scottish public opinion monitor: april 2016

April 2016

SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR

3 Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public

Scottish Parliament Voting Intention

(Constituency)

17%

20%

52%

5% 5%

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION ALL LIKELY TO VOTE

SNP LEAD = +32 SNP LEAD = +32

SNP

LABOUR

CONSERVATIVE

LIB DEM

OTHER

HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR CONSTITUENCY VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE

SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW?

Base: All giving a voting intention = 920 . All likely to vote = 743 Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+,

18th-25th April 2016

Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

18%

19%

51%

6% 6%


Source: Ipsos MOR Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

Holyrood- Constituency vote trend IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW, HOW WOULD YOU

USE YOUR FIRST VOTE?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Au

g-0

9

No

v-0

9

Feb

-10

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Feb

-11

Ap

r-11

May-1

1

Au

g-1

1

Dec-1

1

Jan

-12

Jun

-12

Oct

-12

Feb

-13

May-1

3

Sep

-13

Dec-1

3

Feb

-14

May-1

4

Au

g-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan

-15

Au

g-1

5

No

v-1

5

Feb

-16

Ap

r-16

Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other

Base: All certain/likely to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.


Scottish Parliament Voting Intention

(Regional list)

ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION ALL LIKELY TO VOTE

SNP LEAD = +28 SNP LEAD = +26

SNP

LABOUR

CONSERVATIVE

LIB DEM

GREENS

UKIP

Other

HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR REGIONAL VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE

SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW?

Base: All giving a voting intention = 922 . All likely to vote = 744 Data collected among 1,015 Scottish adults 16+,

18th-25th April 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

19%

17%

45%

7%

10% 18%

18%

46%

6%

9%

1% 1% 1% 1%


SATISFACTION WITH PARTY LEADERS AND

GOVERNMENT



Satisfaction with leaders

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE

COUNTRY / DOING HIS/ HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER / FIRST MINISTER/ DEPUTY

FIRST MINISTER?

DAVID CAMERON NICOLA STURGEON JOHN SWINNEY

0% swing from February

-3% swing from February

0% swing from February

-38 Net +36 Net +9% Net SATISFIED 29% SATISFIED 66% SATISFIED 45%

DISSATISFIED 67% DISSATISFIED 30% DISSATISFIED 36%

Base: All. Data collected among 1,015 Scottish adults 16+, 18th-25th April 2016



Satisfaction with leaders

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS

LEADER OF THE XXXX PARTY?

KEZIA DUGDALE RUTH DAVIDSON WILLIE RENNIE PATRICK HARVIE JEREMY CORBYN

-16% swing from February

+7% swing from February

+4% swing from February

+4%

swing from February

+6%

swing from February

-11 Net +15 Net - Net +23 Net -7 Net SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 47% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 44% SATISFIED 39%

DISSATISFIED 44% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 20% DISSATISFIED 46%




-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick HarvieDavid Cameron Nicola Sturgeon Kezia DugdaleJohn Swinney Jeremy Corbyn

Base: All certain/likely to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.

Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS FIRST

MINISTER//PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF SCOTTISH LABOUR/THE SCOTTISH LIBERAL

DEMOCRATS/THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES?



Scottish Government

SINCE THE LAST SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT ELECTION IN 2011, DO YOU THINK THAT THE SCOTTISH

GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT…?

26%

41%

35%

40%

34%

42%

49%

49%

49%

56%

Improving the standard of living for

rich people

Handling public expenditure

Improving your standard of living

Improving the standard of living for

poor people

Managing the economy in Scotland

Good job Bad job



PARTIES AND POLICIES



Strength of Party identity

TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS… “I KNOW

WHAT THE XXXX PARTY STANDS FOR THESE DAYS”?


44%

37%

27%

29%

26%

14%

32%

45%

52%

58%

63%

80%

Agree

Disagree



Party preferences

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY DO YOU THINK…

18%

15%

13%

17%

11%

16%

10%

7%

13%

11%

45%

51%

56%

46%

53%

… would be best at looking after the

interests of people like you

… has the best team of leaders to deal

with the country’s problems

… is the most clear and united about

what its policies should be

… has the best policies for the country

as a whole

… best understands the problems

facing Scotland

Scottish National Party

Scottish Labour Party

Scottish Conservative Party



Tax proposals

I’M GOING TO READ OUT A LIST OF POLICY IDEAS THAT DIFFERENT PARTIES MAY PUT

FORWARD BEFORE THE MAY ELECTION TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT. FOR EACH ONE

PLEASE TELL ME WHETHER YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE THE POLICY

41%

31%

36%

30%

22%

52%

57%

60%

64%

75%

Increase the basic rate and higher rate of

income tax each by 1p in the pound

Set the income threshold at which the

higher rate of income tax begins to be paid

at £43,000 per year plus inflation

Increase the top rate of income tax from

45p to 60p in the pound for those earning

over £150,000 per year

Keep income tax rates in Scotland the same

as they are in the rest of the UK

Increase the top rate of income tax from

45p to 50p in the pound for those earning

over £150,000 per year

Support Oppose

Net Support

+9

+24

+26

+9

Base: All. Data collected among 1,015 Scottish adults 16+, 18th-25th April 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

+53


EUROPE


66%

29%

5% 1%

60% 26%

13% 1%

QA) ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION QA/B COMBINED) ALL GIVING A VOTING

INTENTION

European Referendum voting intention

REMAIN

LEAVE

UNDECIDED

WOULD NOT VOTE

QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?

AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF THE

EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION:

‘SHOULD THE UK REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR SHOULD IT LEAVE THE

EUROPEAN UNION?



49%

39%

8% 3%

European Referendum voting intention

REMAIN

LEAVE

UNDECIDED

WOULD NOT VOTE

QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?

AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF THE

EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION:

‘SHOULD THE UK REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR SHOULD IT LEAVE THE

EUROPEAN UNION?



SCOTLAND

66%

29%

5%

1%

GB

Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 16th – 18th April 2016

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor


Have voters decided yet?

AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE

EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017. HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO

REMAIN/LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR

MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?

76%

23%

1%

DEFINITELY DECIDED

MAY CHANGE MIND

DON’T KNOW



Have voters decided yet?

DEFINITELY DECIDED

MAY CHANGE MIND

DON’T KNOW 54%

44%

1%

Remain a member of EU Leave EU

Base: All saying that they would vote to remain in the EU (618) Base: All saying that they would vote to leave the EU (260)


AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE

EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017. HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO

REMAIN/LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR

MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?


Technical details

This presents the topline results from Scotland.

Results are based on a survey of 1,015 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone

Fieldwork dates: 18th – 25th April 2016.

Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and

public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment

series data

Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the

exclusion of “don’t know” categories

Results are based on all respondents (1,015) unless otherwise stated.

Contact us: Mark Diffley: [email protected];

0131 220 5699

mailto:[email protected]

scottish public opinion monitor: april 2016

News & Politics