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Newsletter Published on 6th March 2020

Your companion to Nepal Stock Market

AAKASH CAPITAL LIMITED Weekly Newsletter from Aakash Capital Limited for the week ending on 6th March, 2020

NEPSE UPDATE

Indicators 1st March, 2020

5th March, 2020

(+)/(-)

Change %

NEPSE 1632.17 1435.7 -12.04%

SENSITIVE 347.68 307.72 -11.49%

FLOAT 115.7 101.95 -11.88%

SEN. FLOAT 115.79 102.27 -11.68%

BANKING 1440.15 1266.93 -12.03%

TRADING 943.79 855.97 -9.31%

HOTELS 2007.78 1762.58 -12.21%

DEVELOPMENT BANKS 2063.7 1903.14 -7.78%

HYDROPOWER 1102.3 1003.49 -8.96%

FINANCE 712.66 702.09 -1.48%

NON LIFE INSURANCE 7355.16 6240.68 -15.15%

MANU. & PRO. 3243.16 2856.73 -11.92%

OTHERS 799.42 725.76 -9.21%

MICROFINANCE 2747.3 2305.05 -16.10%

LIFE INSURANCE 9741.31 8386.57 -13.91%

MUTUAL FUND 10.76 10.39 -3.44%

Market Summary Statistics (1st to 5th March, 2020)

Total Turnover (Rs) 16,219,054,782

Total Traded Shares 38,426,724 Total Number of Transactions 143,956 Scrips Traded 183

Market Cap at Week start 2,083,684.61 Millions

Market cap at Week end 1,832,855.60 Millions

Floated Market Cap at Week start 759,713.02 Millions

Floated Market Cap at Week end 669,414.84 Millions

Bullion Update

As on 6th March 2020 Hallmark Gold Rs.82,500/tola

Worked Gold Rs.82,200/tola

Silver Rs.890/tola

Quote for the week

“No price is too low for a bear or too high for a bull.”

The market decreased by 12.04% (196.47 points) in the

trading week between 1st and 5th March 2020. The

sensitive index, which measures the performance of

the companies classified under group “A”, also

registered the fall of 11.49% (39.96 points). Similarly,

float index which measures the performance of

securities which are floated to public also went down

by 11.88% and sensitive float followed the trend by

decreasing 11.68%.

This week market opened at 1632.17 on Sunday and

went down 40.81 points to sit at 1591.36 level. Market

again declined 96.06 points on Monday with negative

circuit. Correction was seen due to selling pressure

created by short term traders. Market tried to retrace

on Tuesday with 14.37 points gain. However, negative

sentiment continued on remaining days. Market fell

68.47 points on Wednesday and 5.50 points on

Thursday to end the week at 1435.70 level.

In this review period, all the sub-index close lower.

Microfinance sub-index gained the highest of 16.10%

Non-Life insurance which gained 3.46% last week also

registered the fall of 15.15% followed by Life insurance

with 13.91%. Banking sub-index which have the

highest ownership in the Index also went down by

12.03%. Similarly, Trading, Hotels, Development

Banks, Hydropower, Finance, Manu & Pro , Others and

Mutual Fund sub-index also registered the fall of

9.31%, 12.21%, 7.78%, 8.96%, 1.48% 11.92%, 9.21%

and 3.44% respectively in the review period.

The market witnessed supportive volume of

transaction turnover this week. The total turnover

stood at Rs.16.21 billion with average of Rs.3.24 billion

a day. However, the total market value decreased by

Rs.198,721.60 million as the market capitalization

went down by 9.78%. Similarly, floated market cap also

registered the fall of 9.82% this trading week.

.

Market Announcements

Nepal Re-Insurance Company Limited has published an offer letter to issue 1,60,00,000 units IPO shares the general

public from (4th Chaitra to 7th Chaitra, 2076).

NLG Insurance Company Limited is issuing it's 10:6 ratio 38,42,437.5 units right share to its shareholders from today

(22nd Falgun, 2076).

Prudential Insurance Company Limited is issuing it's 10:6 ratio 38,49,120 units right share to its shareholders from

today (18th Falgun, 2076).

Shikhar Insurance Company Limited is issuing it's 10:3 ratio 31,71,932 units right share to its shareholders from (13th

Chaitra, 2076 to 3rd Baishakh, 2077).

Nabil Bank Limited has published an offer letter to issue (20,00,000 units @ Rs.1000 per unit) 10% Nabil Debenture

2082 to the general public from (2nd to 5th Chaitra , 2076).

Goodwill Finance Company Limited has published an offer letter to issue (2,50,000 units @ Rs.1000 per unit)

12%Goodwill Finance Limited Debenture 2083 to the general public from (28th Falgun to 2nd Chaitra, 2076).

Citizens Bank International Limited is issuing its (25,00,000 units @ Rs.1000 per unit) 10.25% Citizens Bank Debenture

2086 to the general public from 20th Falgun, 2076.

NIC Asia Bank Limited is selling 1,66,032 units promoter shares of (Citizens Investment Trust) in auction to the general

public from (19th to 29th Falgun, 2076).

NIC Asia Bank Limited is selling 41,400 units promoter shares of (Surya Life Insurance Company Limited) in auction to

the general public from (19th to 29th Falgun, 2076).

Api Power Company Limited has announced a book closure date for its upcoming 1:47 ratio right share on 1st Chaitra,

2076.

Central Finance Limited is distributing 7% cash dividend directly to bank accounts to its shareholders and urged its

shareholders to dematerialize their shares.

Sagarmatha Insurance Company Limited has published a notice regarding its uncollected dividends.

Kanchan Development Bank Limited urges its shareholders to collect uncollected due dividends.

First Microfinance Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited urges its shareholders to collect uncollected due dividends.

Kailash Bikas Bank Limited urges its shareholders to collect uncollected due dividends.

Mero Microfinance Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited urges its shareholders to collect uncollected due dividends.

ICFC Finance Limited urges its shareholders to collect uncollected due dividends.

Chilime Hydropower Company Limited is distributing 20% Bonus share directly to DMAT accounts to its shareholders

and urged its shareholders to dematerialize their shares.

National Microfinance Bittiya Sanstha Limited has changed its name to National Microfinance Laghubitta Bittiya

Sanstha Limited.

Laxmi Capital Market Limited has published a notice regarding the maturity of its mutual fund “Laxmi Value Fund-1”.

Mahila Sahayatra Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited has announced its 7th AGM going to be held on 22nd Chaitra,

2076.

General Insurance Company Nepal Limited has announced its 2nd AGM going to be held on 14th Chaitra, 2076.

Century Commercial Bank Limited has announced its 9th AGM going to be held on 14th Chaitra, 2076.

Sahayogi Vikas Bank Limited has announced its 16th AGM going to be held on 10th Chaitra, 2076.

Api Power Company Limited has announced its 16th AGM going to be held on 7th Chaitra, 2076.

Miteri Development Bank Limited has announced its 14th AGM going to be held on 8th Chaitra, 2076.

Womi Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited has announced its 8th AGM going to be held on 16th Chaitra, 2076.

Citizens Bank International Limited has published a book closure date for its 5th SGM on (3rd Chaitra, 2076).

Kisan Microfinance Bittiya Sanstha Limited has announced its Special General Meeting going to be held on 6th Chaitra,

2076.

Nepal Infrastructure Bank Limited has published its financial highlights of the fiscal year 2075/76.

NEPSE - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The Nepalese stock market (NEPSE) has ended its three and half years of bearish trend in mid-Jan 2020. The bearish trend was

started in July 2016 when index was at 1881 level. Currently, Market is at support level of 1435 after falling from 1632 level this

week. In the review week, NEPSE opened at 1632.17 and formed a red candle by closing at 1591.36, losing 40.81 points during

the day. The overall market lost 196.47 as it closed at 1435.70 on Thursday losing 5.50 points. The market is in correction after

gaining 197.60 points last week. Record breading turnover was seen on Sunday with Rs.4.84 billion. However, this week the

average turnover has decreased to Rs.3.24 billion from Rs.3.72 billion of previous week. As of weekly line chart 1390 level might

be considered as the next support level.

TECHNICAL INDICATORS

Indicators Value Signal

Support (S1) 1390 -

Resistance (R1) 1500 -

Relative Strength Index (RSI) 50.80 Moderate Zone

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) 49.74 Bearish

5-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1480.34 Bearish

20-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1454.93 Bearish

180-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 1268.54 Bullish

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Analysis

RSI is a moment indicator that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions

in the price of a stock. RSI is typically used on a 14-day time frame, measured on a scale from 0 to 100, where a value above 70

represents overbought and below 30 represents oversold condition.

Current RSI value of NEPSE is 50.80 which indicates that the market is at moderate zone. As of daily line chart, there is a chance

of formation of regular bullish divergence if the index returns from current support level.

Bollinger Band

Bollinger band is a technical indicator that consists of a set of lines plotted two standard deviations up and below a 21-day simple

moving average. The bands are an indication of volatility; a widening gap indicates higher volatility and vice-versa. Prices are

relatively high when above the upper band and low when below the lower band.

The upper, middle and the lower bands are at 1634.26, 1446.56 and 1258.86 respectively. The market is trading just below the

middle band which indicates the market is falling towards the support level.

Stock Analysis: NLG Insurance Company Limited (NLG)

NLG Insurance Company Limited is a part of National Life & General Insurance (NLGI) incorporated in 1988 to conduct Life

as well as General business, as composite insurance company. As per requirement of the Insurance Act of Nepal, General

Insurance business of NLGI was separated and a new company by the name NLG Insurance Company Ltd.

NLG was incorporated in 2005. NLG has over 25 years of experience in providing insurance services to its individual and corporate clients. Through customer driven service packages, personalized service delivery and technology focused operation, its clients enjoy value that are unparalleled in the industry. NLG is widely acknowledged for its promptness in claims services, it serves its large client base by providing diverse product range throughout the country by its largest number of network. NLG has reliable reinsurance support of world's renowned reinsurer Hannover Re.

Board of Directors

Name Designation

Mr. Bimal Prasad Wagle Chairman

Mr. Bharat Bahadur Basnet Director

Mr. Suresh Prasad Khatri Director

Mr. Mana Bahadur Rai Director

Mr. Min Bahadur Samari Director

Dr. Bharat Kumar Thapa Independent Director

(Source: http://www.nlg.com.np)

Chief Executive Officer: Mr. Sunil Ballav Pant

Capital Structure (As on 31st Asad 2075)

Authorized Capital NRs. 1,500,000,000

Issued Capital NRs. 640,406,250

Paid-up Capital NRs. 640,406,250

Shareholding Pattern (As of 31st Asad 2075)

Shareholders 2074/75

Holding units Percentage

Promoter Group A Domestic Institutions 3,202,031 50%

Nepalese Citizen -

Foreigner -

General Public Group B 1,280,813 20%

General Public Group C 1,921,219 30%

Total 6,404,063 100%

Promoter Group A50%

General Public Group B20%

General Public Group C30%

Financial Analysis

Particulars 2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76* CAGR

Share Capital (Rs.000) 341,550 409,860 512,325 640,406 640,406 17.02%

Reserves & Surplus (Rs.000) 115,898 143,294 138,321 119,913 198,348 14.38%

Insurance Fund (Rs.000) 351,696 466,275 581,337 705,119 792,269 22.51%

Long term Investment (Rs.000) 323,650 288,817 348,565 343,628 525,500 12.88%

Total Revenue (Rs.000) 217,520 379,146 420,555 457,981 326,317 10.67%

Total Expenses (Rs.000) 64,706 149,632 189,558 210,158 152,018 23.80%

Gross Premium (Rs.000) 975,319 1,207,974 1,347,156 1,475,663 1,665,571 14.32%

Net Profit (Rs.000) 152,814 229,514 230,998 247,821 174,299 3.34%

Change Period on Period (%) 50.19% 0.65% 7.28% -29.67%

Net Profit to Gross Premium (%) 15.67% 19.00% 17.15% 16.79% 10.46%

ROE (%) 19.33% 19.53% 18.89% 16.97% 13.72%

ROA (%) 8.60% 9.66% 10.24% 8.96% 7.43%

EPS (Rs.) 47.86 61.09 36.07 38.70 27.22

DPS (%) 20.00% 26.31% 26.31% -

MPPS (Rs.) 559 1,970 1485 930 762

Price Earnings ratio 11.68 32.25 41.17 24.03 27.99

Book Value per Share (Rs.) 239 256 249 237 264.54

Solvency Margin (%) 2.67 3.66 4.37 1.47

Total no. of Policies 145,054 191,756 197,101 167,461 171,164

No. of Claims Paid 2,776 4,946 5,142 5,300 6,498

No. of Unpaid Claims 2,043 1,566 1,425 1,644 2,540

No. of Claims/Total No. of Policies (%) 3.00% 0.82% 3.33% 4.15% 5.28%

Insurance Agents 244 209 268 350

Total Employees 182 206 236 273

Total No. of office 28 30 34 49

Based on the data presented above from 2071 to 2076 BS, the company has shown volatility in most of its fundamentals. As of 2075/76 its paid up capital is Rs.640 million which shows that the company has failed to maintain the paid up capital directed by Insurance Board. Most of the non-life companies are still unable to meet their minimum paid-up capital directed by the regulatory body. The company has reported 65% growth in Reserves & surplus which was negative 13% in 2074/75. Similarly, it has reported 12% growth in Insurance Fund, 52.93% in Long Term Investment, 12% in Premium collection but failed to maintain positive growth in Revenue which have resulted 29% decline in Net Profit. Negative growth on profit was due to increase in expenses related to Management, Claims and other expenses. Most of the fundamentals seems to be in a falling trend in recent years, which have resulted the loss competitive advantage in it sector.

The company has reported solvency margin of 1.47 in 2074/75 which is below the minimum solvency margin directed by Insurance Board. The company wasn’t affected by devastating earthquake of 2072 B.S. as most of the fundamentals had positive growth. It seems the company made a good decision in 2072/73 by reducing their investments mostly in the capital market as the overall market (NEPSE) started to fall after making its top of 1881 level. The company has given regular dividend to its shareholders except in 2074/75. Looking at the history of dividend distribution, it seems to be highly focused on distributing bonus share. However, company didn’t pay any dividend in 2074/75.

Right Share Notice

NLG Insurance Company Limited is issuing it's 10:6 ratio 38,42,437.5 units right share to its shareholders from 22nd Falgun, 2076.

Financial Highlights

34.1640.99

51.2364.04 64.04

11.59 14.33 13.83 11.9919.83

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76*

Share Capital and Reserves & Surplus

Share Capital (Rs.crores) Reserves & Surplus (Rs.crores)

35.1746.63

58.1370.51

79.23

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76*

Insurance Fund (Rs.crores)

6.47

14.96

18.9621.02

15.20

15.28

22.95 23.1024.78

17.43

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76*

Expenses vs Net Profit

Total Expenses (Rs.crores) Net Profit (Rs.crores)

21.75

37.9142.06

45.80

32.63

6.4714.96 18.96

21.0215.20

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76*

Revenue vs Expenses

Total Revenue (Rs.crores) Total Expenses (Rs.crores)

15.2822.95 23.10 24.78

17.43

47.86

61.09

36.07 38.7027.22

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76*

Net Profit vs EPS

Net Profit (Rs.crores) EPS (Rs.)

47.86 61.09 36.07 38.70 27.22

559

1,970

1485

930762

0.00

500.00

1000.00

1500.00

2000.00

2500.00

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76*

EPS vs MPPS

EPS (Rs.) MPPS (Rs.)

145,054 191,756 197,101 167,461 171,164

975,3191,207,974

1,347,156 1,475,6631,665,571

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74 2074/75 2075/76*

No. of Policies vs Gross Premium

Total no. of Policies Gross Premium (Rs.crores)

20.00%

26.31% 26.31%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

2071/72 2072/73 2073/74

Dividend %

Technical Analysis of NLG as on March 5, 2020

Day Candle

Open 650

High 655

Low 632

Close 647

Pattern Analysis

Resistance R1: 758 R2: 776

Support S1: 611 S2: 520

Particulars Points Remarks

Volume 7,353.00 The daily volume of stock is higher than 1 week’s

average volume but lower than 1 month’s

average volume.

Avg. Volume (1 week) 6,777.80

Avg. Volume (1 month) 11,537.19

No. of Transaction 69 The daily number of transaction is higher than both 1 week’s but lower than 1 month’s average no of transaction.

Avg. no. of Transaction (1 week) 60.40

Avg. no. of Transaction (1 month) 103.38

180 days Average (Rs.) 653.08 The price of the stock is trading around 180 day’s 360 day’s average. 360 days Average (Rs.) 744.73

52 Weeks High Price (Rs.) 918 The stock is currently trading in between 52 week’s high and low price. 52 Weeks Low Price (Rs.) 482

Nepse Index 1 year Change 30.21% The overall market and industry has gained in last 1 year. However, the stock has declined in last 1 and 12 months.

Industry Index 1year Change 17.92%

Stock 1-Month Change -26.31%

Stock 1-Year Change -18.10%

Total Holdings of Mutual Funds (Magh, 2076) 96,802 The Mutual Funds are holding less no of shares of the company.

Quarterly Analysis

Particulars Q2 2075/76 Q2 2076/77 Growth (%) Industry Average

Share Capital (Rs.000) 640,406 640,406 0.00% 943,434

Reserves & Surplus (Rs.000) 164,280 242,142 47.40% 420,941

Insurance Fund (Rs.000) 749,721 836,063 11.52% 662,164

Catastrophic Reserve (Rs.000) 54,601 63,082 15.53% 45,156

Source of Funds (Rs.000) 1,609,008 1,781,693 10.73% 2,071,695

Gross Premium (Rs.000) 837,353 925,090 10.48% 765,836

Total Revenue (Rs.000) 169,679 168,613 -0.63% 178,184

Total Expenses (Rs.000) 85,171 81,025 -4.87% 71,696

Net Profit (Rs.000) 84,508 87,588 3.64% 106,488

ROE (%) 21.75% 9.83% -54.80% 9.54%

EPS (Rs.) 26.39 27.35 3.64% 33.09

MPPS (Rs.) 696 700 0.51% 1095

Price Earnings ratio 26.39 25.59 -3.02% 33.09

Book Value per Share (Rs.) 242.72 278.21 14.62% 300.89

Total no. of Policies 95,825 92,453 -3.52% 71,592.20

No. of Claims Paid 2,481 3,670 47.92% 2912.2

No. of Unpaid Claims 2,380 3,330 39.92% 2,634.33

No. of Claims/Total No. of Policies (%) 5.07% 7.57% 49.31% 7.75%

As on second quarter of fiscal year 2076/77, the company has reported 10.73% growth in Sources of Funds to Rs.1.78 billion.

Fundamentals like Reserve & Surplus, Insurance Fund and Catastrophic Reserve has grown by 47.40%, 11.52% and 15.53%

respectively. Similarly, total number of policies has declined by 3.52% to 92,453 which have let Total Revenue to fall by 0.63%

to Rs.168.61 million. However, fall in Total Expenses by 4.87% has resulted Net Profit to grow by 3.64% to Rs.87.58 million.

Concluding Remarks

NLG Insurance Company Limited is still unable to meet the paid up capital of Rs.1 billion directed by Insurance Board. Company is issuing 1:0.6 right share to its existing shareholders to meet the paid up capital directed by Insurance Board. As of unaudited report of Q2 2076/77, the company has made positive growth in most of the fundamentals but they are operating below industry average which indicates the lack of competitive advantage in its sector. However, growth in Premium collection and long term investment can uplift the performance of the company and it has potential to become one of the leader in its sector.

Indicators Points Remarks

RSI (14) 48.48 NLG is at moderate zone.

MACD (12,26,9) 27.13 The MACD line is below the signal line and both are above the baseline.

Signal Line (12,26,9) 49.21

Histogram (12,26,9) -22.08

EMA (5,0) 669.61 The price is trading below both EMA 5 and 20 days moving average.

EMA (20,0) 673.28

+DMI(13,8) 26.04 The -DMI is dominant over +DMI and ADX is at 43.06

-DMI(13,8) 27.81

ADX (13,8) 43.06

The following table shows the total dividend declared by District Level Microfinance Companies from the profit of 2075/76

Symbol Company Name Dividend

Total Dividend (%) Bonus(%) Cash (%)

AMFI Aarambha Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 7.38 0.00 7.38

CHLBS Chautari Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 7.00 10.89 17.89

GLBSL Gurans Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 7.61 0.40 8.01

JSLBB Janautthan Samudayic Laghubitta Bikas Bank Limited 25.00 1.32 26.32

KMFL Kisan Microfinance Bittiya Sanstha Limited 23.95 1.14 25.09

MLBBL Mithila Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 15.00 0.78 15.78

MMFDB Mirmire Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 45.00 2.36 47.36

NAGRO Nepal Agro Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 15.00 0.00 15.00

NBBL Nagbeli Laghubitta Bikash Bank Limited 26.00 1.37 27.37

NNLB Naya Nepal Laghubitta Bikas Bank Limited 20.00 1.05 21.05

NSEWA Nepal Seva Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 2.50 0.13 2.63

SLBS Suryodaya Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 44.47 2.34 46.81

SLBSL Samudayik Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 32.00 1.68 33.68

SMATA Samata Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 5.00 5.53 10.53

SMB Support Microfinance Bittiya Sanstha Limited 10.00 0.53 10.53

SMFDB Summit Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 21.09 1.11 22.20

SPARS Sparsha Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 13.00 0.68 13.68

UMB Unnati Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Limited 38.60 2.03 40.63

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