pacon, kaoshiung, 2 december 2003 (ost-1: climate change)
DESCRIPTION
IMPACT OF POSSIBLE FUTURE CLIMATE ON COASTAL WINDS, STORM SURGES AND WAVE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH SEA. Hans VON STORCH, Arnt PFIZENMAYER, Ralf WEISSE, Katja WOTH, Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
IMPACT OF POSSIBLE FUTURE CLIMATE ON COASTAL WINDS,
STORM SURGES AND WAVE CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH SEA
Hans VON STORCH, Arnt PFIZENMAYER, Ralf WEISSE, Katja WOTH, Institute for Coastal Research,
GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht, Germany
PACON, Kaoshiung, 2 December 2003 (OST-1: Climate Change)
Series of EU projects
• WASA (1995-97)
• STOWASUS (1998-2001)
• PRUDENCE (2001-2003)
Changing Scenarios
• Different emission scenarios, IS92a, SRES
• Different models, ECHAM, HADCM etc.
• Different regionalization: global T106 time slices, empirical downscaling, regional climate models; impact models (waves, storm surges)
• SIMILAR RESULTS
WASA: Mögliche Änderung der Windgeschwindigkeit der größten Stürme bei CO2 Verdopplung
STOWASUS: Ein ähnliches Szenario
WA
SA
, 1
99
8.
Inst
itu
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üst
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un
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WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
North Sea wind: increase of up to 0.5 m/s (10%ile)
Kauker
and L
angenberg
, 2
00
1
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
Mean water level: +10 cm
Storm related sea level: + 5 cm
Langenberg
et
al.,
19
99
WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
Zukünftige Szenarien
WASA: Mögliche Änderung der Höhen der größten Wellen bei CO2 Verdopplung
CDV-2075: Mögliche Änderung des Überspülens von Deichen bei CO2 Zunahme
Günth
er
et
a.,
19
98
Inst
itu
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üst
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un
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WASA results: 5 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (10%ile)
Anders
en
et
al.,
200
1
STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
North Sea wind: increase of up to 2 m/s (0.1%ile)
STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
Flath
er
and W
iliam
s, 2
00
0
North Sea elevation: increase of up to 40 cm (estimated 50 yr return values)
Kaas
et
al., 20
01North Sea
elevation: increase of up to 20 cm (estimated 50 yr return values)
RIKZ
STOWASUS results: 30 years of T106 „2 x CO2“ time slice experiment
Kaas
et
al., 20
01
North Sea waveheight: increase of up to 0.5 m (0.1%ile)
Mean and 99 percentile of wind speed obtained from CTL run and A2Contour lines - mean percentiles of CTL
Colour: Changes in wind speed in the scenario relative to the control run.
Projections for the future / 10 m wind speed Projections for the future / 10 m wind speed difference in percentiles (A2 - CTL)difference in percentiles (A2 - CTL)
PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100
HIRHAMRCA
Projections for the future / surge Projections for the future / surge meteorological forcing: HIRHAM / RCAmeteorological forcing: HIRHAM / RCA
Differences in inter-annual percentiles of surge / A2 - CTL: HIRHAM
Differences in inter-annual percentiles of surge / A2 - CTL: RCA
Katj
a W
oth
, 200
3
PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100
Projections for the future :Projections for the future :return valuesreturn values
50 year return value / CTL and A2 and 90 % confidence limits based on 1000 Monte Carlo simulations:
HIR
HA
MR
CA
Cont. North Sea coastEast coast of UK
Katj
a W
oth
, 200
3
PRUDENCE results: RCM downscaling of HADCM3 A2 scenario, 2070-2100
The scenarios indicate uniformly for the North Sea:
• A slight increase of higher wind percentiles of up to 0.5-2 m/s.
• A slight increase of storm surge levels, of up to 20-40 cm.
• A slight increase in significant wave height of up to 0.5 m.
Conclusions