ipsos mori scottish independence referendum june 2014

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Scottish Public Opinion Monitor June 2014

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention

Base: All (1,003); all certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014

Yes 34%

No 52%

Undecided 13%

All voters

Yes 36%

No 54%

Undecided 10%

Certain to vote

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention – recent trend

Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14

No

Yes

Undecided

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Voting intention excluding undecided

Base: All excluding undecided (881); all certain to vote excluding undecided (766). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June

2014

Yes 40%

No 60%

All voters

Yes 40%

No 60%

Certain to vote

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Referendum voting intention excluding undecided –

recent trend

Base: All certain to vote excluding undecided. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14

No

Yes

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Q. Should Scotland be an independent country?

Voting intention amongst those certain to vote and

definitely decided how they will vote

Base: All certain to vote and definitely decided (660). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014

Yes 40%

No 60%

All definitely decided and certain to vote

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14

No

Yes

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Q. And, how likely would you be to vote in an immediate referendum, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote and 1 that you would be absolutely certain NOT to vote?

Increase in self-reported turnout

Base: All. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14

55+

All

16-24

% Absolutely certain to vote

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37% Scots who…

may not vote (18%)

will vote but are undecided (8%)

will vote but may change their vote (11%)

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18% 19% 17%

82% 81% 83%

All Yes voters No voters

Definitelydecided

May changemind

Q. (To all giving a voting intention) Have you definitely decided to vote in this way or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Q. (To all undecided voters) Which way are you most inclined to vote?

Definitely decided or might you change your

mind?

Base: All giving a voting intention (881). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Feb-12 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13

% Definitely decided

No

Yes

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Q. (To all giving a voting intention) Have you definitely decided to vote in this way or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Q. (To all undecided voters) Which way are you most inclined to vote?

Which way are undecided voters leaning?

Base: All undecided (122). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014

Yes 23%

No 32%

Undecided 45%

All undecided voters

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Long-term trend of support for independence

Data taken from MORI and Ipsos MORI polling (1999-07 data taken from Scottish Social Attitudes Survey)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

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Voting intention by gender

Base: All certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014

46%

46%

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Men Women

% voting Yes

28%

61%

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38%

51%

11%

Voting intention by age group

Base: All certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014

Yes

No

45%

44%

39%

51%

9%

31%

61%

9%

16-24 25-34

35-54 55+ 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

16-24* 25-34 35-54 55+

*Jan 2012 – May 2013 this was 18-24 year olds

% voting Yes

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Voting intention by levels of deprivation

Base: All certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014

41%

51%

33%

59%

Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

Yes

No

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Most deprived areas Least deprived areas

% voting Yes

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96% 10%

85% 6%

Voting intention by party support

Base: All certain to vote (842). Data collected among 1,003 Scottish adults 16+, 26th May – 1st June 2014

Yes

No

79%

10%

8% 81%

11%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

SNP Lab Con Lib Dem

% voting Yes

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Technical details

• This presents the topline results from Scotland

• Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents

(adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone

• Fieldwork dates: 26th May – 1st June 2014

• Data are weight by: age, sex and working status using

census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private

sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly

Public Sector Employment series data

• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to

computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of

“don’t know” categories

• Results are based on all respondents (1,003) unless

otherwise stated

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Thank you mark.diffley@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3269

christopher.mclean@ipsos.com | 0131 240 3264 @IpsosMORIScot