An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on Washington

StateMarketa McGuire ElsnerUniversity of Washington JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

In cooperation with: Jeremy S. Littell, Edward L. Miles, Dennis P. Lettenmaier

March 5, 2008Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop 2008

Climate science in the public interest

OutlinOutlinee

• Background of WA State climate impacts assessment

• Project framework (sneak preview of results)

• Project objectives

• Relationship between impacts assessment another state climate change initiative

Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment

Funding Source: Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill 1303

Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the Washington State Legislature website:http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/default.aspx

HB 1303 HB 1303 BackgroundBackground

• Legislation signed by Washington Governor in Spring 2007

• Bill’s goal is to reduce the state’s dependence on fossil fuels and to build a clean energy economy via:– Policies and incentive programs to help

businesses, consumers, and farmers have access to cleaner fuels

– Impacts analysis and emission accounting procedures that prepare Washington to respond and prosper as climate changes

Human Health

Agriculture/Economics

SalmonSalmonForest ResourcesForest Resources

Coasts EnergyEnergy

Infrastructure

Water ResourcesWater Resources

A comprehensive A comprehensive state climate change state climate change

assessment that assessment that includes the impacts includes the impacts

of global warmingof global warming

AdaptatioAdaptation / Legal n / Legal BarriersBarriers

Project Project DomainDomain

Conceptual Approach to Assessment

• Integrated assessment of regional climate impacts:

• The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socioeconomic systems affect each other

Source: Snover et al. (2002). Integrating Natural and Social Science for Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology Conference. Louisiana, May 2002.

• Evaluate impacts of climate change into the next century– use IPCC 2007 climate scenarios

– show regional impacts and areas of high and low sensitivity to climate change

– characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) with help from UW Law School

– provide tools for policy makers and user groups

– collaborate with Governor’s Climate Change Challenge team

To be completed December 2008To be completed December 2008

Goals of the Impacts AssessmentGoals of the Impacts Assessment

Data Needs to Support a 21Data Needs to Support a 21stst Century Century Planning Framework Incorporating Planning Framework Incorporating Climate Information and UncertaintyClimate Information and Uncertainty

2 EmissionsScenarios

20 GCMs2

DownscalingApproaches

X X

IPCC Climate Scenarios

Hydrology Modeling

Approach provides ensemble of

variables that can be used to evaluate

impacts of climate change

• Precipitation

• Air Temperature

• Streamflow

• Soil Moisture

• PET

• VPD

• And more!

10.8°F

14.4°F

Changes relative to 1970-1999

7.2°F

3.6°F

0°F

+2.2ºF (1.1-3.4ºF)

+3.5ºF (1.6-5.2ºF)

+5.9ºF (2.8-9.7ºF)

°CProjected Increases in PNW Projected Increases in PNW TemperatureTemperature

Projected Increases in PNW Projected Increases in PNW PrecipitationPrecipitation

Sector Focus Sector Focus PointsPoints

• Hydrology/Water Resources– Impacts to rivers and response of

state’s physical water management infrastructure

– Produce future hydrologic scenarios at over 200 locations in the Pacific Northwest (related project)

• Energy– Impacts to hydropower production

(Columbia River) and regional heating & cooling degree days

• Salmon– Productivity of State’s streams for

salmonids – Regions and conditions under which

salmonid habitat is most vulnerable

• Agriculture/Economics– Impacts on productivity and

sustainability of State’s agriculture, focusing on key crops (tree fruits, grapes, potatoes)

• Forests– Impacts to growth and productivity

of forests and their susceptibility to fire and insect disturbance

• Coasts– Impacts of sea level rise on

structures (inundation and flooding)

– Changes in erosion on bluffs, spits, ocean beaches

Sector Focus Sector Focus PointsPoints

• Infrastructure– Impacts on vulnerable

elements of civil infrastructure (stormwater systems)

– Consider precipitation variability and flood frequency/magnitude

• Health– Impacts of ozone and

particulate matter on childhood asthma

– Heat stress and potential increases in mortality

Sector Focus Sector Focus PointsPoints

Relationship between Relationship between Impacts Assessment Impacts Assessment

and Washington State and Washington State Climate InitiativeClimate Initiative

• Evaluate current and proposed actions to reduce CO2 emissions

• Make recommendations on improved preparedness and adaptation

Draft recommendations CompleteDraft recommendations CompleteFinal report FebruaryFinal report February 20082008

Relationship between Relationship between PAWGs and HB1303 PAWGs and HB1303 SectorsSectors

HighlightsHighlights

• Washington State supports climate change study and linkages between science and decision-making.

• Integrated assessment approach which connects climate predictions to hydrology and other impact sectors.

Climate science in the public interest

The Climate Impacts Group

www.cses.washington.ed/cig

Marketa McGuire Elsnermmcguire@u.washington.edu

More information on the Climate Impacts Group or WA State Climate Impacts Assessment