2015POLITICAL MONITOR

2015SATISFACTION WITH THEGOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

3

CONSERVATIVE UKIP GOVERNMENT

+4.5%swing from April 2015

+3.5%swing from April 2015

+4.0%swing from April 2015

+7 Net -18 Net -3 NetSATISFIED 49% SATISFIED 29% SATISFIED 43%

DISSATISFIED 42% DISSATISFIED 47% DISSATISFIED 46%

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOBAS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF UKIP?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

0

-100

+100

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

4

Satisfaction with Party leaders Feb ‘08 – June ‘15HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS

DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF UKIP?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Fe

b 0

8

Jun

08

Oct

08

Fe

b 0

9

Jun

09

Oct

09

Fe

b 1

0

Jun

10

Oct

10

Fe

b 1

1

Jun

11

Oct

11

Fe

b 1

2

Jun

12

Oct

12

Fe

b 1

3

Jun

13

Oct

13

Fe

b 1

4

Jun

14

Oct

14

Fe

b 1

5

Jun

150%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

49%

29%

CAMERON FARAGE

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

5

Net satisfaction with Prime MinistersHOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015

6

David Cameron (satisfaction)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

49%

42%

8%

June 2015 May 2006 – June 2015

Ma

y-0

6S

ep

-06

Ap

r-0

7A

ug

-07

Jan

-08

Ma

y-0

8S

ep

-08

Jan

-09

Ma

y-0

9S

ep

-09

Jan

-10

Ma

y-1

0O

ct-1

0F

eb

-11

Jun

-11

Oct

-11

Fe

b-1

2Ju

n-1

2O

ct-1

2F

eb

-13

Jun

-13

Oct

-13

Fe

b-1

4Ju

n-1

4O

ct-1

4F

eb

-15

Jun

-150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

SATISFIED 49%

DISSATISFIED 42%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = +7

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Base: 329 Conservative supporters 18+, 14th -16th June 2015

7

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

90%

6%4%

June 2015 May 2006 – June 2015

Ma

y 0

6O

ct 0

6M

ay

07

Se

p 0

7F

eb

08

Jun

08

Oct

-08

Fe

b-0

9Ju

n-0

9O

ct-0

9F

eb

-10

Jun

-10

Jan

-11

Ma

y-1

1S

ep

-11

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2S

ep

-12

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3S

ep

-13

Jan

-14

Ma

y-1

4S

ep

-14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-1

50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

SATISFIED 90%

DISSATISFIED 6%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Net = +84

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015

8

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

50

10

20

30

40

50

60

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

29%

47%

25%

June 2015 March 2013 – June 2015

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

SATISFIED 29%

DISSATISFIED 47%

DON’T KNOW 25%

Net = -18

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

9

Nigel Farage (satisfaction among UKIP supporters)

Base: 61 UKIP supporters, 14th -16th June 2015. N.B. small base size indicative only

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

83%

12%5%

June 2015 March 2013 – June 2015

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

r-1

4

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-

14

Se

p-1

4

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-1

5

Ap

r-1

50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

SATISFIED 83%

DISSATISFIED 12%

DON’T KNOW 5%

Net = +71

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

2015ECONOMICOPTIMISM

Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th June 2015

11

Economic Optimism IndexDO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL

IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

June 2015

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Fe

b-0

6S

ep

-06

Ma

y-0

7D

ec-

07

Jun

-08

De

c-0

8Ju

n-0

9D

ec-

09

Jun

-10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

7Ja

n-1

2Ju

l-1

2Ja

n-1

3Ju

l-1

3Ja

n-1

4Ju

l-1

4Ja

n-1

50

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

IMPROVE 42%

STAY THE SAME 28%

GET WORSE 26%

DON’T KNOW 4%

EOI = +16

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

12

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism IndexDO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL

IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Ma

y 1

99

7

De

c 1

99

7

Jul 1

99

8

Fe

b 1

99

9

Se

p 1

99

9

Ap

r 2

00

0

No

v 2

00

0

Jun

20

01

Jan

20

02

Au

g 2

00

2

Ma

r 2

00

3

Oct

20

03

Ma

y 2

00

4

De

c 2

00

4

Jul 2

00

5

Fe

b 2

00

6

Se

p 2

00

6

Ap

r 2

00

7

No

v 2

00

7

Jun

20

08

Jan

20

09

Au

g 2

00

9

Ma

r 2

01

0

Oct

20

10

Ma

y 2

01

1

De

c 2

01

1

Jul 2

01

2

Fe

b 2

01

3

Se

p 2

01

3

Ap

r 2

01

4

No

v 2

01

4

Jun

20

15

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

11

-19-21-27-37-46

-31-30-23-15-6-8-1-43

-12

5

-7

412

-10-5-13-11-14-16-17-13

-6-6-9-2

-29-22

-4

-15

-31

-56

-43

-29-20-21-21

-5

-22-17-27-23-23

-32-40-46-50

-39

-18-24-20-22-26-23-25-27

-20-21-18-22-18-25-22-16

-27-22-26-23-22-19

-11-15-11-20-14-18-25-35-32-27-23

-28-26-29-32-25-33-31

-23-33-27-29-31

-20-20-21-25-33-37

-46-51-47

-60-57-60-57-64-59-58

-35

-51-48-40-40

-29

-2-2

11

-6

16162123

-4

20

671510

-53

-20-21-20-12

-29-37-28

-11-13-23-26-33-32-41-43-48

-35

-22-14-18-23-32-32-27

-9-14-6

-27-22-22-30

-19

-105

202315151819

2523253429253224

1219

51211212616+16

2015EUROPE

14

Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?

Base: 501 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015

IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

October 2014 June 2015

36%

56%

8%

27%

61%

12%

STAY IN GET OUT DON’T KNOW

15

Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?Trend since 1977IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?

Jun

-77

Jun

-79

Jun

-81

Jun

-83

Jun

-85

Jun

-87

Jun

-89

Jun

-91

Jun

-93

Jun

-95

Jun

-97

Jun

-99

Jun

-01

Jun

-03

Jun

-05

Jun

-07

Jun

-09

Jun

-11

Jun

-13

Jun

-15

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

26%

60% 63%

52%49%

53%51%

41%

61%65%

29% 27%36% 35% 32%

39%

49%

27%

Base: 501 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

STAY IN GET OUT

16

EU Referendum question:Should the UK remain an EU member?SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?

Base: 504 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

June 2015

YES NO DON’T KNOW

22%

66%

12%

17

Britain’s future role in EuropeWHICH OF THE OPTIONS BEST DESCRIBES YOUR OWN PREFERENCE FOR BRITAIN'S FUTURE ROLE IN EUROPE?

Base: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Series1 13%17%

20%23%

19%

33%34%

30%28%28%

31%29%

32%29%

24%

14%14%

13%13%

24%

Britain leaving the European Union altogether

Britain’s relationship with Europe remaining broadly the same as at present

Britain returning to being part on economic community, without political links

Britain and other member states of the European Union moving towards closer political and economic integration

Apr ‘96

Nov ‘12

May ‘14

Oct ‘14

Jun ‘15

Apr ‘96

Nov ‘12

May ‘14

Oct ‘14

Jun ‘15

Apr ‘96

Nov ‘12

May ‘14

Oct ‘14

Jun ‘15

Apr ‘96

Nov ‘12

May ‘14

Oct ‘14

Jun ‘15

18

6%

32%

37%

20%

4%

Confidence in Cameron’s ability to get a good EU deal for BritainPLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?

VERY CONFIDENT

FAIRLY CONFIDENT

NOT VERY CONFIDENT

NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT

NO OPINION

Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015

November 2014 June 2015

4%

22%

40%

29%

5%

19

Should all cabinet ministers have to keep to the government’s position on the EU referendum?AND STILL THINKING ABOUT A REFERENDUM ON BRITISH MEMBERSHOP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, DO YOU THINK THAT ALL CABINET MINISTERS SHOULD BE REQUIRED TO SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL

GOVERNMENT POSITION ON BRITISH MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, OR SHOULD THEY BE ALLOWED TO CAMPAIGN FOR THE POSITION THEY BELIEVE MOST, EVEN IT IT’S DIFFERENT TO THE GOVERNMENT’S POLICY?

June 2015

THEY SHOULD BE REQUIRED TO SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT POSITION

THEY SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO CAMPAIGN FOR THE POSITION THEY BELIEVE MOST DON’T KNOW

74%

19%

7%

Source: Ipsos MORIBase: 1,005 British adults 18+, 14th -16th June 2015

2015POLITICAL MONITOR