beyond the bubble: ipsos mori at the conservative party conference 2011
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Ben Page's presentation at our fringe event at the 2011 Conservative Party ConferenceTRANSCRIPT
Conservative Conference 2011Ben Page, Chief Executive, Ipsos MORI
Is 2015 in the bag?
Reasons to be cheerful
4
37%
13%
35%
2010 General Election
Although Labour have a lead, you have broadly kept your core supportHow would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
5Labour’s support has mainly come from dissatisfied LibDems
Base: British adults 18+ voting/with voting intention Source: Ipsos MORI Election/Monitor aggregates
6And satisfaction is falling – though not unusually soHow satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Net
sat
isfie
d
1992
19831987
1997
2001
2005
20101979
General Election
Cameron is a strong leader
8Half are dissatisfied with his performance –though again that’s not unusualHow satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each monthNote: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
MAJOR THATCHER
BLAIR
BROWN
CAMERON
9
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011
59%
47%
45%
54%
57%
39%
57%
37%
24%
38%
52%
43%
33%
37%
31%
22%
31%
49%
58%
37%
33%
MilibandCameron
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Likeable
Clegg
Has sound judgement
Puts the interest of the country above those of his own party
Has a clear vision for Britain
And he leads on key Prime Ministerial qualities
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
10
63%
52%
43%
41%
52%
52%
MilibandCameron
(although also seen as most out of touch – as was Blair…)I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to…
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Clegg
Out of touch with ordinary people
More style than substance
11
50%
44%
50%
50%
34%
38%
45%
30%
23%
Labour partyConservative party
And the party is also seen as most fit to govern….
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Liberal Democrat party
Fit to govern
12But also some negatives – you are seen as extreme
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Keeps its promises
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Looks after the interests of people like me
Out of date
24%
64%
49%
28%
32%
42%
24%
64%
55%
22%
41%
45%
16%
65%
65%
16%
32%
41%
Labour partyConservative party Liberal Democrat party
Potential banana skins
1. The economy
14
Economy
Unemployment
The economy is the number one issue
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
Crime
ImmigrationNHS
Europe
15The British are among the world’s leading pessimists…Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
*Note that the total global average does not include this month’s two ad-hoc countries: Greece and Ireland. Source: Ipsos Global @dvisor, 19,755 online interviews with16/18–64 yr olds August 2011
16
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 18th - 20th February 2011
Very concerned
Don’t know
Not very concerned
Fairly concerned
Not at all concerned
Widespread concern about the effects of cuts
And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12 months?
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
17
It is better to cut spending more slowly, to reduce the impact on public services and the economy
It is important to cut spending quicklyeven if this means immediate job losses, because it will be better for the economy in the long term
Neither
Don’t know
March 2011
And most prefer cuts to be slow rather than fast
And which of these comes closest to your opinion about how the government goes about reducing the deficit?
Base:1,000 British adults 18+, 11-13 March 2011 Source: Economist/Ipsos MORI
18And yet you do hold the lead on the number one issueWhich party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
33%
23%
8%
Why no party won the GE outright?
19…and will get some credit if it improves
If the British economy improves in the next 12 months, who do you think will be mostly responsible?
Base: 505 British adults 18+, 20th-24th May 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
The Conservative Party
The Liberal Democrat Party
The state of the global economy
Conservatives and Lib Dems together
The previous Labour government
The banks
Don’t know
Other
33%
20- But share the blame if it gets worse
If the British economy gets worse in the next 12 months, who do you think will be mostly to blame?
Base: 503 British adults 18+, 20th-24th May 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
27%The Conservative Party
The Liberal Democrat Party
The state of the global economy
Conservatives and Lib Dems together
The previous Labour government
The banks
Don’t know
Other
2. The Coalition
22Brits haven’t fallen in love with the idea of coalitionsDo you think it is a good think or a bad thing for the country that no party achieved an overall majority?
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+ Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Good thingDon’t know
Bad thing
May 2010
Good thingDon’t know
Bad thing
April 2011
23Tensions in the Coalition?
From what you know so far, which of these comes closes to your view?
Base: 1000 British adults 18+, 15th-17th April 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI/Reuters Political Monitor
The new government is a genuine coalition in which decisions are made jointly between the Conservatives and the Liberal DemocratsThe Conservatives are making most of the decisions in the new government
Don’t knowNeither
Con voters in 2010
LibDem voters in
2010
3. Still the nasty party?
25The party is the most disliked….
Base: 1,162 British adults 18+, 21st - 24th January 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Conservative LibDemLabour
Like the party
Don’t like the party
26
Conservatives
Labour
March 2010
Conservatives
Labour
June 2011
Debate on reform didn’t help trust on the NHS
Which party do you think has the best policies on health care, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
March 2010 - Base: 1,533 British adults 18+, 19th - 22nd June 2010June 2011 - Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 17th - 19th June 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
27
Will hit rich people hardest
Will affect everyone equally
Don’t Know
Will hit poor people hardest
People don’t think ‘we are all in it together’
Do you think that the government’s plans to reduce the national deficit will hit rich people or poor people hardest, or will they affect everyone equally?
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 11th - 13th March 2011 Source: Ipsos MORI
28
27%
46%
42%
37%
22%
22%
25%
28%
10%
7%
6%
8%
Labour partyConservative party
While you have your traditional strengths….
Which party do you trust most to… the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Restore faith in the political system
Liberal Democrat party
Encourage individuals to take responsibility for themselves
Preserve law and order
Promote family values
29
22%
20%
23%
28%
34%
39%
13%
18%
11%
So Labour has theirs…..
Which party do you trust most to…the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Heal the divisions in British society
Be fair to all sections of society
Give children and young people a good start in life
Labour partyConservative party Liberal Democrat party
30
WomenMen
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
And women are particularly critical – less likely to mention good points…..I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the Conservative party?
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011 Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
31
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011
WomenMen
Will promise anything to win votes
Divided
Extreme
Out of date
…and more likely to mention negative ones
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the Conservative party?
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
32Reasons to be cheerful?
Credible as party of government, best leader, and traditional strengths – appealing to heads rather than hearts right for this time?
Despite concerns, people still trust you to make the decisions on the economy (so far)
But all depends on the economy: if it gets worse and cuts really start to bite – or even if it just takes a long time - what other positives do you have to offer?
Thank youBen Page, Ipsos [email protected] 7347 3000