ipsos mori political monitor · 2020. 9. 23. · satisfaction with leaders and the government:...


VOTINGINTENTION

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | August 20203

Voting Intention:September 2020

All giving a voting intentionHeadline voting intention

Conservative lead = +1Conservative lead = +3

40%

37%

8%

5%

9%

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dems

Green

Other

39%

38%

7%

7%

8%

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dem

Green

Other

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 780. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May

15

Jul 1

5

Sep

15

Nov

15

Jan

16

Mar

16

May

16

Jul 1

6

Sep

16

Nov

16

Jan

17

Mar

17

May

17

Jul 1

7

Sep

17

Nov

17

Jan

18

Mar

18

May

18

Jul 1

8

Sep

18

Nov

18

Jan

19

Mar

19

May

19

Jul 1

9

Sep

19

Nov

19

Jan

20

Mar

20

May

20

Jul 2

0

Corbyn elected(Sept 15)

May as PM(July 16)

Starmer elected(Apr 20)

Headline voting intention:Since the 2015 General Election

4

40%Conservative

%

September2020

Johnson as PM(July 19)

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

37%Labour

General Election

How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

Sep

20


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan

04Ap

r 04

Jul 0

4O

ct 0

4Ja

n 05

Apr 0

5Ju

l 05

Oct

05

Jan

06Ap

r 06

Jul 0

6O

ct 0

6Ja

n 07

Apr 0

7Ju

l 07

Oct

07

Jan

08Ap

r 08

Jul 0

8O

ct 0

8Ja

n 09

Apr 0

9Ju

l 09

Oct

09

Jan

10Ap

r 10

Jul 1

0O

ct 1

0Ja

n 11

Apr 1

1Ju

l 11

Oct

11

Jan

12Ap

r 12

Jul 1

2O

ct 1

2Ja

n 13

Apr 1

3Ju

l 13

Oct

13

Jan

14Ap

r 14

Jul 1

4O

ct 1

4Ja

n 15

Apr 1

5Ju

l 15

Oct

15

Jan

16Ap

r 16

Jul 1

6O

ct 1

6Ja

n 17

Apr 1

7Ju

l 17

Oct

17

Jan

18Ap

r 18

Jul 1

8O

ct 1

8Ja

n 19

Apr 1

9Ju

l 19

Oct

19

Jan

20Ap

r 20

Jul 2

0

Miliband elected(Sept 10)

Corbyn elected(Sept 15)

May as PM(July 16)

Johnson as PM(July 19)

Cameron elected(Dec 05)

Brown as PM(June 07)

Starmer elected(Apr 20)

Headline voting intention:January ‘04 – September ‘20

%

Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019


September2020

40% Conservative37% Labour

8% Lib Dem

The Brexit Party

5% Green1% UKIP

General Election

5

How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?


SATISFACTIONWITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | September 2020

Boris Johnson Keir Starmer The Government

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: September 2020

7

27%

31%

43%

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Satisfied

-9% swing from August 2020

Net= +16

54%

6%

40%

Net= -22Net= -14%-6.5% swing from August 2020

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”


Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his job.as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?

57%

8%

35%

-3% swing from August 2020


Boris Johnson: Satisfaction

Net = -14

September 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-1

9

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-20

Apr-2

0

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

40%Satisfied

6%Don’t know

54%Dissatisfied

July 2019 – September 2020

40%Satisfied

54%Dissatisfied


8

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

40%

6%

54%

Base: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020


Boris Johnson: Satisfaction among Conservative supporters

September 2020

79%Satisfied

3%Don’t know

18%Dissatisfied


9

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jul-1

9

Sep-

19

Oct

-19

Dec

-19

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-2

0

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

79%Satisfied

18%Dissatisfied

79%

3%

18%

Net = +61

July 2019 – September 2020

Base: 305 Conservative party supporters aged 18+, 11-18 September 2020


Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2020)

10

Number of months after becoming prime minister

Net satisfaction

Johnson

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

Blair

Major

Cameron

Johnson

Brown

Thatcher

May


How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?


Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2020)

11

Blair’s gov

Major’s gov

Cameron’s gov

Johnson’s gov

Brown’s gov

Thatcher’s gov

May’s gov Net satisfaction

Johnson’s Gov

Number of months after assuming government

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?


Keir Starmer: Satisfaction

Net = +16

September 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

43%Satisfied

31%Don’t know

27%Dissatisfied

June – September 2020

43%Satisfied

27%Dissatisfied


12

43%

31%

27%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?



Starmer

Corbyn

Blair

Smith

Kinnock

Miliband

Foot

Cameron

Duncan-smith

Hague

Howard

Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2020)

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

Number of months after becoming opposition leader

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

13

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

Starmer


Net = +56

September 2020

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug-

20

Sep-

20

69%Satisfied

18%Don’t know

13%Dissatisfied

June 2020 – September 2020

69%Satisfied

13%Dissatisfied


14

69%

18%

13%

Keir Starmer: Satisfaction amongst Labour supportersAre you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Keir Starmer is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party?

Base: 333 Labour party supporters aged 18+, 11-18 September 2020


ECONOMICOPTIMISM


Economic Optimism Index

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Dec

-07

Apr-0

8Au

g-08

Dec

-08

Apr-0

9Au

g-09

Dec

-09

Apr-1

0Se

p-10

Jan-

11M

ay-1

1Se

p-11

Jan-

12M

ay-1

2Se

p-12

Jan-

13M

ay-1

3Se

p-13

Jan-

14M

ay-1

4Se

p-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Oct

-15

Feb-

16Ju

n-16

Oct

-16

Feb-

17Ju

l-17

Jan-

18Ju

n-18

Dec

-18

Jun-

19D

ec-1

9Ap

r-20

Aug-

20EOI = -45

September 2020 January 2007– September 2020

21%Improve

10%Stay the same


66%Get worse

66%10%

21%

3%66%Get worse

10%Stay the same

21%Improve

3%Don’t know

16

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?


Sep-

20


Economic Optimism Index(1998-2020)

17

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

1998

Oct

199

8

Jul 1

999

Apr 2

000

Jan

2001

Oct

200

1

Jul 2

002

Apr 2

003

Jan

2004

Oct

200

4

Jul 2

005

Apr 2

006

Jan

2007

Oct

200

7

Jul 2

008

Apr 2

009

Jan

2010

Oct

201

0

Jul 2

011

Apr 2

012

Jan

2013

Oct

201

3

Jul 2

014

Apr 2

015

Jan

2016

Oct

201

6

Jul 2

017

Apr 2

018

Jan

2019

Oct

201

9

Jul 2

020

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Net optimism

-45%

Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months?

Sep

2020


LABOUR LEADERSHIP CONTEST

THE CORONAVIRUS



19

The Government’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreakOverall, how well or badly do you think the Government has handled the coronavirus outbreak so far?

Very/fairly well

Very/fairly badly49%

40%

42%

32%35%

44%

40%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20

Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month

March – September 2020


LEADERSAND PARTIES


Leader image:Johnson v Starmer

21

I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…

Keir Starmer

Boris Johnson 42%

21%

36%

43%

29%

25%

27%

50%

43%

31%

44%

30%

46%

27%

68%

30%

67%

58%

43%

30%

32%

37%A capable leader

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement

Understands the problems facing Britain

Out of touch with ordinary people

Has got a lot of personality

Gives me confidencefor Britain’s future

Patriotic

More honest than most politicians

More style than substance

A good representative for Britain on the world stage

Starmer lead +7

Starmer lead +13Starmer lead +7

Starmer lead +9

Starmer lead +12

Johnson lead +42Johnson lead +1Johnson lead +25

Starmer lead -25

Starmer lead -31


Tie


Leader image:Starmer v Corbyn

22


Keir StarmerSept ‘20 20%

27%

37%

36%

19%

25%

45%

43%

25%

20%

21%

42%

21%

36%

43%

29%

25%

27%

50%

43%

31%

44%A capable leader

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement





Patriotic




Starmer lead +23


Starmer lead +22

Tie

Starmer lead -6

Starmer lead -18


Jeremy CorbynSept ‘19

Starmer lead +11


Tie


Leader image:Johnson trend

23


Boris JohnsonSept ‘20

30%

56%

27%

63%

30%

76%

60%

43%

31%

32%

36%

30%

46%

27%

68%

30%

67%

58%

43%

30%

32%

37%A capable leader

Good in a crisis

Has sound judgement





Patriotic





Boris JohnsonSept ‘19


Likeability of party leaders: 2007-2020Which of these statements come closest to your views of … and the … party?

24

Base: c.1000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

36%

54%

45% 47%41% 43%

48%44%

60%

38%

39%

44%

45%

36%29%

35% 36% 37%

30% 31% 30%

37%

46%

32%

23%

51%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020GE2010 GE2015 GE2017

Like the leader of the Labour party

Gordon Brown

David Cameron

Ed Miliband

Theresa May Boris

Johnson

Jeremy Corbyn

Like the leader of the Conservatives

Keir Starmer

GE2019


Likeability of the parties: 2007-2019Which of these statements come closest to your views of … and the … party?

25


29%

43%

39% 37% 35%38%

42% 41%38% 38%

38% 42%

42%38%

39%

45%51% 49% 50%

52%46%

54%57%

49%

38%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020GE2010 GE2015 GE2017

Gordon Brown

David Cameron

Ed Miliband

Theresa May

Boris Johnson

Jeremy Corbyn

Like the Labour party Like the Conservative party

KeirStarmer

GE2019


Likeability of the Labour party and its leaders: 2007-2019Which of these statements come closest to your views of … and the Labour party?

26


36%29%

35% 36% 37%

30% 31% 30%

37%

46%

32%

23%

51%

38% 39% 39%45%

51% 49% 50%52%

46%

54%57%

49%

38%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

GE2010 GE2015 GE2017

Like the Labour party Like the leader of the Labour party

Gordon Brown Jeremy CorbynEd MilibandGE2019

Keir Starmer


Likeability of the Conservative party and its leaders: 2007-2019Which of these statements come closest to your views of … and the Conservative party?

27


36%

54%

45% 47%41% 43%

48%44%

60%

39%

44% 45%

29%

43%39% 37% 35%

38%42% 41%

38% 38%38% 42% 42%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

GE2010 GE2015 GE2017

Like the Conservative party Like the leader of the Conservatives

David Cameron Theresa May Boris JohnsonGE2019


Likeability: Boris Johnson and the Conservative partyWhich of these statements come closest to your views of Boris Johnson, and the Conservative party?

28

30%I like Boris Johnson and

I like the Conservative party

5%Don’t know

15%I like Boris Johnson but I do not

like the Conservative party

12%I do not like Boris Johnson but

I like the Conservative party

39%I do not like Boris Johnson and I

do not like the Conservative party

Boris Johnson and the Conservative party

Total like Boris Johnson 45%

Total do not like Boris Johnson 51%

Total like the Conservative party 42%

Total do not like the Conservative party 54%

Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,013 British adults 18+, 11-18 September 2020


Likeability: Keir Starmer and the Labour partyWhich of these statements come closest to your views of Keir Starmer, and the Labour party?

29

26%I like Keir Starmer andI like the Labour party

14%Don’t know

25%I like Keir Starmer but I do not

like the Labour party

12%I do not like Keir Starmer but

I like the Labour party

23%I do not like Keir Starmer and I

do not like the Labour party

Keir Starmer and the Labour party

Total like Keir Starmer 51%

Total do not like Keir Starmer 35%

Total like the Labour party 38%

Total do not like the Labour party 48%



Likeability: Labour leader and partyWhich of these statements come closest to your views of Keir Starmer/Jeremy Corbyn, and the Labour party?

30


49%

23%

4%

44%

29%

3%

20%

38%

51%

14%

23%

12%

25%

26%I like the leader and the Labour party

I like the leader but do like not the Labour party

I do not like the leader but do like the Labour party

I do not like either the leader or the Labour party

Don’t know

Total “like” the Labour leader

Total “like” the Labour party

Keir StarmerSept ‘20

Jeremy CorbynNov ‘19

Gideon SkinnerResearch [email protected]

Keiran PedleyResearch [email protected]

Cameron GarrettSenior Research [email protected]

Ipsos MORISeptember 2020 Political Monitor

For more information

Dylan SpielmanResearch [email protected]

Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Voting Intention:�September 2020Headline voting intention:�Since the 2015 General Election�Headline voting intention:�January ‘04 – September ‘20�Slide Number 6Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: September 2020�Boris Johnson: �Satisfaction�Boris Johnson: �Satisfaction among Conservative supporters�Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2020)�Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2020)�Keir Starmer: �Satisfaction�Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders �(1980 – 2020)�Keir Starmer: �Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters�Slide Number 15Economic Optimism Index�Economic Optimism Index�(1998-2020)�Slide Number 18The Government’s handling of the Coronavirus outbreakSlide Number 20Leader image:�Johnson v Starmer�Leader image:�Starmer v Corbyn�Leader image:�Johnson trend�Likeability of party leaders: 2007-2020�Likeability of the parties: 2007-2019�Likeability of the Labour party and its leaders: 2007-2019�Likeability of the Conservative party and its leaders: 2007-2019�Likeability: Boris Johnson and the Conservative party�Likeability: Keir Starmer and the Labour party�Likeability: Labour leader and party�Slide Number 31

ipsos mori political monitor · 2020. 9. 23. · satisfaction with leaders and the government:...

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