supply. hrp

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Supply Analysis : Forecasting

Supply forecast determines whether the HR department will be able to procure the requirednumber personnel. It measures specifically the number of people likely to be available fromwithin and outside the organisation.

It Covers: Existing human resources Internal Sources of supply External Sources of supply

Present Employees: Analysis of present employees is greatly facilitated by HR audits, whichsummarises each employees skills and abilities. The audits of non-managers are called skillsinventories and those of management is called management inventories . Whatever name isused , an inventory catalogues each employees skills and abilities and gives the planners acomprehensive understanding of the capabilities found in the organization's workforce.Inventories are computerised and updated periodically.


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S kill Inventories: Background & biographical data Work experience Specific skills and knowledge Supervisory evaluators Responsibilities Career goals

Management Inventory: Work history Strengths and weakness Promotional potential Career goals Personal data Previous management duties


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I nternal Supply: The techniques that planners use for the purpose of internal supply analysis are:

Inflows and outflows:current personnel level - outflow + inflow = internal supply

inflows = transfers, promotions, etc.outflows = resignations, discharges, demotions, retirements

Turnover rate:

Number of separations during one year x 100Average no. of employees during one year

Conditions of work and absenteeism (unauthorized absence from work):Absenteeism = Number of persons days lost x 100

Avg. no. of persons x no. of working days

Productivity level: any change in it would effect the number of persons required per unit of output

Movement among jobs: Some jobs are sources of personnel for other jobs.


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External Supply:

They are important for the following reasons:

1.) new blood and new experience will be available2.) organisation needs to replinish lost personnels3.)organisational growth and diversification creates the need to use external

sources to obtain additional number and type of employees.


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Wastage decreases with: increase of length of service, increased skillexercises and age of employees.

Wastage is seen more amongst female employees Level of employment, working conditions, size of firms are all importantvariables of manpower wastage

Methods Of W astage Analysis:

1. Labour Turnover Index:Number of employees leaving

--------------------------------------------------------- x 100Average number of employees employed

Average number of employees employed in a given time period is decided by adding theemployees at the beginning and end and then dividing the same by two.

This shows the percentage of employees leaving over a period of time (say, in the course of ayear). This rate can be then compared over time and with that of other organizations


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Example

At the beginning of a year, a firm has 250 employees, while at the end it has 230 .Assume no recruitment has been made in between. Compute the labour turnover index.

Solution:No of employees leaving =250-230=20

Average no. of employees employed =250+230=202Labour turnover = No. of employees leaving x100

Average no. of employees employed=20 x100 =8.33%

240Suppose 5 people have been recruited in between during the year, then labour turnover

would be:No. leaving =(250+5-230) =25Average no. employees employed = (255+230) =243

2Labour turnover =25/243 x100= 10%


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2 . S tability Index:

Number of employees with one or more year' s service X 100

Number employed one year ago

This will show whether the workforce is generally stable or volatile. in conjunctionwith the labor turnover rate, it can help to focus problems. These may includewhether the organization is failing to bring in new blood because of low turnover.


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C ensus Analysis:O

ne major deficiency of cohort analysis is that it holds good for a small homogenous group.This analysis can eliminate this problem, taking into account a cross section of theorganisation, i.e., all the age specific wastage rates at a given time and applying a smoothingalgorithm to the resulting data to identify a general pattern.

It requires 3 sets of data as under:

The no of employees at the beginning of a census The no. of employees at the end of the census, and The no of leavers during the census period


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Manpower Planning Models


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M ARKOV M ODELA method for tracking the pattern of employee

promotions up through and organization.

Starts with a given group of employees that existsin the level of the organisation, given the flows inand out of each level, they estimate thepopulation of level in the future.

This type of model is particularly useful when theknowledge of existing employees is availabletogether with the probabilities of flows betweensucceeding years and the required futuremanpower is not known.


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M arkov Analysis for a Retail Company


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RENEWAL M ODEL

It is based on the assumption thatrequirements are met by changes inpromotion and recruitment rates.

In this way ,the employees are pulledthrough the system to meet predeterminedrequirements.

Because of this renewal model is called aspull model.


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This model is useful when the futuremanpower requirements are known withinreasonable limits and what flows arerequired to meet the must be identified.


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REPLACE M ENT CHARTS AND SUCCESSIONPLANNING

Replacements charts

Both skill and management inventories- broadly referred to as talentinventories- can be used to develop employee replacement charts,which lists current job holders and people who are potentialreplacements if an opening occur.

Succession PlanningThe process of identifying ,developing, and tracking key individualsfor executive positions.


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An Executive Replacement Chart


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Continued.

the likely stay of individuals with theorganisation through time.


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Simulation:

Here a given real system is copied and the variables and constants associated with it aremanipulated in an artificial environment to examine the behavior of the system. Broadly,there are four phases of the simulation process:

Definition of the problem and statement of objectives Construction of an appropriate model Experimentation with the model constructed, and Evaluation of the results of simulation.

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