connecting the dots · 26 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 acoustics agricultural...
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Connecting the dotsfrom submission to decision, the fate of scholarly papers
Ian Potter Frankfurt Book Fair 2017
11 October 2017
11
Peer Review Publication
resubmission elsewhere
Manuscriptauthoring
Submitteddocument
Peer review
Decision
revision
Acceptedmanuscript
Rejectedmanuscript
Publishedarticle
Publicationjournal
Measuresof impact
‘lost’ impact
12
Some assumptions
- This on an ongoing update of our Scholarly Publishing Insights data
- Based on aggregated data from our submission and review platform
- No publisher-level details are disclosed
- Mapping to the Web of Science is to SCI-E and SSCI (for impact quartiles)
- Data is based on submission year. Accept, reject rates are for manuscripts in that submission year cohort
- Country is the country of the submitting author
- WoS Category (of 252) and ESI Research Field (of 22) for any journal is the one in which it has the highest Impact Factor rank percentile (journals may be in more than one category)
13
A story of growth
14
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Num
bero
fliv
eSc
hola
rOne
site
s
46.4%47.3%
49.2%50.7%
52.4%
ScholarOne Sites
S1M sites indexed inthe Web of Science*
*SCI-E and SSCI only.
In 2016 ~6,200 publications
and 52% are in the two main WoS editors
15
Manuscript submissions
16
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Original submissions
Re-submissions
Revised submissions
Num
bero
fman
uscr
ipts
In 2016 >1.9 million original submissions
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Accept rateReject rateReject without Review rate
%of
final
deci
sion
s
Change decline in the overall accept rate, matched with a slow rise in the reject without review rate
18
Mapping to the Web of Science
19
submiss
ions
toW
ebof
Scie
nce
inde
xed
titles*
not indexed
72% of submissions to
ScholarOne Manuscripts are to WoS indexed title
20
quar
tile
4
not indexedqu
artil
e 1
quartile 2
>35% in top quartile journals
21
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2.1% 2.8% 3.5% 3.9% 4.4%
Num
bero
fsub
mis
sion
s
Non-Open Access
Open Access†
†SCI-E, SSCI, AHCI, ESCI
<5% Currently in gold OA titles
22
The scope of current research
23
100,000
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20122016
Annu
alor
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sion
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Chemistry, multidisciplinary
Engineering, electrical &
electronic
Food Science & Technology
Materials Science, multidisciplinary
Management
Medicine, general & internal
Environmental Sciences
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20122016
Annu
alor
igin
alsu
bmis
sion
s(’0
00s)
Chemistry
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28
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30
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Accept No-OAAccept OA
%of
final
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Accept rates for gold OA slightly higher
31
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
No-OAOA
%of
final
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Reject rates for gold OA slightly lower
32
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
No-OAOA
%of
final
deci
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Reject without review rates don’t differ
33
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Agric
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34
20
25
30
35
40
45
Not Indexed Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
20122013201420152016
Acce
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Accept rates higher for un-indexed content
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35
50
55
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Not Indexed Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
20122013201420152016
Reje
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0
10
20
30
40
50
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Not Indexed Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
20122013201420152016
Reje
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38
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US
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MET
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LISM
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DEN
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SURG
ERY
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EDIC
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GAST
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EPAT
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NEP
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PERI
PHER
ALVA
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LAR
DISE
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TOXI
COLO
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EMIS
TRY,
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EMIC
ALCR
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INAL
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VASC
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STEM
SN
ANO
SCIE
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&N
ANO
TECH
NO
LOGY
HO
RTIC
ULT
URE
Decision time varies considerably across subjects
39
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Agric
ultu
ralS
cien
ces
Biol
ogy
&Bi
oche
mis
try
Chem
istr
y
Clin
ical
Med
icin
e
Com
pute
rSci
ence
Econ
omic
s&Bu
sine
ss
Engi
neer
ing
Envi
ronm
ent/
Ecol
ogy
Geos
cien
ces
Mat
eria
lsSc
ienc
e
Mat
hem
atic
s
Mic
robi
olog
y
Mol
ecul
arBi
olog
y&
Gene
tics
Mul
tidis
cipl
inar
y
Neu
rosc
ienc
e&
Beha
vior
Not
Foun
d
Phar
mac
olog
y&
Toxi
colo
gy
Phys
ics
Plan
t&An
imal
Scie
nce
Psyc
hiat
ry/P
sych
olog
y
Soci
alSc
ienc
es,g
ener
al
Spac
eSc
ienc
e
Mea
ntim
efr
omor
igin
alsu
bmis
sion
tofin
alde
cisi
on(d
ays)
Non-open access
Open access
Decision time Generally longer for non-OA
40
20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Mean time from original submission to final decision (days)
Non-open access
Open access
Mean time from original submission to final decision (days)
41
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
not indexed
quartile 1
quartile 2quartile 3
quartile 4
Mea
ntim
efr
omor
igin
alsu
bmis
sion
tofin
alde
cisi
on(d
ays)
Decision times improve overall — quicker in upper impact quartiles
42
Submissions by geography
43
subs
2012
(’000
s)
subs
2012
(’000
s)
Country2016 rank
Growth0
100%
336.
5
275.
2USA1
22.3%
336.
2
183.
2
China2
83.5%
122.
8
74.3
India3
65.3%
100.
5
84.9
UK4
18.4%
70.1
38.5
Iran5
82.0%
52.7
42.7
Germany9
23.3%
50.3
40.5
Canada10
24.2%
46.8
31.7
Turkey11
47.6%
45.7
37.8
Italy12
21.0%
41.8
33.3
Spain13
25.4%
35.5
29.1
France14
22.2%
24.4
21.1
Netherlands17
15.2%
67.8
28.7
Brazil6
13
6.0%
56.2
40.4
Australia8
39.1%
67.4
57.6
Japan7
16.9%
29.2
30.6
Taiwan16
-4.5%
23.937
.4
South Korea18
-36.1
%
17.3
9.1
Egypt19
91.4%
17.1
13.7
Sweden20
24.2
subs
2012
(’000
s)
subs
2012
(’000
s)
Country2016 rank
Growth0
100%
336.
5
275.
2
USA1
22.3%
336.
2
183.
2
China2
83.5%
122.
8
74.3
India3
65.3%
100.
5
84.9
UK4
18.4%
70.1
38.5
Iran5
82.0%
52.7
42.7
Germany9
23.3%
50.3
40.5
Canada10
24.2%
46.8
31.7
Turkey11
47.6%
45.7
37.8
Italy12
21.0%
41.8
33.3
Spain13
25.4%
35.5
29.1
France14
22.2%
24.4
21.1
Netherlands17
15.2%
67.8
28.7
Brazil6
13
6.0%
56.2
40.4
Australia8
39.1%
67.4
57.6
Japan7
16.9%
29.2
30.6
Taiwan16
-4.5%
23.937
.4
South Korea18
-36.1
%
17.3
9.1
Egypt19
91.4%
17.1
13.7
Sweden20
24.2
subs
2012
(’000
s)
subs
2012
(’000
s)
Country2016 rank
Growth0
100%
336.
5
275.
2
USA1
22.3%
336.
2
183.
2
China2
83.5%
122.
8
74.3
India3
65.3%
100.
5
84.9
UK4
18.4%
70.1
38.5
Iran5
82.0%
52.7
42.7
Germany9
23.3%
50.3
40.5
Canada10
24.2%
46.8
31.7
Turkey11
47.6%
45.7
37.8
Italy12
21.0%
41.8
33.3
Spain13
25.4%
35.5
29.1
France14
22.2%
24.4
21.1
Netherlands17
15.2%
67.8
28.7
Brazil6
13
6.0%
56.2
40.4
Australia8
39.1%
67.4
57.6
Japan7
16.9%
29.2
30.6
Taiwan16
-4.5%
23.937
.4
South Korea18
-36.1
%
17.3
9.1
Egypt19
91.4%
17.1
13.7
Sweden20
24.2
subs
2012
(’000
s)
subs
2012
(’000
s)
Country2016 rank
Growth0
100%
336.
5
275.
2
USA1
22.3%
336.
2
183.
2
China2
83.5%
122.
8
74.3
India3
65.3%
100.
5
84.9
UK4
18.4%
70.1
38.5
Iran5
82.0%
52.7
42.7
Germany9
23.3%
50.3
40.5
Canada10
24.2%
46.8
31.7
Turkey11
47.6%
45.7
37.8
Italy12
21.0%
41.8
33.3
Spain13
25.4%
35.5
29.1
France14
22.2%
24.4
21.1
Netherlands17
15.2%
67.8
28.7
Brazil6
13
6.0%
56.2
40.4
Australia8
39.1%
67.4
57.6
Japan7
16.9%
29.2
30.6
Taiwan16
-4.5%
23.937
.4
South Korea18
-36.1
%
17.3
9.1
Egypt19
91.4%
17.1
13.7
Sweden20
24.2
44
336.
5
275.
2
USA1
22.3% 33
6.2
183.
2
China2
83.5%
122.
8
74.3
India3
65.3%
100.
5
84.9
UK4
18.4%
70.1
38.5
Iran5
82.0%
67.8
28.7
Brazil6
136.0
%
Submission parity Between US and China in 2017
45
USA1
17.6%
20.5
%China2
17.6%
13.7
%
India3
6.4%
5.5%
UK4
5.3%
6.3%
Iran5
3.7%
2.9%
Brazil6
3.5%
2.1%
Japan7
3.5%
2.1%
Country2016 rank
2016share2012
shar
e
Decline in proportion of global submissions
Increase in proportion of global submissions
46
Decision rates by country
China2
2012
2016
0 100
India3
2012
2016
0 100
Japan7
2012
2016
0 100
Brazil6
2012
2016
0 100
Iran5
2012
2016
0 100
USA1
2012
2016
0 100
Country2016 rank
2012
2016
0 100per cent of final decisions
reject withreview
accept reject
UK4
2012
2016
0 100
Germany9
2012
2016
0 100
Canada10
2012
2016
0 100
Australia8
2012
2016
0 100
China2
2012
2016
0 100
India3
2012
2016
0 100
Japan7
2012
2016
0 100
Brazil6
2012
2016
0 100
Iran5
2012
2016
0 100
USA1
2012
2016
0 100
Country2016 rank
2012
2016
0 100per cent of final decisions
reject withreview
accept reject
UK4
2012
2016
0 100
Germany9
2012
2016
0 100
Canada10
2012
2016
0 100
Australia8
2012
2016
0 100
48
China2
2012
2016
0 100
India3
2012
2016
0 100
Brazil6
2012
2016
0 100
Iran5
2012
2016
0 100
USA1
2012
2016
0 100
UK4
2012
2016
0 100
49
Decision time by country
50
USA1
2012
2016
15.4
12.9
Country2016 rank
average for 2012
2016
12.6weeks
8.5weeks
1 week
final decision
first decision
UK4
2012
2016
15.5
11.8
Germany9
2012
2016
15.0
12.8
Canada10
2012
2016
16.6
12.9
Australia9
2012
2016
15.6
11.8
Iran5
2012
2016
11.5
6.5
Brazil6
2012
2016
11.9
9.7
Japan7
2012
2016
12.5
11.9
China2
2012
2016
10.9
9.7
India3
2012
2016
11.6
7.8
USA1
2012
2016
15.4
12.9
Country2016 rank
average for 2012
2016
12.6weeks
8.5weeks
1 week
final decision
first decision
UK4
2012
2016
15.5
11.8
Germany9
2012
2016
15.0
12.8
Canada10
2012
2016
16.6
12.9
Australia9
2012
2016
15.6
11.8
Iran5
2012
2016
11.5
6.5
Brazil6
2012
2016
11.9
9.7
Japan7
2012
2016
12.5
11.9
China2
2012
2016
10.9
9.7
India3
2012
2016
11.6
7.8
51
USA1
2012
2016
15.4
12.9
UK4
2012
2016
15.5
11.8
Iran5
2012
2016
11.5
6.5
Brazil6
2012
2016
11.9
9.7
China2
2012
2016
10.9
9.7
India3
2012
2016
11.6
7.8
Decision times Quicker in emerging regions — the effect of immediate rejections
52
Country2016 rank
average for 2012
average for 2016
24.4
20.4
time to accept
time to reject
USA1
2012
2016
19.8
17.5
UK4
2012
2016
21.7
17.5
Germany9
2012
2016
18.9
19.4Canada10
2012
2016
21.0
18.1
Australia9
2012
2016
21.2
18.0
Iran5
2012
2016
25.9
19.6
Brazil6
2012
2016
21.8
19.8
Japan7
2012
2016
19.4
18.5
China2
2012
2016
22.8
19.5
India3
2012
2016
26.8
19.9
53
USA1
2012
2016
19.8
17.5
UK4
2012
2016
21.7
17.5
Brazil6
2012
2016
21.8
19.8
Japan7
2012
2016
19.4
18.5
China2
2012
2016
22.8
19.5
India3
2012
2016
26.8
19.9
54
Inter-journal transfer
55
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000
manuscripts transferred
transfers accepted for publication
transfers rejected for publication
transfers still pending
Number of manuscripts (2012–2016)
6.1% accepted
23.5% accept rate
0 100
56
The fate of rejected manuscripts
57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
Cita
tions
Number of documents
37% publishedelsewhere
as of April 2017
cohort ofrejections
2014–2016
58
Reviewer demographics
200,000 100,000 50,000 25,000 Number of reviews completed in 2016 (S1M Prod1)
South Korea33,504(14)
USA776,558(1)
India54,961(10)
Iran18,919(19)
China191,190(4)
UK223,567(3)
Germany87,207(7)
Canada84,476(8)
Brazil30,559(15)
Italy73,886(9)
Spain50,511(12)
Switzerland22,173(18)
France50,630(11)
Netherlands35,884(13)
Sweden26,396(17)
Singapore17,425(20)
Hong Kong15,502(23)
Turkey27,868(16)
Poland15,082(24)
Japan132,266(5)
Belgium16,403(22)
Australia88,365(6)
New Zealand14,860(25)
Denmark16,749(21)
Portugal14,710(26)
No Country295,037(2)
60
How many reviewers are needed?
2011
25
50
75
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Perc
enta
geof
invi
ted
revi
ewer
swho
agre
eto
revi
ew
55.8% in 2011
47.3% in 2016
2011
25
50
75
100
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Perc
enta
geof
invi
ted
revi
ewer
swho
com
plet
eth
eirr
evie
ws
53.6% in 2011
44.4% in 2016
For every reviewers selected...10
were invited
8.5
agreed to review
4.4
completed their review
4.2
63
64
5.5
5.1
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.7
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
4.2
Space Science
Economics & Business
Mathematics
Computer Science
No Research Field
Neuroscience & Behavior
Geosciences
Physics
Engineering
Social Sciences, general
Plant & Animal Science
Microbiology
Psychiatry/Psychology
Clinical Medicine
Molecular Biology & Genetics
Biology & Biochemistry
Chemistry
Pharmacology & Toxicology
Agricultural Sciences
Multidisciplinary
Environment/Ecology
All
Materials Science
4.1
65
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Not categorized Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
20122013201420152016
Tim
efr
omre
view
erag
ree
toco
mpl
etio
n(d
ays)
Slower review in non Impact Factor journals
66
How quickly do they review?
67
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0
Pharmacology & Toxicology
Molecular Biology & Genetics
Biology & Biochemistry
Chemistry
Clinical Medicine
Microbiology
Materials Science
Neuroscience & Behavior
Physics
Space Science
Plant & Animal Science
Agricultural Sciences
Multidisciplinary
Environment/Ecology
Not Categorized
Psychiatry/Psychology
Geosciences
Social Sciences, general
Engineering
Computer Science
Economics & Business
Mathematics
68
Which demographics contribute?
69
0 0.5 1 1.5
Completed reviews/submission
00.511.522.533.544.5
Selected reviewers/submission (including revisions)
Hong KongNorwayPoland
New ZealandPortugal
SingaporeDenmarkBelgium
IranSwitzerland
TurkeySweden
BrazilSouth KoreaNetherlands
SpainFranceIndiaItaly
AustraliaGermanyCanadaJapanChina
United KingdomUnited States
70
The story so far…
336.5
275.2 46.5%
12.917.5
USA1 22.3%
Decision times
Submissions Decision rates
rejectwithoutreviewrate
first decision
2016
acceptrate
weeks to final decisionweeks to final decision
to acceptto reject
Countrysubmission rank
subm
issiongrowth
2012
Decision times
Submissions (’000s) Decision rates (%)
122.8 16.5%
India3
74.3
Decision times
Submissions Decision rates
65.3%
19.97.8
336.2
24.8%
China2 83.5%
183.2
Decision times
Submissions Decision rates
9.7
19.5
70.112.9%
Iran5
38.5
Decision times
Submissions Decision rates
82.0%
19.66.5
100.5 47.3%
United Kingdom4
84.9
Decision times
Submissions Decision rates
18.4%
11.817.5
67.825.8%
Brazil6
28.7
Decision times
Submissions Decision rates
136.0%
9.7
19.8
67.445.2%
Japan7
57.6
11.918.5
Decision times
Submissions Decision rates
16.9%
44.7%
Canada10
50.3
Decision times
Submissions Decision rates
12.918.1
24.2%
40.5
56.243.6%
Australia8
40.4
Decision times
Submissions Decision rates
11.818.0
39.1%
52.747.8%
Germany9
42.7
Decision times
Submissions Decision rates
12.819.4
23.3%
weeks toreview weeks to final decision
reject withoutreview rate
weeks to accept
Acceptrate
change
change
Number of days from submission to acceptance Number of days for reviewers to complete their reviews
21.5 29.0
17.7 25.6
40.8%
-7.1%
18.5%
Not categorized
18.7 28.2
16.3 27.6
34.5%
-12.2%
17.5%
Quartile 4
17.3 28.3
14.9 27.8
31.8% -11.7%
22.9%
Quartile 3
15.6 29.1
13.4 28.1
29.0%
-11.2%
21%
Quartile 1
17.3 29.2
15.2 28.3
33.8%
-4.5%
15.6%
Quartile 2
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Not categorized Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
20122013201420152016
Tim
efr
omre
view
erag
ree
toco
mpl
etio
n(d
ays)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Not categorized Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
20122013201420152016
Tim
efr
omsu
bmis
sion
tofin
alde
cisi
on(d
ays)
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
Not categorized Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
20122013201420152016
Tim
efr
omsu
bmis
sion
toac
cept
ance
(day
s)
Number of days from submission to any final decision
73
Peer Review Publication
resubmission elsewhere
Manuscriptauthoring
Submitteddocument
Peer review
Decision
revision
Acceptedmanuscript
Rejectedmanuscript
Publishedarticle
Publicationjournal
Measuresof impact
‘lost’ impact
Submission growth
across the board — concentrated in
emerging regions and subjects — but
they don’t contribute reviewers
Accept rates higher for gold OA and
content not in SCI-E/SSCI — downward trend
Reject rates lower for gold OA and
content not in SCI-E/SSCI — upward trend
Decision times
vary by subject and faster in upper
impact quartiles
Time to accept consistent
Rejects ~37% appeared in another title
Impact time to final decision quicker in higher quartiles
Accept rates lower in higher quartiles — reject without review rates higher
review quicker in higher quartiles
Ian Potter, Global Business Development Manager, Publishing & Associations | [email protected] | clarivate.com