ipsos mori january 2017 political monitor charts1,016 british adults 18+, 14th –17th october 2016;...
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© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
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1
Ipsos MORIJanuary 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS
3Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
43%
31%
6%
4%
11%5%
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,132 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th January 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends
vote in General Elections = 843. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015
GE.
Voting Intention
42%
33%
6%
5%
10%4%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +9
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +12
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
4Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jul 03
Jan
04
Jul 04
Jan
05
Jul 05
Jan
06
Jul 06
Jan
07
Jul 07
Jan
08
Jul 08
Jan
09
Jul 09
Jan
10
Jul 10
Jan
11
Jul 11
Jan
12
Jul 12
Jan
13
Jul 13
Jan
14
Jul 14
Jan
15
Jul 15
Jan
16
Jul 16
Jan
17
2015 General Election
Miliband
elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: June ‘03 – Dec ‘16
2005 General Election 2010 General Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Brown
as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 5
SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS
6Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
18%
36%
46%
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Paul Nuttall Tim Farron The Government
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,132 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th January 2017 . Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron were asked on a split sample 565 and 567 British adults 18+
respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
36%
56%
8%
45%
39%
16%26%
61%
13%
-4.5%swing from December
2016
-1.5%swing from December
2016
-0.5%swing from December
2016
-4.5%swing from December
2016
-1.5%swing from December
2016
+6 Net -35 Net -18 Net -10 Net -20 NetSATISFIED 45% SATISFIED 26% SATISFIED 18% SATISFIED 23% SATISFIED 36%
DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 61% DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 56%
23%
33%
45%
7Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Jan 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep
15
Oct
15
No
v 1
5
Dec
15
Jan
16
Feb
16
Mar
16
Ap
r 16
May 1
6
Ju
n 1
6
Ju
l 16
Au
g 1
6
Sep
16
Oct
16
No
v 1
6
Dec
16
Jan
17
MAY CORBYN FARRON NUTTALL
45%
26%23%
18%
8Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Net
sati
sfact
ion
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May
9Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2017)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Net
sati
sfact
ion
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
10Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,132 British adults 18+, 13th – 17th January 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction)
45%
39%
16%
January 2017 August 2016 – January 2017
SATISFIED 45%
DISSATISFIED 39%
DON’T KNOW 8%
Net = +6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
11Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 385 Conservative supporters 18+ +, 13th – 17th January 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
78%
14%
9%
January 2017
SATISFIED 78%
DISSATISFIED 14%
DON’T KNOW 9%
Net = +64
August 2016 – January 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
12Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
26%
61%
16%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
SATISFIED 26%
DISSATISFIED 61%
DON’T KNOW 13%
Net = -35
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
January 2017 September 2015 – January 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
13Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
42%
48%
10%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 48%
DON’T KNOW 12%
Net = -6
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 280 Labour supporters 18+, 13th – 17th January 2017
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
January 2017 September 2015 – January 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
14Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
23%
33%
45%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Jan
-17
SATISFIED 23%
DISSATISFIED 33%
DON’T KNOW 45%
Net = -10
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 567 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
January 2017 September 2015 – January 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
15Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PAUL NUTTALL IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
UKIP, THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 565 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017
Paul Nuttall(satisfaction)
December 2016
18%
35%
47%
SATISFIED 18%
DISSATISFIED 35%
DON’T KNOW 47%
Net = -17
January 2017
18%
36%
46%
SATISFIED 18%
DISSATISFIED 36%
DON’T KNOW 46%
Net = -18
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 16
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM
17Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
27%
21%
47%
4%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun
-04
Dec-
04
Jun
-05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Ap
r-07
Oct
-07
May-0
8
No
v-0
8
May-0
9
No
v-0
9
May-1
0
Dec-
10
Jun
-11
Dec-
11
Jun
-12
Dec-
12
Jun
-13
Dec-
13
Jun
-14
Dec-
14
Jun
-15
Jan
-16
Jul-
16
Jan
-17
IMPROVE 27%
STAY THE SAME 21%
GET WORSE 47%
DON’T KNOW 4%
EOI = -20
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017
Economic Optimism Index
January 2017
18Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
May 1
997
Sep
1997
Jan
1998
May 1
998
Sep
1998
Jan
1999
May 1
999
Sep
1999
Jan
2000
May 2
000
Sep
2000
Jan
2001
May 2
001
Sep
2001
Jan
2002
May 2
002
Sep
2002
Jan
2003
May 2
003
Sep
2003
Jan
2004
May 2
004
Sep
2004
Jan
2005
May 2
005
Sep
2005
Jan
2006
May 2
006
Sep
2006
Jan
2007
May 2
007
Sep
2007
Jan
2008
May 2
008
Sep
2008
Jan
2009
May 2
009
Sep
2009
Jan
2010
May 2
010
Sep
2010
Jan
2011
May 2
011
Sep
2011
Jan
2012
May 2
012
Sep
2012
Jan
2013
May 2
013
Sep
2013
Jan
2014
May 2
014
Sep
2014
Jan
2015
May 2
015
Sep
2015
Jan
2016
May 2
016
Sep
2016
Jan
2017
-20
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Brexit
20Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
45%
44%
39%
42%
AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO
THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER
IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016; 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017
Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of
immigration in its future relationship with the EU?
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS
TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET
BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL
OVER IMMIGRATION
Jan 2017
Oct 2016
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Trade unions
22Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME STATEMENTS RELATING TO TRADE UNIONS. FOR EACH ONE,
PLEASE TELL ME, HOW STRONGLY YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH IT
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017
Attitudes to trade unions
44%
18%
12%
24%
33%
18%
13%
24%
7%
26%
27%
17%
5%
19%
29%
13%
Trade unions are essential to protect workers'
interests
Trade unions have too much power in Britain
today
Most trade unions are controlled by extremists
and militants
The Labour Party should not be so closely
linked to the trade unions
STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE
23Political Monitor | January 2017 | Final | Public
I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME STATEMENTS RELATING TO TRADE UNIONS. FOR EACH ONE,
PLEASE TELL ME, HOW STRONGLY YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH IT
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Attitudes to trade unions 1975-2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Oct
-75
Jul-
76
Ap
r-77
Jan
-78
Oct
-78
Jul-
79
Ap
r-80
Jan
-81
Oct
-81
Jul-
82
Ap
r-83
Jan
-84
Oct
-84
Jul-
85
Ap
r-86
Jan
-87
Oct
-87
Jul-
88
Ap
r-89
Jan
-90
Oct
-90
Jul-
91
Ap
r-92
Jan
-93
Oct
-93
Jul-
94
Ap
r-95
Jan
-96
Oct
-96
Jul-
97
Ap
r-98
Jan
-99
Oct
-99
Jul-
00
Ap
r-01
Jan
-02
Oct
-02
Jul-
03
Ap
r-04
Jan
-05
Oct
-05
Jul-
06
Ap
r-07
Jan
-08
Oct
-08
Jul-
09
Ap
r-10
Jan
-11
Oct
-11
Jul-
12
Ap
r-13
Jan
-14
Oct
-14
Jul-
15
Ap
r-16
Jan
-17
% who Agree
TRADE UNIONS ARE
ESSENTIAL TO PROTECT
WORKERS' INTERESTS
TRADE UNIONS HAVE TOO
MUCH POWER IN BRITAIN
TODAY
MOST TRADE UNIONS ARE
CONTROLLED BY EXTREMISTS
AND MILITANTS
THE LABOUR PARTY SHOULD
NOT BE SO CLOSELY LINKED
TO THE TRADE UNIONS
Political Monitor | January 2017 | FINAL | Public | 24
As you may know, most workers in Britain have a legal right to go on strike, but this does not apply to some jobs such as the Police and the Armed Forces. Some people have called for more action to be done to reduce industrial strikes on essential services such as rail and the NHS. Others say it is important that these workers have the same rights to strike as does any other industry, even if that means sometimes these services are disrupted.
For each of the following, please tell me whether you think that people working in this service should have their right to strike limited, or should they be able to strike as any other industry.
Right to strike SHOULD HAVE THEIR RIGHT TO STRIKE
LIMITED
SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRIKE AS ANY
OTHER INDUSTRY
Base: 1,132 British adults 18+, +, 13th – 17th January 2017
48%
37%
35%
49%
61%
62%
NHS medical workers,
e.g. doctors and nurses
Train drivers
School teachers
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
25
January 2017POLITICAL MONITOR