts from March) while 53% would vote No (+ 3 pts from March).
SNP LOOK SET TO BE BIGGEST PARTY IN UPCOMING ELECTION
With just over a week to go before the general election, the poll for STV News suggests the SNP is on course to win most votes with the Conservatives and Labour in a close battle for second place.
Read more •••
Base: All giving a General Election voting intention = 853; all certain to vote = 797 Data collected among 1,016 Scottish adults 18+, 22nd - 27th May 2017
How do you intend to vote in the General Election?
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Key findings include:
• On some attitudes people are more united by whether they voted Leave or Remain rather than whether they are a Conservative or Labour supporter despite 27% of Labour supporters who voted to leave in the EU Referendum, compared to 60% of Conservative supporters.
• The similarities among leavers and remainers across the political divide include: immigration, nostalgia for the past and distrust in globalisation.
• However, on a number of other issues, such as whether society should emphasise collectivism over individualism, party political lines are still very strong.
• Leavers and remainers demonstrate different views on the current state of the British social landscape. Those who voted leave are more likely to agree to feel nostalgic for the past – across both the “Conservative Leave” and “Labour Leave” groups.
ANALYSIS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN LEAVE/REMAIN AND CONSERVATIVE/LABOUR SUPPORTERS
New Ipsos MORI analysis shows Brexit has created new political dividing lines on some issues.
Read more •••
Base: 599 Conservative voters who voted leave in the referendum, 401 conservative voters who voted remain in the referendum, 171 Labour voters who voted leave in the referendum, and 464 Labour voters who voted remain in the referendum, completing an online panel survey between the 13-20th October 2016
To what extent to you agree or disagree…Things in Britain were better in the past
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SOCIETY
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‘Millennials’ is an abused term, misused to the point where it’s often mistaken for just another meaningless buzzword. But its original and conventional use is far from empty.
‘Millennials’ is a working title for the c.15-year birth cohort born around 1980-1995, which has unique, defining traits.
Unfortunately, many of the claims made about millennial characteristics are simplified, misinterpreted or just plain wrong, which can mean real differences get lost.
Equally important are the similarities between other generations – the attitudes and behaviours that are staying the same are sometimes just as important and surprising.
You can read the full and summary reports via the link below.
MILLENNIAL MYTHS AND REALITIES
A major new Ipsos MORI report into Millennials reveals the truth about the “most derided generation”.
Read more •••
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It provides a unique snapshot of the world today and helps explain trends in business, society and politics. The best way to really understand the data is to access the charts via the Ipsos MORI Global Trends 2017 website, but here are a few highlights to give you an idea of what you might find amongst the 400 questions asked.
What we think in Britain…We are the most pessimistic country on Earth when it comes to the future of our healthcare, with only 8% of British respondents feeling that the quality of their healthcare will improve in the coming years, compared to 29% globally.
Quick facts on what people think globally…
Society - 76% of people globally feel that their economies are rigged to the advantage of the rich and powerful
Environment - 47% of people globally say that scientists don’t really know what they are talking about on environmental issues
IPSOS MORI GLOBAL TRENDS 2017
The new 2017 Global Trends Survey is here and it is bigger than ever, based on 18,000 interviews across 23 countries. The biggest survey of its kind finds eight new trends.
Read more •••
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HOUSING
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Key findings include:
• Following a 14 percentage point drop in the HPO in October 2016 the current survey shows the first signs that confidence in the housing market is rising, nine months after the Brexit vote.
• This figure is driven by a one percentage point decrease in expectations that average UK property prices will be lower in twelve months’ time (down from 15% in October 2016) and a corresponding one percentage point increase in expectations that average UK prices will be higher in a years’ time (up from 57%).
• Buying sentiment has continued a steady decline, dropping by three percentage-points from +17 in October 2016, and is at the lowest point since September 2014, whereas the selling sentiment shows an eight percentage-point increase (up from +9 in October 2016).
SIGNS OF RISING CONFIDENCE IN HOUSE PRICE OUTLOOK FOLLOWING POST-BREXIT DIP
The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT) shows a modest increase in the House Price Outlook (HPO), up from +42 in October 2016 to +44 in March 2017.
Read more •••
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ECONOMY &BUSINESS
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Key findings include:
• 51% of all respondents still perceive that corrupt practices happen widely in business in their country
• 77% of board members or senior managers say they could justify unethical behavior to help a business survive
• Only 21% of respondents are aware their company has a whistleblowing hotline
Despite sporadic progress in tackling bribery and corruption across Europe, the Middle East, India and Africa (EMEIA), 51% of respondents to the biennial EY EMEIA Fraud Survey still perceive the problem to be widespread in their country. Twenty-seven percent of all respondents state that it is common practice in their business sector to use bribery to win contracts, including 14% of respondents in Western Europe.
THE MILLENNIAL INFLUENCE - 2017
How Millennials of Asia will shape tomorrow's payments landscape.
Read more •••
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HEALTH
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The Health Foundation commissioned Ipsos MORI to carry out a survey with the general public in Great Britain about their views towards funding of the NHS, their opinions and their concerns about the NHS and social care.
Key findings include:
• 88% of people - think that the NHS should be protected from any cuts. This is an increase of 3% points from when this was last asked in March 2015
• Fewer people think that care for the elderly (40%) and defence (12%) should be protected.
• 12 % of people think the standard of NHS care has got better over the last year, 44% of people think it has got worse over the last year
• 14% think it will get better over the next year, almost half (48%) think it will get worse.
POLLING FOR THE HEALTH FOUNDATION
Nearly two thirds (64%) of adults aged 15+ in Britain think that taxes should be increased as a way of funding the NHS.
Read more •••
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The aim of the research was to produce a rich and detailed understanding of the day to day lives of both people living with dementia and their carers, and to identify how people would like to be supported.
In-depth interviews were undertook with people with dementia to get people’s views and feelings and build a rich picture of how the condition can affect people.
They spoke to carers and the public, reaching almost 4,000 people in total, to present a composite picture of dementia today. The research includes the words of people living with dementia.
The findings from this research have helped to inform and support Alzheimer’s Society’s new five-year strategy.
TURNING UP THE VOLUME: UNHEARD VOICES OF PEOPLE WITH DEMENTIA
In 2016 Ipsos MORI was commissioned to conduct an ambitious piece of research on behalf of Alzheimer’s Society. A ground-breaking look at the real challenge of living with dementia in the UK today.
Read more •••
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Key topics to understand included, but were not limited to:
• Personal health, attitudes to health, health goals
• Sources of information and advice
• Medication and health checks taken
• Supplements and probiotics used
• Experience and attitudes relating to mental wellbeing, menopause and sexual health
WOMEN’S HEALTH CONCERNS IN THE UK
Research commissioned by the Daily Mail in association with LloydsPharmacy looked into key health concerns and attitudes towards health information providers of women aged 30-80 in the UK.
Read more •••
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MEDIABRANDS &COMMUNIATIONS
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You’ve narrowed down the best insights, benefits, and reasons to believe to include in your concept. What you need to know is which combination of these elements will yield the greatest consumer appeal – without relying on methods that favour close-in ideas.
This Ipsos white paper present the findings of our research on this subject, setting out a roadmap for finding the best combination of elements for a concept.
Armed with this information, our clients can choose the best possible concept to move forward with, understand its strategic role in the innovation portfolio (through its Archetype profile), and predict how well it will perform in-market.
AN EFFICENT ALTERNATIVE TO CONCEPT OPTIMIZATION
In real life, who has time for two steps when you can do it in one?
Read more •••
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INTERNATIONAL
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Italy no longer trusts in EuropeIt seems that the foundation of the pact has been called into question. Many associate the EU with ongoing austerity. Meanwhile there is deep disapproval of Europe’s response to the migrant crisis.
Italy’s families are in an increasingly precarious situationAs many as 97% of families find themselves in an income situation equal to or lower than in 2005. Few anticipate growth in consumption and especially not in employment.
Italy has seen a boom in organic foodGrowing by 11% between 2010 and 2014, the organic food market has snowballed in recent times. The estimated turnover is around €3 billion and involves an increasingly high number of operators (over 55,000 companies).
FLAIR ITALY 2017: THE BESPOKE REALITY
The latest report in our Ipsos Flair series is on Italy, a country in a precarious situation
Read more •••
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Ipsos’ latest survey of opinion leaders in Latin America, paints a contrasting picture of the state of the region’s economies.
The results of the survey find Uruguay, Peru and Chile are currently best placed economically.
Meanwhile, Argentina, Colombia and Peru again rank highest in terms of economic prospects over the coming year.
On the other hand, Mexico’s economy is expected to worsen over the next year. Some 42% expect a decline, while 30% think the economic situation will get worse in Cuba.
Meanwhile Venezuela’s economy is viewed with the greatest concern. Just 2% say the economy is in good shape. And 84% say things will get worse over the next year, with just 4% saying things will improve.
THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN LATAM
What do key opinion leaders think about Latin America?
Read more •••
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On the day of the referendum on the proposed constitutional amendment package, Ipsos in Turkey’s Social Research Institute conducted an exit poll for CNN TURK TV Channel.
Some of the insights from the survey:
• “Yes” votes mainly came from 25–44 age, male, middle school or lower graduate voters while “No” votes were more concentrated in the 18-24 and 45-64 age groups, as well as among females and the better educated.
• The majority of young first time voters voted “No”.
• 90% of the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) supporters said “Yes” in this referendum. Meanwhile, the majority of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) supporters said “No” (95% and 91% respectively).
TURKEY REFERENDUM
Ipsos in Turkey’s analysis of voting patterns in the recent constitutional referendum
Read more •••
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OPINION
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The Conservative/Labour divide isn’t dead yet writes Kully Kaur-Ballagan for The Times Red Box.
David Cowling says 2017 will be the first general election in 25 years to be held with no other elections taking place on the same day meaning a much faster flow of individual results.
The Brexit election? Much quicker results flow on 8 June 2017?
In a guest blog, David Cowling ponders the Labour Party's 1983 election campaign and whether it is set for a similar performance in 2017.
1983 and All That
Read more ••• Read more ••• Read more •••
IPSOS MORI OPINION
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Ben Page comments for The Times Red Box on whether Labour should be take heart from our latest Political Monitor polling.
Three takeaways from a Halifax discussion among working class Leave voters for the BBC.
Labour is up in the polls, but the Tories still appear beyond its reach
Life outside the bubble
Georgina Clarke and Katherine Shipton examine our most recent Captains of Industry survey and ask why customer experience is not at the top of the agenda for b2b organisations.
Getting CX into B2B Boardrooms
Read more ••• Read more ••• Read more •••
IPSOS MORI OPINION
www.ipsos-mori.com/
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For more details on any of the studies featured here, please contact your usual account representative or alternatively get in touch with
Caroline WalkerHead of [email protected]
All methodological details are available via the website links
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