Student Flow Models for NEBHE States

Patrick Kelly

National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

July 14th and 19th, 2010

• Gauge levels of performance it will take for states to close the educational attainment gaps with best-performing states, countries, or the U.S. Average

• Identify improvements along the education pipeline yield the greatest results (e.g. college-going rates, first-year retentions rates, six-year graduation rates, etc.)

• Estimate the costs to the state and students to achieve certain results – operating “business as usual”

Overview – Purpose of the Models

How many additional credentials and degrees are needed by 2020 or 2025?

• Obama Goal• Lumina Goal• Gates Goal• State Goals

Demonstration of Degree Gap Models

Inputs (Population Projections)

Input Rates Throughput Rate

Assessed Outcomes

NCHEMS Student Flow Model for Public Higher Education

(Measures Used to Project the Impact of Improved Performance by 2025)

1. High School Graduates

2. 20 to 39 Year Olds

1. High School Graduation Rates

2. College-Going Rates Recently Out of High School

3. Participation Rate of 20 to 39 Year Olds

1. Undergraduate Credentials/Degrees Awarded per 100 FTE UndergraduatesBy Sector

1. Additional Associate and Bachelors Degrees Produced

2. Additional Enrollment Needed by Sector

3. Additional Costs to the State and Students Operating at Current $ per FTE Student

Enrollment Distribution

Data Sources

1. Projections of High School Graduates – WICHE Knocking at the College Door

2. Projections by Age-Group – U.S. Census Bureau or State Demographer

3. High School Graduation Rates – NCES, Common Core Data

4. College-Going Rates Recently Out of High School – NCES, Common Core Data and IPEDS Fall Residency and Migration Survey

5. Participation Rate – NCES, Fall Residency and Migration Survey and U.S. Census Bureau

6. Throughput Rates – NCES, IPEDS Completions and Enrollment Surveys

7. Data for Cost Assessing Outcomes – NCES, IPEDS Finance Survey or SHEEO Agency

Demonstration of Student Flow Model

• Baseline scenario is based on no improvement in performance, along with the projections of high school graduates and 20 to 39 year olds.

• The model assumes linear progress toward each goal – a curve could be applied but we would need the formula and rationale from each state.

• Increases on one measure don’t lead to decreases (or increases) on another – e.g. an increase in high school graduation does not lead to a decrease in college-going (we don’t a have defensible strategy for this).

• The mix of certificates and degrees stays the same. Though, there is a mechanism in the model to change this.

Some General Assumptions in the Model

The Impact of Race/Ethnicity

Model for Closing Racial/Ethnic Gaps

Application of the Models in a Policy Environment

• Long-Term Strategic Planning

• Goal Setting and Accountability

• A tool that provides opportunity to engage key stakeholders in the process

• Examples from States that have Used Similar Models – Kentucky, Arizona, Tennessee

Applying the Models in Policymaking

• Raise the annual number of GED graduates from 9,800 to 15,000. • Increase the college-going rate of GED graduates from 19 percent to 36 percent.

• Increase the number of high school graduates from 40,000 to 48,000. • Raise the percent of high school freshmen who graduate four years later from 72 percent to 81

percent.

• Increase KCTCS enrollment from 86,500 to 115,800. • Increase KCTCS transfers to four-year universities from 4,500 to 11,300.

• Increase the percent of HS graduates going directly to college from 62 percent to 74 percent. • Increase the percent of adults in college from 3.6 percent to 4.5 percent. • Raise the six-year college graduation rate from 45 percent to 56 percent. • Raise annual bachelor’s degrees awarded from 18,200 to 33,700.

• Attract 80,000 college-educated adults from outside the state to Kentucky through increased job creation and economic development opportunities.

Five Strategic Goals

Raise High School Graduation Rates

Increase GED Graduates and Transition to College

Enroll More Students in KCTCS and Increase Transfer

Increase Participation and Graduation Rates

Attract More Educated Workers and Increase Job Opportunities

Profile of Arizona Now and Arizona in 2020Arizona in 2006 Arizona in 2020

Bronze Target

Silver Target

Gold Target

25% of adults have Bachelor’s Degree 1 Million Adults 26% 28.5% 30%

18,000 Bachelor’s Degrees Produced AnnuallyIn Arizona University System 21,600 28,000 36,000

78% Freshman Retention 79% 84% 86%

56% 6-Yr Graduation Rate 57% 59% 61%

45% College Going Rate (from K-12) 50% 52% 53%

8,100 Community College Transfers 8,900 19,500 32,500

4,200 Community College Transfers Who Go On To Earn A Bachelor’s Degree 5,800 12,000 19,700

93,500 Undergraduate Enrollment 123,000 150,000 182,000

$76 Million Total Research Expenditures $1.4 Billion $1.7 Billion $1.8 Billion

Inputs (Population Projections)

Input Rates Throughput Rates

Assessed Outcomes

NCHEMS Detailed Student Flow Model for Public Higher Education

(Measures Used to Project the Impact of Improved Performance by 2025)

1. High School Graduates

2. 20 to 24 Year Olds

3. 25 to 49 Year Olds

1. High School Graduation Rates

2. College-Going Rates Recently Out of High School

3. Participation Rate of 20 to 24 Year Olds

4. Participation Rate of 25 to 49 Year Olds

1. First-Year Retention Rates

2. Six-Year Graduation Rates

3. Transfer Rates from Two- to Four-Year Colleges

4. Four-Year Graduation Rates of Transfer Students

By Sector

1. Additional Certificates, Associate, and Bachelors Degrees Produced

2. Additional Enrollment Needed by Sector

3. Additional Costs to the State and Students Operating at Current $ per FTE Student

4. Decreased Spending on “Dropouts” (State and Institutions)

Enrollment Distribution

Data Sources

1. Projections of High School Graduates – WICHE Knocking at the College Door

2. Projections by Age-Group – U.S. Census Bureau or State Demographer

3. High School Graduation Rates – NCES, Common Core Data

4. College-Going Rates Recently Out of High School – NCES, Common Core Data and IPEDS Fall Residency and Migration Survey

5. Participation Rate by Age-Group – Detailed Cohort Data Provided by SHEEO Agency and U.S. Census Bureau

6. Throughput Rates (Retention, Transfer, and Graduation Rates) – Detailed Cohort Data Provided by SHEEO Agency

7. Data for Cost Assessing Outcomes – NCES, IPEDS Finance Survey or SHEEO Agency

Example of Cohort Persistence and Completion Data Required for Detailed Model

E ntering S tatus

E nrollment/Deg ree S tatus

F irs t-T ime E ntering /F all/S pring /S ummer

(Unduplic ated), Y ear 1Y ear 2 Y ear 3 Y ear 4 Y ear 5 Y ear 6 Y ear 7 Y ear 8

E nrolled 10,000 6,196 4,539 3,359 2,537 1,973 776 300C ertificate/Diploma 115 127 160 159 135 119 46 30Associates Degree 18 257 361 268 221 170 50 20E nrolled 5,000 1,904 1,210 878 671 583 298 150C ertificate/Diploma 141 126 83 61 42 36 17 5Associates Degree 56 63 67 64 47 38 15 5E nrolled 8,000 3,655 2,569 1,937 1,537 1,249 633 320C ertificate/Diploma 129 147 135 123 106 87 41 16Associates Degree 55 107 133 117 108 93 49 16E nrolled 23,000 11,754 8,318 6,174 4,745 3,804 1,707 770C ertificate/Diploma 385 400 379 343 283 242 105 51Associates Degree 130 427 562 449 376 300 115 41

Fro

m In

-Sta

te

Total

P ublic 2-Y ear C ohort P rogression

Directly F rom High S chool

25 and O lder

O ther

Note: Best to use the average of two or three entering cohorts rather than building the model on one cohort.

Example of Cohort Persistence and Completion Data Required for Detailed Model

E ntering S tatus

E nrollm ent/Deg ree S tatus

F irs t-T im e E ntering /F all/S pring /S um m er

(Unduplic ated), Y ear 1Y ear 2 Y ear 3 Y ear 4 Y ear 5 Y ear 6 Y ear 7 Y ear 8

E nrolled 20,000 14,991 13,214 12,488 7,624 3,011 1,555 445C ertificate/Diploma 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Associates Degree 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0B achelors Degree 0 14 277 4,462 4,491 1,461 682 148E nrolled 2,000 1,028 759 514 310 205 99 43C ertificate/Diploma 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Associates Degree 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0B achelors Degree 0 105 139 148 102 63 40 0E nrolled 4,000 2,393 1,869 1,518 933 430 243 98C ertificate/Diploma 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Associates Degree 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0B achelors Degree 0 89 171 503 473 189 82 28E nrolled 3,000 2,336 1,701 830 374 185 102 38C ertificate/Diploma 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Associates Degree 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0B achelors Degree 11 377 766 438 182 81 41 13E nrolled 7,000 5,450 3,970 1,937 872 432 239 89C ertificate/Diploma 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Associates Degree 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0B achelors Degree 25 879 1,788 1,022 425 189 97 31E nrolled 29,000 20,748 17,543 15,351 9,241 3,831 2,000 624C ertificate/Diploma 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Associates Degree 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0B achelors Degree 11 585 1,354 5,551 5,248 1,794 845 190

Total WO Transfer

O ut-of-S tate

Fro

m In

-Sta

te

P ublic 4-Y ear C ohort P rogression

Transfers from C C s

Directly F rom High S chool

25 and O lder

O ther

Note: Best to use the average of two or three entering cohorts rather than building the model on one cohort.

Example DashboardAssessing the Impact of Improved Performance: Goals in 2025

Type Only in the Active Cells

Current Goal Current Goal

72.7% 80.0% 57.8% 80.0%

Current Goal Current Goal

1.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% Current Projected Current Projected Current Projected Current Projected

7% 7% 25% 25% 24% 24%25% 25% 33% 33% 50% 50% 45% 45%

67% 67% 42% 42% 26% 26% 55% 55%Current Goal Current Goal 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

227 227 1,456 1,456

Current Goal Current Goal* Current Goal

58.2% 58.2% 13.8% 13.8% 29.8% 29.8%

Current Goal Current Goal Current Goal

63.5% 63.5% 26.7% 26.7% 32.6% 32.6%

Current Goal Current Goal Current Goal

75.9% 75.9% 42.9% 42.9% 38.8% 38.8%

Transfers from CCs

Distribution of First-Time Entering Students

Public Research Institutions

Public Bach and Mast Public Research

First-Time Students from Out-of-State

Public Two-Year

Public Bach and Mast

Public Research

Total

First-Year Retention RatesSix-Year Graduation Rates

of First-Time FreshmenFour-Year Graduation

Rates of Transfer Students

First-Year Retention RatesSix-Year Graduation Rates

of First-Time FreshmenFour-Year Graduation

Rates of Transfer Students

Public Bachelors and Masters Institutions

First-Time Participation Rate of 20 to 24 Year Olds

First-Time Participation Rate of 25 to 49 Year Olds

Throughputs

Public Two-Year Institutions

First-Year Retention RatesTransfer Rates to Four-Year

Institutions*Six-Year Graduation Rates

of First-Time Freshmen

Sector

Inputs

High School Graduation Rate College-Going Rate

25 to 49 Year Olds20 to 24 Year OldsDirectly from High School

Changing Future Enrollment Patterns

Patrick Kelly

National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

patrick@nchems.org

(303) 497-0307