©2004 pjm 1 state of the market report 2003 joseph e. bowring manager pjm market monitoring unit...
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©2004 PJMwww.pjm.com 1
STATE OF THE MARKET REPORT 2003
Joseph E. BowringManagerPJM Market Monitoring Unit
FERC BriefingWashington, D.C.April 14, 2004
©2004 PJMwww.pjm.com 2
State of the Market Conclusions
• Energy market results were competitive
• Capacity market results in PJM Mid-Atlantic Region were competitive
• Capacity market in PJM Western Region – no functioning competitive market
• Regulation market results were competitive
• Spinning market results were competitive
• FTR market results were competitive
©2004 PJMwww.pjm.com 3
2003 PJM Average Hourly Load and Spot Market Volume
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Average PJM Aggregate Supply Curves: June to September 2002 and 2003
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PJM Peak Load Comparison: Friday, August 22, 2003, and Wednesday, August 14, 2002
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PJM Average Hourly Locational Marginal Prices (in Dollars per MWh)
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PJM Load-Weighted, Average LMP (in Dollars per MWh)
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PJM Load-Weighted, Fuel-Cost-Adjusted LMP (in Dollars per MWh)
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Load-Weighted Average Monthly LMP: Real-Time Market
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Natural Gas Cash Prices
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Type of Fuel Used by Marginal Units
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PJM Average Monthly Load
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Price Duration CurveHours Above the 95th Percentile
©2003 PJM
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Load Duration Curve
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Average All-In Market Price
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
($/M
Wh)
Energy Cost Capacity Cost Ancillary Cost Uplift Cost
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PJM Average Hourly System LMP
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PJM Hourly Energy Market HHI: 2003
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PJM RSI Index Duration Curve: 2002-2003
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Average Monthly Load-Weighted Markup Indices
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PJM Mid-Atlantic Region’s Capacity Obligations: Januarythrough May 2003
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PJM Capacity Obligations: June through December 2003
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PJM Daily and Monthly Capacity Credit Market Performance:January 2000 through December 2003
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Estimated Net RevenueCombustion Turbine
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
($ p
er In
stal
led
MW
- Y
ear)
CT Energy Capacity Ancillary
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Equivalent Forced Outage Rates
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
EF
OR
d (%
)
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Queued Capacity by In-Service Date
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Average Real-Time Offer-Capped Units (by Month)
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Percent of Real-Time Offer-Capped MW (by Month)
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PJM Real-Time Imports and Exports: 2003
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Annual Zonal LMP Differences: Reference to Western Hub
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ARR and FTR Congestion Hedging