china’s economy in the year 2007 i institute of quantitative & technical economics, cass
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China’s Economy in the
Year 2007
I
Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics, Cass
page 2
I. Current Situation of China’s Economy
Economic Growth
page 3
Annual GDP from 2000 to 2006
10.710.410.110
9.18.4 8.3
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
GDP Growth Rate
page 4
Quarterly GDP from Q1/2003 to Q3/2006
9.9
6.7
9.6
10.4
10.6
11.5
10.4
10.4
9.8
10.1
9.9
9.5
9.5
9.7
9.8
10.7
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
03Q1 03Q2 03Q3 03Q404Q1 04Q2 04Q3 04Q4 05Q1 05Q2 05Q3 05Q406Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
GDP GDP%
page 5
Annual GDP (2000-2006)( Growth Rates of the Three Industries)( 国家统计局）
5
12.5
10.3
5.2
6.3
2.52.92.82.4
11.711.1
12.7
9.89.4
8.4
10.2 10.4
9.510 10.5
9.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Pri mary I ndustry Secondary I ndustryTert i ary I ndustry
page 6
Quarterly GDP (Q12003-Q32006)
2.6
6.35.2 4.9
11.7
13
9.5
5.1
4.5
554.65.54.9
4.5
2.73.5 2.8
13.212.5
11.111.211.111.1
10.9
11.5
11.6
14.3
11.811.6
12.3
9.48.910.5
8.17.87.78.38.5
88
6.8
5.44.2
7.6
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
03Q1 03Q2 03Q3 03Q4 04Q1 04Q2 04Q3 04Q4 05Q1 05Q2 05Q3 05Q4 06Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Pri mary Secondary Terti aryGrowth rate(%) Growth rate(%) Growth rate(%)
page 7
Total Value of Fixed-Asset Investment and Its Growth Rate(2000-2006)
16. 9
2425. 726. 627. 7
13
10. 3
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
5
10
15
20
25
30
Investment(100m)Growth Rate(%)
page 8
Quarterly FAI and Its Growth Rate(2005/Q1-2006/Q4)(State-owned and Others)
25.327.1 27.7
25.7
29.831.3
28.2
24
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
05/ Q1 05/ Q2 05/ Q3 05/ Q4 06/ Q1 06/ Q2 06/ Q3 06/ Q40
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Investment(100m) Growth rate(%)
page 9
The Growth Rate of Total Volume of Retail Sales of Consumer Goods (2000-2006)
13.712.913.3
9.18.810.19.7
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Retail Sales of Comsumer Goods(100m) Growth Rate
page 10
Amounts of Imports, Exports and Their Increase Rate(2000-2006)
27.223.8
23.235.7
37.121.8
7.5
31.5 2017.63639.9
21.235.8
8.2
28.435.4
34.622.3
6.8
27.9
02000400060008000
100001200014000160001800020000
0 1 2 3 4 5 60
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Total Volume of Imports and Exports(USD100m) Size of Exports (USD 100m)
Size of Exports(USD100m) Growth Rate
Growth Rate of Import(%) Growth Rate of Exports(%)
page 11
Monthly Imports, Exports and Their Growth Rate (2005-2006)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
05_1
05_3
05_5
05_7
05_9
05_1
106
_106
_306
_506
_706
_906
_11
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Exports(USD100m) Imports (USD100m)Growth Rate of Exports(%) Growth Rate of Imports(%)
page 12
Annual Disposable Income of Urban Residents, &Its Growth Rate(2000-2006), (per capita)
8.5
13.412.1
9.6
7.7
9.3
6.4
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban and Rural Residents(RMByuan) Gowth Rate
page 13
Annual Net Income of Rural Residents (2000-2006) (per capita)
2.1
4.2 4.8
4.3
6.86.2
10.2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 1 2 3 4 5 60
2
4
6
8
10
12
net income of rural residents increase rate
page 14
Fiscal Revenues （ 2000-2005 ）
17
22.3
15.4 14.9
21
18.5
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
5
10
15
20
25
Fiscal Revenues (100M) Growth Rate(%)
page 15
Enterprise Profits (State-owned Enterprises and Non-state Owned Enterprises Above Designated Size)2000-2006
4,3935,784
8,337
11,929
14,803
18,784
4,733
02,000
4,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,000
18,00020,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Total Profits(100m)
page 16
I Current Situation of China’s Economy
Prices
page 17
Consumer Price Index （ CPI ）
0.40.7
-0.8
1.2
3.9
1.81.5
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
CPI
page 18
Producer Price Index (PPI) and Raw Material Price Index
2.3
8.4
6.7
3
4.96.1
-2.2-1.3
2.8
-0.3 -2
8.3
11.4
6
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
PPI Raw Materials
page 19
Enterprises Price Index of Industrial Products 企业商品价格指数 (by Central bank) （ 2005-2006.11 月度）
4.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2005
. 01
2005
. 03
2005
. 05
2005
. 07
2005
. 09
2005
. 11
2006
. 01
2006
. 03
2006
. 05
2006
. 07
2006
. 09
2006
. 11
page 20
I Current Situation of China’s Economy
Employment
page 21
Registered Unemployment Rate in Urban Area(2000-2006)
3.1
3.6
4
4.34.2 4.2
4.1
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
RegisteredUnemployment
page 22
Newly Employed Labor Force (2000-2006)
564
940
715 692
980 970
1184
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
newly employed labour
page 23
I Current Situation of China’s Economy
Balance of International
Payments
page 24
Balance of Imports and Exports(1978-2005)
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
page 25
Foreign Exchange Reserves(2000-2006)
30
34
51
41
35
7
28
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060
10
20
30
40
50
60
Foreign Reserves(USD 100m)Growth Rate(%)
page 26
Foreign Exchange Reserve (The Years of Above 5 、 10 、 50 、 1000 、 500 、 1000 (100 Million USD))
1.67 69.86 110.93516.2
1050.49
6099.32
10663
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1978 1982 1990 1994 1996 2004 2006
page 27
II Current Major Problems of China’s Economy
Too Rapid Investment
Growth
page 28
Growth Rate of GDP, Investment and Consumption （ 2000-2006 ）
10.7
24
13.7
10.410.1
10
8.4 8.3 9.1
13
16.9
25.726.627.7
10.3
9.1
10.1
9.78.8
13.3 12.9
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
GDP(%) Investment(%) Consumption(%)
page 29
Growth Rate of GDP, Investment and Consumption （ 1985-2006 ）
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
GDP(%) Investment(%) Consumption(%)
page 30
The Ratio of FAI in GDP(1953-2005 ）
5252
41
47
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1953
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2002
2004
2006
page 31
Investment Increase Rate
5.5
28
16.2
28.2
38.8
22.721.525.4
-7.2
2.4
23.9
44.4
61.8
30.4
17.514.8
8.813.9
5.110.3
1316.1
26.7
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Investment(billion yuan) Growth Rate(%)
page 32
Over-investment Is the Major Cause of Inflation
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05
GDP Growth Rate Inflation
page 33
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
GDP Growth RateInflation
FAI Growth Rate
Over-investment Is the Major Cause of Inflation
page 34
The Contributions of Investment to GDP
68.79
26.49
4.73
90.38
31.49
-21.87
73.16
26.97
-0.13
46.76
53.62
-0.38
41.6
52.06
6.34
34.11
66.68
-0.79
41.46
54.22
4.32
29.29
46.46
24.24
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Consumption Investment Net Exports
page 35
II Problems of Current Economic Situation
Too Rapid Increase of Money Supply
page 36
Over-supply of Money
16.917.619.6
12.3
17.6316.9
14.9
12.212.21411.2
8.398.8
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
5
10
15
20
25
GDP(100 mi l l i on yuan) M2(100 mi l l i on yuan)Money and Quasi -money(M2) CPI +GDP
page 37
M2/GDP
1.36
1.44
1.631.651.62
1.59
1.54
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5
1.55
1.6
1.65
1.7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
page 38
II Problems of Current Economic Situation
Foreign Trade Surplus
page 39
Balance of Foreign Trade(2000-2006)
Bal ance of Forei gn Trade(USD 100 mi l l i on)
241.1 225.4304.3 254.7 320
1018.8
1775
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
page 40
Trade Surplus (USD 100 million) (monthly, 2005-2006)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
page 41
II Problems of Current Economic Situation
Excessive Increase of Real
Estate Price
page 42
Price Index of Housing Sales
5. 5
3. 7
8. 87. 69. 7
4. 8
3. 7
2. 21. 1
0. 2 1. 30. 3 0. 3
6. 9
0123456789
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Pri ce I ndex of Nati onal Housi ng Sal esPri ce I ndex of Bei j i ng Housi ng Sal es
page 43
Price Index of Real Estate of 36 Large and Medium Size Cities (Second Quarter of 2006)
Cities Price Index of Housing Sales
Cities Price Index of Housing Sales
Beijing 108.7 Xiamen 107.0
Tianjing 106.7 Qingdao 107.0
Dalian 111.9 Wuhan 103.2
Shanghai 97.2 Guangzhou107.1
Najing 104.1 Shenzhen 114.4
Hangzhou 102.8 Chongqing 102.7
Average Index
105.7
page 44
Investment Induced Unhealthy Circle
Over Investme
nt
Exports Increase
Over-production capacities
Investment Increase
More Trade Surplus
Increase Supply of Basic Money
Increase LiquidityMore Investment
page 45
III Some Long-term Problems of China’s Economy
Some Long-Term Problems of China’s Economy
page 46
III Some Long-term Problems of China’s Economy
Residents Income Disparity
page 47
Income Growth Rates of Urban and Rural Residents(2000-2006)
1.95
4.3
6.2
10.2
7.28
9.24
12.29
9.6
12.1
6.8
4.635.01
9.37.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0 1 2 3 4 5 6Increase Rate of Net Cash Earnings By Rural ResidentsIncrease Rate of Disposable Incomes by Urban Residents
page 48
Income Gap Between Urban and Rural Residents (2000-2006)
4493.6
58786486
7238
8172
5227
4026.6
2.79
2.9
3.283.22
3.213.24
3.11
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
0 1 2 3 4 5 62.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
"Urban" Minus "Rural" "Urban" Divided by "Rural" 城镇/农村
page 49
Gini Coefficients 基尼系数《中国经济周刊 》 《人民网 》
0.288
0.343
0.4
0.470.465
0.397
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
81 90 99 0 5 6
page 50
III Some Long-term Problems of China’s Economy
Structure of Investment and Consumption
page 51
Structure of Investment and Consumption (2000-2006)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006ConsumptionInvestment
page 52
III Some Long-term Problems of China’s Economy
Structure of Three Industries
page 53
Growth Rates of the Secondary and the Tertiary Industries
12.7 12.5
10.3
11.711.1
9.8
9.4
8.4
9.7
10.4
9.5
1010.5
10.2
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
The Secondary Industry The Tertiary Industry
page 54
The Percentage of the Three Different Industries
1995
47.2
3319.8
2000
39.3
45.9
14.8
2005
47.5
12.5
40
2006
48.7
11.8
39.5
The Primary
The Secondar
y
The Tertiary
page 55
III Some Long-term Problems of China’s Economy
Resources, Energy Consumption and Pollution
page 56
Total Volume of Energy Consumption(2000-2005)
3.53
-2.63
12.51
15.28 16.14
9.89
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-5
0
5
10
15
20
Energy Consumption (10 Thousands tons of Coal Equivalent)Total Energy Consumption (Growth Rate %)
page 57
Total Consumption of Raw Coal(2000-2005)
1.52 1.72
5.43
18.86
15.47
11.36
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Total Consumption of Raw Coal(10 thousands tons of coal equivalent)Increase of Total Consumption of Raw Coal (%)
page 58
Total Consumption of Crude Oil(2000-2005)
6.46
1.84
8.519.37
16.76
3.34
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Total Consumption of Crude Oil(10 thousands tons of coal equivalent)Increase of total Consumption (%)
page 59
天然气消费总量 (2000-2005)
13.6912.15
6.42
16.18 17.04
22.572
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000年 2001年 2002年 2003年 2004年 2005年0
5
10
15
20
25
天然气消费总量(万吨标准煤) 天然气消费总量(增长率%)
page 60
Total Consumption of Water and Electricity(2000-2005)
11.71
22.05
3.452.12
20.39
11.75
0.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
6,000.00
8,000.00
10,000.00
12,000.00
14,000.00
16,000.00
18,000.00
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
5
10
15
20
25
Total Consumption of Water and Electricity (10 thousands tons of coalequivalent)Increase of Total Consumption (%)
page 61
Industrial Exhaust Gas Emissions(2000-2005)
8.94
16.45
8.95
13.49
19.5
13.16
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
5
10
15
20
25
Total Emissions (100 million cubic metre)Increase of Total Emissions (%)
page 62
Industrial Sulfur Dioxide (tons)(2000-2005)
10.419
-2.85-0.26
14.72
5.52
14.6714.77
23.53
7.31
18.83
22.52
-1.74
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Emissions EliminationIncrease Rate of Emissions (%) Increase Rate of Elimination (%)
page 63
Industrial Fume Dust (ton)(2000-2005)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Volume of Elimination Volume of Emissions
page 64
Industrial Dust (ton)(2000-2005)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Emissions Elimination
page 65
Energy consumption for unit GDP rose by 0.8 % in the first half of 2006
Industries Consumption Change
Unit
Coal mining +5.5% Per value added
Oil and Petrochemicals
+8.7% Per value added
Non-ferrous metals +0.4% Per unit of GDP
Electricity +0.8% Per unit of GDP
Chemical -5% Per unit of GDP
Textile -5.5% Per unit of GDP
Construction -1.2% Per unit of GDP
Steel -4.5% Per unit of GDP
page 66
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