the mood of the nation – an ipsos mori briefing

The mood in Britain THE CONTEXT SHAPING THE NEW AGENDA

Gideon Skinner, Research Director Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute @GideonSkinner

3

What forces are shaping public opinion?

What’s the mood of the nation?

What are the challenges facing public services (and charities)?

What wider social trends are important for the future?

4

What concerns us has changed a lot over the last 20 years

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

NHS UNEMPLOYMENT CRIME/LAW & ORDER ECONOMY IMMIGRATION*

*Up until September 2014 the code was race relations/immigration/immigrants

5

And London is a different country….

Base: 9,907 English adults 18+, January – December 2015

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?


34%

33%

33%

33%

22%

21%

19%

18%

16%

16%

15%

39%

29%

44%

18%

11%

12%

15%

16%

7%

Housing

NHS/Hospitals/Healthcare

Economy

Immigration/immigrants

Unemployment

Crime/Law and Order/ASB

Low pay/Fair wages

Poverty/Inequality

Education/Schools

Taxation

Top mentions %

London

Britain

6

Londoners are stressed about it!

Base: 1,000 adults in London 18+, 27 August – 7 September 2015.

To what extent, if at all, do you personally feel that concerns about the cost of your housing cause you stress these days? Do they cause you…

Source: Ipsos MORI / London Councils

23

21 32

22

1 % A great deal

% A fair amount

% Not very much

% None at all

Don’t know

44%

54%

75% of private renters say housing costs cause them a great deal or fair amount

of stress

7

Cameron becomes PM

Under the radar? Poverty/inequality (but public agree something needs to be done on welfare) What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

Sept 1999: Alastair Darling – “one child in

three” living in poverty July 2014:

highest score recorded (18%)

January 2005: Make Poverty History campaign launched

on New Year’s Day


8

Cameron becomes PM

Under the radar? Low pay/minimum wages/fair pay What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015


Highest recorded score (15%)

9

Cameron becomes PM

Under the radar? Europe What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May2015

Treaty of Accession: 10 new EU Member States

France and Holland reject ratification of EU constitution

Lowest score recorded (1%) UKIP come first in

Euro elections


Cameron’s EU membership renegotiation enters final phase;

highest score since June 2005

Context AN UNCERTAIN WORLD

Life is more comfortable compared to the 1970s

1975 2015

96% 96%

71%

43%

Washing machine

ownership

Central heating

Number of products in the average supermarket

47,000 2015

8,948 1975

But we look back with nostalgia….

85%

75%

74%

72%

70%

70%

69%

67%

66%

65%

64%

63%

62%

61%

60%

60%

59%

54%

48%

43%

35%

Turkey

China

S Africa

India

Italy

Brazil

US

Australia

Russia

Poland

Total

Belgium

Argentina

GB

France

S Korea

Canada

Germany

Spain

Japan

Sweden

People led happier lives in the old days when they had fewer problems to cope with

Maximum house prices

£59,700,000

£350,000

1975 2014

£86,000,000

£10,846

Maximum football transfer records

56% agree “there are too

many immigrants in…”

77% agree “the world is changing too fast”

77% agree “the world is an

increasingly dangerous place to live”

CHANGE ANXIETY

16 Thinking about the economic downturn, which of these statements comes closest to your view?

Can’t forget the context of the years since the crash

Base: 1,009 online British adults aged 16-75, 9-11 November 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI/British Future

31%

56%

13%

Even though the recession has been tough, Britain will

be stronger when it gets through it

The recession has been so tough that

Britain will be weaker because of it for years to come

Don't know

17

And the record levels of economic optimism before the election have dissipated…..

17 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL

IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

May

201

0

Jul 2

010

Sep

2010

Nov

201

0

Jan

2011

Mar

201

1

May

201

1

Jul 2

011

Sep

2011

Nov

201

1

Jan

2012

Mar

201

2

May

201

2

Jul 2

012

Sep

2012

Nov

201

2

Jan

2013

Mar

201

3

May

201

3

Jul 2

013

Sep

2013

Nov

201

3

Jan

2014

Mar

201

4

May

201

4

Jul 2

014

Sep

2014

Nov

201

4

Jan

2015

Mar

201

5

May

201

5

Jul 2

015

Sep

2015

Nov

201

5

Jan

2016

-13

Base: 1,027 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016.

2015 GE 2010 GE

18

A better future no longer seems so certain – in the West at least

78%

48%

47%

46%

41%

41%

41%

37%

34%

32%

30%

30%

30%

27%

26%

24%

22%

21%

16%

16%

12%

ChinaBrazil

TurkeyIndia

JapanRussia

S AfricaTotal

ArgentinaSweden

AustraliaGermany

PolandS Korea

USCanada

GBItaly

SpainFrance

Belgium

Better

Total

Great Britain

To what extent, if at all, do you feel that your generation will

have had a better or worse life than your parents’ generation,

or will it be about the same?

1

2

3

4

5

T

7

6

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

82% 52% 50% 51% 47% 42% 42% 42% 40% 40% 40% 38% 35% 40% 29% 33% 36% 34% 25% 25% 24%

Base: 16,039 adults across 20 countries (1,000 GB), online, 3-17 Sept 2013

Total Under 30s

What does this mean for public services?

22 Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

ARE WE GETTING USED TO THE NEW NORMAL?

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 8th – 11th August 2015

8%

8%

25%

15%

49%

39%

10%

37%

8%

2%

November 2012

August 2015

A great deal A fair amount Not very much Not at all Don't know

BIG INCREASE IN THOSE SAYING BY CUTS.

NOT AFFECTED

As you may know, the government has announced a number of spending cuts to help reduce the national debt To what extent, if at all, have you and your family been affected by the cuts so far?

23%

33%

76%

59%

Source: Ipsos MORI

23 © Ipsos Public Affairs PERILS OF PERCEPTION |

ACTUAL LEVELS OF PUBLIC SPENDING WE UNDERESTIMATE THE EXTENT OF CUTS TO

WE ARE ALSO WRONG ON

HOUSING, EDUCATION, TRANSPORT & POLICING BUT DON’T APPRECIATE THE INCREASES AWARDED TO PENSIONERS AND THE NHS.

AVERAGE GUESS 2% CUT OVER 5 YEARS ACTUAL 13% INCREASE IN REAL TERMS

AVERAGE GUESS 3% CUT OVER 5 YEARS ACTUAL 4% INCREASE IN REAL TERMS

24 Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 24

MANY SERVICES

• Eight in ten still satisfied with their GP

• Local services not perceived to have taken a hit in quality in their bread-and-butter street-scene services – lighting, cleaning and bin collection.

HOLDING UP SURPRISINGLY WELL.

25

And many people accepted the need for cuts

13%

31%

28%

4%

24% Don't know/None of these

Spending restrictions and cuts have affected services a lot

without reducing waste

Spending restrictions and cuts have reduced the waste in public services but affected services a

lot

Spending restrictions and cuts have reduced the waste in public

services without affecting services much

AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAVE BEEN A RANGE OF SPENDING RESTRICTIONS AND CUTS ON PUBLIC SERVICES UNDER THE COALITION GOVERNMENT, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING BEST REFLECTS YOUR VIEW?

Base: 2,024 online British adults aged 18-75, 24-28 April 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/Policy Network

Spending restrictions and cuts didn’t reduce waste or affect public

services

44% spending cuts have

reduced waste

59% spending cuts have

affected services

26 Document Name Here | Month 2015 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mar

-02

Oct

-02

May

-03

Dec

-03

Jul-0

4

Feb-

05

Sep-

05

Apr-

06

Nov

-06

Jun-

07

Jan-

08

Aug-

08 Mar

-09

Oct

-09

May

-10

Dec

-10

Jul-1

1

Feb-

12

Sep-

12

Apr-

13

Nov

-13

Jun-

14

Jan-

15

Aug-

15

BUT BIG INCREASES IN CONCERN

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

FOR THE FUTURE OF THE NHS AND POLICE. Thinking about the quality of THE NHS/the way your area is policed over the next few years do you expect it to…?

35 Policing

NHS

% get worse

55

27

And real concern about future risks

Source: Ipsos MORI

Particular concerns for: - services: longer-term,

less visible, not ring-fenced - citizens: heavy service

users, vulnerable, or going through lifestyle transitions

Resourcing (quality/access/

eligibility impacts) “Cost-

shunting”

Impact on staff (training budgets, pace of change,

loss of experience)

Complex/multi-agency delivery

systems

Private/third sector delivery

Social change (aging, popn

growth & immigration,

diversity)

Increased use of

digital/privacy implications

28

Public service leaders say easy changes already made, so looking ahead, challenges even greater More radical approaches require new skills, political will or difficult conversations with users…….

Source: Ipsos MORI/Deloitte

Stop delivering some services Work in partnership with other sectors more

Cut more staff (including frontline)

Make better use of technology

Make better use of staff through more flexible contracts

Enable communities to do more for themselves

Commission more services

Enable other providers to do more

29

And even though 76% say how they are treated is as important as the final outcome, there is a long way to go…

Base: 1,007 British adults 15+; 10-16 July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI/Collaborate

How often, if at all, do you think organisations that deliver public services…?

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%

17%

15%

13%

12%

11%

49%

44%

42%

34%

35%

18%

20%

24%

26%

27%

10%

11%

15%

22%

21%

3%

8%

4%

3%

4%

Always Often Sometimes Hardly ever Never Don't know

… understand your needs?

… work with other public services to give you something they

couldn’t on their own?

… offer you a personalised service?

… listen to your preferences?

… involve you in decisions about how you use the service?

Version 1 | Internal Use © Ipsos MORI

Where do charities fit in?


Becoming more important to our society?

9

21

30 34

40

19

90

78

69 64

57

81

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

%

Base: Adults aged 18+ in England and Wales – 2014 (1163); 2012 (1,142); 2010 (1,150); 2008 (1,008), and 2005 (1,001).

Have you, or any of your close family or friends ever benefited from or used the services of a charity?

% “no”

% “yes”

Source: Charity Commission


Public perceptions around the sector are mixed…..

Source: Telephone survey conducted among 1,163 adults aged 18+ in England and Wales, 2014

Our research for the Charity Commission suggests trust in charities remains relatively high (a mean score of 6.7 out of

10)...

…but also reveals that people increasingly agree that some fundraising methods make them feel uncomfortable (66% vs.

60% in 2010)…

…and there is still a perception that charities spend too much on salaries and administration (58% vs. 59% in 2012)

Presenter

Presentation Notes

CC survey 2012

33 Veracity Index 2015 Generational Analysis | January 2016 | Version 1 | PUBLIC

Ipsos MORI Veracity Index 2015 – charity chief execs less trusted than doctors, teachers – and hairdressers

89% 86%

80% 79%

69% 68% 68%

67% 65%

59% 53%

51% 49%

47% 46%

43% 42%

37% 37%

35% 25% 25%

22% 21%

DoctorsTeachers

JudgesScientists

HairdressersThe Police

Ordinary Man/Woman in the streetClergy/Priests

TV news readersCivil Servants

PollstersLawyers

Managers in the NHSCharity Chief Executives

Trade Union OfficialsLocal Councillors

BuildersBankers

Managers in Local GovernmentBusiness Leaders

JournalistsEstate Agents

Government MinistersPoliticians generally

“Now I will read you a list of different types of people. For each would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?”

% trust to tell the truth

Base: 990 British adults aged 15+, fieldwork 5th December 2015 – 4th January 2016


What are people thinking: large or small?

930 online adults age 16-75; charity turnover information from NCVO UK Civil Society Almanac Source: NPC/NCVO/Ipsos MORI

73%

29%

16% Annual income >£100k

27%

71%

51% Annual income <£10k

Large organisations Small organisations

What comes to mind…

More likely to donate

to…

The sector

“reality”

33% Annual income

between £10k and £100k

16% Annual income >£100k


What mental image leads to more/less trust?

Mean trust score:

Run by volunteers

Publically funded

Not involved in politics

AND AND 6.42

Service provision focus

National organisation

Run by volunteers

AND AND 6.53

International

organisation

Run by professional

s

Awareness raising focus

AND AND 4.64

Base: 136

Base: 385

Base: 99

Awareness raising focus

Run by professional

s

Large organisation

AND AND 4.96 Base: 209

Trust score overall

5.88

36

What does this all mean for public services?

Public services still central to Britons’ values and worldview in difficult times

– Particularly core services (health, education, police) – Equal access and consistency in standards key values – but fairness means

different things to different people

High expectations but no-one thinks services are or will be perfect – Many have frustrations around customer service, inefficiencies, management

while distrust in politicians also creates scepticism – Openness to doing things differently – but risk-averse, need reassurance, and

safeguards in place

So far many yet to feel that cuts have hit service quality – but real concerns about future challenges

– Can public services continue to adapt and evolve before hitting a tipping point?


All data points represent > 200 responses

Source: British Social Attitudes

“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes”

Overall public opinion has moved significantly against further redistribution via welfare in Britain….

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Agree

Disagree




“The government should spend more money on welfare benefits for the poor, even if it leads to higher taxes…”

But analysis shows attitudes to redistribution change across generations - there are clear cohort and period effects

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Pre war (before 1945) Baby boomers (1945-65) Generation x (1966-1979) Generation y (1980-2000)

% Agree

1. Decline in support across board 2. But generations are different – and stay different 3. Younger age groups are less open to further redistribution


“Which, if any, of these would be your highest /second highest priority for extra spending?”

Lack of support for redistribution doesn’t mean Generation Y is a selfish or uncaring generation…

Base: All data points represent>200 responses Source: British Social Attitudes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Child Benefits

Unemployment Benefits

Single parent benefits

Disability benefits

Old age pensions

Data for generation Y (born 1980 onwards)




Do you think of yourself as a supporter of any one political party?

Long term implications for political engagement

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

83 84 85 86 87 89 90 91 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Pre war (born before 1945) Baby boomers (born 1945-1965) Generation X (born 1966-1979) Generation Y (born 1980-)

% Yes




Do you regard yourself as belonging to any particular religion?

And attitudes to other institutions such as religion and the welfare state

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

% Yes





0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Pre-war (bornbefore 1945)

Baby boomers(born between1945 and 1965

Gen X (bornbetween 1966and 1979)

Gen Y (born since1980)

GE2010

Generational divide on immigration has grown… What would you say is the most important issue/other important issues facing Britain today? Immigration/immigrants





Are sexual relations between two adults of the same sex always wrong, almost always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or not wrong at all?

While also helping explain changes in social values – such as gay relationships and gender roles

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22


% Not wrong at all

27%

22%

7%

5%

29%

8%

10%

17%

39%

20%

Baby boomers are seen as the luckiest generation…. 46 AS YOU MAY KNOW, SCOTLAND HAS ITS OWN PARLIAMENT WHICH MAKES DECISIONS ABOUT ISSUES SUCH AS HEALTH AND EDUCATION.

THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN ENGLAND WHERE ALL ISSUES ARE DECIDED BY MPS FROM ACROSS THE UK IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS.

Source: Ipsos MORI Base: 1,021British adults 18+, 17th – 19th October 2015

WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING GENERATIONS, IF ANY, WOULD YOU SAY WILL HAVE HAD THE BEST QUALITY OF LIFE OVER THEIR LIFETIME? AND WHICH WILL HAVE HAD THE WORST?

I’D NOW LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT THE THINGS THAT MAKE UP PEOPLE’S QUALITY OF LIFE SUCH AS ACCESS TO JOBS, HEALTHCARE, EDUCATION, HOUSING, BENEFITS FROM GOVERNMENT, AND SO ON.

People aged between 36 and 49 (Generation X)

People aged between 50 and 69 (baby-boomers)

People aged 70 or over (pre-war generation)

People aged between 15 and 35 (Generation Y)

People aged under 15 (Generation Z)

% BEST QUALITY OF LIFE

% WORST QUALITY OF LIFE

-9

+34

+10

-12

-19

Best minus worst quality of life

14%

11%

26%

17%

14%

19%

30%

8%

9%

27%

While pre-war and Gen Y are the top priorities for help 47 AS YOU MAY KNOW, SCOTLAND HAS ITS OWN PARLIAMENT WHICH MAKES DECISIONS ABOUT ISSUES SUCH AS HEALTH AND EDUCATION.

THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN ENGLAND WHERE ALL ISSUES ARE DECIDED BY MPS FROM ACROSS THE UK IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS.


WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING GENERATIONS, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST PRIORITY FOR GOVERNMENT HELP FOR THEIR QUALITY OF LIFE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS? AND WHICH SHOULD BE THE LOWEST PRIORITY?

NOW THINK ABOUT THE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR PEOPLE IN BRITAIN WHO HAVE GROWN UP IN DIFFERENT GENERATIONS.

People aged between 36 and 49 (Generation X)

People aged between 50 and 69 (baby-boomers)

People aged 70 or over (pre-war generation)

People aged between 15 and 35 (Generation Y)

People aged under 15 (Generation Z)

% HIGHEST PRIORITY

% LOWEST PRIORITY

+13

-8

-18

+19

+5

Highest minus lowest priority

But we aren’t selfish – most of us still put other generations first

48 AS YOU MAY KNOW, SCOTLAND HAS ITS OWN PARLIAMENT WHICH MAKES DECISIONS ABOUT ISSUES SUCH AS HEALTH AND EDUCATION. THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN ENGLAND WHERE ALL ISSUES ARE DECIDED BY MPS FROM ACROSS THE UK IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS.


WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING GENERATIONS, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST PRIORITY FOR GOVERNMENT HELP FOR THEIR QUALITY OF LIFE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS? AND WHICH SHOULD BE THE LOWEST PRIORITY?

NOW THINK ABOUT THE QUALITY OF LIFE FOR PEOPLE IN BRITAIN WHO HAVE GROWN UP IN DIFFERENT GENERATIONS.

18-34 35-49 50-69 70+

Pre-war 23 28 31 26

Baby-boomers

3 9 17 3

Gen X 10 8 3 15

Gen Y 35 26 27 30

Gen Z 23 22 15 14

18-34 35-49 50-69 70+

Pre-war 11 10 14 28

Baby-boomers

18 24 13 11

Gen X 31 27 27 13

Gen Y 9 11 11 13

Gen Z 17 9 16 13

HIGHEST PRIORITY LOWEST PRIORITY

Only going to become more important to understand generational patterns

Need to be careful on assumptions about young:

• Do not see large institutional responses as automatic solutions

• Unstoppable individualising pressures in culture/technology: so much of experience can be filtered/tailored

• But not uncaring or selfish: as active, just in different ways

• Danger of wrong conversation with them – we still don’t fully understand how to react

Generational patterns seen across Europe – UK an extreme case

Real fragmentation in future not class/wealth/inequality OR generation – it’s both/where they interact

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Need to link this and previous slides to explain how demographic change means that cohort effect might drive period effect! NOTE FOR BOBBY: Qual was 3 stages – an initial 12 depths split across the generations, then eight discussion groups (2 with each) then a reconvened workshop.

50

Thank you

[email protected] @GideonSkinner

the mood of the nation – an ipsos mori briefing

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