POPULATION CHANGE IN NEW BRUNSWICK

Barry Edmonston

Population Resource Group

University of Victoria

IMMIGRATION FLOWS

About 250,000 annual immigrants to Canada Most settle in three large metropolitan areas Rapidity, size, and concentration of the in-

flow Relatively few immigrants in other places,

especially smaller towns and rural areas Nevertheless, immigrants can have large

effects for smaller populations and there are recent program to encourage settlement in new destinations

INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION Interprovincial migration is large: about

500,000 people migrate annually, and more than 2 million persons change their province of residence over a five-year period

For Atlantic provinces, these flows are usually larger than international migration

In recent years, large flows into Alberta, British Columbia, and Ontario

REPERCUSSIONS OF LOW FERTILITY Because of low childbearing levels,

migration has become the major demographic force affecting local population growth

Communities and provinces will experience population decreases in the absence of counterbalancing in-migration

Understandable that municipalities and provinces are interested in programs to reduce out-migration and to promote in-migration

TODAY’S PRESENTATION

Components of population change in New Brunswick

Alternative population futures for New Brunswick

Recent migration flows in New Brunswick

New immigrant destinations in Canada

UNPEELING THE POPULATION ONION What factors affect population change

in New Brunswick? Let’s examine births, death,

international migration, and interprovincial migration trends for the past fifteen years

After looking at annual components of change, let’s look at the relative effects on long-term population growth

POPULATION GROWTH FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005

742

744

746

748

750

752

754

1991 2001 2005

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

in 100

0s

ANNUAL NATURAL INCREASE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000

1991

2001

2005

Year

Ann

ual C

hang

e

BirthsDeathsNat Incr

ANNUAL NET MIGRATION FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

1991 2001 2005

Year

Ann

ual C

hang

e

DomesticInternationalOverall

ANNUAL CHANGE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1991 2001 2005

Year

Ann

ual C

hang

e

Nat IncrNet MigOverall

ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR NEW BRUNSWICK’S POPULATION It is hard to see the future when we are

in the midst of a changing population Current New Brunswick population is

greatly affected by current age structure and the age distribution of migrants arriving and leaving

A useful model is to, first, imagine what New Brunswick’s population would be with replacement-level fertility and no net migration

BASIC COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 2005 Population is 752,000 and slowly

decreasing Births=6,880 (with TFR=1.4 children) Deaths=6,561 So, annual natural increase is +300, but

will decrease steadily in future years and staying negative as long as below replacement-level fertility prevails

MIGRATION COMPONENTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 2005 Immigrants=1,330 Emigrants=-300 So, net immigration is 1,030 In-migrants from other provinces=10,950 Out-migrants to other provinces=12,600 So, net interprovincial migration is -1,650 And, overall net migration is -650

COMPARISON OF CURRENT CHANGES FOR LONG-TERM POPULATION FUTURE If there were replacement-level fertility

(about 10,200 births instead of current 6,900), New Brunswick’s population would stabilize at 702,000, or about 50,000 few people than in 2005

How much does current fertility and current migration affect this long-term population level of 702,000?

CONTRIBUTION OF BIRTHS AND MIGRATION TO LONG-TERM POPULATION LEVEL OF 702,000 Current births: -9,100 International Migration, Immigration: +2,100 Emigration: -300 Domestic Migration, In-Migration: +15,100 Out-Migration: -17,800 Overall effect of Migration: -900 This tells us that long-term population is

declining by -10,000 (-9,100 and -900) each year current birth and migration levels continue

FEMALE AGE DISTRIBUTION FOR NEW BRUNSWICK

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Age

Percen

t o

f T

ota

l P

op

ula

tio

n

Current No Migration Current Migration Replacement Migration

DEMOGRAPHIC OPTIONS ARE LIMITED In the context of current demographic

changes, the basic options are narrow: increase births by 48% to 10,200 per year or increase in-migration by 60% to about 20,000 per year

The current changes and options have important effects on New Brunswick’s future age distribution as well

Can fertility or migration be affected (practically, effectively, at low cost)?

WHO COMES: IMMIGRANT NUMBERS In recent years, the annual number of

immigrant arrivals in the Atlantic Provinces has varied between 2,800 and 5,000

The largest share of immigrants have settled in Nova Scotia

In order to compare provinces, it is useful to calculate the number of immigrant arrivals relative to population size

IMMIGRANT ARRIVAL RATES FOR CANADA, 2002

Canada

Newfoundland

PEI

Nova Scotia

New Brunswick

Quebec

Ontario

Manitoba

Saskatchewan

Alberta

British Columbia

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

7

1

1

2

1

5

11

4

2

5

8

Number of Immigrant Arrivals per 1,000 Residents

MIGRATION IN THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES Trends for 1996 to 2001 for: (i)

Canada-born residents (ii) resident immigrants who were in Canada in 1996 and (iii) immigrant arrivals who arrived in Canada between 1996 and 2001

We look at five groups: (i) children and youth (ii) post-secondary students (iii) non-working adults (iv) working adults and (v) retirees

NATIVITY OF MIGRANTS

Useful to examine three groups Canada-born residents who move

interprovincially Resident immigrants who were in Canada

five years ago and move interprovincially Immigrants arrivals during the past five

years and who make their initial provincial settlement (they might move later, of course)

MIGRANT TYPES

Migrants move for different reasons, with many moving primarily for employment.

Consider five types: Children less than 18 years Post-secondary students, 18 to 25 years and

attending school full-time Non-working adults, 18 to 64 years and not

working Working adults, 18+ years and working Retirees, 65+ years and not working

MIGRANTS IN THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES: 1996-2001

-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150

New Brunswick

Nova Scotia

Prince Edward Island

Newfoundland

Total

In

Out

Net

NATIVITY VARIATONS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Immigrant Arrivals

Resident Immigrants

Canada-Born Residents

Total

In

Out

Net

TYPES OF MIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Retirees

Working Adults

Non-Working Adults

Post-Secondary Students

Children

Total

In

Out

Net

CANADA-BORN MIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Retirees

Working Adults

Non-Working Adults

Post-Secondary Students

Children

Total

In

Out

Net

RESIDENT IMMIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Retirees

Working Adults

Non-Working Adults

Post-Secondary Students

Children

Total

In

Out

Net

IMMIGRANT ARRIVALS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Retirees

Working Adults

Non-Working Adults

Post-Secondary Students

Children

Total

In

Out

Net

BROADER CONTEXT FOR MIGRATION Immigrants constitute almost one-fifth

of the Canadian population but are less common in small towns and rural areas

There has been a continued out-migration of younger adults from smaller towns and rural areas across Canada

Provinces with more people in smaller towns and rural areas are more likely to experience out-migration

THEORIES ABOUT WHERE MIGRANTS SETTLE Urbanization is worldwide: a defining

aspect of migration is that it is often from rural to urban areas

Many factors influence choice of settlement destinations, including economic, social, and cultural factors

Two types of settlement processes: persistence of established locations and emergence of new locations for migrants

PERSISTENCE OF ESTABLISHED LOCATIONS Over time, migrants develop social

networks that provide relationships for movement

Migrants from a particular ethnic background develop ethnic-based resources

Local communities respond to migrant flows in ways that assist the continued arrival of newcomers

Once migration is established, continued migration usually persists for established migrant groups

NEW LOCATIONS FOR MIGRANTS New locations challenge the persistence

perspective…why do they arise? New or unusually rapid employment growth New employment sectors that recruit

workers Centralization of employment, such as

meatpacking, in areas with limited workers Sponsorship or deliberate recruitment of

newcomers

IMMIGRANT SETTLEMENT AND RESETTLEMENT Migration is closely tied to local economic

growth and employment opportunities Whether economic development or

population growth comes first is a debatable point

However, a community’s success in generating employment growth will ultimately determine the effect on migration – for both Canada-born and immigrants

CANADA’S IMMIGRANT DESTINATIONS, 2002

Canada

Newfoundland

Prince Edward Island

Nova Scotia

New Brunswick

Ontario

0 5 10 15 20 25Number of Immigrant Arrivals per 1,000 Residents

Rural

SmallerTownsLargerCities

Overall

TOP TEN SMALL TOWNS RECEIVING IMMIGRANTS

Winkler, MB

Lethbridge, AB

Fort McMurray, AB

Steinbach, MB

Lac du Bonnet, MB

Canmore, AB

Prince George, BC

Squamish, BC

Minnedosa, MB

Gimli, MB

0 5 10 15 20Number of Immigrant Arrivals per 1,000 Residents

IMMIGRATION TO SMALL TOWNS 7 communities have strong

employment growth; some in only one industry

Remaining 3 communities have diversified, growing employment

Manitoba nominee program is important

Several of the communities have immigrant recruitment programs and work hard to attract newcomers

CONCLUDING COMMENTS

Low fertilility in New Brunswick poses population challenges for next decade

Immigrant arrivals in small towns suggests that new destinations for immigrants can be developed

Employment, community programs, and provincial immigration selection policies can create new immigration destinations

Chicken or the egg: jobs and migrants

THAT’S ALL FOLKS!