mid year econ briefing sept 17 sec ralph recto

8/7/2019 Mid Year Econ Briefing Sept 17 Sec Ralph Recto

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The Government of the

Republic of the Philippines

Real SectorReal Sector

Secretary Ralph G. RectoNational Economic and Development Authority

The Philippines:The Philippines:Addressing Challenges, Staying the CourseAddressing Challenges, Staying the Course

Philippine Economic BriefingPhilippine Economic BriefingSeptember 2008September 2008


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Secure in the global storm

Foundation of fiscal reformsFalling national government deficit: from P 187billion in 2004 to P33 billion currentlyOn track to balance the NG budget by 2010Posting public sector surpluses

Falling debt to GDP ratiosMore funds to invest in infrastructureGross international reserves at an all-time high inJuly ($ 36.9 billion); healthy balance of paymentssurplus


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Philippine economy slows down.Philippine economy slows down.

5.9

8.0

5.75.5

6.9

2.3

4.2

5.4

7.2

5.45.0

6.4

4.4

1.8

4.64.9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

H1

GNP GDP

Source: NSCBSource: NSCB


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Source: NSCBSource: NSCB

GrowthRate

(y-on-y, %)

1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 1st Half

2007 2008 2007 2008 2007 2008

GNP 7.3 5.8 9.8 5.5 8.6 5.7

GDP 7.0 4.7 8.3 4.6 7.6 4.6

NFIA 11.3 18.3 25.3 14.1 18.7 15.9

AFF 4.0 2.7 4.2 4.9 4.1 3.7

INDUSTRY 6.6 3.0 10.3 4.8 8.6 3.9

SERVICES 8.4 6.5 8.4 4.3 8.4 5.4

First Semester 2008First Semester 2008Economic PerformanceEconomic Performance


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Some countries in the region postedSome countries in the region postedslower Q2 2008 growthslower Q2 2008 growth

8.3

4.6

16.4

10.1

6.2

4.2

6.4 6.4

9.1

2.1

4.9 4.8 4.35.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

grow

thrate,%

Philippines China Hongkong Indonesia Singapore South Korea Thailand

Source: Country websites

2007Q2 2008Q2


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Republic of the PhilippinesEmerging Growth ScenarioEmerging Growth Scenario

Source: NEDA, DBCCSource: NEDA, DBCC

INDICATORS 20072008

Target

2009

Target

GNP

(Emerging) 8.0 5.9-6.7 6.9-7.8GNP MTPDP 6.9-7.8 7.0-8.0 7.2-8.2

GDP(Emerging)

7.2 5.5-6.4 6.1-7.1

GDP MTPDP 6.5-7.5 6.8-7.8 7.0-8.0

Agriculture 4.9 4.3-5.2 5.1-6.2

Industry 7.1 5.0-6.4 6.2-7.1

Services 8.1 6.3-6.9 6.5-7.4


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ChallengesChallenges

Poor absorptive capacities

Volatility in world oil

Higher food prices

Inflationary pressures

Export outlook affected by the slowdownin the economy of export markets


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Republic of the PhilippinesStrategies to boost growthStrategies to boost growth

Improve the absorptive capacity of government

agencies, especially in public works;

Improve NG-LGU coordination and encourage more

private sector participation in infrastructure

Encourage exporting firms to diversify, innovate, and

technologically upgrade their products; Continue strong support for agriculture; and

Expand trade, investment, and tourism with China

Attract more investment from the Middle East


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Critical Investments: HEARTSCritical Investments: HEARTS

ecurity/Shelter/ Social Protection/ Subsidies

ealth

ducation

griculture

oads/ Bridges/ Railroads

echnology/ Tourism

H

E

A

RT

S


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Upgrading the countrys infrastructure

Comprehensive and Integrated Infrastructure Program (CIIP)

expanded infrastructure portion of the Medium-Term PublicInvestment Program (MTPIP)includes PPP and JV projectsexcludes purely LGU-funded projectsfinancing scheme: public and private sector sources

a) ODA loans;b) GAA;c) NG-LGU cost sharing;d) PPP/Joint Venture (JV);

e) Corporate funds; andf) Proceeds accruing from those mandated by law (i.e. EPIRA).


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Communications

56.49

3%

Social

Infrastructure

167.91

8%

Support to ARCs

31.88

2%

Relending

Programs

36.69

2%Transportation

754.69

38%

Power and

Electrification

611.0730%

Water Resources347.53

17%

2008-2010 and beyondTotal investments =PhP 2,006.26 billion

* PhP1,149.24 B = 4.69%of GDP (2008-2010)

CIIP Investment Requirement

by Sector


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CIIP Investment Requirement

by Financing Source

(2008- 2010 and beyond in PhP Billion)

LGUs

10

0.5%Other

Sources

118

6%

Private

613

31%GOCCs94

5%

GFI

26

1.3%

NG

1,145

56%


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Roads and

Bridges

327.48

44%

Rail

Transport

292.9939%

Water

Transport

24.8

3%

Air

Transport

109.42

14%

2008-2010 and beyondTotal investments =PhP 754 69 billion

PhP402.55 B = 1.66% ofGDP (2008-2010)

Transportation Sector


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Roads and BridgesRoads and Bridges

Magapit-Sta. Ana Road (Magapit-Mission Section), Cagayan

Tarlac-La Union Toll ExpresswayPhase 1 (TLUTE 1) Baler- Casiguran Road

Halsema Highway

Farm to Market Roads (entire NLAQ)

North Luzon Expressway (NLEX)Phase 2, C5 to MacArthur

Manila-Cavite Toll Expressway, R-1Extension Project

South Luzon ExpresswayExtension Project

Daang-Hari SLEX Link Road

Marikina-Infanta Road, Quezon

Circumferential Road 6

Southern Tagalog Arterial Road(STAR) Project, Stage 2

Metro Manila Skyway, Stage 2Panay Island Package

Roxas City Circumferential RoadPandan-Libertad-Antique/

Aklan Boundary Road

Roxas-Taytay Road, Palawan

Palawan South Road

Bohol Circumferential RoadPhase III

Iloilo-Sta. Barbara Road

Metro Iloilo Radial Road

Cebu NorthCoastalRoad

Dakak-Dapitan Road

Gutalac-Siocon-Siraway-Sibuco-

Baliguian Road

Panguil Bay Bridge

Dinagat Island Road Network

Surigao-Davao CoastalRoad (Bislig-ManaySection)

Central Mindanao Inter-RegionalCircumferential Road, Cotabato (Jct.

Awang)- Upi- Lebak- Kalamansig Road

Tarlac-Nueva Ecija-Aurora-Dingalan Port RoadNLAQ

LUB

CP

AM


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Rail TransportRail Transport

North Rail Project Phase 1, Section1 (Caloocan-Malolos) & Section 2

(Malolos-Clark)

LRT Line 1 Modernization

Project, Phase II

Northrail-Southrail Linkage Project,Phase1(Caloocan to Alabang) and Phase 2 (Alabang Calamba)

LRT Line 1 South Extension-Baclaran to Bacoor, Cavite)

LRTA Line 1, North Extension(Closing the loop)

MRT 7

MRT 3 CAPEX

Mainline South RailwayProject (Southrail) Phase IA(Calamba- Lucena)

LRT Line 1 NAIA Connector

LRT Line 2 East Extension toMasinag

Mainline South Railway Project(Southrail), Phase 1B (Lucena-

Legaspi) & Phase II (Extension toSorsogon)

NLAQ

LUB

CP

AM


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Real SectorReal Sector

Secretary Ralph G. RectoNational Economic and Development Authority

The Philippines:The Philippines:Addressing Challenges, Staying the CourseAddressing Challenges, Staying the Course

Philippine Economic BriefingPhilippine Economic BriefingSeptember 2008September 2008

mid year econ briefing sept 17 sec ralph recto

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