Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Photo image area measures 2” H x 6.93” W and can be masked by a collage strip of one, two or three images.

The photo image area is located 3.19” from left and 3.81” from top of page.

Each image used in collage should be reduced or cropped to a maximum of 2” high, stroked with a 1.5 pt white frame and positioned edge-to-edge with accompanying images.

Michael W. Slimak, Ph.D.

Climate Change and Invasive Species

The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and they do not

necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Source: Koblinsky 2006 ICLEI

Observed Temperature Changes 1901 - 2004

Observed Temp Trends & Ecosystem Responses

Cht. 14, IPCC 2007

UrbanizationFlow regulation

Etc.

Climate ChangeAnthropogenicChange(Drivers)

ISS IAG IJG ISDABiological

ImpactSpawningSubstrate

AdultGrowth

SpawningDays

Available

JuvenileGrowth

FlowStressors

Food

Sediment Temperature

Climate Change not the only StressorInteractive effect of multiple stressors; climate is exacerbating

Temperature, hydrologic, geomorphic ecological processes & species

5Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Take Home Message

• Earth is getting warmer; climate is changing with a regional texture • Anthropogenic global warming due to excess GHG’s; CO2 the most

important• Rate of GHG increase and rate of global warming is of concern • Climate change and invasive species are inextricably linked • As climate changes, we can expect ecosystem changes• Ecosystem changes results in shifts in plant and animal distributions• Rapid ecosystem change favors species with high genetic plasticity• Many successful invaders have high plasticity as they are pioneers • Profound impact on co-evolution of ecosystems and their components

6Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

US Government’s Climate Change Science Program

• Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)– 13 federal agencies

– Current research & assessments based on 2003 strategic plan

• Five broad goals1. Research of past & present climate change & variability

2. Quantification of Earth’s climate and related systems

3. Reduce uncertainty in climate change projections

4. Understand climate change impacts to ecosystems & humans

5. Knowledge to manage risks & opportunities related to climate change

7Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Reports

• 21 Reports due out over the next year• The “4 series” involves impacts and adaptation

4.1 Sea level rise

4.2 Thresholds of change

4.3 Impacts on agriculture, biodiversity, land & water resources

4.4 Adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems

4.5 Impacts on energy production

4.6 Impacts on human health, welfare and human settlements

4.7 Impacts on transportation systems

• Available at WWW. USGCRP.GOV

2007 IPCC Report on Impacts & AdaptationMain Points for Freshwater Systems & Management

• Seasonal shift in streamflow– Increased winter flows, less snow storage

• Decreased water resources in Western US– Decreased groundwater recharge due to increased population and

water demand• Increased precipitation intensity & variability

– Increased flooding & drought in many areas• Increased water temp, precipitation intensity, and longer periods of

low flows exacerbate water pollution • Sea level rise will increase saltwater intrusion into groundwater &

estuaries–Decreased freshwater availability in coastal areas

Table SPM-1 from IPCC 2007 4th Assessment

10Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Watersheds are highly sensitive to climate changeGlobal Warming Intensifies the Hydrologic Cycle

In many areas significant changes are likely:- hydrology - water quality - ecosystems

Overview of impacts of climate change on rivers

• Temperature increases likely in most regions

• Rainfall changes less certain: extreme events like storms/droughts will be more common in some areas and less so in others

• Snowmelt earlier in some regions

…. % change in run-off

13Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Current Water Stress Levels

Chap. 3, IPCC 2007

14Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Increases in Rainfall

Trends in precipitation: 1901-1998

Green = increaseBrown = decrease

Trends in proportion of precipitation occurring as extreme events: 1910-1995

Shift from Snowfall to Rainfall

Knowles et al. 2005, AGU

Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge (MD)

1938

1980N

MarshOpen WaterUpland

1 0 1 2 3

Kilometers

17Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Climate Change Effects on Aquatic Invasive Species

• Several mechanisms of effects and many consequences for AIS• Changes in air temperature influence changes in water

temperature• Changes in precipitation timing and amount affect water

quantity and quality, and timing of flows• Thermal expansion and polar melting cause sea level rise• Increasing atmospheric CO2 decreases pH

Effects vary regionally and seasonally

Alterations have consequences throughout ecosystem

18Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Some Consequences for Water Quality

• Re-suspension of bottom sediments & compounds from lower water levels

• Increased turbidity from more intense rainfall• Increased pollution washed from soils from more intense rainfall• Increased algal blooms from increased water temperatures• Enhanced transfer of volatile & semi-volatile compounds with

increasing water temperature• Increased acidification from acidic atmospheric deposition

Chap. 3, IPCC 2007

19Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Aquatic Ecosystem Impacts

Increasing water temperatures• Decreasing O2 concentration, P release from sediments, increasing

thermal stability, altered mixing patterns in lakes• Earlier ice cover break up, increasing ice free periods• Species moving up in altitude and latitude

– Changing species composition

– Changing seasonality & productivity of plankton

– Changing food web interactions

Chap. 4, IPCC 2007

Evidence of Stream Warming

Strong evidence of changes in length of season

Freeze dates are later,thaw dates are earlier

From J.J. Magnuson and IPCC reports

Climate Change & Fish Habitat in US Streams

Mohseni et al. (2003)

22Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Aquatic Ecosystem Impacts

Increasing UV-B radiation & temperature• Increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC)• Altered biogeochemical cycles• Changed (probably increased) net primary productivity• Q10 phenomenon

Chap. 4, IPCC 2007

Increased Biological Production

Benke 1993 Elliott and Hurley 2000

24Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Is it Possible to Reduce Impacts to Aquatic Ecosystems?

Increase resilience of ecosystems• Reduce impacts from other stressors (e.g., pollution, acidification,

desertification, eutrophication, invasive species)– Likely to enhance resilience to climate change

• Maintain habitat connectivity, population sizes, genetic diversity• Restore habitat

– Activities need to account for new environmental conditions

SAP 4.4 of US Climate Change evaluates adaptation options

25Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Bottom Line

• Climate is changing• Rate of change is more rapid than previously experienced• Will result in profound ecosystem changes• Will favor species with high genetic plasticity• Likely to have major implications for controlling aquatic invasive

species

26Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

For additional information…

EPA Climate Change

www.epa.gov/climatechange/

EPA Global Change Research Program

cfpub.epa.gov/gcrp/

Climate Change Science Program

www.climatescience.gov/

www.usgcrp.gov

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

www.ipcc.ch/

27Office of Research and DevelopmentNational Center for Environmental Assessment

Acknowledgements

Britta Bierwagen, EPA

Margaret Palmer, University of Maryland

EPA’s Global Change Research Program