the outlook for energy - louisiana state university...exxonmobil 2016 outlook for energy key energy...

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The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 2040 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 2015. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.

The Outlook for Energy:A View to 2040

Rob GardnerOctober, 2016

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ExxonMobil 2016 Outlook for Energy

trade

flows

Energy Outlook Development

100 countries

15 demand

sectors

20 fuel

types

technology & policy

3


Key Energy Outlook Themes

Energy is fundamental to standards of living.

Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards.

Oi l remains the world’s primary fuel through 2040.

Natural gas grows more than any other energy source.

Economics and policies impact the fuel mix.

Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty.

4


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

125%

2014 2040

Global Trends Continue to Evolve

GDP

PopulationDemand

Carbon Emissions

Percent

Growth from 2014 Level

5


Energy Fuels Human Development

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

10 100 1000 10000

U.N. Human Development Index

2013 Index

Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates

Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day)

NorwayUnited States

Brazil

Germany

Congo

India

China

Nigeria

Bangladesh

6


Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations

2014

$72 Trillion (2010$)

*Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries

Brazil

Mexico

South

Africa

Nigeria

Saudi

Arabia

Indonesia

Thailand

Egypt

China

India

Turkey

Iran

OECD*China

India

Key

Growth

Rest of

World

7


Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations

2014

2040

$72 Trillion (2010$)

~$150 Trillion (2010$)


2.0%

per year

5.0%

5.5%

3.5%

3.4%

OECD*China

India

Key

Growth

Rest of

World

8


Middle Class and Urbanization Increase

Global Middle Class

Billion People

0

25

50

75

100

1980 2000 2020 2040

Urbanization

Percent

OECD*

ChinaIndonesia

Turkey

India

0

1

2

3

4

5

'14 '30

China

India

Key Growth

Rest of World

OECD*

Source: The Brookings Institution


Source: United Nations

9


Developing Economies Dominate Growth

0

250

500

750

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

OECD*

Rest of World

India

China

Key Growth

Quadrillion BTUs

Demand by Region


10


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2020 2040

United States Energy Trends

Indexed to 2000

GDP

Population

Demand

Carbon Emissions

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2020 2040

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2020 2040

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2000 2020 2040

11


0

10

20

30

40

201020252040 201020252040 201020252040 201020252040

Primary Energy Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

‘10 ‘25 ‘40

Transportation Res/CommIndustrialElectricity

Generation

United States Energy Demand

12


0

10

20

30

40

201020252040 201020252040 201020252040 201020252040

Other Renewables

Biomass

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

Primary Energy Demand by Sector

Quadrillion BTUs

Transportation Res/CommIndustrialElectricity

Generation

United States Energy Demand

‘10 ‘25 ‘40

13

Economics and policies impact the fuel mix.

14


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2014 20400

10

20

30

40

2000 2020 2040

Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region

Billion Tonnes

CO2 Emissions PlateauEnergy Mix Shifts to Lower-Carbon Fuels

India

Key Growth

Rest of World

OECD*

China

Global Energy Mix

Percent

Oil

Coal

Gas

Biomass

Renewables

Nuclear


15


0

50

100

150

200

250

Existing Gas New Gas Onshore Wind Nuclear Utility Solar Rooftop Solar

Managing Climate Risk

U.S. Average CO2 Abatement Costs vs. Existing Coal

Dollars per tonne

Wind and solar exclude full costs for integration and intermittency

16

Oil remains the world’s primary fuel through 2040.

17


Transportation and Chemicals Drive Growth

0

25

50

75

Transportation Industrial Res/Comm ElectricityGeneration

Liquids Demand by Sector

MBDOE

Chemical

‘10

‘25

‘40

18


0

25

50

75

2000 2020 2040

0

10

20

30

OECD* China India Key Growth Rest ofWorld

Sector Demand

MBDOE

Light Duty

Marine

Rail

Heavy Duty

Aviation

Transportation Demand

Demand by Region

MBDOE

‘40

‘25‘10

U.S.


19


High Efficiency

High Cost

Range/Charging Limit

Lower Cost

Convenience

Improving Efficiency

Global Vehicle Fleet

0

500

1000

1500

2000

'10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40

Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell

Hybrid

Natural Gas & LPG

Diesel

Gasoline

By Type

Million Cars

Hybrid

Internal Combustion

EngineElectric

Public Transport

Hydrogen Fuel Cell

Natural Gas & LPG

20


0

15

30

45

60

75

2010 2020 2030 2040

0

15

30

45

60

75

2010 2020 2030 2040

Average Vehicle Efficiency

On-Road Miles per Gallon

Average

Fleet

Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency

U.S.

Europe

21


0

15

30

45

2000 2020 2040

0

15

30

45

60

75

2000 2020 2040

Transportation Fuel Demand

World

MBDOE

United States

MBDOE

Diesel

Gasoline

Ethanol

Biodiesel

Jet Fuel

Fuel Oil

Other

Natural Gas

22

Supply

23


0

40

80

120

2000 2020 2040

Liquids Production

By Region

MBDOE

Other NonOPEC

North America

Russia

0

10

20

30

40

OPEC Non-OPEC NGLs Tight Oil Deepwater Oil Sands Other

By Type

MBDOE

‘10

‘25‘40

OPEC

Conventional

Crude and Condensate

24


0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

0

15

30

45

Liquids Trade Balance by Region

North

America

Latin

America

Europe Russia/

Caspian

Africa Middle

East

Asia

Pacific

MBDOE

Net Imports

10 30 4020

Net ExportsOther Supply

25

Natural gas growsmore than any otherenergy source.

26


Gas Demand Grows in All Sectors

0

50

100

150

200

250

ElectricityGeneration

Industrial Res/Comm Transportation

Gas Demand by Sector

BCFD

‘10

‘25

‘40

27


0

2

4

6

8

10

1980 2010 2040

0

10

20

30

40

2000 2020 2040

Electricity Demand by Region

Thousand TWh

United States

India

Europe OECD

China

Key Growth

2014

Electricity Demand Continues to Surge

Transportation

Industrial

Res/Comm

By Sector

Thousand TWh

28


0

10

20

30

2010 2025 2040

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2010 2025 2040

Wind and Solar Demand

Electricity Share Delivered by Wind and Solar

Percent

Global Wind and Solar Capacity

Gigawatts

Onshore Wind

Solar

United States

China

India

EuropeanUnion

Offshore Wind

29


0

4

8

12

0

4

8

12

0

4

8

12

0

4

8

12

0

4

8

12

0

4

8

12

0

4

8

12

0

4

8

12

0

4

8

12

0

4

8

12

Global Electricity Transitions

Regional Generation

Thousand TWh

Wind & Solar

OilCoal

Nuclear

Other Renewables

Gas

‘10

‘40

‘25

OECD* China India Key Growth Rest of World

30

Supply

31


0

200

400

600

2000 2020 2040

Natural Gas Supply

0

200

400

600

2000 2020 2040

By Delivery Type

BCFD

Unconventional

Conventional

By Production Type

BCFD

Pipeline

Net Local Production

LNG

32


0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

Gas Trade Balance by Region

North

America

Latin

America

Europe Russia/

Caspian

Africa Middle

East

Asia

Pacific

BCFD

10 30 4020

Net ImportsNet ExportsOther Supply

33


0

50

100

150

200

250

Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind/ Biofuels

Hydro / Geo

Global Demand

2040 By Fuel

Quadrillion BTUs

Average Growth / Yr.

2014 - 2040

0.9%

2014

0.7%

1.6%

2.9%0.3%

4.8% 1.3%

-0.2%

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