ipsos mori political monitor - july 2015
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2015 JULY POLITICAL MONITOR 24 JULY 2015
VOTING INTENTIONS
Voting Intention
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
36%
33%
8%
8%
9% 6%
All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention
Conservative lead = +3 Conservative lead = +6
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
37%
31%
9%
8%
10% 5%
Base Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015, all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 748 Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
3
FUTURE LEADERS?
Future Prime Ministers? – Labour contenders
5
6%
3%
5%
7%
11%
13%
17%
20%
19%
23%
19%
20%
15%
14%
17%
14%
21%
16%
17%
13%
28%
30%
24%
26%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Jeremy Corbyn
Liz Kendall
Yvette Cooper
Andy Burnham
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/ nor
Tend to dis-agree Strongly disagree Don’t know
27% 27%
22%
16%
17%
34%
30%
36%
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER
Future Prime Ministers? (among Labour Supporters)
6
10%
6%
11%
14%
16%
16%
26%
29%
19%
22%
21%
21%
19%
15%
13%
11%
15%
19%
12%
8%
22%
22%
17%
17%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Jeremy Corbyn
Liz Kendall
Yvette Cooper
Andy Burnham
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/ nor
Tend to dis-agree Strongly disagree Don’t know
43% 19%
37%
22%
26%
25%
34%
34%
Base: 299 Labour supporters 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER
SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
DAVID CAMERON HARRIET HARMAN NIGEL FARAGE GOVERNMENT
-7.0% swing from June
+2.5% swing from June
-4.5% swing from June
-7 Net -1 Net -13 Net -12 Net SATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 39%
DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 44% DISSATISFIED 51%
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
8 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /ACTING LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
-100
+100
Satisfaction with Party leaders Feb ‘08 – July ‘15
Base: c.1,026 British adults each month
9 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
42%
31%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Ma
r 0
8
Jul 08
Nov 0
8
Ma
r 0
9
Jul 09
Nov 0
9
Ma
r 1
0
Jul 10
Nov 1
0
Ma
r 1
1
Jul 11
Nov 1
1
Ma
r 1
2
Jul 12
Nov 1
2
Ma
r 1
3
Jul 13
Nov 1
3
Ma
r 1
4
Jul 14
Nov 1
4
Ma
r 1
5
Jul 15
CAMERON FARAGE
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
Base: c.1,026 British adults each month
10 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Ne
t sa
tisfa
ctio
n
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
David Cameron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
11 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
42%
49%
8%
July 2015 May 2006 – July 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ma
y-0
6
Oct-
06
Jun
-07
Dec-0
7
Ma
y-0
8
Oct-
08
Ma
r-0
9
Au
g-0
9
Jan
-10
Jun
-10
Dec-1
0
Ma
y-1
1
Oct-
11
Ma
r-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Jan
-13
Jun
-13
Nov-1
3
Ap
r-14
Se
p-1
4
Fe
b-1
5
Jul-
15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 49%
DON’T KNOW 8%
Net = -7
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Base: 312 Conservative supporters 18+, 18th -20th July 2015
12 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
83%
12%
5%
July 2015 May 2006 – July 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ma
y 0
6
Jan
07
Se
p 0
7
Ap
r 08
Oct-
08
Ap
r-09
Oct-
09
Ap
r-10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Jul-
15
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 83%
DISSATISFIED 12%
DON’T KNOW 5%
Net = +71
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Harriet Harman (satisfaction)
13 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY HARRIET HARMAN IS DOING HER JOB
AS ACTING LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
33%
34%
34%
July 2015
SATISFIED 33%
DISSATISFIED 34%
DON’T KNOW 34%
Net = -1
Base: 1,026 British adults; 299 Labour supporters 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
43%
30%
27%
SATISFIED 43%
DISSATISFIED 30%
DON’T KNOW 27%
Net = +13
Labour supporters only
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
Nov-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-15
Jul-
15
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
14 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
31%
44%
25%
July 2015 March 2013 – July 2015
SATISFIED 31%
DISSATISFIED 44%
DON’T KNOW 25%
Net = -13
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Jul-
13
Se
p-1
3
Nov-1
3
Jan
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Jul-
14
Se
p-1
4
Nov-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
r-1
5
Ap
r-15
Jul-
15
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 67 UKIP supporters 18+, 18th–20th July 2015
15 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
83%
13% 3%
July 2015 March 2013 – July 2015
SATISFIED 83%
DISSATISFIED 13%
DON’T KNOW 3%
Net = +70
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
17 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
July 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan
-04
Ma
y-0
4S
ep-0
4Jan
-05
Ma
y-0
5S
ep-0
5F
eb-0
6Jun
-06
Nov-0
6M
ay-0
7S
ep-0
7F
eb-0
8Jun
-08
Oct-
08
Fe
b-0
9Jun
-09
Oct-
09
Fe
b-1
0Jun
-10
Nov-1
0M
ar-
11
Jul-
117
Nov-1
1M
ar-
12
Jul-
12
Nov-1
2M
ar-
13
Jul-
13
Nov-1
3M
ar-
14
Jul-
14
Nov-1
4M
ar-
15
Jul-
15
IMPROVE 42%
STAY THE SAME 26%
GET WORSE 28%
DON’T KNOW 4%
EOI = +14
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
18 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jun
19
97
Jan
19
98
Au
g 1
998
Ma
r 1
99
9
Oct
19
99
Ma
y 2
00
0
De
c 2
000
Jul 20
01
Fe
b 2
002
Se
p 2
002
Ap
r 20
03
No
v 2
003
Jun
20
04
Jan
20
05
Au
g 2
005
Ma
r 2
00
6
Oct
20
06
Ma
y 2
00
7
De
c 2
007
Jul 20
08
Fe
b 2
009
Se
p 2
009
Ap
r 20
10
No
v 2
010
Jun
20
11
Jan
20
12
Au
g 2
012
Ma
r 2
01
3
Oct
20
13
Ma
y 2
01
4
De
c 2
014
Jul 20
15
+14
FUTURE LEADERS?
Future Prime Ministers? – Conservative contenders
20
3%
7%
7%
13%
10%
21%
16%
19%
18%
18%
15%
11%
18%
17%
20%
21%
35%
25%
33%
31%
16%
11%
8%
6%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Michael Gove
Theresa May
George Osborne
Boris Johnson
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/ nor
Tend to dis-agree Strongly disagree Don’t know
23% 53%
32%
28%
13%
52%
42%
53%
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER
Future Prime Ministers? (among Conservative
supporters)
21
4%
14%
17%
20%
12%
31%
28%
27%
18%
16%
15%
8%
26%
17%
23%
26%
22%
13%
11%
16%
16%
8%
7%
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Michael Gove
Theresa May
George Osborne
Boris Johnson
Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/ nor
Tend to dis-agree Strongly disagree Don’t know
45% 34%
47%
45%
16%
42%
30%
48%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER
Base: 312 Conservative supporters 18+, 18th -20th July 2015
SUMMER BUDGET
44%
44%
12%
Satisfaction with George Osborne
23 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY GEORGE OSBORNE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
July2015 June 2010 – July 2015
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jun
-10
Ma
r-1
1
Dec-1
1
Ap
r-12
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-14
Ma
r-1
5
Jul-
15
BB = Before Budget
AB = After Budget
AAS = After Autumn Statement
BB
BB
BB
BB
BB
BB
AAS
AAS
AB
AB BB
BB AB
AB SATISFIED 44%
DISSATISFIED 44%
DON’T KNOW 12%
Net = 0
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
Satisfaction with chancellors – long term trend
Base: c1,000 British adults aged 18+
24 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY XXX IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
% saying ‘satisfied’
66%
44%
67%
52%
45% 45%
34%
39%
44% 42%
37% 39%
36% 37%
18%
31%
17%
24%
28%
38%
34%
52%
44%
56%
45% 42%
48%
52%
34%
41%
55% 57%
48% 46%
49% 47%
42%
32%
28%
36%
40%
36% 38%
28% 27%
47%
43% 44%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ma
r-…
Ma
r-…
Ap
r-7
8
Jul-
80
Ma
r-…
Jun
-83
Ma
r-…
Ma
r-…
Ma
r-…
Mar-
…
Ma
r-…
Ma
r-…
Mar-
…
Ma
r-…
Ma
r-…
De
c…
De
c…
No
v…
De
c…
No
v…
De
c…
Jul-
97
Fe
b-…
Ma
r-…
Ma
r-…
Fe
b-…
Ma
r-…
Jul-
00
Se
p…
No
v…
Ma
r-…
Ap
r-0
2
Apr-
03
Ma
r-…
No
v…
Fe
b-…
De
c…
Ap
r-0
7
Ma
r-…
Ma
r-…
Jun
-10
Ma
r-…
De
c…
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
r-…
Ap
r-1
4
Ma
r-…
Jul-
15
Healey Major Howe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne
45%
38%
17%
Summer Budget
25 AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED ITS SUMMER 2015 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING….?
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Good thing
Bad thing
46%
44%
10%
Don’t know
...for the country
Good thing
Bad thing
...for you personally
Is the 2015 budget seen as good for the country as
previous ones?
26
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED ITS SUMMER 2015 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING FOR THE COUNTRY?
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
47%
69%
39%
47% 48% 46%
35% 37%
45%
40% 42%
28%
32% 34%
23%
29%
20% 23%
27%
56% 57%
46% 48%
52%
65%
37%
45%
25%
54%
33%
48% 46%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Healey Major Howe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne
% Saying Good
27
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
34%
68%
26%
41%
36%
42%
32%
42%
49%
40% 36%
27%
36% 35%
11%
16% 15%
25%
20%
29% 33%
36%
26%
42% 45%
24%
34%
21%
26% 25%
43% 45%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 Healey Major Howe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS SUMMER 2015 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING FOR YOU PERSONALLY?
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
% Saying Good
Is the 2015 budget seen as good for people personally
as previous ones?
AIRPORTS
Support for increasing airport capacity
29 A) SOME PEOPLE THINK THAT SCOTTISH MPS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO VOTE IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS ON ISSUES THAT HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON PEOPLE IN SCOTLAND
Source: Ipsos MORI
July 2015
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
SOME PEOPLE SAY THAT BRITAIN’S AIRPORT CAPACITY SHOULD BE INCREASED IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS BY EITHER BUILDING A NEW AIRPORT OR EXPANDING EXISTING AIRPORTS. OTHER PEOPLE THINK IT SHOULD NOT BE INCREASED IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS. DO YOU THINK BRITAIN’S AIRPORT CAPACITY SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT BE INCREASED?
60%
33%
7% Britain's airportcapacity shouldbe increased
Britain's airportcapacity shouldnot be increased
Don’t know
Airport expansion debate
30 A) SOME PEOPLE THINK THAT SCOTTISH MPS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO VOTE IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS ON ISSUES THAT HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON PEOPLE IN SCOTLAND
Source: Ipsos MORI
July 2015
AND WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU THINK IS THE BEST WAY OF INCREASING BRITAIN’S AIRPORT CAPACITY?
7%
1%
3%
14%
22%
24%
30%
Don’t know
None of these options
Other
Another airport should be expanded
Heathrow should be expanded by building a3rd runway
Gatwick should be expanded by building a2nd runway
A new airport should be built
Base: 635 saying airport capacity should be increased 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
Considerations for new runway
31 A) SOME PEOPLE THINK THAT SCOTTISH MPS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO VOTE IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS ON ISSUES THAT HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON PEOPLE IN SCOTLAND
Source: Ipsos MORI
July 2015
WHEN DECIDING WHERE A NEW RUNWAY SHOULD BE BUILT, WHAT, IF ANY, ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD CONSIDER? WHAT ELSE?
11%
5%
5%
5%
7%
7%
8%
8%
9%
11%
12%
12%
15%
15%
30%
39%
Don’t know
I don’t think a new runway should be built
Accessibility
Meeting the needs of businesses
Transport infrastructure
Being close to a big city
Avoiding built up areas
Local residents/ community/local area
Disruption while it is being built
Impact on traffic congestion
How much pollution it causes
Costs of construction
Support from local residents
Generating jobs and growth in the economy
How much noise created for local residents
Impact on the natural environment
Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
CONSTITUTIONAL ISSUES
33%
33%
26%
19%
11%
16%
11%
13%
14%
17%
Strongly support Tend to support Neither support not oppose Tend to oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know
a) Some people think that Scottish
MPs should not be allowed to vote
in the House of Commons on
issues that have no direct impact
on people in Scotland
b) The Government has proposed
that English MPs should be allowed
a veto in the House of Commons on
issues that only have an impact on
people in England.
English votes For English laws
33 AS YOU MAY KNOW, SCOTLAND HAS ITS OWN PARLIAMENT WHICH MAKES DECISIONS ABOUT ISSUES SUCH AS HEALTH AND EDUCATION.
THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN ENGLAND WHERE ALL ISSUES ARE DECIDED BY MPS FROM ACROSS THE UK IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS.
Source: Ipsos MORI Base: A and B asked of half the sample. 513 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
SPLIT SAMPLE BETWEEN STATEMENTS A AND B
TO WHAT EXTENT WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE SUCH A CHANGE? WOULD YOU…..
2015 POLITICAL MONITOR
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