beyond the bubble: ipsos mori at the labour party conference
Post on 21-Oct-2014
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Gideon Skinner’s presentation at our fringe event at the 2011 Labour Party Conference co-hosted by ReutersTRANSCRIPT
Labour Party Conference 2011
Gideon Skinner, Ipsos [email protected]
Is ‘good’good enough?
A quick recap….2010…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80%
Base : c. 1,000 - 2,000 British adults 18+ each survey Source: Ipsos MORI
But was it inevitable? …Time for a change?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80%
Base : c. 1,000 - 2,000 British adults 18+ each survey Source: Ipsos MORI
BLAIR BROWN
But was it inevitable? …Time for a change?
So where are we now?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May1997
May1998
May1999
May2000
May2001
May2002
May2003
May2004
May2005
May2006
May2007
May2008
May2009
May2010
May2011
Economy
Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index
What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?
Unemployment
Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home
The economy is the number one issue
8
The British are amongst the world’s leading pessimists…
Looking ahead 6 months from now, do you expect the economy in your local area to be much stronger, somewhat stronger, about the same, somewhat weaker, or much weaker than it is now?
*Note that the total global average does not include this month’s two ad-hoc countries: Greece and Ireland.
9
Net
sat
isfie
d
1992
1983
The government isn’t pulling up any trees…
1987
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to May 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the Government is running the country?
1997
2001
2005
20101979
General Election
Net
sat
isfa
ctio
n
MAJOR
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?
THATCHER
Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
BLAIR
BROWNBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month
CAMERON
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
…and most are dissatisfied with Cameron (and Clegg)
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter
37%
How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
13%
35%
2010 General Election
…and yet Labour have only a small lead in the polls
Net
sat
isfie
d
HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
HOWARD (2003-2005)
Satisfaction with Miliband
Number of months from becoming leader
CAMERON (2005-2010)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR (1994-1997)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Note: methods change for Cameron; see below
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month;
MILIBAND (2010-2011)
Net
sat
isfie
d
HAGUE (1997-2001)DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)
HOWARD (2003-2005)
Satisfaction with Miliband – where will it go?
Number of months from becoming leader
CAMERON (2005-2010)
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?
BLAIR (1994-1997)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorNote: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone
Note: methods change for Cameron; see below
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month;
MILIBAND (2010-2011)
35%
38%
20%
6%1% Very concerned
Don’t know
Not very concerned
Fairly concerned
Not at all concerned
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
And how concerned, if at all, are you about the effects of the cuts on you and your family in the next 12 months?
Widespread concern about the effects of cuts
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 18th - 20th February 2011
25%
70%
3%2%
And which of these comes closest to your opinion about how the government goes about reducing the deficit?
It is important to cut spending quicklyeven if this means immediate job losses, because it will be better for the economy in the long term
It is better to cut spending more slowly, to reduce the impact on public services and the economy
Don’t know
Neither
And most prefer cuts to be slow rather than fast
Source: Economist/Ipsos MORI
March 2011
Base:1,000 British adults 18+, 11-13 March 2011
But Labour are still getting a lot of the blame
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
If the British economy gets worse in the next 12 months, who do you think will be mostly to blame?
Base: 503 British adults 18+, 20th-24th May 2011
The Conservative Party
The Liberal Democrat Party
The state of the global economy
Conservatives and Lib Dems together
The previous Labour government
The banks
Don’t know
Other
And the Conservatives hold the lead on the number one issue
Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?
33%
23%
8%
Not quite hitting the spot?
15
5
25
9
6
19
16
28
4
8
21
5
Ed is no more red than Dave is blue….Some people describe their political views as being left wing or right wing. How would you describe your own views, would you say they are…? And how would you describe..?
% Left of centre
% Right wing% Right of centre% Left wing
Your own views
The views ofDavid Cameron
% Centre
The views ofEd Miliband
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,009 British adults 18+, 15th - 17th October 2010“Don’t knows” not shown
33
14
23
12
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… MilibandCameron
His image has improved on some key aspects…
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Clegg
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011
+9
+11
+12
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… MilibandCameron
But still trails Cameron on key leadership qualities
A capable leader
Good in a crisis
Clegg
Has sound judgement
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Has a clear vision for Britain
Base: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to… MilibandCameron
But still trails Cameron on key leadership qualities
A capable leader
Understands the problems facing Britain
Good in a crisis
Likeable
Clegg
Has sound judgement
Out of touch with ordinary people
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Puts the interest of the country above those of his own party
Has a clear vision for Britain
More style than substanceBase: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Labour partyConservative party
Keeps its promises
Understands the problems facing Britain
Liberal Democrat party
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011
Looks after the interests of people like me
Labour are the most ‘liked’ party
Public sector: 42% Lab, 25% ConPrivate sector: 38% Lab, 37% Con
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Labour partyConservative party
Has a good team of leaders
Liberal Democrat party
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011
Fit to govern
But not yet ready for government?
I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the… Labour partyConservative party
Keeps its promises
Will promise anything to win votes
Understands the problems facing Britain
Has a good team of leaders
Liberal Democrat party
Divided
Extreme
Source: Reuters/Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,008 British adults 18+, 10th - 12th September 2011
Looks after the interests of people like me
Fit to govern
Out of date
But not yet ready for government?
So what’s missing?
+12 +11
+18
+12 +13
+3
+10 +10+13 +12
-11-14
-16 -16
-11
-6
-16
-11-13
-9
-3-1
-7
14
1 0
-2-4 -3
Men Women 18-34 35-54 55-64 65+ AB C1 C2 DE
Where is your vote coming from?
Source: Ipsos MORI Election/Monitor aggregatesBase: British adults 18+ voting/with voting intention
You have time before the election, but…
You can’t just rely on concern about the economy –satisfaction with the government may well fall, but need to be convinced that you are a better alternative
Have you reached the limits of support from those (core vote and unhappy LibDems) who don’t believe in what the government is doing?
You now need to persuade Con-Lab floating voters – from all social groups - that you have something to offer their head as well as their heart
Gideon Skinner, Ipsos [email protected] 7347 3000