co2 emission from land transport

8/8/2019 CO2 Emission From Land Transport

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Sud hir Gota & Bert Fab ianClean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Center

STAP-ADB Workshop ,Me tro Ma nila19 20 Oc to ber 2009

Estimating Emissions from Land Transporta t Country, City and Projec t Levels a c ritic a l look a t theory and prac tic e

The views expressed in this paper are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank(ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paperand accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The countries listed in this paper do not imply any view on ADB's part as tosovereignty or independent status or necessarily conform to ADB's terminology.


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Transport in Asian Cities is not Susta ina ble

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Motorization: exp losive growth in vehic les in Asia

Source: 2009. ADB, CAIAsia, Segment Y Ltd., and IEA

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100

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400

500

600

700

800

0

50

100

150

200

250

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400

450

2 0 0 5

2 0 1 5

2 0 2 5

2 0 3 5

2 0 0 5

2 0 1 5

2 0 2 5

2 0 3 5

2 0 0 5

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2 0 2 5

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2 0 0 5

2 0 1 5

2 0 2 5

2 0 3 5

2 0 0 5

2 0 1 5

2 0 2 5

2 0 3 5

2 0 0 5

2 0 1 5

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ASEAN(Major Countries)

CHINA INDIA OECD North America

OECD Europe OECD Pacific

m o t o r i z a t i o n i n d e x

t o t a l n u m b e r o f v e h i c l e s ( i n m i l l i o n s )

Total Vehicles (in millions) Motorization Index (V/1000 P)


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Source: Modified from IEA, 2008. World Energy Outlook

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400

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1200

1600

U n i t e d S t a t e s

E u r o p e

J a p a n

E u r a s i a

C h i n a

I n d i a

O t h e r A s i a

M i d d l e E a s t

A f r i c a

L a t i n A m e r i c a G

r o w t h o f C O

2

1 9 8 0 a s 1 0 0 f o r a l l

r e g i o n s

/ c o u n t r y

1980

1990

2000

2006

2020

2030

Motoriza tion: explosive growth in CO2 emissions


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Motoriza tion: need to address adverse impac ts

75% of increased global fuel consumption will be intransport

Transport share in PM in some megacities can be ashigh as 50% (Xian, Hyderabad)

Worldwide road accidents - 1.2 million people are killedand as many as 50 million are injured. Future increaseby about 65% over the next 20 years in BAU

6Source: Sarath Guttikunda (2009), WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety, Accidents, IEA


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Co-benefits in addressing adverse impac ts

7Source: ADB and CAIAsia Center, 2009 (for publication)

Co-benefits in transport projects:

How do we measure? When do we measure? What do we do with measurements? Do we continue measuring?


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Ana lysis a t City Level Indian c ities

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Indian cities showstrong correlationbetween emissions ofair pollutants and GHGs

Some cities emissionsas much as smallcountries

As cities grow in size,transport emissionsincrease

Importance of catchingcities early before theystart to grow


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Bangalore (2001)

Bangalore 2008

Bangalore 2025

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8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

50 52 54 56 58 60 62

PT and NMT Share%

C O 2 ( t o n s

/ d a y

)

Analysis a t City Level Bangalore

Number of busesdoubled in 7 years (2001-2007)

Average trip lengthincreased by 2.5km

Per capita energyconsumption increasedfrom 3.59 to 9.67 MJ/day

With current mode shareper capita energyconsumption wouldincrease to 15 MJ/day!

But which data wereused??


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Analysis a t Projec t Level

2-stroke Tric yc le replac ement in Metro Manila

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BAU (with normal

scrappage with no policy)

Replacement within 5 years

Replacement in 10 Years

BAU ( no replacement )

Replacement within 5 Years with project

duration of 10 years

Replacement during 10 Year

Project Duration of 20 Years Project Duration of 10 Years

Average CO2 Emissions (000 Tons)/YearAverage Million Liters of Gasoline/Year

73,000 polluting 2-stroke tricycles inManila

Options include banning, replacement,retrofitting

Delaying action is costly: 22% moreemissions and fuel use if tricycles

replaced in 10 years instead of 5 years Replacement costs are 110 million$,

with 20 million$ average savings/yearfor 20 years

Barrier for owner: high replacementcosts and long payback period

Solution: designing revolving fund withlimited investment can get the $$ back

and allow for wider Philippines program


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Analysis a t Projec t Level

2-stroke Tric yc le replac ement in Metro Manila (b)What should the project duration be, considering long-term benefits?

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0

100

200

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BAU (with

normal

scrappage with no policy)

Replacement

within 5 years Replacement

in 10 Years BAU ( no

replacement ) Replacement

within 5 Years with project

duration of 10 years

Replacement

during 10 Year

Project Duration of 20 Years Project Duration of 10 Years

Average CO2 Emissions (000 Tons)/Year

Average Million Liters of Gasoline/Year


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Ana lysis a t Projec t Level - Marikina Bikeways

52 km bikeways, 3.45 million$ (funded byMarikina, GEF/WB)

Bike share In 2015 is 12.3% (GEF estimates) In 2006 already 9.8% (compared to 2.8% in 2000)

Environmental analysis 2000-2020: 62,000 tons CO 2 36 tons PM 72 tons NOx

Economic analysis EIRR 2000-2020: Fuel savings: 9%

Fuel plus CO2 savings (10$/ton CO2): 10% Fuel plus CO2 savings (100$/ton CO2): 11%

Only CO2 emission reductions will never justifyNMT investments

14Source: World Bank GEF, UP NCTS, Analysis by CAIAsia Center


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Analysis a t Corridor Level: India National Highways

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C O 2 ( M i l l i o n T o n s )

Impact of Improving speed

With Improvementand Induced Traffic

With Improvement but withoutInduced Traffic

WithoutImprovement

Emissions from some corridors are as high as Cities !!

Induced traffic must be considered in transport project appraisal


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Rec om mendations

Co-benefits are important in addressing adverse impacts frommotorization growth

Largest emission growth expected in expanding cities Induced traffic must be considered in transport project

appraisal Without reliable data , transport emissions forecasting is as

good as fortune telling Different data sources, study areas, methodologies = different

numbers Early action is critical to achieve emission reductions Consider long-term benefits of projects climate change is a

long-term problem CO2 emission reductions will not significantly alter economic

analysis of transport projects need to develop alternativeways of valuing benefits16


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Our Future ?


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11/5/2009 18

Sophie Punte, Exec utive Direc [email protected]

Bert Fabian, Transport Program Ma [email protected]

Sudhir Gota, Transport Spec [email protected]

Unit 3510, 35 th floorRobinsons-Equitable Towe r

ADB Avenue , Pasig CityMetro Ma nila 1605

Philippines

www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia

CAI-Asia Center
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

co2 emission from land transport

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